Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.56%, closing at 98.17, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts following comments from Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - Spot gold prices fell by 0.35%, ending at $3368.97 per ounce after reaching a near two-week high, marking the end of a four-day rally [1][2] - Spot silver remained relatively stable, closing up 0.05% at $37.809 per ounce [1][2] Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The geopolitical tension between the US and Russia is intensifying, with President Trump indicating a potential three-party summit next week, while Senator Rubio warned of possible secondary sanctions against Russia within 24-36 hours, creating a mixed risk environment that raises safe-haven premiums [3] - Discrepancies in Federal Reserve policy are increasing, with Kashkari advocating for two interest rate cuts this year, which reinforces easing expectations, while Trump's potential appointment of a temporary Fed board member poses risks to the credibility of monetary policy [3] Commodity Trading Insights - Precious metals are expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern in the short term, with gold's safe-haven premium strengthening [4] - A strong support level for gold is identified around $3400, while a resistance level is seen near $3450, which may present a breakthrough opportunity [4] - Silver, despite facing pressure from tariffs affecting industrial demand, could see a rebound if it holds above the critical support level of $37, with potential to challenge the $38 mark [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's policy divergence is increasing, with a 56.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, while 41.2% expect rates to remain unchanged [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller is a leading internal candidate to succeed Powell as chairman, especially given his support for rate cuts this year [3] - There are allegations from Republican congressmen that Powell committed perjury, leading to proposed criminal charges [3] Group 2 - Gold is currently fluctuating within the range of 3375 to 3310, experiencing volatile trading patterns, with a recent low of 3310 before rebounding [5] - Following the announcement of new U.S. tariffs on August 1, gold's safe-haven appeal has increased, leading to a breakout above the 3375 resistance level, reaching nearly 3400 [5] - The bullish sentiment for gold is strong, with daily gains opening up the upper Bollinger Band space, and short-term outlook remains bullish despite pressure at the 3400 level [5][6] Group 3 - Silver has been trading in a high range between 37.3 and 35, successfully breaking through the 37.3 resistance to reach a new high of 39 [9] - The bullish market structure for silver is reinforced by daily and weekly charts showing upward momentum, with MA5 and MA10 maintaining a bullish crossover [9] - The focus for silver trading is on the support level around 38, with expectations for continued bullish movement [9]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market are influenced by multiple factors, leading to rising long-term yields while short-term rate cut expectations diminish [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Trends - Long-term US Treasury yields have increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 9 basis points to 4.44% over two weeks [1] - The yield curve has steepened, with the 30-year yield increasing by 14 basis points [1] - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions have created uncertainty regarding future interest rate paths, impacting market expectations [1] Group 2: Treasury Issuance and Fiscal Position - In early July, there was a slight decrease in short-term Treasury issuance, while long-term issuance saw a minor increase [1] - The US recorded a fiscal surplus of $27.01 billion in June, with a 12-month cumulative deficit slightly decreasing to $1.90 trillion [1] Group 3: Market Positioning and Speculation - As of July 15, net short positions in Treasury futures have slightly decreased to 5.74 million contracts, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [1] - The Federal funds futures market transitioned from net short to net long positions, rising to 49,300 contracts, reflecting increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 4: Liquidity and Economic Indicators - The Treasury General Account (TGA) balance decreased by $60.15 billion over two weeks, while the Federal Reserve's reverse repo tool shrank by $56.45 billion, indicating a release of liquidity [1] - The Federal Reserve's weekly indicator showed a reading of 2.37, suggesting a stabilization in the short-term outlook [1]

6月以来，中东局势的阶段性缓和成为压制金价的首要变量。伊朗与以色列全面停火，削弱了市场的紧 急避险需求，国际金价从3450美元高位回落至3300-3200美元区间。中东的硝烟暂时散去，但金融市场 的硝烟正浓，美联储内部鹰鸽分歧的加剧，黄金再次陷入政策预期的迷雾中。随着议息预期的反复变 化，近期黄金交投机会显著增加，领峰贵金属特送$10000赠金大礼，助力投资者轻松布局夏日金市良 机！ 此外，被多数投资者忽视的关键变量——美国对华加征关税暂缓期将于7月9日正式到期，白宫已暗 示"暂无延期计划"。这一事件可能重构黄金逻辑，若关税升级，全球供应链成本骤增，通胀预期升温， 黄金作为对冲工具吸引力上升。若意外延期，风险偏好回暖，资金流出金市，则金价短期恐将承压。领 峰贵金属黄金平台认为，这可能是7月上旬投资市场面临的最大"黑天鹅"，机遇与风险并存，投资者需 要重点关注。 03 盛夏布局黄金好时节，领峰贵金属送您$10000！ 01 脆弱的平衡，黄金市场面临三重博弈！ 当前黄金市场进入高波动周期，7月至8月初将成为关键时间窗口，交易机会如夏日骤雨般频繁降临。为 助力投资者把握今夏黄金行情，领峰贵金属送上"10000美元" ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility due to Trump's tariff policies, entering a technical bear market in early April, but has since rebounded strongly, with all three major indices recovering losses and the Nasdaq approaching historical highs [1] - The S&P 500 recorded its best monthly performance of 2023, indicating a strong recovery despite ongoing trade tensions and tariff policy uncertainties [1] Group 2 - The U.S. CPI annual rate fell to 2.3%, the lowest in recent years, showing a continued decline in inflation, yet concerns about consumer confidence and policy uncertainty have led to warnings from several Federal Reserve officials about potential inflation and unemployment risks [3] - The U.S. GDP recorded negative growth in Q1, marking the worst performance since October 2022, raising concerns about stagflation, which poses greater risks than a simple recession [3] - The "Big and Beautiful Act" promoted by Trump is projected to reduce tax revenue by approximately $3.75 trillion over the next decade and increase the fiscal deficit by $2.4 trillion, leading to a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's [3] Group 3 - There is a significant divide within the Federal Reserve regarding policy direction, with dovish members viewing tariff impacts as temporary and advocating for a wait-and-see approach, while hawkish members emphasize the uncertainty of trade negotiations and advocate for maintaining stable interest rates [4] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts has been pushed back, with low probabilities for cuts in June, and potential cuts not expected until July or September, which may limit further gains in the stock market [4] - The stock market has shown signs of high-level consolidation, with the Dow Jones facing resistance around the 43,400 level [4]