证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 12 月 30 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年12月30日 华源晨会精粹 20251230 固定收益 3-10Y 二永债配置价值凸显——资本补充工具月报：二永债一级发行方 面，11 月供给环比及同比上升。2025 年 1-11 月，银行二永债净融资主要来自国有 大行。二永债二级市场方面，二级资本债收益率和信用利差（减国债，下同）除 AA+ 品种以外普遍震荡下行，永续债收益率下行，但利差有所上升，中长期券种表现较 好。11 月，普信债与二永债走出分化行情，公募销售新规担忧仍在，二永债收益率 下行仍显犹豫。永续债-二级资本债品种利差整体偏低。保险次级债 11 月净融资规 模同比增加，券商次级债 11 月净融资规模同比有所下降。二级市场方面，除 10 年 期外，其他剩余期限券商次级债和保险资本补充债收益率和信用利差普遍有所下行。 二永债方面，建议关注利差分位数仍处高位 AA+级及以上 3-10Y 券种，可重点关注 5YAAA-永续债。保险、券商次级债方面，各评级 3-10Y 券商次级债和保险资本补 充债处于历史分位较高水平， ...

为更好地推动科技金融与科技产业化的发展，对母基金在中国资本市场里所发挥的重要作用进 行系统研究，发挥政府出资产业投资基金等的资源和战略优势，加强政府对社会资本的管理和 引导，促进社会资本流向创新创业型企业和实体经济，推动中国投资行业特别是母基金行业的 健康发展， "中国国际科技促进会母基金分会"（简称"科促会母基金分会"）成立。科促会母基 金分会领导班子所在机构及参会机构 共 8 7 家 ，科促会母基金分会于每周二更新相关机构的 一周资讯。 【内容提要】 1 .这个省落地了一支中行AIC基金 8 . 重庆政府引导性种子基金 "育苗"见效 汉佩生物完成千万元级融资 01 这个省落地了一支中行AIC基金 1 2月1 0日，"投资福州 投向未来"福建省闽榕中银AIC基金设立活动在福州举行，福建省委副 书记、福州市委书记郭宁宁出席并致辞，福建金投董事长万崇伟、副总经理王凌云参加活动。 该基金目标规模2 0亿元，由福建金投联合中国银行旗下中银资本共同发起设立。 2 . 江苏盐城绿色低碳产业专项母基金首支产业子基金注册落地 3 . 浙江省创新投资集团有限公司社会招聘公告 4 . 光明科创母基金启动运营，首批储备子基金同步 ...

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，氢能在十五五期间走向规模化的规划更加清晰。同时展现出 广阔的市场前景和生态价值，但是具备经济性、可持续性的商业模式仍是氢能迈向真正商业化的核心壁 垒。商业模式的打通有望率先从绿色燃料领域打通，该行推荐有望率先实现经济性的绿色甲醇生产环 节，首推具备绿色甲醇产能的金风科技(02208,002202.SZ)、阳光电源(300274.SZ)。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 十五五氢能产业有望迎来规模化阶段 10月28日，中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议发布。其中明确，前瞻布局 未来产业，探索多元技术路线、典型应用场景、可行商业模式、市场监管规则，推动包括氢能在内的新 兴产业等成为新的经济增长点。相较于十四五期间"组织实施未来产业孵化与加速计划，谋划布局一批 未来产业"的表述，氢能在十五五期间走向规模化的规划更加清晰。 行业处于商业化关键节点，下游消纳场景是关键 氢能产业链涵盖制取、储运、应用三大核心环节，形成了一个多维度、跨行业的能源生态体系。绿氢的 生产过程能有效消纳可再生能源电力，提高风电、光伏等清洁能源的利用效率。展现出广阔的市场前景 和生态价值。但是 ...

绿醇：政策有望驱动绿醇未来需求上行，绿色燃料投资元 年 20251203 摘要 IMO 政策通过经济奖惩措施推动航运业减碳，设定了 2028 年和 2035 年的温室气体减排目标，未达标将面临高额税收，超额完成则可交易碳 减排盈余，构建了阶梯性惩罚机制，激励企业采用更清洁的燃料。 绿色甲醇相较于 LNG、LPG 等传统燃料具有更高的减碳效应，更符合 IMO 的远期减排目标。虽然生物柴油和绿色天然气也具备高减排系数， 但绿色甲醇在市场供应和技术成熟度方面更具优势，有望成为主要发展 方向。 克拉克森预测显示，到 2030 年绿色甲醇燃料船需求在悲观、基础和乐 观情形下分别为 1,300 万吨、2000-4,000 万吨和 9,500 万吨，市场空 间巨大，但目前国内供给有限，未来市场增速可观。 成本测算表明，使用绿氨的燃料成本是重油的两倍多，但需综合考虑碳 排放成本和减排收益。随着 IMO 减排要求提高，重油船舶的碳排放成本 将持续上升，生物柴油和绿色甲醇预计分别在 2033 年和 2034 年实现 经济性。 Q&A 绿色甲醇在投资背景和经济性方面有哪些重要因素？ 在绿色甲醇的投资背景方面，国际海事组织（IMO） ...

周一早上，同事把一杯颜色有点抽象的饮料放到我电脑前，正是前段时间引发热议的网红饮品"白马王子汤"。"白马王子"走下流量的峰顶，现在终于好买 了不少。 这汤色蓝得像湖面反光，又绿得像滤镜开太大，也许这是"蒂芙尼蓝"的姐妹色？我鼓起勇气一口干下去，竟是酸酸甜甜的水果味，比它的颜值安分多了。 △同事请的"白马王子汤"。（图/晓洋 摄） 我以为它的迷幻汤色来自异国他乡。可翻查了一下，却惊讶地发现：这色彩的源头，很可能就在中国内蒙古。 01 就这么一句玩笑话，"白马王子汤"这五个字就在英国留学生圈里炸开了，后来还传到了国内社交分享平台。抽象的颜色、天真的愿望、外国超市的限定饮 料，所有元素都精准戳中年轻人的"好奇心"。 有人说它像刷锅水，有人说像厨房清洁剂，也有人说是格格巫才做得出来的东西。越"抽象"，越诱人。 这款"白马王子"饮料其实是英国果汁品牌Innocent旗下的"Blue Bolt"，里面主要含有椰子水、芭乐、柠檬和螺旋藻。巧合的是，西班牙版的名称直译正 是"蓝色王子"。2019年推出时，这饮料就因颜色在外国社交平台上引发"蓝绿争议"，相关的推文转发超过2500万次。 颜色诡异， 英国留子却爱惨了 "白马王子 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global shipping industry, which relies 90% on maritime transport, is undergoing unprecedented transformation driven by green fuels, digitalization, geopolitical factors, and supply chain restructuring [1]. Group 1: Industry Transformation - The maritime sector is at a critical juncture, with discussions focusing on how finance can reshape global shipping [1]. - The North Bund International Shipping Forum, marking its fifth anniversary, serves as a platform for exploring core issues and future scenarios in the shipping industry [1]. Group 2: Key Participants - The dialogue features prominent figures such as Jens Meyer, CEO of Hamburg Port Authority, Frederic Denefle, President of the International Union of Marine Insurance, and Marika-Laurent, Senior Vice President of Shipping Policy and Government Relations at Mediterranean Shipping Company [1].

Summary of the Conference Call for 富杰环保 Company Overview - **Company**: 富杰环保 (Fujie Environmental) - **Industry**: Green Methanol Production Key Points and Arguments 1. **Financial Performance**: In the first three quarters of 2025, 富杰环保 achieved a net profit of 2.42 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses, although the non-recurring net profit still showed a loss of 11.77 million yuan, indicating improvement year-on-year [2][3][4] 2. **Revenue Growth**: The company reported a revenue of 61 million yuan in Q3 2025, a 13% decrease year-on-year, but a cumulative revenue of 200 million yuan for the first three quarters, representing a 49% increase year-on-year [3] 3. **Cost Management**: The revenue and profit growth were attributed to an increase in orders and cost reduction measures, including refined management to lower capital costs and improve operational efficiency [2][3] 4. **Green Methanol Project**: The company is leading a pilot project for green methanol production, utilizing local wet waste and biomass resources, with the project expected to start material input next month [2][5] 5. **Production Cost**: The estimated production cost for green methanol at a scale of 100,000 tons is around 3,500 yuan per ton, with half of the cost attributed to raw materials like biogas [4][7][11] 6. **Sustainability Certification**: 富杰环保 has completed the ICC certification for raw materials and is in the process of obtaining production certification, expected to be completed in two to three months [8][9] 7. **Carbon Emission Advantage**: The company has achieved near-zero emissions through optimized processes that utilize carbon dioxide fully, with a production base located near ports to minimize transportation costs and emissions [10][22] 8. **Market Demand**: Shanghai plans to establish a million-ton capacity for green methanol by 2030, with local wet waste capable of producing approximately 400,000 tons of green methanol annually [20][21] 9. **Competitive Landscape**: Competitors like 上海申能 (Shanghai Sheneng) have a higher production cost of around 6,000 yuan per ton, indicating a competitive edge for 富杰环保 [19] 10. **Future Plans**: The company aims to start the design for the 100,000-ton industrialization project in 2026, contingent on technology maturity and government approvals [6][24] 11. **Investment and Cash Flow**: The pilot project has an investment exceeding 100 million yuan, with sufficient cash flow to support future investments in the 100,000-ton project [18] 12. **Policy Support**: While Shanghai has not yet implemented specific subsidies for green fuel, there is an expectation of supportive policies in the future to promote green shipping [23] Additional Important Information - **Raw Material Pricing**: The cost of biogas is calculated at 2 yuan per cubic meter, based on natural gas market prices [12] - **Production Efficiency**: One ton of wet waste can produce 100 cubic meters of biogas, which can be converted into 0.125 tons of green methanol [14] - **Commercialization Timeline**: The company plans to achieve commercialization by 2026, with potential future agreements with shipping companies [15] - **Traditional Business Outlook**: The traditional business segment is expected to maintain revenue between 300 million to 500 million yuan in the coming years, despite recent challenges [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The company has successfully implemented large-scale production of green methanol using proprietary gasification technology in collaboration with Hong Kong China Gas, positioning itself as a leader in Asia for this technology [1] Group 1: Company Developments - The joint investment platform with Hong Kong China Gas has led to the acquisition of Inner Mongolia Yigao Coal Chemical Technology Co., Ltd., which has achieved an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of green methanol and has been certified by the EU for three consecutive years [1] - The total planned investment for the project is 10 billion yuan, with plans to establish green methanol production bases across the country, targeting a total capacity of 1 million tons per year for green fuel and chemical supply [1] Group 2: Strategic Advantages - The company benefits from a significant geographical advantage in the Pearl River Delta, possessing large petrochemical storage bases and terminals, which supports its supply chain operations for various energy and chemical products [1] - The green methanol project is expected to leverage existing industrial resources for complementary and synergistic effects, enhancing the company's competitive edge and promoting long-term sustainable development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Fuan Energy, has successfully implemented large-scale production of green methanol using proprietary gasification technology in collaboration with Hong Kong and has achieved significant certifications and production milestones [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Fuan Energy, in partnership with Hong Kong Chinese Gas, has established an investment platform to acquire Inner Mongolia Yigao Coal Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. [1] - The company has achieved annual production of 50,000 tons of green methanol, which is now being sold in bulk [1] Group 2: Technology and Certifications - The green methanol production utilizes proprietary gasification technology from Hong Kong Chinese Gas, making it a leader in Asia for this technology [1] - The company has received EU ISCCEU and ISCCPLUS international certifications for three consecutive years and is registered in the EU Biofuels Alliance Database (UBD) [1] Group 3: Future Plans - The total planned investment for the project is 10 billion yuan, with plans to establish green methanol production bases across the country [1] - The company aims to create a total production capacity of 1 million tons per year for green fuels and chemical supply [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the green methanol industry, driven by new policies from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) aimed at achieving zero emissions in the shipping sector by 2050 [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **IMO's Revised Emission Targets**: The IMO has advanced its zero-emission target to 2050, requiring shipowners to adopt measures such as slow steaming and wind-assisted propulsion. The new carbon tax policy includes the entire lifecycle carbon emissions of fuels, making traditional fuels less viable [2][4]. - **Green Methanol as a Key Alternative**: Green methanol is gaining attention due to its high safety, controllable costs, and compliance with IMO carbon tax requirements. Under neutral assumptions, the demand for green methanol-powered vessels could reach 40 million tons by 2030, positioning it as a significant clean energy option [1][4][5]. - **Cost Comparisons**: A lifecycle model indicates that biodiesel and green methanol are approximately twice as expensive as heavy oil. However, as carbon costs for heavy oil rise, biodiesel and hydrogen-powered vessels are expected to reach price parity with heavy oil between 2033 and 2034 [6][8]. - **Impact of IMO's Delay**: The IMO's one-year delay in policy announcements does not imply a relaxation of regulations. Historical trends show that IMO's environmental policies are strictly enforced, suggesting that companies should prepare for stricter standards in the coming years [7][8]. Additional Important Insights - **Current Market Prices for Emission Reduction**: The market trading price for current emission reduction costs ranges from $100 to $300 per ton. Biodiesel and green methanol can achieve price parity with heavy oil under certain conditions, such as specific pricing for green electricity and biodiesel [8][9]. - **Production Processes for Green Methanol**: Green methanol production involves several processes, including using green electricity, capturing CO2 from industrial sources, and utilizing biogas. Companies like Aerospace Engineering and Donghua Technology are positioned to benefit from these developments [9][10]. - **Trends in Green Fuel Development**: Both domestic and international trends in green fuel development are positive, with significant support from government policies and initiatives. Companies with green electricity resources, such as Goldwind Technology, are expected to gain advantages in this evolving market [11][12]. Conclusion - The green methanol industry is poised for growth due to regulatory pressures and the need for sustainable alternatives in shipping. Companies involved in the production and technology of green fuels are likely to see increased opportunities as the market evolves towards stricter environmental standards.