全球央行政策分化与去美元化形成博弈。日央行加息、欧央行慎降息，缩小美元利差优势；2025年金价 暴涨超70%反映美元信用担忧，但美元储备结算地位暂难替代，避险属性仍存。 技术面要点 美元指数突破短期阻力，站上多条短期均线。支撑位98.455、98.230；阻力位98.660、99.381。RSI逼近 超买，需警惕回调风险。 短期维持趋势性博弈，全年或偏弱但有阶段性反弹。重点关注美联储政策、非农及PCE数据、地缘风险 与关税案。机构预测2026年或跌3%，经济韧性与政策不确定性可能引发反弹。 1月8日，美元指数走强，纽约收盘涨0.5%至109.090。主要汇率表现：欧元兑美元1.0309、英镑兑美元 1.2357(均下跌)；美元兑日元158.46、瑞郎0.9117、加元1.4389(均上涨)。核心驱动为美联储政策分歧、 美经济数据分化及全球央行政策差异。 美联储政策分歧主导美元波动。2025年三次降息后，2026年官员及机构分歧达十年峰值：部分主张降息 超100基点，部分建议暂停降息甚至加息；鲍威尔任期将结束，接任者政策倾向不明，加剧市场迷茫。 美经济数据好坏交织：1月CPI反弹至3.0%支撑美元，但零售销售跌 ...

美联储政策走向及内部分歧是美元走势核心变量。12月美联储完成年内第三次降息至3.5%-3.75%，但官 员立场对立：鹰派主张维持利率，鸽派呼吁放宽。CME数据显示，市场预期明年1月降息概率仅21%， 政策不确定性压制美元上涨。 圣诞假期临近导致外汇流动性下降，美元波动受情绪驱动。12月25日亚盘，美元连跌三日，跌破98.50 支撑位，确认弱势。截至12月25日美元报97.8691，微跌0.08%，维持低位震荡。 2025年12月25日，美元指数（DXY）盘中触及97.80，收于97.95，创10月3日以来两月新低。截至当 日，年内累计跌幅超9%，有望创下2017年以来最大年度跌幅、逼近八年最差纪录。美联储政策分歧、 降息预期升温、非美货币走强及美国经济隐忧等因素，令美元短期弱势难改，中长期波动加剧。 投行普遍认为政策不确定性将持续压制美元。专家指出，2025年累计降息75个基点后，2026年降息预期 收窄，美联储或"缓降息"，若经济或通胀好转，美元仍有反弹可能。 机构提醒，短期需关注美国GDP修正数据及消费者信心数据；中长期需跟踪美联储表态、主席提名、地 缘风险及"去美元化"进程，做好风险对冲。 美元指数是全 ...

有色60ETF（159881）涨超1.5%，工业金属供需格局引关注。 每日经济新闻 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 华创证券指出，铝价在美联储"鹰派"降息后短暂走弱，但全球铝库存小幅下行，LME+国内铝库存维持 在120万-125万吨，安全库存处于低位。海外项目因电力问题减产叠加印尼增量释放缓慢，未来2-3年全 球铝供需或维持紧平衡，库存或持续低位，对铝价形成支撑。铜铝比创年内新高，历史铜铝比多处于 3.3-3.7，意味着铝仍有补涨空间，若美国因缺电逻辑减产，铝价弹性可能更强。电解铝行业利润有望维 持高位，氧化铝价格下行带动吨铝成本下降，行业平均利润约5500元/吨，且企业现金流改善、资本开 支强度低，红利属性凸显。短期金属价格或受美联储政策分歧影响震荡，但铝的基本面和金融属性支撑 其长期表现。 ...

每日市场洞察 – 2025年12月16日 | Ultima Markets 今日市场焦点完全集中在美国非农就业（NFP）报告，这一原本常规的经济数据已成为美联储政策路径分歧中最终的"决胜票"。 FOMC回顾：央行分裂 上周FOMC会议显示美联储内部深度分歧。尽管委员会实施了25个基点的降息，但三项正式异议——自2019年以来最多——凸显了不同优先事项， 使市场对2026年缺乏明确指引。 这种分歧意味着点阵图（显示2026年缓慢降息节奏）比以往可靠性更低。美联储现正根据每周经济数据动态调整，而非遵循预设路径。 NFP前瞻：今日至关重要 由于美联储在通胀鹰派与劳动力鸽派之间存在分歧，今日的NFP报告将决定2026年初市场主导叙事。市场预计可能出现二元且波动剧烈的反应： 关键结论：今日NFP报告不仅将决定美元与黄金的近期定位，也将定义市场对2026年美联储宽松节奏的早期预期。交易者应预期高度波动，并围绕 关键支撑与阻力位布局。 资产展望：USDX与黄金 USDX展望 美元指数（USDX）承压于98.00以下，等待今日非农数据触发潜在方向性走势。若NFP数据疲软，将加速近期看跌趋势，推动美元下行；仅极强的 报告才能支 ...

特朗普突然取消了原定本周举行的美联储主席候选人面试，表明这一关键职位的人选实际上已经敲定，长期担任特朗普经济顾问的哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）"呼之欲出"。 周三，据有"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos最新报道，特朗普团队通知候选人，原定周三与副总统万斯的面试已被取消。知情人士透露，团队未说明取 消原因，也不确定是否会重新安排会议，白宫仅以"日程冲突"回应。而据Nick Timiraos前一日报道，尽管美联储主席候选人面试仍在进行中，但特朗普似乎内 定哈塞特担任这一职位。 近期特朗普接连发出明确信号，"哈塞特"当选美联储主席几乎被敲定。特朗普周日曾告诉记者"我知道我要选谁"，当被问及是否是哈塞特时，他只是笑而不语。 但周二内阁会议上，特朗普明表示候选人名单已"缩减至一人"。在稍后的活动中，他当着在场的哈塞特的面，直接称其为"潜在的美联储主席"。 这一表态实际上终结了高级顾问精心设计的面试流程。财政部长贝森特此前将11名初始候选人筛选至5人，并计划本周继续面试以向总统推荐最终名单，如今 这一程序已被特朗普亲自"取消"。 被视为领跑者的哈塞特原本也在与万斯及白宫官员会面的名单中。其他入围者 ...

周线级别，汇率已五连阴并跌破2020年以来上升趋势线，空头信号明显；4小时图呈"阶梯式下跌"，反 弹遇10日均线压制，短期上行空间受限。后续需关注0.8100阻力与0.8000支撑的突破情况，以明确新方 向。 12月2日，美元兑瑞郎报0.8043，较前一交易日微跌0.0249%，日内波动于0.8037-0.8049区间，延续近期 整理格局。瑞士经济压力、美联储政策分歧及贸易环境变化，共同主导当前震荡走势，市场静待新指 引。 瑞士三季度GDP环比下降0.5%，为2023年中以来首次负增长，核心拖累来自美国对瑞士商品加征39%关 税导致的出口疲软。作为外向型经济体，净出口下滑对经济冲击显著，与一季度前置采购的拉动效应形 成反差。 瑞士经济增长高度依赖制药业，而美国推动本土产能扩张正促使罗氏、诺华等药企缩减本土布局，长期 或削弱瑞士经常账户盈余与瑞郎支撑。不过12月1日GDP数据公布后，美元兑瑞郎波动有限，瑞郎对欧 元微升，避险属性仍提供部分支撑。 美联储2025年已降息两次至3.75%-4.00%，但11月多位官员释放鹰派信号，洛根明确反对12月降息，博 斯蒂克强调数据指引。CME数据显示，12月降息概率已降至4 ...

Group 1 - Bitcoin price fell below $93,000, marking a decline of over 20% from the historical high in early October, officially entering a bear market [1] - On the same day, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF experienced a net outflow of $870 million, the second-largest single-day withdrawal since its launch [1] - The market turmoil is attributed to the most intense policy divergence from the Federal Reserve in six years and the impact of the U.S. government's strategic reserve of 198,000 Bitcoins [1] Group 2 - There has been a significant capital outflow from the Bitcoin market, with a total net outflow of $1.11 billion from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs from November 13 to 17, including $532 million from BlackRock's IBIT and $89 million from Fidelity's FBTC [3] - Over the past three weeks, these funds have lost a total of $2.64 billion, equivalent to the cost of two Nimitz-class aircraft carriers, representing 2.1% of their total assets [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's internal expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped from 91% to 72%, with hawkish members opposing further cuts and dovish members warning about employment market risks [6] - This divergence has led to significant volatility in the federal funds futures market, directly impacting the value of cryptocurrencies [6] Group 4 - The U.S. government holds 198,000 Bitcoins as a strategic reserve, primarily seized from law enforcement actions, with a minimum holding period of 20 years established by an executive order [7] - These Bitcoins are valued at approximately $18.5 billion at current prices, equivalent to 1.5 quarters of Apple's net profit, and represent 0.94% of the total circulating supply [7] Group 5 - The structure of the cryptocurrency market is undergoing fundamental changes, with Bitcoin market depth decreasing by 30% from this year's peak, leading to greater price volatility for large transactions [9] - On November 17, the total liquidation in the cryptocurrency market reached $1.04 billion, with over $4.5 billion liquidated in the past two weeks, equivalent to the sales of 2.25 million iPhone 15 units [9] Group 6 - The current market faces three overlapping risks: uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy, continued capital withdrawal by institutional investors, and the failure of technical support levels [11] - Analysts note a significant trading zone around $90,000 for Bitcoin, but further deterioration in macro sentiment could lead to a drop to $85,000 [11] - The U.S. government's holding cost is approximately $32,000, which may serve as a psychological support level for the market [11]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility on November 18, 2025, with spot gold prices dropping below $4000 per ounce before rebounding due to comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller supporting interest rate cuts [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Movements - Spot gold prices fell to $3998.2 per ounce, marking the first drop below $4000 since November 10 [3] - COMEX gold futures also declined, reaching a low of $3985.6 per ounce, while silver prices fell below $50 per ounce, with a daily drop exceeding 2% [3] - Following Waller's comments, spot gold rebounded nearly $40, closing at $4038.677 per ounce, while COMEX futures recovered above $4040 [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Impact - Recent hawkish statements from several Federal Reserve officials dampened market expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December cut dropping from 93.7% to 48.6% [3][4] - Waller's dovish remarks emphasized the need for rate cuts to mitigate risks in the labor market, which reignited bullish sentiment in the gold market [4][5] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact, supported by central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [4][6] - Central banks are expected to continue significant gold purchases, with 800 tons acquired in the first three quarters of 2024, a 34% year-on-year increase [4] - Analysts predict gold prices could rise to $4900 by the end of 2026, driven by ongoing demand from both central banks and private investors [4] Group 4: Upcoming Economic Data - The upcoming non-farm payroll report and unemployment rate will be critical for the gold market, as strong employment data could delay rate cuts, while weak data may boost gold prices [5][6] - Other significant events, such as the October CPI data and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, will also impact the gold market [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in the US dollar index, driven by Federal Reserve policy disagreements and economic data performance [1][2] - The US dollar index has shown a strong upward movement since hitting a low of 98.865 on November 3, forming a potential "W-bottom" pattern [2] - The market is currently focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech, which is expected to be a key catalyst for the dollar index's direction [1] Group 2 - As of November 18, the dollar index is trading within a narrow range of 99.20-99.60, with a recent high of 99.477 and a low of 99.245, indicating a buildup for a potential breakout [2] - The probability of maintaining interest rates in December has risen to 57.1%, while the likelihood of a rate cut has decreased to 42.9%, providing support for the dollar index [1] - Technical indicators show a bullish structure with the RSI reading at 52 and MACD showing signs of a bullish crossover, suggesting a moderate release of bullish momentum [2]

Core Viewpoint - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials have been inconsistent, leading to uncertainty in the market regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [1] Group 1: Economic Resilience and Caution - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari noted that the current economic performance is stronger than expected, with most businesses showing confidence despite some credit tightening for low-income groups [3] - San Francisco Fed President Daly expressed that it is too early to draw conclusions about the December meeting, indicating that current policy is in a "neutral" state and further data is needed [3] Group 2: Increasing Support for Maintaining Rates - Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that current interest rates have limited restrictive effects and should be maintained to continue cooling inflation, which may persist into early next year [4] - Boston Fed President Collins also advocated for keeping rates at current levels for some time, warning that strong economic growth could slow down inflation's decline [4] - Even traditionally dovish officials, such as Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, have shifted their stance recently [4] Group 3: Market Expectations Shift - Investor expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped to around 47%, a significant decrease from the near 100% expectation prior to the October meeting, indicating a reassessment of the Fed's policy direction [5] Group 4: Anticipated Divergence in December Meeting - Observers expect that regardless of the decision made in December, Fed Chair Powell may face more dissenting votes than usual, with two members already opposing the last meeting's decisions [6] - St. Louis Fed President Bullard emphasized the need for "reverse suppression" of inflation, while Fed Vice Chair Jefferson advocated for caution in the absence of sufficient data [6]