报告导读： 上周全球市场多数收跌，估值有所下降，港股卖空占比低位反弹。资金面上， 美联储内部政策分歧加剧，降息不确定性增多，年内或降息 1.8 次左右。基本面上，上周 美国经济预期出现改善，全球股市盈利预期普遍下修。 市场表现：上周全 球市场多数收跌。 股市方面， MSCI 全球 -0.2% ，其中 MSCI 发达市场 -0.2% 、 MSCI 新兴市场 -0.6% 。债市方面，美国 10Y 国 债利率大幅上升。大宗方面，银价大幅上涨，金价涨幅靠后。汇率方面，美元升，英镑贬，日元贬，人民币贬。分板块看，上周全球能源材料与公共事业等防 御板块表现突出。 交投情绪：上周全球成交普遍走弱，港股卖空占比低位反弹。 从成交看，上周恒指、日经 225 、标普 500 、欧洲 Stoxx50 、韩国 Kospi200 成交下降。 从投资者情绪看，港股投资者情绪环比下降、处历史偏高位，美股投资者情绪下降、处历史偏高位。从波动率看，上周港股、美股波动率下降，欧股、日股波 动率上升。从估值看，上周发达市场、新兴市场整体估值均较前周下降。 盈利预期：上周全球股市盈利预期普遍下修，部分市场能源材料盈利预期上修。 横向对比来看，上周美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in balancing its dual mandate of controlling inflation and supporting employment, with recent comments from Chairman Powell indicating a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [1][2][3]. Economic Data and Trends - Recent economic data shows a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate and a deceleration in job growth, leading to heightened risks in the labor market [2][5]. - Inflation has recently risen and remains at a high level, influenced by tariff news, although long-term inflation expectations are still aligned with the Fed's 2% target [2][3]. Monetary Policy Stance - Powell indicated that even after the recent rate cut of 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25%, the Fed's policy stance remains slightly restrictive [3][4]. - The Fed's policy is not on a preset path and will continue to adapt based on incoming data and evolving economic conditions [3][4]. Divergence Among Fed Officials - There are significant differences among Fed officials regarding the outlook for interest rates, with Vice Chair Bowman emphasizing the need to address labor market issues without overemphasizing inflation risks [5][6]. - Bowman expressed concerns about the Fed lagging in responding to deteriorating labor market conditions and suggested a proactive approach to policy adjustments [6]. - In contrast, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee urged caution regarding further rate cuts, citing persistent inflation above target levels [7].

Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.56%, closing at 98.17, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts following comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - Spot gold prices fell by 0.35%, ending at $3368.97 per ounce after reaching a near two-week high, marking the end of a four-day rally [1][2] - Spot silver remained relatively stable, closing up 0.05% at $37.809 per ounce [1][2] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical tension between the US and Russia is intensifying, with President Trump indicating a potential three-party summit next week, while Senator Rubio warned of possible secondary sanctions against Russia within 24-36 hours, creating a mixed risk environment that raises safe-haven premiums [3] - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve policy are increasing, with Kashkari advocating for two interest rate cuts this year, which reinforces easing expectations, while Trump's potential appointment of a temporary Fed board member poses risks to the credibility of monetary policy [3] Commodity Trading Insights - Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern in the short term, with gold's safe-haven premium strengthening [4] - A strong support level for gold is identified around $3400, while a resistance level is seen near $3450, which may present a breakthrough opportunity [4] - Silver, despite facing pressure from tariffs affecting industrial demand, could see a rebound if it holds above the critical support level of $37, with potential to challenge the $38 mark [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a critical turning point in August, driven by increasing divergence in Federal Reserve policy and adjustments in global tariff policies, leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% during the July meeting, but internal disagreements have become more pronounced [3]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized the need for more data to confirm the downward trend in inflation and noted that tariff policy adjustments could reshape inflation prospects [3]. - There is a split within the Fed, with some members supporting a rate cut in September due to concerns over high rates suppressing business investment, while others warn that premature cuts could trigger a second wave of inflation [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that the core CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year in June, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3]. - Rising prices in various sectors, including a 0.4% increase in clothing prices and a 1.9% surge in household appliance prices, indicate growing inflationary pressures [3]. - The Markit manufacturing PMI for July fell back into contraction territory, reflecting the lowest business confidence in the past two and a half years [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The upcoming month is expected to see accelerated gold market activity, with key central bank meetings and important economic data releases on the horizon [6]. - Significant dates include the Bank of England's rate decision on August 7, the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision on August 12, and the Jackson Hole global central bank conference on August 21 [6]. - The market is poised for potential peaks in gold prices, with various economic indicators set to be released, including U.S. retail sales and CPI data [6].

在周三（7月30日）的欧洲交易时段，现货黄金市场无疑吸引了众多投资者的高度关注。开盘伊始，市 场便展现出蓬勃的交易活力，价格于3320至3335美元区间内震荡运行，每一轮价格波动都牵动着市场情 绪的敏感神经。据最新报价显示，当前伦敦现货黄金价格定格在每盎司3331美元，相较于昨日实现小幅 攀升，日内涨幅录得0.14%。期间，金价强势突破3330.00美元/盎司的重要关口，并一度冲高至3333.93 美元/盎司的阶段性高点。 【要闻速递】 在周三即将召开的美联储会议上，或将迎来一场打破30余年传统的变革——多位理事有望同时投出反对 票。其中，理事沃勒与鲍曼近期公然表态支持降息，这与主席鲍威尔秉持的谨慎观望态度形成强烈反 差。尤为引人关注的是，这两位理事均由特朗普亲自任命。近来，特朗普频频向美联储施压，不仅突击 造访其总部，还公开质疑鲍威尔的领导能力，甚至在鲍威尔明年5月任期届满前，便已悄然开启下任主 席人选的角逐大幕。据历史数据记载，美联储理事集体提出异议的情况极为少见，上次发生此类事件还 要回溯至1993年，此后长达259次会议都未曾重现这一景象。 17:00欧元区第二季度GDP年率初值 17:00欧元区7月 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's policy divergence is increasing, with a 56.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, while 41.2% expect rates to remain unchanged [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller is a leading internal candidate to succeed Powell as chairman, especially given his support for rate cuts this year [3] - There are allegations from Republican congressmen that Powell committed perjury, leading to proposed criminal charges [3] Group 2 - Gold is currently fluctuating within the range of 3375 to 3310, experiencing volatile trading patterns, with a recent low of 3310 before rebounding [5] - Following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs on August 1, gold's safe-haven appeal has increased, leading to a breakout above the 3375 resistance level, reaching nearly 3400 [5] - The bullish sentiment for gold is strong, with daily gains opening up the upper Bollinger Band space, and short-term outlook remains bullish despite pressure at the 3400 level [5][6] Group 3 - Silver has been trading in a high range between 37.3 and 35, successfully breaking through the 37.3 resistance to reach a new high of 39 [9] - The bullish market structure for silver is reinforced by daily and weekly charts showing upward momentum, with MA5 and MA10 maintaining a bullish crossover [9] - The focus for silver trading is on the support level around 38, with expectations for continued bullish movement [9]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing policy divergence, with a 56.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, while 41.2% believe rates will remain unchanged [3] - Several Federal Reserve officials have expressed differing views, with some adopting a hawkish stance and others favoring rate cuts within the year [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller is a leading internal candidate to succeed Powell as chair, particularly given his clear support for rate cuts this year [3] Group 2 - Gold has been fluctuating within the range of 3375 to 3310, showing weak continuation in both bullish and bearish trends, with rapid conversion frequency [5] - After failing to break through the 3375 level, gold experienced a significant pullback, indicating strong short positions, but has since rebounded to the 3350 level [5] - The Bollinger Bands for gold are in a constricted state, limiting price movements and resulting in a volatile trading pattern [5] Group 3 - Silver has maintained a high level of volatility after reaching 37.3, successfully breaking through the 37.3 resistance and hitting a new historical high at 39 [8] - The bullish market sentiment for silver is strengthening, with daily charts indicating a consolidation phase before further upward movement [8] - The focus for trading silver should be on the 37.2 to 37.5 range for long positions [8]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market are influenced by multiple factors, leading to rising long-term yields while short-term rate cut expectations diminish [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Long-term US Treasury yields have increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 9 basis points to 4.44% over two weeks [1] - The yield curve has steepened, with the 30-year yield increasing by 14 basis points [1] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions have created uncertainty regarding future interest rate paths, impacting market expectations [1] Group 2: Treasury Issuance and Fiscal Position - In early July, there was a slight decrease in short-term Treasury issuance, while long-term issuance saw a minor increase [1] - The US recorded a fiscal surplus of $27.01 billion in June, with a 12-month cumulative deficit slightly decreasing to $1.90 trillion [1] Group 3: Market Positioning and Speculation - As of July 15, net short positions in Treasury futures have slightly decreased to 5.74 million contracts, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - The Federal funds futures market transitioned from net short to net long positions, rising to 49,300 contracts, reflecting increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 4: Liquidity and Economic Indicators - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased by $60.15 billion over two weeks, while the Federal Reserve's reverse repo tool shrank by $56.45 billion, indicating a release of liquidity [1] - The Federal Reserve's weekly indicator showed a reading of 2.37, suggesting a stabilization in the short-term outlook [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a decline in gold prices, with international gold prices dropping from $3,450 to the $3,300-$3,200 range [1] - The gold market is currently facing a complex interplay of policy and geopolitical factors, with the Federal Reserve's recent decision to maintain interest rates causing confusion in market expectations [3] - Seasonal factors are also influencing the gold market, as summer is traditionally a low-demand season for gold, but geopolitical risks may limit the extent of price declines compared to previous years [3] Group 2 - The recent reduction in geopolitical tensions has shifted market focus to the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with internal divisions among Fed officials contributing to gold price volatility [4] - A key variable that may impact gold prices is the upcoming expiration of the U.S. tariff pause on China, which could either increase inflation expectations and boost gold's appeal or lead to a decrease in demand for gold if risk appetite improves [4] - The period from July to early August is identified as a critical window for trading opportunities in the gold market, with promotional offers from leading gold trading platforms to attract investors [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility due to Trump's tariff policies, entering a technical bear market in early April, but has since rebounded strongly, with all three major indices recovering losses and the Nasdaq approaching historical highs [1] - The S&P 500 recorded its best monthly performance of 2023, indicating a strong recovery despite ongoing trade tensions and tariff policy uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The U.S. CPI annual rate fell to 2.3%, the lowest in recent years, showing a continued decline in inflation, yet concerns about consumer confidence and policy uncertainty have led to warnings from several Federal Reserve officials about potential inflation and unemployment risks [3] - The U.S. GDP recorded negative growth in Q1, marking the worst performance since October 2022, raising concerns about stagflation, which poses greater risks than a simple recession [3] - The "Big and Beautiful Act" promoted by Trump is projected to reduce tax revenue by approximately $3.75 trillion over the next decade and increase the fiscal deficit by $2.4 trillion, leading to a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's [3] Group 3 - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, with dovish members viewing tariff impacts as temporary and advocating for a wait-and-see approach, while hawkish members emphasize the uncertainty of trade negotiations and advocate for maintaining stable interest rates [4] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts has been pushed back, with low probabilities for cuts in June, and potential cuts not expected until July or September, which may limit further gains in the stock market [4] - The stock market has shown signs of high-level consolidation, with the Dow Jones facing resistance around the 43,400 level [4]