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宏观压力与产业过剩的双重压力下 2026年原油价格仍面临较大的下行压力
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2026-01-08 15:11
供应端来看,欧佩克+一季度暂停增产,适度减缓供应端压力,不过2025年累计增产幅度已然明显,叠 加美国与其它产油国的增产预期,油市供应端压力依然较大。 展望2026年全年,原油市场关注点依然集中在国际贸易争端、美联储货币政策、美国石油需求、欧佩克 +产量政策以及地缘局势等方面。 宏观方面,市场押注2026年美联储继续降息,提振市场心态,不过在降息路径不明朗、决策难度加大的 情况下,降息的利好提振影响或受限制。而且,特朗普关税引发贸易争端的弊端或陆续显现,通胀回 升、经济疲弱等将进一步影响金融及商品市场,油市持续承压。 产业方面,需求端来看,全球石油需求增速平缓,对油市支撑有限;美国石油需求稳健的利好,直至年 中才会对油市形成持续性支撑;当然中国经济稳健、能源需求前景乐观,一定程度提振市场心态。 2026年1月4日,欧佩克+产油国开会审议全球石油市场形势,八个主要产油国重申11月2日与11月30日的 会议决议,即因季节性原因暂停2026年1月、2月、3月的产量增量。2026年一季度主要产油国暂停增产 得会议决议,符合市场预期,对油市影响有限。 众所周知,欧佩克+作为油市供应端最主要的合作组织,其产量政策对油市的 ...
原油:产油国重申一季度暂停增产 余量增产仍存变数
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-08 02:54
热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 众所周知,欧佩克+作为油市供应端最主要的合作组织,其产量政策对油市的影响非常明显。近年来, 欧佩克+产量政策经历多番调整,2025年开始推进减产的逐步恢复计划,也就是市场所说的增产动作, 对原油市场形成利空影响。 2025年产油国的增产动作分为两个阶段,增产幅度与增产节奏截然不同。2025年4月份,欧佩克+开始 实施第一部分即220万桶/日自愿减产的恢复计划。连续六个月的时间内,欧佩克+增产经历了落地、提 速到进一步提速的转变,其中,4月增产13.8万桶/日,5月、6月、7月均增产41万桶/日,8月、9月均增 产55万桶/日。2025年9月份,欧佩克+提前一年完成220万桶/日自愿减产的恢复计划,叠加阿联酋因产 量基准调整而提升的30万桶/日增量,产油国累计增产计划量近250万桶/日。产油国第一阶段的增产节 奏明显快于市场预期,对油市的利空影响较为显著,叠加特朗普关税引发国际贸易争端、并且加重经济 及能源需求疲弱风险,以及特朗普斡旋地缘局势等利空因素,施压原油价格在1-5月份出现震荡下跌走 势。 客户端 卓创资讯分析师 桑潇 【导语】2026年1月4日 ...
中方已在世贸组织起诉印度,商务部回应
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-12-19 10:12
商务部新闻发言人就中方在世贸组织起诉印度信息通讯产品关税措施及光伏补贴措施答记者问 有媒体问:据悉,中方已在世贸组织起诉印度信息通讯产品关税措施及光伏补贴措施。能否请您介绍具体情况? 印方相关措施涉嫌违反世贸组织约束税率、国民待遇等多项义务,并构成世贸组织明令禁止的进口替代补贴。这些措施给予印方本国产业不公平的竞争优 势,损害了中方利益。 这是中方继起诉印度电动汽车及电池补贴措施后,切实维护国内产业合法权益的又一坚定举措。我们再次敦促印方恪守其在世贸组织有关承诺,立即纠正 错误做法。 答:12月19日,中方就印度信息通讯产品关税措施及光伏补贴措施在世贸组织向印方提出磋商请求。 ...
广发期货:‌债务与地缘双忧 贵金属能否守住多头阵地?
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-10-23 09:33
Group 1: Gold Market Performance - The main gold futures price in Shanghai is reported at 942.28 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.77% [1] - The opening price for the day was 927.66 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 948.00 CNY and a low of 923.62 CNY [1] Group 2: Macro News - Concerns over intensified international trade disputes have increased due to new export control discussions from the White House, alongside disappointing corporate earnings impacting the market [1] - The Federal Reserve held a Fintech conference discussing the integration of traditional finance with digital assets, stablecoin business models, AI in payments, and tokenized products [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the DeFi sector is no longer viewed with skepticism, and the Fed is open to payment innovations, proposing a "streamlined master account" concept for non-bank payment companies [1] Group 3: Institutional Views on Gold - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and a national debt exceeding 38 trillion USD, along with the complex situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to a decrease in market risk appetite [2] Group 4: Silver Market Performance - The international silver price closed at 48.501 USD per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.35% [5] - The silver market is supported by rising expectations of Federal Reserve easing, overseas physical demand, and ETF inflows, although domestic industrial demand remains weak, indicating a mixed market condition [4] Group 5: Price Support Levels - The international gold price closed at 4097.59 USD per ounce, down 0.63%, with a rebound after testing the 4000 USD level, which is seen as a support point [3] - Short-term pressures on silver prices are expected due to liquidity disturbances, with support around 47 USD [6]
史上首次!突破38万亿美元!美股大跌
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-10-23 00:14
Market Overview - US stock markets faced pressure with all three major indices closing lower on October 22, 2023, due to concerns over intensified international trade disputes and disappointing earnings reports from companies like Texas Instruments and Netflix [1][2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 334.33 points, or 0.71%, closing at 46,590.41 points; the Nasdaq Composite dropped 213.27 points, or 0.93%, to 22,740.40 points; and the S&P 500 decreased by 35.95 points, or 0.53%, ending at 6,699.40 points [1] Government Debt - The total US federal government debt surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, as reported by the Treasury Department on October 22, 2023 [2][3] - This milestone occurred just over two months after the debt reached $37 trillion in mid-August [3] Corporate Earnings - Investors are closely monitoring the earnings reports of major companies, with over three-quarters of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far exceeding earnings expectations [3] - Tesla's earnings report is anticipated to kick off the earnings season for the "Big Seven" tech stocks [3] Sector Performance - In the S&P 500, seven out of eleven sectors declined, with the industrial and consumer discretionary sectors leading the losses at 1.31% and 1.00%, respectively [4] - The energy sector and consumer staples sector saw gains of 1.32% and 0.64%, respectively [4] Notable Stock Movements - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Netflix dropping over 10% due to a tax dispute in Brazil affecting its earnings report [5] - Texas Instruments' disappointing earnings and weak fourth-quarter guidance led to a significant drop in its stock price, impacting the broader semiconductor sector [4][5] - Intuitive Surgical stood out with a strong earnings and revenue report, resulting in a 13.9% increase in its stock price [6] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US experienced a general decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 0.93% [6] - Notable declines included Kingsoft Cloud and NetEase, both down over 4%, while companies like iQIYI and NIO saw slight increases [6]
史上首次!突破38万亿美元!美股大跌
证券时报· 2025-10-23 00:11
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced a collective decline due to concerns over escalating international trade disputes and disappointing earnings reports from companies like Texas Instruments and Netflix [1][4][12]. Economic Indicators - As of October 21, the total U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $38 trillion for the first time, marking a significant milestone in fiscal policy [2][7]. - This increase in debt occurred just over two months after the total reached $37 trillion in mid-August [8]. Corporate Earnings - Over three-quarters of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings thus far have exceeded expectations, indicating a potentially positive trend in corporate performance [10]. - Notable declines were observed in major tech stocks, with Netflix dropping over 10% due to tax disputes in Brazil, and Texas Instruments falling significantly after a disappointing earnings forecast [12][13]. Sector Performance - The S&P 500 index saw seven sectors decline while four rose, with the industrial and consumer discretionary sectors leading the losses at 1.31% and 1.00%, respectively [12]. - Conversely, the energy sector showed strength, with several companies like Schlumberger and BP rising over 3% [15]. Trade Relations - Investors are closely monitoring U.S.-China trade negotiations, with expectations for a fair trade agreement as U.S. officials prepare for discussions in Malaysia [6].
美股交易“停摆本周结束”,杠杆达历史峰值
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-10-21 01:49
Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices rose collectively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up by 515.97 points (1.12%) to close at 46,706.58 points, the Nasdaq up by 310.57 points (1.37%) to 22,990.54 points, and the S&P 500 up by 71.12 points (1.07%) to 6,735.13 points [1] Economic Indicators - Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council, indicated that the federal government "shutdown" is expected to end this week [2][8] Technology Sector Performance - Among the "Tech Giants," Facebook rose over 2%, while Tesla, Amazon, and Google increased by more than 1%. Microsoft saw a smaller increase of 0.63%, and Nvidia experienced a decline of 0.32% [3] - Apple shares surged nearly 4%, resulting in a market capitalization increase of approximately $147.6 billion (about 105.17 billion RMB) [4] Apple Inc. Insights - Loop Capital upgraded its rating on Apple from "Hold" to "Buy," citing improving demand trends for iPhones and suggesting that the company is at the beginning of a long-term adoption cycle, with iPhone shipments expected to grow through 2027 [5] - The Counterpoint report highlighted that early sales of the iPhone 17 series in China and the U.S. were strong, with sales 14% higher than the iPhone 16 series, and the basic model of the iPhone 17 nearly doubling its sales in China [5] Market Sentiment and Leverage - A key leverage indicator measuring market enthusiasm has surged to levels exceeding those seen before the 1999 internet bubble and the 2007 financial crisis [3] - Investor leverage has reached a peak, with margin debt on the New York Stock Exchange increasing by 32.4% from April to September, the second-fastest growth rate since early 2000 [5][6] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spiked above 28 points but later retreated to around 20 as the stock market rose [7] Upcoming Earnings Reports - The earnings reporting season for U.S. stocks is set to begin in the next two weeks, with Tesla scheduled to release its Q3 earnings report on Wednesday after the market closes, followed by other tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google [9]
见证历史!全线大涨,发生了什么?
天天基金网· 2025-10-21 01:10
Market Overview - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones up 515.97 points (1.12%), Nasdaq up 310.57 points (1.37%), and S&P 500 up 71.12 points (1.07%) [5][4] - Concerns over regional bank credit have eased, and the market sentiment was boosted by expectations of the U.S. government ending its shutdown and Trump's recent tariff exemptions on several imported goods [3][8] Federal Reserve and Economic Data - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 20th day, causing delays in the release of key economic data, which has left investors in a "data vacuum" ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting [7] - Traders are anticipating a 99% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with another cut expected in December [8] Banking Sector Performance - Zion Bank reported better-than-expected earnings, with Q3 EPS at $1.48, surpassing analysts' expectations of $1.46, leading to a 3% increase in its stock price post-announcement [11] - Major banks saw stock price increases, with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and others rising over 1% following positive sentiment in the banking sector [12] Technology Sector Highlights - Apple Inc. shares rose 3.94%, reaching a new all-time high, driven by strong demand for the iPhone 17, which saw a 14% increase in sales compared to the iPhone 16 within the first ten days of launch [14][17] - Loop Capital upgraded Apple's rating from hold to buy, raising the target price from $226 to $315 due to the strong demand for the latest iPhone [17] Gold Market Dynamics - Spot gold prices surged over 2%, reaching a new historical high of $4,381.49 per ounce, supported by expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and ongoing safe-haven buying [19] - Gold mining stocks performed well, with notable increases in companies like NovaGold Resources and Barrick Gold, reflecting the bullish sentiment in the gold market [19] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. saw a broad increase, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising 2.39% and notable gains in companies like iQIYI and Alibaba [21]
金价,又爆了!中国资产,大爆发!
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-10-21 00:19
Market Overview - US stock indices rose significantly, with the Dow Jones up 515.97 points (1.12%), Nasdaq up 310.57 points (1.37%), and S&P 500 up 71.12 points (1.07%) [2] - Spot gold prices hit a new all-time high, closing at $4,355.69 per ounce, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and safe-haven buying [9] Banking Sector - Zion Bank reported better-than-expected earnings for Q3, with earnings per share at $1.48, surpassing analysts' expectations of $1.46, leading to a 3% increase in after-hours trading [5] - The bank's credit loss reserves increased to $49 million from $13 million year-over-year, alleviating some concerns about regional bank credit risks [5] - Major banks saw stock price increases, with JPMorgan up over 1%, Goldman Sachs up over 1%, Citigroup up over 2%, and Wells Fargo up over 3% [6] Technology Sector - Apple shares rose 3.94%, reaching a new annual high, supported by strong demand for the iPhone 17, which saw a 14% increase in sales compared to the iPhone 16 within the first ten days of launch [7][8] - Loop Capital upgraded Apple's rating from hold to buy, raising the target price from $226 to $315 due to the strong demand for the latest iPhone [8] - The technology sector overall saw gains, with the tech giants index up 1.44% [7] Gold Market - Spot gold surged over 2%, reaching a peak of $4,381.49 per ounce during trading, with expectations of continued price increases in the coming weeks [9] - Gold mining stocks performed well, with notable increases in companies like NovaGold Resources (up over 5%) and Barrick Gold (up over 4%) [9] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks listed in the US saw widespread gains, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 2.39% and the Chinese Tech Leaders Index up 2.31% [10] - Individual stocks such as iQIYI (up over 8%) and Alibaba (up nearly 4%) contributed to the positive performance [10]
德恩精工董秘减持“迅猛”完成 公司上市后其累计套现逾1200万元
Core Viewpoint - The company has completed the share reduction plan by its vice president and board secretary, Xie Longde, who sold a total of 168,800 shares at an average price of 18.45 yuan per share, realizing approximately 3.11 million yuan [1] Group 1: Share Reduction Details - Xie Longde reduced his holdings on September 8 and 9, 2023, and after the reduction, he holds 506,300 shares, representing 0.3452% of the company [1] - Another vice president, Li Xiyun, completed his share reduction plan on September 2, 2023, selling 126,800 shares at an average price of 18.84 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.39 million yuan [1] - The share price of the company saw a significant increase from early to mid-August, peaking above 23 yuan per share, but both executives missed the opportunity to sell at this high price [1] Group 2: Historical Context of Share Reductions - Xie Longde has previously engaged in share reductions, including a plan in 2020 where he sold 300,000 shares for approximately 6.51 million yuan [3] - Cumulatively, Xie Longde has realized around 12.96 million yuan from share reductions since the company's IPO [4] - The company's controlling shareholder, Lei Yongqiang, has also been involved in significant share reductions, totaling over 20 million yuan in various transactions from 2022 to 2024 [4] Group 3: Company Performance and Market Conditions - The company has faced declining performance, reporting losses of 8.12 million yuan in 2023 and 131 million yuan in 2024, following stable performance from 2019 to 2022 [5][6] - The company attributes its challenges to intense market competition, price pressures, and adverse global economic conditions, including international trade disputes [6]