快递行业研究框架培训 20250813 摘要 电商快递行业人工成本占比高，加盟制下需关注加盟生态竞争。2024 年电商快递包裹量增速超电商 GMV 及社会零售额增速，淘宝贡献包裹 量降至 30%以内，拼多多、抖音和快手分别达到 35%和 30%。 快递行业经历萌芽期、成长期、资本化期和出清末期四个阶段。价格战 导致总部单票盈利下降，监管干预后总部盈利改善，但终端价格受低价 电商压制，加盟商经营压力增加。 反内卷背景下，快递行业稳就业责任凸显，政策支持有望缓解加盟商业 绩恶化。广东省上调电商快递底价至约 1.4 元，浙江义乌等地也在进行 价格修复，2025 年旺季价格上涨及盈利改善是确定性的。 快递终端价格上涨对电商物流费用率影响有限，但对低价电商影响较大， 有助于电商结构优化。快递行业顺价接受程度高于其他中上游行业。 顺丰多元化布局，向中低端市场下沉导致客单价下降。公司调整战略， 通过四网融通减少冗余，每年降本 10 亿元，优化网络节点和路由拓扑 结构，提高运作效率。 Q&A 快递行业的细分赛道有哪些？各自的特点是什么？ 快递行业可以分为两个主要细分赛道：以通达系为代表的经济型快递和以顺丰 为代表的中高端时效 ...

Core Insights - In July, despite adverse weather conditions, China's logistics demand remained strong, with a logistics industry prosperity index of 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in logistics activities [1][2] Group 1: Logistics Industry Performance - The logistics industry maintained vitality, with e-commerce express and air logistics showing significant growth. The e-commerce express business activity index reached 69.3%, indicating a high prosperity level [1] - Air transportation business activity index was 52.8%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points. Road and rail transportation indices were 54.6% and 51.7%, respectively, both showing a slight month-on-month recovery of 0.1 percentage points [1] Group 2: Market Demand and New Orders - The new orders index for logistics companies rose to 52.5%, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points. Most sectors, except warehousing and water transportation, maintained new orders in the expansion zone [1] - Rail, road, and air transportation new orders indices increased by 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points, respectively [1] Group 3: Investment and Market Expectations - Fixed asset investment in the logistics sector showed continuous expansion, with a completion index of 54.9% in July, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The business activity expectation index for July was 55.6%, indicating a strong outlook, particularly in air transportation and postal express sectors, with indices of 58.9% and 57.2% respectively [2] - The "old-for-new" national subsidy policy and regional subsidies have further expanded consumption scenarios, contributing to the growth of logistics demand [2]