Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillating strongly [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Despite the large supply pressure and off - season downstream demand, the rebound of domestic coal futures prices offsets the weak fundamentals, and the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and strong, and the reference view is a strong operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and methanol oscillates and stabilizes [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory and strong, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of strong operation. The current supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. Driven by the rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures showed an oscillatory consolidation trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly down 0.08% to 2395 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of methanol 2509 are respectively "volatile", "volatile", and "volatile and moderately strong", with a reference view of "moderately strong operation" [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - The methanol futures 2509 contract showed a moderately strong intraday trend and a volatile medium - term trend. On the night of Monday this week, domestic methanol futures maintained a volatile and moderately strong trend, with the futures price slightly up 0.79% to 2418 yuan/ton [1][5]. Driving Logic - **Supply - side factors**: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously being released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations, leading to a stockpiling cycle at ports. Meanwhile, downstream demand enters the off - season, resulting in a looser supply - demand structure [5]. - **Policy factors**: After the previous sharp correction, the negative sentiment has been released. The domestic high - level meeting set the tone for a new round of supply - side reform, which may boost domestic commodity futures [5]. - **Related product factors**: Driven by the sharp rise in coal futures prices, the methanol futures market has been affected [1][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - Due to the continuous release of domestic methanol production capacity and increasing overseas shipments, supply pressure is rising while downstream demand enters the off - season, leading to a loose supply - demand structure [5]. - After the previous sharp correction, the bearish sentiment has been released. A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures, but the methanol futures 2509 contract is still likely to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Trends - On the night of last Friday, domestic methanol futures maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.58% to 2401 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - Demand Situation - Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are arriving, and external supply is expected to increase. Ports are in a inventory - building cycle, while downstream demand has entered the off - season, resulting in a loose supply - demand structure [5]. Policy Impact - The recent high - level domestic meeting has set the tone for governance of low - price disorderly competition and promotion of the orderly exit of backward production capacity. A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, with a general view of a moderately strong operation. The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 may maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend on Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - On Thursday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a moderately strong and fluctuating trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.66% to 2,424 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - Supply side: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously being released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations, and ports are entering a inventory accumulation cycle [5]. - Demand side: Downstream demand has entered the off - season, and the supply - demand structure has become looser [5]. - Policy aspect: Recent high - level meetings in China have set the tone for a new round of supply - side reforms, which may boost domestic commodity futures [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly stronger than volatile trend on Thursday, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, and a reference view of running stronger [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Methanol Market Analysis - **Price Movement**: On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.35% to 2288 yuan/ton [5] - **Driving Factors** - **Macro - factors**: Positive signals from the phone call between Chinese and US leaders, an invitation for the US to visit China, and a consensus on tariffs in London have led to an improvement in the macro - factor as optimism rises [5] - **Industrial Factors**: The domestic methanol supply pressure has increased again, downstream demand improvement is limited, the futures contract profit of methanol - to - olefins has declined, and the port inventory is difficult to further reduce. With an expected increase in imports, the future social inventory accumulation pressure is rising [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation weakly" respectively [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2509, short - term view is oscillation, medium - term view is oscillation, and intraday view is oscillation weakly, with a reference view of weak operation due to a weak supply - demand structure [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - As macro - positive factors are digested, methanol futures prices are dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Domestic coal - to - methanol plants are restarting, increasing supply pressure to a record high. Downstream demand improvement is limited, and the profit of methanol - to - olefin futures has declined, which is unfavorable for port inventory reduction. With an expected increase in external imports, the pressure of social inventory accumulation will rise. On Wednesday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed an oscillation - weakly trend, closing 1.40% lower at 2178 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillation - weakly trend on Thursday [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation on the weak side [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - On the night of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.53% to 2,269 yuan/ton [5]. Core Logic - With the gradual digestion of macro - positive factors, there is a lack of fundamental support for the continued upward movement of methanol futures prices [5]. - Multiple domestic coal - to - methanol plants have restarted one after another, and the supply pressure has rebounded again, hitting a new weekly production high [5]. - The improvement in downstream demand is limited, and the profit of methanol - to - olefin futures has declined, which is not conducive to the continued reduction of port inventories [5]. - With the expected increase in external imports, the pressure on social inventory accumulation will increase in the future [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively [1][5] - Due to the weak supply - demand structure, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Time - period Views - Short - term view of methanol 2509 is oscillatory, medium - term is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1] Core Logic - Macro - level positive factors are digested, and there is a lack of fundamental support for the upward movement of methanol futures prices [5] - Multiple domestic coal - to - methanol plants have restarted, supply pressure has risen again, and weekly production has reached a new high [5] - Downstream demand improvement is limited, the futures profit of methanol - to - olefins has declined, which is not conducive to further reduction of port inventory [5] - With the expected increase in external imports, the future social inventory accumulation pressure has increased [5] Price Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract slightly dropped 0.61% to 2,293 yuan/ton [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend on Tuesday. The market sentiment is improved by the progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and although there is an increase in supply, the downstream demand has also improved [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - Cycle Views - Short - term: The methanol 2509 shows an oscillating pattern [1]. - Medium - term: It is oscillating with a slightly weaker tendency [1][5]. - Intraday: It is oscillating with a slightly stronger tendency, and the reference view is a stronger operation [1][5]. 3.2 Core Drivers - **Supply**: Although the production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol has declined, with multiple sets of devices restarting before the festival, the supply pressure has risen again, and the weekly production has reached a new high. As of the week of May 9, 2025, the average weekly methanol production in China reached 205.78 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.78 million tons, and a significant increase of 35.20 million tons compared with 170.58 million tons in the same period last year [5]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand has improved. The recovery of the futures profit of methanol - to - olefins has boosted the purchasing enthusiasm at ports, and the port inventory has been smoothly reduced [5]. - **Market Sentiment**: In the context of real - time progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, market risk appetite has been boosted. The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract rose 1.43% to 2277 yuan/ton in the night session on Monday [5].