每日市场洞察 – 2025年12月17日 | Ultima Markets 昨日公布的延迟美国劳动力与消费数据对经济前景造成"双重冲击"，显示经济动能明显减弱，强化了2026年美联储进一步宽松的预期。 非农就业数据表现疲弱 延迟发布的10–11月非农就业（NFP）数据显示美国劳动力市场混合但令人担忧： 更重要的是，失业率从4.4%升至4.6%，为四年来最高水平。虽然招聘并未完全停滞，但失业率上升表明劳动力市场宽松速度超过预期。 这一发展强化了2026年美联储进一步降息的理由，市场对降息预期已超过最新点阵图显示的单次降息水平。 消费与商业活动动能减弱 消费者支出和商业信心指标的疲软进一步印证了经济降温迹象： 技术面显示美元在初跌后出现短期反弹，表明市场部分反应已提前计入。然而整体前景依然不明朗。 目前的任何反弹可能是"逢高卖出"机会，关键水平为98.00，阻力位在98.70附近，除非数据超预期，否则美元仍承压。 风险资产与美国指数展望 最新美国经济数据指向早期放缓迹象，使风险情绪趋缓。尽管企业盈利和板块韧性支撑市场，短期上行空间有限，暗示近期可能在高位盘整。 显示高企的价格和劳动力市场走软正在抑制家庭需求，尤其 ...

Core Insights - The focus of the market is on the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, which has become a decisive factor in the divergent policy paths of the Federal Reserve [1] - The recent FOMC meeting revealed deep divisions within the Federal Reserve, with a 25 basis point rate cut implemented but three formal dissenting votes, the highest since 2019, indicating differing priorities [2] - The NFP report is expected to significantly influence market narratives for early 2026, with potential for volatile reactions based on the data [4] Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is currently adjusting its policies based on weekly economic data rather than following a predetermined path, making the dot plot for 2026 less reliable [3] - There are contrasting views within the Fed: hawkish members emphasize the need for moderate tightening due to high inflation, while dovish members advocate for larger rate cuts due to a weakening labor market [8] Market Reactions to NFP - A weak NFP report (less than 80,000 new jobs) would confirm a cooling labor market, supporting dovish views and potentially causing the dollar index (DXY) to drop below 98.00, while gold prices may rise [8] - Conversely, a strong NFP report (more than 180,000 new jobs with robust wage growth) would indicate economic resilience, supporting hawkish views and possibly pushing DXY up to 99.50, while gold could retreat to around $4,150 [8] Asset Outlook - The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is currently under pressure below 98.00, awaiting the NFP data to trigger directional movement; a weak report could accelerate the bearish trend [5] - Technical analysis indicates that 98.00 is a critical support level for USDX, with potential for further declines if the NFP data falls short of expectations [6] - Gold continues to benefit from a weaker dollar, although recent short-term pullbacks suggest caution among bulls ahead of the NFP report [7] Summary and Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions between inflation hawks and labor market doves mean that monetary policy for 2026 remains uncertain and will be dictated by upcoming economic data [12] - The NFP report is crucial for determining market direction: weak data would support dovish sentiment and suppress the dollar, while strong data would bolster hawkish sentiment and could trigger a dollar rebound [12] - Following the NFP volatility, attention will shift to the upcoming CPI release to assess inflation trends in relation to labor market dynamics [12]

核心CPI： 剔除食品和能源等波动性较大的项目后，核心CPI环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.8%，凸显出潜在的通胀压 力仍未消退。 CPI整体数据： 2025年4月13日公布的美国4月消费者物价指数（CPI）显示，通胀同比持续降温，为消费者与政策制定 者带来一定宽慰。然而，月度数据却呈现出不同的故事。 4月美国消费者物价环比上涨0.2%，扭转了3月0.1%的下跌，出乎市场预期的0.3%下降。同比来看，CPI 上涨2.3%，为自2021年初以来的最低年通胀率。 | | | Ultima Markets | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Currency | Event | | Actual | Forecast | Previous | | USD | CPI m/m | | 0.2% | -0.3% | KUNYA -D'12 | | USD | Care CPI m/m | | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | | USD | CPl y/y | | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2,4% | | USD | Core CPl y/y | | ...