宏观点评 20250731：7 月 FOMC：给 9 月降息泼冷水——2025 年 7 月 FOMC 会议点评 证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-08-01 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250731：债券 ETF 还能走多远？ 即使受制于债基主动管理策略具备先天优势等限制，①未来可考虑更多 发挥 ETF 的产品优势；②ETF 改善信用债流动性效果明显，未来可考虑 进一步扩大跟踪指数范围；③伴随权益市场回暖，创新型挂钩权益债券及 相关 ETF 或大有可为 有望推动国内指数债基尤其是债券指数 ETF 管理 规模进一步增长，其中信用债指数 ETF、与权益指数挂钩的 ETF 的发展 尤为值得关注。 核心观点：7 月 FOMC 会议以 9-2 投票结果维持利率不变，发布会上 Powell 认为实现通胀目标相较就业目标的距离更远，因此政策利率仍应 保持在相对限制性水平，释放明显的鹰派信号。向前看，我们预期 7、8 月的非农数据易令 9 月降息预期最终延后至 25Q4，这一修正或导致 2、 10 年美债利率在 8-9 月分别上行至 4.05%、4.5%。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q2 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 26% year-on-year, exceeding expectations, with the integrated circuit testing segment showing remarkable growth [3] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 990 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the demand recovery in special industries and the domestic semiconductor supply chain, with performance growth likely to continue [5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's gross profit margin was 41.9%, a decrease of 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The revenue from the environmental testing services segment was 490 million yuan, up 6% year-on-year, while the integrated circuit testing segment generated 160 million yuan, a growth of 21% year-on-year [3][4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 2.8 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 4.3 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 24, and 19 [11]