个人观点，仅供观看 2025年11月17日，比特币价格跌破9.3万美元，较10月初历史高点跌幅超20%，正式进入熊市区域。同日，美国比特币ETF单日净流出8.7亿美元，相当于3个 特斯拉Model 3的年产量价值，创该品类上市以来第二大单日撤资规模。这场市场动荡背后，是美联储六年以来最激烈的政策分歧与美国政府19.8万枚比特 币战略储备的双重影响。 一、现象：资金出逃与价格崩塌 加密货币市场结构正在发生根本性变化。Kaiko数据显示，比特币市场深度较今年高点下降30%，意味着大额交易可能引发更大价格波动。CoinGlass统计显 示，11月17日单日加密货币杠杆清算规模达10.4亿美元，过去两周累计清算已超45亿美元，相当于225万部iPhone 15的销售额。这种流动性恶化与杠杆爆仓 的恶性循环，使市场波动率攀升至2022年FTX崩盘以来最高水平。 政策不确定性正在引发市场资金大规模撤离。11月13日至17日当周，美国比特币ETF累计净流出11.1亿美元，其中贝莱德IBIT单周流出5.32亿美元，富达 FBTC流出8900万美元。过去三周，这类基金已合计失血26.4亿美元，相当于2艘尼米兹级航母的造价，占其 ...

| < W | COMEX黄金 | | | a | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | GC.CMX | | | | | 4040.2 | 昨结 4074.5 | | 开盘 | 4045.6 | | -34.3 -0.84% | 总手 9.30万 | | 现于 | 7 | | 最高价 4055.4 | 持 仓 24.74万 | | 外盘 | 4.55万 | | 最低价 3997.4 | 增 仓 3707 | | 内 盘 | 4.74万 | | 分时 | 5日 日K 周K 月K | | 自治 | (0) | | 晉加 | | | 盘口 | | | 4151.6 | | 1.89％ 卖1 4040.3 | | 2 | | | | | 6607 Lis | 3 | | | | | 04:53 4040.7 | 1 | | 4074.5 | | | 04:53 4040.6 | 1 | | | | 0 00% 04:53 4040.7 | | T | | | | | 04:53 4040.3 | 1 | | | | | 04:53 4040.2 | 1 | | | | | 04:5 ...

周二（11月18日）亚市早盘中美元指数报99.531，日内涨幅扩大至0.36%，近三日在99.20-99.60区间震 荡偏强运行，已逼近区间上沿。美联储政策分歧主导短期走势，技术面多头结构初现，需重点关注鲍威 尔讲话对99.60阻力位的突破指引，站稳则上看99.80，若回落失守99.40短期支撑或下探99.20关键位。 经济数据方面，美国核心PCE物价指数超预期表现强化了政策谨慎的必要性，也为美元提供了实质支 撑，推动美元指数站稳关键位置。当前市场焦点高度集中于美联储主席鲍威尔的最新讲话，其对利率政 策的表态将成为短期美元指数方向的核心催化剂，指引市场重新锚定政策路径预期。 美元指数技术分析 美元指数自11月3日触及98.865阶段性低点后震荡回升，日线图已站稳20日均线支撑，形成"W底"形态 雏形。截至11月18日，近四个交易日在99.20-99.60区间窄幅整理，17日盘中最高99.477、最低99.245， 蓄势突破特征明显，短期多头结构占优但尚未形成明确趋势。支撑位呈阶梯式分布，首要支撑为99.20 （近期震荡中枢下沿），失守后下看99.10短期多空分水岭，关键强支撑在98.90；阻力端重点关注99. ...

最近一段时间，美联储官员们接二连三地发表讲话，传递出的信息却不太一致。这让市场对十二月份是 否降息心里直打鼓。眼看着联邦公开市场委员会十二月会议日渐临近，关于利率走向的讨论越来越热 闹。 市场预期急速转变，降息概率大幅缩水 金融市场早就嗅到了这些变化。最新数据显示，投资者对十二月降息的预期概率已经跌到了47%左右， 与十月份会议前百分之百的预期相比，简直天差地别。这种预期的剧烈转变，说明市场正在重新审视美 联储的政策走向。 细心人还注意到，美联储内部的分歧不仅存在于有投票权的委员之间，没有投票权的官员们也积极参与 讨论。虽然这些人没有最终投票权，但他们的观点会影响整个议息氛围。 经济比想象中坚韧，官员们态度谨慎 明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利最近说了句实在话：当前经济的表现比他原先预计的要强。他发现，虽 然低收入人群的信贷市场有些吃紧，但大多数企业业绩不错，对未来也挺有信心。这种冷暖交织的经济 现状，让他对十二月的会议持开放心态——降息或不降息，他都觉得有道理。 抱有类似观望态度的不止他一位。旧金山联储主席戴利同一天也坦言，现在就对十二月会议下结论还为 时过早。她觉得当前政策处在"中性"状态，需要再看看后续数据 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite a short-term pullback in gold prices, the long-term upward trend remains intact due to gold's strong safe-haven asset characteristics [3] - The recent end of the U.S. government shutdown has shifted market focus towards economic data, increasing uncertainty due to diverging views on Federal Reserve policy [2][3] - Gold ETF funds have seen significant net inflows, with a total of 3.31 billion yuan over three days, indicating strong investor interest [3] Group 2 - As of November 13, 2025, the gold ETF fund has experienced a 4.77% increase over the past week, with a current price of 9.13 yuan [1] - On November 13, spot gold prices fell by 0.54% to $4,172.84 per ounce, with a notable drop of over $100 during the day due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [2] - The trading volume for the gold ETF fund reached 5.39 billion yuan, with an average daily turnover of 13.43 billion yuan over the past week [1]

相关分析指出，美国政府结束停摆后市场关注经济数据，美联储政策分歧加剧市场不确定性。欧元区经 济数据疲软，全球经济前景不明朗支撑黄金避险需求。 11月13日，金价延续走强，盘中受美联储官员鹰派言论影响快速跳水，尾盘小幅回升，日内波动超100 美元，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货跌0.93%报4174.5美元/盎司，截至亚市收盘，黄金ETF华夏(518850) 涨1.6%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨3.07%。 消息面上，美国结束了持续43天史上最长联邦政府"停摆"。美联储官员释放鹰派言论，其中美联储卡什 卡利表示，他不支持美联储上一次的降息决定，但对12月的政策会议应采取何种行动仍未作出决定。美 联储穆萨勒姆表示，鉴于通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，决策者在进一步降息方面应保持谨慎。美联储 哈马克表示，美联储应维持利率不变，以继续降低通胀。 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Recently, the gold price has shown a volatile consolidation pattern. New York gold fluctuates around the $4,000 mark, and the corresponding Shanghai gold fluctuates around 915 yuan [6][23]. - Factors influencing the gold price recently include: Fed policy divergence leading market sentiment, with multiple officials making hawkish statements, reducing the expectation of a December interest rate cut and pressuring the gold price; the risk of a US government shutdown and the delay in key economic data release weakening the US dollar's fundamentals and providing some safe - haven support for the gold price; the US dollar index hitting a three - month high, suppressing the gold price, but a short - term pullback in the US dollar index and pressure at the 100 mark corresponding to a recovery sign in the gold price [6][23]. - In the short term, the gold price is under pressure. Continuously monitor the long - short game of New York gold at $4,000. In the medium - to - long term, the safe - haven allocation demand for gold still exists. If it declines, pay attention to the support at $3,900 and the 60 - day moving average [6][23]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report presents a chart of the US dollar index linkage, but no specific content about the weekly trend is described [10]. 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | November 7 | October 31 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,007.80 | $4,013.40 | - 0.14% | | COMEX Silver | $48.23 | $48.25 | - 0.05% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 921.26 yuan | 921.92 yuan | - 0.07% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 11,484.00 yuan | 11,441.00 yuan | 0.38% | | US Dollar Index | 99.55 | 99.73 | - 0.18% | | US Dollar against Off - shore RMB | 7.12 | 7.12 | 0.03% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.83 | 1.81 | + 0.02 | | S&P 500 | 6,728.80 | 6,840.20 | - 1.63% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $59.84 | $60.88 | - 1.71% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 83.11 | 83.18 | - 0.09% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | 80.22 | 80.58 | - 0.45% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,042.06 tons | 1,039.20 tons | + 2.86 tons | | iShare Gold ETF | 481.84 tons | 483.00 tons | - 1.16 tons | [11] 2. Gold Price Volatility - Last week, the US dollar index rose and then fell, once breaking through the 100 mark and the high in late July. As the US dollar pulled back, the gold price gradually strengthened in the short term [13]. - Last week, market risk appetite declined, and the US stock market declined and then stabilized [15]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Last week, the gold price stabilized with fluctuations, and the outflow from ETFs slowed down [17]. - Last week, precious metals stabilized with fluctuations, and the gold - silver ratio fluctuated weakly [19]. 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, stating the current consolidation pattern of the gold price, influencing factors, short - term pressure, and medium - to - long - term safe - haven demand [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is to maintain a wait - and - see attitude due to the Fed's hawkish stance and a relatively strong US dollar index. For copper, the long - term outlook is positive, supported by macro - economic easing and expected supply contractions [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - **Price Performance**: Gold prices are in a high - level consolidation phase, with New York gold mainly fluctuating around the $4,000 key psychological level [3]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's policy divergence dominates market sentiment, with some officials advocating a restrictive policy to control inflation and others open to rate cuts. The US government shutdown risk provides some safe - haven support for gold, while the strengthening US dollar suppresses gold prices. The short - term pullback of the US dollar index around 100 corresponds to a rebound in gold prices. Attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $4,000 level of New York gold [3]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term (within a week), the view is "swing"; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is "swing"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "wait - and - see" [1][3]. Copper (CU) - **Price Performance**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and falling, and the main contract price stabilized around 85,000 yuan, with a slowdown in the decline of open interest [4]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed's hawkish stance has cooled the market sentiment, and LME copper is at a five - year high, causing short - term long - position closure. However, in the long - run, macro - economic easing and supply contractions are expected to support copper prices. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 85,000 yuan level [4]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short - term, the view is "bullish"; in the medium - term, it is "strong"; the intraday view is "swing - bullish", and the reference view is "long - term bullish" [1][4].

Market Overview - The global largest gold ETF held 1,040.35 tons as of November 6, with an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data shows a significant increase in corporate layoffs by 175.3% year-on-year in October, with a loss of 9,100 jobs reported [3] - The Chicago Fed reported an unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, the highest in four years [3] - Retail hiring for the holiday season is expected to be the lowest since the financial crisis, although consumer spending may exceed $1 trillion [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces increasing policy divergence, with a 72% probability of another rate cut in December [3] - The Bank of England has removed the term "cautious," potentially paving the way for a rate cut in December [3] Gold Market - Spot gold closed at $3,977.16 per ounce, reflecting a resurgence of risk-averse sentiment amid government shutdown concerns and tariff uncertainties [3] Currency Strategies - For EUR/USD, a bullish strategy is suggested above 1.1515, targeting 1.1560 and then 1.1580 [4] - For gold, a bearish strategy is recommended below 3,995, targeting 3,964 and then 3,948 [8] - For USD/JPY, a bearish outlook is anticipated below 153.70, targeting 152.70 and then 152.30 [11] - For GBP/USD, a bullish strategy is advised above 1.3070, targeting 1.3165 and then 1.3195 [14] - For AUD/USD, a bearish strategy is suggested below 0.6500, targeting 0.6460 and then 0.6440 [17]

Core Insights - The US Dollar Index has surpassed the 100 mark for the first time since early August, reaching a peak of 100.21, marking a three-month high [1] - The internal policy divergence within the Federal Reserve is identified as a direct catalyst for the short-term rebound of the dollar [1] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have significantly decreased from 94% to 69%, which has quickly driven the dollar's recovery [1] Group 1 - The US government shutdown has entered its 35th day, tying the record for the longest shutdown in US history [1] - Despite being seen as a potential negative for the dollar, the shutdown has temporarily reinforced the dollar's safe-haven status [1] - The risks associated with the shutdown are primarily related to internal fiscal execution rather than external repayment capabilities [1] Group 2 - The dollar is expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern in the short term, although its upward movement may be limited [1] - If the government shutdown continues, the decision-making process for the Federal Reserve may become more challenging, leading the market to reassess the sustainability of dollar policies [1]