Group 1 - The global asset performance in September shows that global stocks outperformed other asset classes, with a return of 3.31%, followed by global bonds at 0.65%, and commodities at 0.05% [2] - The international spot gold price has recently continued its strong upward momentum, breaking through $3,800 per ounce at the end of September, driven by multiple systemic factors and market sentiment [4][12] - Despite the U.S. government shutdown, the stock market showed resilience, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reaching historical highs, buoyed by optimistic market sentiment and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [4][17] Group 2 - The credit spread for U.S. high-yield corporate bonds narrowed to a historical low of 2.67% by the end of September 2025, indicating high investor confidence in corporate credit quality [5][20] - Global fund managers increased their allocations to stocks, pharmaceuticals, communications, consumer discretionary, and technology, while reducing exposure to the UK, utilities, energy, Eurozone, and emerging markets [6][23] - The Indian stock market has underperformed the MSCI Asia-Pacific index for five consecutive months, reflecting a divergence between foreign and domestic investor sentiment [6][28] Group 3 - Speculative net positions in Japanese yen have decreased to 79,500 contracts, indicating a waning bullish sentiment towards the yen [6][31] - The volatility ratio of emerging market currencies to G7 currencies has continued to decline, reaching a low of 0.76, improving the risk-return profile for carry trades [6][36] - The scale of reserves held by banks at the Federal Reserve has fallen below $3 trillion, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, due to large-scale Treasury issuance and ongoing quantitative tightening [6][39] Group 4 - The S&P 500 index and the MOVE index (a measure of U.S. Treasury market volatility) have shown a strong correlation, suggesting that the current stock market rally is supported by low interest rate volatility [6][42] - The overnight interbank offered rate in Hong Kong surged to 5.35%, the highest level in nearly a year, highlighting short-term funding market tensions [6][45] Group 5 - From a fundamental perspective, the weekly economic activity index has shown signs of recovery, indicating a potential divergence between asset prices and economic fundamentals [6][47] - From a sentiment perspective, the market sentiment index has rebounded, reflecting improved investor confidence [6][63]

Group 1: Market Performance - Global equities outperformed other asset classes with a return of 3.31% in September, followed by global bonds at 0.65% and commodities at 0.05%[1] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached historical highs despite the U.S. government shutdown, driven by optimistic market sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] - The Bloomberg U.S. high-yield corporate bond credit spread narrowed to 2.67%, indicating strong investor confidence in corporate credit quality[4] Group 2: Investment Trends - Global fund managers increased their allocations to equities, particularly in sectors like technology and healthcare, while reducing exposure to utilities and emerging markets[4] - The Indian stock market lagged behind the MSCI Asia-Pacific index for five consecutive months, reflecting a divergence in outlook between domestic and foreign investors[5] - Speculative net positions in the Japanese yen decreased to 79,500 contracts, signaling a shift in market sentiment towards a weaker yen[6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The ratio of exchange rate volatility between emerging markets and G7 countries fell to 0.76, the lowest level since 2013, improving the risk-return profile for carry trades[7] - The Federal Reserve's reserve balances dropped below $3 trillion, the lowest level since the beginning of the year, due to increased Treasury issuance and ongoing quantitative tightening[8] - The correlation between the S&P 500 and the MOVE index (a measure of U.S. Treasury market volatility) reached -0.88, indicating that stock market gains are supported by low interest rate volatility[9] Group 4: Regional Developments - Hong Kong's overnight interbank lending rate surged to 5.35%, the highest in nearly a year, due to liquidity tightening measures by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority[10] - Gold prices continued to rise, surpassing $3,800 per ounce, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties[2]