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长虹美菱(000521):Q3收入阶段承压,研发投入和汇兑影响短期盈利能力
Guotou Securities· 2025-11-03 15:36
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changhong Meiling is maintained at Buy-A, with a target price of 9.56 yuan for the next six months [4]. Core Views - Changhong Meiling reported a revenue of 25.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.2% year-on-year to 490 million yuan [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 7.32 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 70 million yuan, down 38.6% year-on-year. The decline in performance is attributed to national subsidy limits and price competition [1][2]. - The company is expected to improve its performance in the future as it continues to enhance domestic channels and expand overseas markets [2]. Revenue Analysis - Domestic sales of Changhong air conditioners fell by 36.8% year-on-year in Q3, while Meiling refrigerators saw a decline of 14.4%. The slowdown is linked to national subsidy limits and intense price competition in the air conditioning sector [2]. - Overseas, air conditioner exports dropped by 39.7% year-on-year, while Meiling refrigerators experienced a growth of 7.2%. The decline in air conditioner exports is likely influenced by U.S. tariff policies and increased competition in overseas markets [2]. Profitability Insights - The gross margin for Q3 was 9.4%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 1.0%. The decline in net profit margin is primarily due to increased R&D expenditures and foreign exchange losses [2][3]. - R&D expenses increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year in Q3, reflecting the company's commitment to innovation [2]. Cash Flow and Financial Projections - Operating cash flow for Q3 saw a slight decline of 30 million yuan year-on-year, attributed to increased production and inventory costs [3]. - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.64 yuan, 0.72 yuan, and 0.80 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3].