食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 8 月 26 日 002304.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 72.16 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 相关研究报告 《洋河股份》20241105 《洋河股份》20240430 《洋河股份》20231102 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 食品饮料：白酒Ⅱ 证券分析师：邓天娇 (8610)66229391 tianjiao.deng@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519080002 洋河股份 公司持续深度调整，静待改革成效显现 洋河股份 2025 年半年报业绩点评：1H25 公司报表持续出清，公司仍处于深度调整 期，维持 买入 评级。 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (11.2) 3.8 6.5 (5.5) 相对深圳成指 (31.8) (5.8) (12.5) (54.6) 发行股数 (百万) 1,506.45 (14%) (1%) 11% 24% 36% 49% Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Chongqing Brewery with a target price of RMB 61.00, based on a current price of RMB 55.26 [2][6]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was RMB 8.839 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.24% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 865 million, down 4.03% year-on-year [3][11]. - The company demonstrated strong operational resilience despite facing pressure in Q2, where revenue was RMB 4.484 billion, down 1.84% year-on-year, and net profit was RMB 392 million, down 12.70% year-on-year [3][11]. - Regional performance varied, with the Northwest region showing growth, while the Southern region faced significant pressure [3][11]. Revenue and Profitability - Total sales volume in H1 reached 1.8008 million kiloliters, up 0.95% year-on-year, outperforming the industry average [4][12]. - The average ton price for H1 was RMB 4,779, down 1.14% year-on-year, with high-end products showing slight revenue growth [4][12]. - Gross margin improved to 49.83% in H1, up 0.61 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower tonnage costs [5][13]. Cost Management and Tax Impact - Cost optimization efforts led to a gross margin increase, but a significant rise in the corporate income tax rate from 20% to 27.2% negatively impacted net profit [5][13]. - The net profit margin for H1 was 9.8%, down 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 showing a further decline to 8.7% [5][13]. Investment Recommendations and Forecasts - The report suggests that despite short-term challenges, the company's fundamentals are expected to stabilize, with a high dividend payout ratio and steady expansion of the dealer network [6][14]. - EPS estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at RMB 2.42, RMB 2.56, and RMB 2.74, respectively, with a 25x PE multiple applied for 2025 [6][14].