2025 年 12 月 30 日 S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，东莞证券研 究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 布局盈利拐点 深 生猪养殖行业深度报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 农林牧渔行业 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 我国是全球最大的生猪及猪肉产需国。根据美国农业部2025年4 月份《牲畜和家禽的世界市场和贸易报告》，报告预测2025年全 球生猪产量达到12.88亿头，其中中国生猪产量达到7.05亿头， 占全球生猪总产量的比重为54.7%；2025年全球猪肉产量达到 11668万吨，其中我国猪肉产量5700万吨，占全球猪肉总产量的 比重为48.9%。预计2025年我国猪肉出口100万吨，仅占全球猪 肉出口量的1.0%，仅占我国猪肉产量的0.18%。预计2025年全球 猪肉国内消费总量约为11564.1万吨，其中中国猪肉国内消费量 5820.0万吨，占全球猪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing a significant increase in revenue within the marine engineering sector, with a notable rise from 21 million yuan in the first half of 2025 to 66 million yuan in the third quarter, indicating explosive growth potential. However, the gross margin remains under pressure, and the company is awaiting order fulfillment to fully utilize its capacity [1]. Group 1 - The marine engineering revenue for the first half of 2025 was 21 million yuan, which surged to 66 million yuan in the third quarter, showcasing a rapid growth trend [1]. - The company has indicated that its production capacity is ready and is currently waiting for orders to be fulfilled, which is crucial for achieving profitability [1]. - The company is in the trial production phase at the Yangjiang base, while the construction of the Shiyang Phase II and the German base is ongoing, with no production yet commenced [1]. Group 2 - The company has not provided a specific timeline or revenue scale for when it expects to reach a profitability inflection point, as this is contingent on order acquisition and project delivery schedules [1]. - Future disclosures regarding revenue scale, capacity utilization, and timelines will depend on the progress of each base and market conditions [1].

Core Viewpoint - NIO's CEO Li Bin expressed confidence in achieving profitability in Q4 2025, supported by the company's recent Q3 financial report, indicating a significant reduction in losses and record-high revenue [2][4]. Financial Performance - NIO reported Q3 revenue of 21.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7%, marking a historical high [2][3]. - The net loss for Q3 was 3.481 billion yuan, a substantial year-on-year reduction of 31.2%, while the adjusted net loss was 2.735 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year [4]. - The gross margin for Q3 reached 13.9%, with vehicle gross margin at 14.7%, both representing the highest levels in nearly three years [2][4]. Sales and Deliveries - NIO delivered 87,100 vehicles in Q3, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.8% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 20.8% [3]. - The increase in revenue was primarily driven by the rise in new vehicle deliveries, with automotive sales revenue reaching 19.2 billion yuan, up 15% year-on-year and 19% quarter-on-quarter [3]. Cash Flow and Cost Management - NIO achieved positive operating cash flow in Q3, indicating the company's ability to generate self-sustaining cash [3]. - Cash reserves increased to 36.7 billion yuan by the end of Q3, a nearly 10 billion yuan increase from the previous quarter [3]. - R&D expenses decreased by 28% year-on-year and 20.5% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting effective cost control measures [4]. Product Strategy and Market Trends - NIO plans to launch three new large vehicles next year, aiming to align product offerings with market trends and consumer preferences [5][6]. - The new ES8 model has seen strong sales, achieving 10,000 deliveries within 41 days of its launch, setting a new record in the over 400,000 yuan electric vehicle market [5]. - The company anticipates that the sales of large vehicles will significantly contribute to overall gross margin growth, with a target gross margin of around 20% by 2026 [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant improvement in its Q3 2025 performance, with revenue growth and a reduction in net losses, indicating a positive trend in sales and profitability driven by new vehicle launches [1][2][3] Group 1: Q3 2025 Performance - The company achieved revenue of 21.79 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.7% [1] - The net loss attributable to shareholders was 3.66 billion yuan, showing an improvement of 28.8% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] - Non-GAAP net loss was 2.74 billion yuan, with year-on-year improvement of 38.0% and quarter-on-quarter improvement of 56.4% [1] Group 2: Sales and Profitability - The company sold 87,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 40.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.8% [1] - Automotive business revenue rose to 19.20 billion yuan, up 15.0% year-on-year and 19.0% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The overall gross margin reached 13.9%, with the automotive gross margin at 14.7%, both achieving recent highs due to effective cost reductions and improved margins on key models [1] Group 3: Q4 2025 Outlook - The company expects to deliver between 120,000 to 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.1% to 72.0% [2] - Projected revenue for Q4 2025 is between 32.76 billion yuan and 34.04 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 66.3% to 72.8% [2] - The gross margin is anticipated to rise to 18% in Q4 2025, with a forecast of achieving breakeven in net profit for the quarter [2] Group 4: 2026 Projections - The company plans to launch three new large models in 2026, with expectations of reaching a monthly sales peak of over 50,000 units for five models [3] - The projected annual sales for 2026 could reach 600,000 units, supported by ongoing strong performance from the ES8 and L90 models [3] - The company maintains a stable R&D expense guidance of 2 billion yuan per quarter, focusing on efficiency and core technology improvements [3]

2025.11.27 本文字数：2562，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 葛慧 11月25日，在公司成立11周年的这天，蔚来汽车（NIO.U，9986.HK）创始人、董事长、CEO李斌在给 员工讲完话以后，签发了今年Q3的财报。 公司净亏损34.81亿元，同比环比收窄幅度均在三成以上；卖车毛利率 14.7%，环比大幅上行4.4个百分 点，高于前期指引，也高于市场预期的 12.9%。 财报发布后，美股盘前一度涨超8%，但此后一路下行，美股当日收跌4.35%，次日港股收跌。低于预期 的交付指引成为市场对于蔚来Q4盈利的最大担忧。 在26日的媒体沟通会上，李斌对第一财经等媒体回应称，交付指引的下降主要是因为置换补贴政策退坡 导致的需求下降，这对整个行业都产生了影响。但他也强调，蔚来会"聚焦主业、踏实卖车"。 尽管按非通用会计准则口径，蔚来在Q4仍有超过27亿元的亏损有待化解，但李斌依旧自信，甚至 称"2026年实现全年盈利"。但对于这场四季度盈利关键战，蔚来是否已及时转身，答案或许在一个多月 后初现端倪。 L90成为毛利率"扛鼎者" 今年一季度，偿债能力和财务报表的持续恶化，让蔚来汽车一度步入"至暗时刻"。当 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's Q3 financial report indicates a turning point in profitability, with operating profit increasing by 1% year-on-year to RMB 27.1 billion and net profit rising by 14% to RMB 31.4 billion, despite concerns over slowing growth in online marketing services revenue [1][3][5] Financial Performance - Operating profit returned to positive growth after several quarters of decline, primarily due to a lower comparison base and stable sales and marketing expenses [5] - Net profit exceeded market expectations, growing by 14% to RMB 31.4 billion [5] - Online marketing services revenue growth fell to 8%, significantly below market expectations of low double-digit growth, indicating weaker-than-expected growth in gross merchandise volume and monetization rates [4][10] Analyst Ratings and Valuation - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup, maintain "buy" ratings but show divergence in target valuations, with Morgan Stanley at $148, Citigroup raising to $170, and Goldman Sachs lowering to $147 [3][4] - Analysts believe that the narrowing losses in the Temu business and the establishment of a profitability turning point are key factors supporting valuation [3][7] Temu Business Insights - Management emphasizes trust, safety, and product compliance as core components of high-quality development for the Temu business, with significant investments made in these areas [8] - Goldman Sachs projects that Temu's EBIT will reach RMB 17 billion and RMB 24 billion in FY 2026 and 2027, respectively, reflecting a focus on compliance and infrastructure investments [8] - Analysts view the profitability turning point for Temu as a critical factor for Pinduoduo's long-term value [7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Despite facing pressure from slowing growth, analysts find Pinduoduo's valuation attractive due to its growth prospects and limited valuation for Temu [9] - Goldman Sachs notes that Pinduoduo's current valuation based on a projected 11x P/E for 2026 remains appealing compared to the industry median of 17x [9] - The company is transitioning from a growth model reliant on high subsidies to a more sustainable focus on profitability quality [12] Growth Forecasts - Goldman Sachs estimates that domestic gross merchandise volume grew by 9% in Q3, only slightly above the industry growth rate, indicating a narrowing competitive advantage [11] - Morgan Stanley has revised down its gross merchandise volume forecasts for 2025-2027, while simultaneously raising expectations for profitability [11]

Core Insights - Pinduoduo's Q3 operating profit has shown a year-on-year growth of 1%, reaching RMB 27.1 billion, marking a turning point in profitability after several quarters of decline [1][3] - Net profit increased by 14% year-on-year to RMB 31.4 billion, exceeding market expectations [3] - However, online marketing service revenue growth has dropped to 8%, significantly below market expectations for low double-digit growth, indicating weaker-than-expected growth in gross merchandise volume and monetization rates [1][2][7] - Following the earnings report, Pinduoduo's stock price fell by 6%, reflecting investor concerns over slowing growth [1][2] Financial Performance - The improvement in operating profit is attributed to a lower comparative base and stable sales and marketing expenses [3] - Morgan Stanley projects that operating profit will increase by 15% year-on-year to RMB 124 billion in 2026, with operating profit margin rising from 23.6% in 2025 to 25.8% [3] - Goldman Sachs noted a slight 5% decrease in income tax, suggesting improvements in unit economics and profit margins for gross merchandise volume [3] Temu Business Outlook - Analysts believe that the profitability turning point for Temu has been established, which is crucial for Pinduoduo's long-term value [4][5] - Management has emphasized trust, safety, and product compliance as core components of their high-quality development strategy for Temu [4] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that Temu's EBIT will be RMB 17 billion and RMB 24 billion for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively, although these estimates have been revised downwards due to compliance and infrastructure investments [5] Market Position and Valuation - Despite Pinduoduo's valuation being at a discount relative to the industry, analysts find the risk-reward profile attractive given the company's profit growth prospects [6] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target price of $148, implying a 13x P/E ratio for 2026 non-GAAP earnings, which aligns with a 14% annual profit growth expectation [6] - Goldman Sachs highlights Pinduoduo's current valuation at an 11x P/E ratio for 2026, which is appealing compared to the median of 17x for Chinese internet stocks [6] Growth Challenges - The decline in online marketing service revenue growth to 8% raises concerns about the growth of gross merchandise volume and monetization rates [7] - Goldman Sachs estimates that domestic gross merchandise volume grew by 9% in Q3, only slightly above the industry growth rate, indicating a narrowing competitive advantage [7] - Morgan Stanley has revised down its gross merchandise volume forecasts for 2025-2027, while simultaneously raising profitability expectations [7] Strategic Shift - The changes in revenue dynamics suggest that Pinduoduo is shifting from a growth model reliant on high subsidies to a more sustainable focus on profitability quality [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in Q3 2025, but net profit declined due to the suspension of national subsidies, indicating potential short-term challenges but a promising long-term outlook [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 12.066 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.22% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.51% [1] - In Q3 alone, the company generated revenue of 4.163 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60.71% [1] - The net profit for Q3 was 360 million yuan, up 2.51% year-on-year [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 335 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase [1] Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 43.73%, down 10.13 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The Q3 gross margin was 42.15%, a decline of 11.80 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the suspension of national subsidies and the introduction of self-subsidies [1] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 18.542 billion, 22.927 billion, and 28.312 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 55.23%, 23.65%, and 23.49% respectively [1] - Expected net profits for the same period are 1.616 billion, 2.235 billion, and 2.813 billion yuan [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on profitability and market conditions, suggesting a favorable investment perspective [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.07 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 37.0% to 217 million yuan [1]. - The report highlights an expected price increase for two-piece cans in 2026 due to improved competitive dynamics, which could significantly enhance profitability for the company [2]. - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 9.5%, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.2 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.5 percentage points, indicating stabilization in profitability [2]. - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 was reported at 126 million yuan, down by 261 million yuan year-on-year, indicating temporary pressure on cash flow [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a net profit of 297 million yuan, a decrease of 29.8% year-on-year, with a revenue forecast of 7.099 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 0.4% [3]. - The gross margin is expected to be 10.1% in 2025, with a gradual recovery anticipated in subsequent years, reaching 12.5% by 2027 [3]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 8.2% in 2025, improving to 12.4% by 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.30 yuan in 2025, with a forecasted increase to 0.56 yuan by 2027 [3].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 7.425 billion and net profit of 0.924 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 34.5% [1] - Operating cash flow surged to 1.107 billion, reflecting a remarkable year-on-year increase of 123.6%, indicating improved cash collection and inventory optimization [1] - The third quarter alone saw a net profit of 0.214 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 113%, confirming a turning point in profitability [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters was 7.425 billion, with a net profit of 0.924 billion, showing a 34.5% increase year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow reached 1.107 billion, up 123.6% year-on-year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [1] - The third quarter net profit was 0.214 billion, reflecting a 113% increase compared to the same period last year [1] Production Capacity - The company has accelerated its production capacity, with the new factory in Anqing, Anhui, contributing to a total annual production capacity of 87 billion disposable gloves [1] - The company has achieved "national sales champion" status for its disposable gloves and nitrile gloves, with expectations for further global market share growth [1] Shareholder Activity - Institutional investors have been actively purchasing the company's stock, with a 21% decrease in the number of shareholders in the third quarter, indicating increased concentration of shares [1] - Four public funds, including China International Fund Management, have entered the top ten circulating shareholders, collectively increasing their holdings by over 15 million shares [1]