证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 29 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 国庆中秋假期出行有望迎来景气 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 9 月 22 日-2025 年 9 月 28 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）"通达兔"快递企业宣布上调上海市电商快递价格，全国快递涨价区域已达 93%。 根据东方网， 9 月 22 日极兔、中通、圆通、申通、韵达宣布上调上海地区快递收 件价格，电商件单票价格上涨 0.2-0. ...

Summary of the Express Delivery Industry Research Conference Call Industry Overview - The express delivery industry is characterized by high labor costs, with labor accounting for nearly 50% of total costs in both headquarters and franchise networks [4][7] - The industry is segmented into two main categories: economical express delivery represented by Tongda system and high-end express delivery represented by SF Express [2] Key Insights - In 2024, the growth rate of express delivery package volume is expected to exceed the growth rate of e-commerce GMV and social retail sales, with Taobao's contribution dropping below 30% and Pinduoduo, Douyin, and Kuaishou reaching 35% and 30% respectively [1][4] - The express delivery industry has undergone four stages: 1. **Emergence Phase (Pre-2011)**: The industry was just starting [5] 2. **Growth Phase (2011-2016)**: Package volume grew at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% [5] 3. **Capitalization Phase (2017-2021)**: Leading companies completed IPOs and expanded capacity, leading to an oversupply situation [5][6] 4. **Clearing Phase (2022-Present)**: Regulatory interventions have slowed the clearing process, but market share continues to concentrate among leading players [6] Financial Performance and Market Dynamics - Price wars have led to a decline in profitability, with headquarters' single ticket profit dropping from 0.5 yuan to around 0.2 yuan [8] - Recent regulatory interventions have improved profitability at headquarters, but terminal prices remain suppressed by low-cost e-commerce brands, increasing pressure on franchise operators [8] - The Guangdong province has raised the minimum price for e-commerce express delivery to approximately 1.4 yuan, which is expected to stabilize the market [9] Strategic Adjustments by SF Express - SF Express has diversified its operations into areas such as express freight, cold chain, and local delivery, while also penetrating the lower-end market, resulting in a decline in average order value from 25 yuan in 2019 to 15 yuan in 2021 [11] - The company has implemented a strategy to reduce redundancy and improve operational efficiency, aiming to cut costs by 1 billion yuan annually [12] - SF Express has undergone three major transformations, shifting from a franchise model to a direct operation model, enhancing service quality and operational efficiency [13] Future Outlook - SF Express plans to focus on industry transformation and international expansion, providing comprehensive logistics solutions and enhancing its cross-border logistics network through acquisitions [14][15] - The company has seen a decline in capital expenditures, stabilizing between 8 billion to 10 billion yuan annually, which has improved its operational and profitability metrics [16] - From 2024 to 2028, SF Express aims to gradually increase its cash dividend ratio from 35% to 40%, reflecting its transition into a value growth stock [17] Conclusion - The express delivery industry is poised for growth, driven by e-commerce trends and regulatory support, while companies like SF Express are strategically positioning themselves to enhance profitability and market share through operational efficiencies and diversified service offerings [1][10][18]

Core Insights - In July, despite adverse weather conditions, China's logistics demand remained strong, with a logistics industry prosperity index of 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in logistics activities [1][2] Group 1: Logistics Industry Performance - The logistics industry maintained vitality, with e-commerce express and air logistics showing significant growth. The e-commerce express business activity index reached 69.3%, indicating a high prosperity level [1] - Air transportation business activity index was 52.8%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.8 percentage points. Road and rail transportation indices were 54.6% and 51.7%, respectively, both showing a slight month-on-month recovery of 0.1 percentage points [1] Group 2: Market Demand and New Orders - The new orders index for logistics companies rose to 52.5%, indicating a month-on-month increase of 0.1 percentage points. Most sectors, except warehousing and water transportation, maintained new orders in the expansion zone [1] - Rail, road, and air transportation new orders indices increased by 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points, respectively [1] Group 3: Investment and Market Expectations - Fixed asset investment in the logistics sector showed continuous expansion, with a completion index of 54.9% in July, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The business activity expectation index for July was 55.6%, indicating a strong outlook, particularly in air transportation and postal express sectors, with indices of 58.9% and 57.2% respectively [2] - The "old-for-new" national subsidy policy and regional subsidies have further expanded consumption scenarios, contributing to the growth of logistics demand [2]