生猪2603)
Search documents
生猪:屠宰、肥标及二育情绪共振
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 01:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the pig market, including price, trading volume, open interest, and spread data, as well as market information and trend strength [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The Henan spot price is 11,730 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 11,250 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 11,460 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change. For futures, the prices of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,525 yuan/ton, 12,235 yuan/ton, and 11,615 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 115 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 45 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of contract 2511 is 21,548 lots, a decrease of 14,382 lots from the previous day; the open interest is 21,941 lots, a decrease of 6,208 lots from the previous day. For contract 2601, the trading volume is 132,739 lots, a decrease of 16,289 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 103,162 lots, an increase of 607 lots from the previous day. For contract 2603, the trading volume is 28,717 lots, a decrease of 2,267 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 83,188 lots, an increase of 1,905 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of contract 2511 is 205 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 135 yuan/ton; the basis of contract 2601 is - 505 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 170 yuan/ton; the basis of contract 2603 is 115 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 205 yuan/ton. The spread between contracts 11 - 1 is - 710 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton, and the spread between contracts 1 - 3 is 620 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Market Information - Yuexiu and Yangxiang have added delivery warehouses [2]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].
生猪:供应后置,中枢继续下移
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 02:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of live pigs is postponed, and the price center continues to move down [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of live pigs in Henan is 11,280 yuan/ton, in Sichuan is 10,800 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong is 11,460 yuan/ton, with year - on - year increases of 150 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton, and 100 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,165 yuan/ton, 11,905 yuan/ton, and 11,540 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 235 yuan/ton, 290 yuan/ton, and 125 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig futures contract 2511 is 33,489 lots, a decrease of 9,492 lots from the previous day, with an open interest of 41,232 lots, a decrease of 3,573 lots. The trading volume of contract 2601 is 80,026 lots, an increase of 28,549 lots, with an open interest of 105,012 lots, an increase of 14,112 lots. The trading volume of contract 2603 is 16,872 lots, an increase of 951 lots, with an open interest of 77,419 lots, an increase of 1,948 lots [1]. 3.2 Market Information - Shennong's Yunnan and Guangxi warehouses registered 90 lots of warehouse receipts, and Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 lots of warehouse receipts [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 2, indicating the most bearish view [3]. 3.4 Futures Research - **Basis**: The basis of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 55 yuan/ton, 365 yuan/ton, and - 165 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 115 yuan/ton, 385 yuan/ton, and - 625 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of live pig futures contracts 11 - 1 and 1 - 3 are 440 yuan/ton and - 260 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 275 yuan/ton and - 740 yuan/ton [4].
生猪:二育逻辑导致预期下移
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-16 01:53
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The logic of secondary fattening has led to a downward shift in expectations for the hog market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 11,130 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 10,650 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 11,360 yuan/ton, all with a year - on - year increase of 100 [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,400 yuan/ton, 12,195 yuan/ton, and 11,665 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 50, 210, and 170 [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of hog futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 42,981, 51,477, and 15,921 hands respectively, with decreases of 22,605, 5,785, and 2,048 hands compared to the previous day. The open interests are 44,805, 90,900, and 75,471 hands respectively, with changes of - 3,846, + 3,086, and + 4,275 hands compared to the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are - 270, - 1065, and - 535 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 150, 310, and 270. The spreads between contracts 11 - 1 and 1 - 3 are - 795 and 530 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 160 and - 40 [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Guizhou Zhenfeng Fuyuan registered 21 hands of warehouse receipts [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].
生猪:现货底部未现,关注收基差行情
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:06
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - The spot price of live pigs has not reached the bottom, and attention should be paid to the basis convergence market [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: Henan spot price is 11,130 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 10,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton year - on - year; Guangdong spot price is 11,560 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton year - on - year. For futures, the price of live pig 2511 is 11,320 yuan/ton, down 275 yuan/ton year - on - year; live pig 2601 is 12,140 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; live pig 2603 is 11,960 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live pig 2511 is 57,873 lots, an increase of 6,946 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest is 60,392 lots, an increase of 2,056 lots compared with the previous day. The trading volume of live pig 2601 is 40,663 lots, a decrease of 53 lots, and the open interest is 88,892 lots, an increase of 4,102 lots. The trading volume of live pig 2603 is 15,122 lots, a decrease of 1,137 lots, and the open interest is 63,618 lots, an increase of 6,069 lots [2]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of live pig 2511 is - 190 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live pig 2601 is - 1,010 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live pig 2603 is - 830 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton year - on - year. The spread between live pig 11 - 1 is - 820 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between live pig 1 - 3 is 180 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton year - on - year [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 2, indicating the most bearish view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3].
生猪:现货底部未现,近月升水偏大
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:42
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Report's Core View - The spot bottom of live pigs has not appeared, and the premium of near - month contracts is relatively large [1] - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's live pig spot price is 11,330 yuan/ton, down 1,100 yuan; Sichuan's is 11,250 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan; and Guangdong's is 12,060 yuan/ton, down 650 yuan [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of live pig futures contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are 11,595 yuan/ton (down 700 yuan), 12,165 yuan/ton (down 620 yuan), and 11,970 yuan/ton (down 480 yuan) respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For the 2511 contract, the trading volume is 50,927 lots (down 7,793 lots) and the open interest is 58,336 lots (down 17,117 lots); for the 2601 contract, the trading volume is 40,716 lots (up 3,662 lots) and the open interest is 84,790 lots (up 8,369 lots); for the 2603 contract, the trading volume is 16,259 lots (up 1,932 lots) and the open interest is 57,549 lots (up 4,944 lots) [2] - **Price Differences**: The basis of contracts 2511, 2601, and 2603 are - 265 yuan/ton (down 400 yuan), - 835 yuan/ton (down 480 yuan), and - 640 yuan/ton (down 620 yuan) respectively; the 11 - 1 spread is - 570 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and the 1 - 3 spread is 195 yuan/ton (down 140 yuan) [2]
生猪:假期现货跌幅加大,收基差行情
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 01:45
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating a strong bearish view. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2]. 2) Report Core View - The report focuses on the pig market, highlighting that the spot price decline increased during the holiday, and it is a basis - closing market [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,480 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; the Sichuan spot price is 11,900 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0; the Guangdong spot price is 12,660 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of pig2511, pig2601, and pig2603 are 12,355 yuan/ton, 12,825 yuan/ton, and 12,480 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 60, 40, and 30 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig2511, pig2601, and pig2603 is 44,100 hands, 31,876 hands, and 9,786 hands respectively, with decreases of 14,620 hands, 5,178 hands, and 4,541 hands compared to the previous day. The open interest of pig2511, pig2601, and pig2603 is 61,105 hands, 76,877 hands, and 52,713 hands respectively, with changes of - 14,348 hands, + 456 hands, and + 108 hands compared to the previous day [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of pig2511 is 125 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 10 [1].
生猪:现货底部未现
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the bottom of the live - hog spot market has not been reached as of September 30, 2025 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,430 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 12,710 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of live - hog 2511 is 12,295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of live - hog 2601 is 12,785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of live - hog 2603 is 12,450 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live - hog 2511 is 58,720 lots, an increase of 19,978 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 75,453 lots, a decrease of 9,566 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live - hog 2601 is 37,054 lots, an increase of 10,127 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 76,421 lots, an increase of 4,799 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live - hog 2603 is 14,327 lots, an increase of 6,995 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 52,605 lots, an increase of 1,743 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live - hog 2511 is 135 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live - hog 2601 is - 355 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live - hog 2603 is - 20 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between live - hog 11 - 1 is - 490 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between live - hog 1 - 3 is 335 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].
生猪:月底缩量兑现,价格反弹
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 02:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2]. 2. Core View - Weekend group significantly reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. In August, the planned slaughter volume of large farms increased, and small farmers were forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. From September to October, the production cycle and inventory cycle resonate, and it's advisable to enter the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets declined, and the price drop accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward movement of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be set. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The price of Henan spot is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Sichuan spot is 13,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Guangdong spot is 14,740 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2511 contract is 13,555 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2601 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2603 contract is 13,135 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2511 contract is 22,855 lots, down 7,687 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,636 lots, down 1,327 lots from the previous day; the pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 12,385 lots, down 1,050 lots, and an open interest of 48,313 lots, up 180 lots; the pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 3,149 lots, down 941 lots, and an open interest of 31,772 lots, up 257 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2511 contract is 225 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the pig 2601 contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the pig 2603 contract is 645 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 11 - 1 spread is - 315 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 1 - 3 spread is 735 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year [1].