证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 08 月 17 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年08月15日 华源晨会精粹 20250817 固定收益 当前我们为何坚定看多债市？——债市短评：股市对债市的扰动是阶段性 的，债市最终取决于经济基本面。近期债市回调源于债基及券商自营系统性主动降 久期，与赎回及经济基本面无关，7 月经济数据大幅走弱，信贷则罕见地负增长。2024 年股市"924"行情带动债市快速调整，主要是由于股市强势使得部分投资者产生经 济复苏预期及担忧股市分流债市资金。当 10 月 8 日股市阶段性见顶之后，债市快速 企稳。而后 2024 年 11 月初-12 月底债市迎来一波快牛行情。股市对债市资金的分 流有限，更多为情绪压制。本轮股市行情或源于存款等利率大幅下行驱动股票估值 系统性提升，与基本面关系较弱。当前我们为何坚定看多债市？1）央行持续宽松， 资金利率有望保持低位，债券正 carry 明显。2）年内经济下行压力或加大。3）央行 可能重启国债买入。4）银行负债成本有望持续下行，信贷需求偏弱。5）年内政府 债券净发行高峰已过，预计 Q4 净发行规模 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4][31] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the strong response to the opening of the Wushang WS Jiangtun membership store and the price increase announcement from Laopu Gold, indicating a potential surge in consumer interest [5][4] - The growth of emerging consumer goods reflects new consumption concepts among the younger generation, emphasizing the importance of understanding these narratives for capturing growth opportunities in new consumer companies [20] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - The new consumption sector showed varied performance from August 11 to August 15, with the retail index rising by 0.98% [8] Key Industry Data - In July, retail sales for gold and silver jewelry increased by 8.2% year-on-year, while cosmetics saw a 4.5% increase, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [15][12] Investment Analysis Opinions - Recommendations include focusing on high-quality domestic brands in beauty care, such as Maogeping and Shumei, and leading brands in the gold jewelry sector like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji, which are favored by younger consumers [20]

Core Insights - Shanghai Rongtai Health Technology Co., Ltd. has officially reached a strategic cooperation with Meituan for the physiotherapy robot project, aiming to explore an innovative model of "smart physiotherapy + platform traffic" [2] Group 1: Strategic Cooperation - The cooperation will leverage the strengths of both companies in health technology and local life services [2] - A three-phase strategy will be implemented: pilot stores, regional replication, and nationwide promotion [2] - The pilot stores will integrate three modules: smart device experience, health data management, and professional physiotherapy services [2] Group 2: Digital Service Integration - The first pilot stores will be located in key areas of Shanghai, allowing users to book appointments, customize plans, and track results through the Meituan app [2] - The collaboration aims to create a health service closed loop that combines online and offline services, enhancing consumer access to technology-driven health solutions [2] Group 3: Industry Impact - This strategic partnership is a significant step for Rongtai Health in its "smart health ecosystem" layout and provides an innovative model for the industry [2] - The collaboration establishes an ecological closed-loop model in the massage device industry, integrating hardware, platform, and services [2] - Meituan's user base of over 770 million annual active users, combined with Rongtai Health's 600+ technology patents and supply chain system, is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the offline massage market [2]

Core Insights - Rongtai Health and Meituan have established a strategic partnership for a therapy robot project, aiming to innovate in the "smart therapy + platform traffic" model to enhance consumer health experiences [1][2] - The collaboration leverages Meituan's extensive consumer base and Rongtai's advanced therapy technology to create a comprehensive health service ecosystem [2][3] Group 1 - The partnership will implement a three-phase strategy: pilot stores, regional replication, and nationwide promotion, focusing on integrating smart device experiences, health data management, and professional therapy services [2] - The first pilot stores will be located in key areas of Shanghai, utilizing Meituan's LBS technology to establish a "15-minute health service circle" [2] Group 2 - The collaboration is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the offline massage market by combining Meituan's 770 million annual active users with Rongtai's 600+ patents and supply chain expertise [3] - This strategic partnership marks a significant step for Rongtai Health in its "smart health ecosystem" strategy and serves as an innovative model for the industry, emphasizing the integration of technology and platform services [3]

Market Overview - A total of 49 stocks hit the daily limit up in the A-share market, with 46 stocks after excluding 3 ST stocks, and an overall limit-up rate of 60.49% [1] Top Performers - Top stock by limit-up order volume is Xining Special Steel with 279,200 hands, followed by Wenke Co., China Electric Power, and Yanhua Intelligent with 194,800 hands, 183,400 hands, and 151,900 hands respectively [2] - Xining Special Steel, Tibet Tianlu, and Tibet Tourism achieved five consecutive limit-ups, while Tuoshan Heavy Industry and Rainbow Group had three consecutive limit-ups [2] Significant Capital Inflows - Eleven stocks had limit-up orders exceeding 100 million yuan, with Tuoshan Heavy Industry leading at 606 million yuan, followed by Zhangjiang Hi-Tech and Shenzhen New Star at 307 million yuan and 141 million yuan respectively [3] Industry Highlights - Tuoshan Heavy Industry focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of engineering machinery components, serving major clients like SANY Heavy Industry and XCMG [3] - The robotics sector saw multiple stocks limit up, including Bojie Co., Rongtai Health, and Dahan Technology, with Bojie Co. developing products applicable to robotics [4][5] AI and Intelligent Systems - Hubei Broadcasting and Zhizhen Technology are involved in developing intelligent systems, with Hubei Broadcasting's "Chuyun Intelligent Body" achieving a 92% accuracy in regional cultural content generation [6][7] Earnings Forecasts - Zhongdian Xindong expects a net profit of 15 million to 22 million yuan for the first half of the year, marking a turnaround from losses [8] - Yanhua Intelligent anticipates a net profit of 3.5 million to 5.25 million yuan, also indicating a return to profitability [9] - Lvtian Machinery projects a net profit of 128 million to 145 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 70% [10] Stock Market Activity - The top net purchases on the Dragon and Tiger list included Tibet Tianlu and InSai Group, with net purchases of 542 million yuan and 154 million yuan respectively [11][12]

Group 1 - The 2025 International Youth Exchange Conference and the 40th anniversary of international friendship cities in Zibo opened on May 28, with representatives from over 60 delegations from 28 countries [2] - The event aims to expand Zibo's international "friend circle" and build a platform for dialogue and cooperation among global youth and urban development [2][4] - Zibo has established friendly relations with 40 cities across 25 countries, including 14 international friendship cities and 26 international cooperation cities, creating a global cooperation network [5] Group 2 - The International Friendship City Cooperation 40th Anniversary Exhibition was a key event, featuring over 100 domestic and foreign enterprises engaging in one-on-one precise matchmaking [3] - Zibo's international cooperation has expanded from initial economic exchanges to include education, culture, and technology [4] - The event facilitated significant cooperation agreements, including a partnership between Zibo Feiyuan Chemical Co. and a Philippine company, expected to generate over 2 billion yuan in investment [8] Group 3 - The conference emphasized the importance of youth, calling for collaboration in areas such as artificial intelligence, new energy, and cultural exchange [6] - A new foreign-related comprehensive service platform was launched to support enterprises in international markets, facilitating 16 foreign cooperation projects with a total investment of 170 million yuan during its trial operation [8] - Zibo is transforming from an industrial city to an open "new city," leveraging its foreign service platform, friendship city resources, and industrial projects to drive high-quality development [9]

Group 1 - The "Shenzhen-Osaka Innovation Cooperation Conference" was held in Osaka, Japan, attracting around 150 representatives from government, business associations, research institutions, and enterprises from both cities, resulting in the signing of 5 cooperation agreements in fields such as robotics, smart manufacturing, and food technology [1][2] - Shenzhen's Vice Mayor highlighted the long-standing cooperative relationship between Shenzhen and Japan, noting a 16.4% increase in trade, with Shenzhen's exports and imports to Japan reaching $26.4 billion in 2024 [1] - The conference featured a showcase area with nearly 40 Shenzhen companies displaying their representative products and cutting-edge technologies, facilitating interaction with Japanese participants [2] Group 2 - Five agreements were signed between Shenzhen and Japanese companies, including collaborations in LED display services, humanoid robots, investment support, and smart cooking technology [3] - Specific agreements included Shenzhen's Zhouming Technology partnering with Neura Marketing for LED services in Osaka, and Youbixuan Technology signing with GA Robotics to expand humanoid robot products in Japan [3] - Other notable collaborations involved Guangdong Jushen Storm Robotics and Brand Station for promoting therapy robots, and Zhigu Tianchu Technology with DinnerBank for introducing smart cooking systems in Japanese restaurants [3]

Group 1: Event Overview - The 27th China Beijing International Science and Technology Industry Expo was held from May 8 to 11, showcasing cutting-edge technology, cross-industry innovations, and application demonstrations [1][3] - The expo featured over 800 domestic and international enterprises, with an exhibition area of 50,000 square meters, more than doubling the size from the previous year [3] Group 2: Robotics Focus - Robots were the highlight of the expo, with various models attracting significant attention, including the N2 robot "Little Rascal" and the champion robot "TianGong Ultra" [2][3] - The TianGong family introduced the TianGong Lite, which offers open-source capabilities and is designed for various applications, with a new model, TianGong 2.0, set to launch soon [2] Group 3: Market Applications - Several new robotic products are already being deployed in various sectors, enhancing everyday scenarios through AI technology [3] - The AI130 commercial patrol robot, designed for cleaning and surveillance, is set to launch in late 2024, priced around 200,000 yuan, and can reduce the workload of 3 to 5 people [4] Group 4: Specialized Robots - The "wind power maintenance robot" is designed for cleaning wind turbine towers, capable of complex movements on curved surfaces, and began market deployment last October [5] - A multi-functional AI climbing robot was showcased, suitable for infrastructure inspections in tunnels and other settings [6] Group 5: Medical Robotics - Medical robots were another key highlight, with the ROPA orthopedic robot capable of performing knee joint replacement surgeries with high precision and minimal invasiveness [6][7] - The robotic "orthopedic doctor" from Rosenbot can perform surgeries with a success rate close to 100%, significantly reducing the size of incisions compared to traditional methods [7]

Core Insights - The 137th Canton Fair showcased a vibrant atmosphere, particularly in the newly established service robot exhibition area, attracting significant attention from international buyers [2][10] - Various types of robots were displayed, including humanoid, inspection, exoskeleton, coffee, cleaning, companion, medical, catering, and guiding robots, highlighting China's advancements in robotics [2][10] Group 1: Humanoid Robots - Humanoid robots became the star attraction, with companies like Magic Atom showcasing a "no-human booth" where the staff was entirely composed of humanoid robots [3] - The humanoid robot "Xiaomai" demonstrated advanced capabilities, including walking, running, and carrying loads of up to 40 kilograms, with a maximum operational endurance of 5 hours [3][4] Group 2: Industrial Applications - Companies like Ligong Industrial presented robots designed for factory applications, with a focus on international markets such as Europe and Southeast Asia, indicating a growing demand for automation in these regions [6] - The "Lideng D1" robot gained popularity for its precision in performing complex tasks, showcasing the technological advancements in robotic capabilities [6] Group 3: Medical and Daily Life Robots - The "Kuntuo Orthopedic Surgery Robot" demonstrated its capabilities in performing surgeries with high precision, having completed over 4,000 surgeries across various challenging environments [7] - The "Therapeutic Robot" developed by Aobo integrates traditional Chinese medicine techniques, attracting interest from international buyers unfamiliar with such technology [8] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The Canton Fair highlighted a "dual-direction" global supply-demand dynamic, with many international buyers actively seeking innovative products despite the backdrop of a trade war initiated by the U.S. [10] - Companies expressed confidence in their ability to navigate market challenges due to a well-established domestic market and a complete industrial chain in China [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the integration of AI technology into the massage industry, highlighting that while it may attract consumers, it often fails to deliver the fundamental relaxation experience that traditional massages provide [3][14]. Group 1: AI Massage Experience - The introduction of AI massage robots is seen as a trend, with prices being relatively low, such as a 45-minute session costing around 60 yuan after discounts [5]. - The experience of using the AI massage robot was marred by technical difficulties, with the setup taking 20 minutes and the robot's functionality being limited, leading to discomfort rather than relaxation [9][10]. - The AI massage robot's inability to perform basic massage techniques resulted in a lack of satisfaction, with the user feeling more anxious than relaxed during the session [12][13]. Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The AI massage robot appears to be more of a marketing tool aimed at attracting younger consumers, while the primary clientele remains older individuals who prefer traditional services [16][29]. - The massage industry is experiencing significant growth, with the market for rehabilitation robots projected to increase from 2.04 billion yuan in 2023 to 7.95 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 57.5% [32]. - Major companies in the wellness sector are increasingly adopting technology, with brands like Xiuyue and Yishengtang investing in AI and digital solutions to enhance their service offerings [36]. Group 3: Industry Challenges and Consumer Perception - Despite the technological advancements, there are concerns regarding the efficacy and safety of AI-driven wellness products, with some consumers questioning the legitimacy of the claims made by these technologies [36][37]. - The massage and wellness industry is characterized by a lack of strong brand loyalty, with the top 10 brands only accounting for 8.5% of the market share, indicating a highly competitive environment [34][36]. - The article suggests that while AI can enhance service differentiation and potentially increase prices, the fundamental consumer experience remains paramount, and many consumers are skeptical of the benefits offered by AI technologies [34][36].