博汇纸业（600966） 白卡龙头迎周期拐点，整合预期打开成长空间 西南证券研究院 轻工研究团队 2026年2月 核心观点 1 推荐逻辑：1）白卡纸行业供给增长放缓，供应压力缩减，行业的供需格局有望边际改善，吨盈利或迎 来触底回升；2）需求端看，高端白卡及白卡出口的需求亮眼，同时在咖啡茶饮等增量需求支撑下，预 计需求端仍将保持平稳增长态势；3）博汇纸业作为国内白卡纸龙头，背靠全球浆纸龙头金光集团，成 为其唯一A股上市平台，在同业竞争资产整合完成后，公司的供应链实力进一步增强，有望带来盈利弹 性的充分释放。 行业盈利触底，供给增长放缓，供需格局有望改善。过去几年行业供给大幅释放，供需失衡导致白卡纸 价一度跌至近4000元/吨，纸厂盈利显著承压。进入25年下半年，"反内卷"倡议下龙头停机供给收缩 ，新产能投产速度明显放缓，纸价从25Q4起触底反弹，浆价目前仍在低位盘整，吨纸盈利有望逐步回 升。未来供给结构持续优化，集中度提升，龙头优势进一步夯实。 以纸代塑趋势不减，结构性机会带动消费量增长趋稳。虽然消费需求的暂时疲弱对白卡纸需求形成一定 压制，但考虑到以纸代塑的政策支持、茶饮放量带动食品级白卡需求增长、白卡出口保 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Bohui Paper Industry [4]. Core Insights - The white card paper industry is expected to see a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics as supply growth slows down, potentially leading to a rebound in profitability per ton [4]. - Demand for high-end white card paper and exports remains strong, supported by incremental demand from coffee and tea beverages, indicating stable growth in the demand side [4]. - Bohui Paper, as a leading player in the domestic white card paper market, benefits from its backing by the global pulp and paper giant, Golding Group, enhancing its supply chain capabilities and profitability potential [4]. Company Overview - Bohui Paper Industry, established in 1994 and listed in 2004, is a leading white card paper manufacturer in China. The company was acquired by Golding Group in 2020, becoming its only A-share listed platform for domestic pulp and paper assets [10][12]. - The company focuses on various paper products, including white card paper, cultural paper, boxboard, and gypsum face paper, with white card paper being its core product [10][12]. - Bohui has production bases in Shandong and Jiangsu, continuously optimizing its product structure and expanding into high-value markets to increase market share [10][12]. Industry Analysis - The white card paper industry is currently experiencing a cyclical bottom, with expectations for marginal improvement in profitability as supply growth slows and demand stabilizes [4][36]. - The industry has faced significant supply-demand imbalances in recent years, leading to price declines, but recent initiatives to reduce supply and improve efficiency are expected to support price recovery [4][36]. - The trend of replacing plastic with paper continues to drive demand for white card paper, particularly in food packaging and environmentally friendly applications [39][42]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits for Bohui Paper to be CNY 186 million, CNY 408 million, and CNY 551 million for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 54x, 25x, and 18x [4].

分析师 1: 好的。那个各位投资者大家下午好，欢迎大家参加我们今天策略会一个线上交流那么本场 是这个荣盛环保的一个线上交流。我们今天非常有幸的邀请到了公司的董秘胡总，以及财 务总监沈总来跟我们交流。那么首先我们还是想先请胡总，就是您这边能否先简单对我们 25 年或者是说四季度的一个基本面进行一个更新，以及我们以及我们这个 2026 年我们公 司的一些新的一些这个想法。 荣盛环保董秘胡总: 好的，王老师，您好。各位投资者大家下午好，非常感谢华福证券给我们这样一个交流的 平台。那我们公司，主营业务，是主要从事牛皮箱板纸、瓦楞原纸等再生环保纸产品以及 瓦楞纸板纸箱的生产制造，主要处于我们整个行业产业链的一个中游。那应该讲 2025 年 四季度来讲，整个的整体经济形势，就是按照我们 25 年的一个整体的一个趋势，还是大 体趋势是不变的。那具体的，我们在四季度整体的价格上面，还是稍微有一些。略有向好 的一些趋向。所以在整个的一个我们库存管控，第二个我们产品的一个投放市场上面，在 季度整体形势还是相对还是比较乐观的。 大体情况是这样。那这，至于我们 2026 年的一个，我们讲我们公司从整个的经营目标来 讲，我们 25 年 ...

Group 1 - The stock price of Sun Paper Industry fell by 5.11% to 15.96 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 354 million CNY and a turnover rate of 0.78%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 44.601 billion CNY [1] - Sun Paper Industry, established on April 26, 2000, and listed on November 16, 2006, is located in Yanzhou District, Jining City, Shandong Province. The company specializes in the production and sales of various paper products, including kraft linerboard, double offset paper, coated paper, and dissolving pulp [1] - The revenue composition of Sun Paper Industry includes kraft linerboard (27.32%), double offset paper (21.99%), coated paper (10.55%), and other paper products (10.39%), among others [1] Group 2 - Huatai Baoxing Fund holds a significant position in Sun Paper Industry, with its Huatai Baoxing Value Growth A fund (012132) owning 115,000 shares, accounting for 2.88% of the fund's net value, making it the eighth largest holding [2] - The Huatai Baoxing Value Growth A fund was established on November 10, 2021, with a latest scale of 58.8295 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 5.4%, with a one-year return of 21.15% [2] - The fund manager, Shang Shuohui, has been in the position for 8 years and 318 days, with the fund's total asset size at 847 million CNY. The best return during his tenure is 190.74%, while the worst return is -38.16% [3]

Core Viewpoint - Sun Paper Industry's stock has shown a modest increase in price and trading activity, reflecting a stable market position despite a slight decline in revenue year-on-year [1][2]. Company Overview - Sun Paper Industry, established on April 26, 2000, and listed on November 16, 2006, is located in Yanzhou District, Jining City, Shandong Province. The company specializes in the production and sale of various paper products, including mechanical paper, paper products, wood pulp, and paperboard [1]. - The company's revenue composition includes: 27.32% from corrugated boxboard, 21.99% from double offset paper, 10.55% from coated paper, and other categories contributing smaller percentages [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Sun Paper Industry reported a revenue of 28.936 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.58%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.66% to 2.5 billion yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 4.915 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.236 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Sun Paper Industry was 35,500, a decrease of 10.96% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 12.31% to 78,181 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 47.7596 million shares, an increase of 198,300 shares from the previous period. Other notable shareholders include Zhongtai Xingyuan Flexible Allocation Mixed A and Southern CSI 500 ETF, with varying changes in their holdings [3].

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Environmental Protection is a significant player in the domestic recycled packaging paper industry, focusing on the production of recycled packaging paper and related products, with a full industry chain advantage [1] Group 1: Business Performance - As of Q3 2025, Rongsheng Environmental Protection reported revenue of 1.609 billion yuan, ranking 9th in the industry, with the industry leader, Sun Paper, generating 28.936 billion yuan [2] - The net profit for the same period was 171 million yuan, placing the company 2nd in the industry, while the industry average net profit was -37.8 million yuan [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - The asset-liability ratio for Rongsheng Environmental Protection was 56.74% in Q3 2025, slightly below the industry average of 56.77% [3] - The gross profit margin was reported at 12.52%, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.28% [3] Group 3: Executive Compensation - The chairman, Feng Shengyu, received a salary of 765,400 yuan in 2024, an increase of 247,600 yuan from 2023 [4] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 13.60% to 16,600 [5] - The average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder decreased by 11.97% [5]

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Environmental Protection's stock price increased by 5.91% to 13.45 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 3.667 billion CNY as of October 31 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Zhejiang Rongsheng Environmental Protection Paper Co., Ltd. was established on November 9, 1998, and listed on January 17, 2017 [1] - The company operates in the midstream of the paper industry, focusing on the production of recycled packaging paper products such as kraft boxboard and corrugated paper [1] - The revenue composition of the company includes: 96.05% from sales of raw paper and paper products, 3.58% from steam sales, 0.33% from waste and sludge treatment fees, and 0.04% from steam pipeline interface fees [1] Group 2: Fund Holdings - Huafu Fund has a significant holding in Rongsheng Environmental Protection, with its Huafu Craftsmanship Mingxuan One-Year Holding Period Mixed A Fund (014706) holding 167,100 shares, accounting for 3.86% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has generated an estimated floating profit of approximately 125,300 CNY today [2] - The fund was established on March 25, 2022, with a current scale of 31.4134 million CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 8.31% [2] Group 3: Fund Manager Performance - The fund manager Chen Qiming has a tenure of 11 years and 39 days, with the fund's total asset size at 1.806 billion CNY and a best return of 332.41% during his tenure [3] - Wang Yiwei, the co-manager, has a tenure of 4 years and 4 days, managing assets of 496 million CNY, with a best return of 92.98% during his tenure [3]

Core Viewpoint - Sun Paper Industry's stock has experienced a decline in recent trading sessions, with a notable drop in both share price and trading volume, indicating potential investor concerns about the company's performance and market conditions [1][2]. Company Overview - Sun Paper Industry, established on April 26, 2000, and listed on November 16, 2006, is located in Yanzhou District, Jining City, Shandong Province. The company specializes in the production and sales of various paper products, including mechanical paper, paper products, wood pulp, and paperboard [1]. - The company's revenue composition includes: 27.32% from corrugated boxboard, 21.99% from double offset paper, 10.55% from coated paper, and other paper products contributing to the remaining revenue [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Sun Paper Industry reported a revenue of 19.113 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.87%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.26% to 1.780 billion yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 4.915 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.236 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Sun Paper Industry increased to 39,900, reflecting a 10.73% rise. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 9.58% to 69,610 shares [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 47.5613 million shares, a decrease of 88,200 shares from the previous period [3].

Core Points - The stock price of Rongsheng Environmental Protection fell by 2.02% on September 30, closing at 13.58 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 3.702 billion CNY [1] - The company has seen a year-to-date stock price increase of 15.49%, with a 0.59% rise over the last five trading days, 11.77% over the last twenty days, and 16.47% over the last sixty days [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.061 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 5.53%, and a net profit of 115 million CNY, down 34.57% year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - The company has distributed a total of 922 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 388 million CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 3.75% to 14,600, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 3.89% to 18,610 shares [2] Business Overview - Zhejiang Rongsheng Environmental Protection Paper Co., Ltd. specializes in the production of recycled packaging paper products, including kraft linerboard and corrugated paper, and operates in the midstream of the paper industry [1] - The company's main revenue sources include sales of raw paper and paper products (96.05%), steam sales (3.58%), and other services [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sun Paper Industry's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.06% on September 29, 2023, reflecting broader market trends and company performance metrics [1] Company Performance - As of June 30, 2023, Sun Paper Industry reported a revenue of 19.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.87%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.78 billion yuan, showing a growth of 1.26% [2] - The company has a diverse revenue stream, with the main business income composition including: corrugated boxboard (27.32%), double offset paper (21.99%), and coated paper (10.55%) among others [1] Stock and Market Activity - The stock price of Sun Paper Industry has decreased by 2.26% year-to-date, with a 1.11% drop over the last five trading days and a 6.13% decline over the last 20 days, although it has increased by 8.37% over the last 60 days [1] - The company had a market capitalization of 39.794 billion yuan as of the latest trading session, with a trading volume of 1.07 billion yuan [1] Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2023, the number of shareholders increased to 39,900, a rise of 10.73%, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 9.58% to 69,610 shares [2] - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 47.5613 million shares, a decrease of 88,200 shares from the previous period [3]