Market Performance Review - In early November 2025, concerns over the AI bubble led to volatility in the US stock market, with the Nasdaq 100 index experiencing a downward trend due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials [1] - By the end of November, the Nasdaq 100 index showed signs of recovery, supported by positive earnings reports from Google and Nvidia, alongside dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which increased expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2] - As of November 28, 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of 36.50, placing it in the 91.4th percentile historically since 2011, indicating a high dependency on interest rate environment and earnings realization [1] Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic landscape in November 2025 was characterized by mixed data, with manufacturing and services PMIs showing divergence, and strong non-farm employment figures coexisting with rising unemployment rates, complicating the Federal Reserve's assessment of economic health [2] - The absence of key CPI data due to government shutdown further amplified market uncertainty and volatility [2] Policy Impact - The Nasdaq 100 index's performance was significantly influenced by fluctuating expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy, with hawkish signals in mid-November leading to a decline in the index, followed by a rebound in late November after dovish comments from a key Federal Reserve official [2] Industry Dynamics - The Nasdaq 100 index experienced fluctuations driven by the AI sector, with bearish comments from prominent short-seller Michael Burry and concerns over AI bubble risks in early November, contrasted by positive developments from Google and Nvidia later in the month [2] - Google's release of a new generation AI model and Nvidia's strong earnings report contributed to a stabilization in market sentiment, supporting the index's recovery [2] Future Outlook - The market direction in December 2025 is expected to be influenced by both monetary policy and microeconomic factors, with an 86.4% probability of interest rate cuts, although uncertainties remain regarding the timing and conditions of these cuts [3] - The Nasdaq 100 index is anticipated to trend upwards in December, supported by the AI industry revolution, but caution is advised due to potential market corrections if key economic data or Federal Reserve meetings do not meet expectations [3] Related ETF Products - The GF Nasdaq 100 ETF (159941.SZ) closely tracks the index, with a circulating scale of 29.915 billion yuan and a trading volume of 786 million yuan as of November 28, 2025 [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates a rebound in the equity market, with the Wande All A index rising by 1.24% and a trading volume of 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 858 billion yuan compared to the previous week [1] - The U.S. stock market showed a significant rebound, with the Nasdaq index increasing by 2.69%, attributed to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [2] - The report highlights a strong performance in the technology sector, particularly with Google’s stock rising by 6.31% due to its AI strategy [2] - Southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks reached 112 billion HKD, indicating confidence in the recovery trend of the Hong Kong market [4] Equity Market Summary - The report notes that the ChiNext index experienced a brief rise before a sustained decline, suggesting ongoing market divergence regarding upward momentum [3] - The light module sector saw a significant increase of 8.21%, driven by released demand following a cautious investment attitude [2][3] - The report suggests that the market is still in a consensus-building phase, with investors cautious about the potential for further declines in the U.S. market and geopolitical tensions [3] Bond Market Summary - The bond market experienced volatility, with long-term interest rates showing limited upward movement initially, followed by a sell-off in long bonds later in the day [4][5] - The report indicates that the sentiment in the bond market is weak, with adjustments in long-duration bonds being influenced by market news [6] - The net redemption strength for bond funds was reported at -0.09, indicating manageable outflows compared to previous significant redemption points [5] Commodity Market Summary - The commodity market showed signs of recovery, particularly in precious metals, with gold and silver prices rising by 1.48% and 2.75% respectively [6] - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded by 4.47%, driven by strong demand and expectations of supply recovery [7] - The report notes a decline in coking coal prices due to increased supply and reduced demand from steel and coke enterprises [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's FY26Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with significant growth in the data center business, achieving revenue of $57.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.0% [4][26]. - The GB300 is accelerating its deployment, and the Rubin platform is expected to ramp up in H2 2026, indicating strong future growth potential [2][4]. - Google's Gemini 3 showcases robust multimodal capabilities, supporting native generative UI and fully integrating into search scenarios, which is anticipated to positively impact its advertising and cloud business [2][4]. Summary by Sections NVIDIA Performance - NVIDIA reported FY26Q3 revenue of $57.01 billion, with a GAAP net profit of $31.91 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 65.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.8% [4][26]. - The data center revenue reached $51.2 billion, up 66% year-on-year, driven by the deployment of GB300 and strong sales of NVLink, SpectrumX Ethernet, and Quantum X InfiniBand [4][19]. - The company anticipates FY26Q4 revenue of $65 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14%, with an expected gross margin of 74.8% [4][26]. Google Gemini 3 - Google Gemini 3 achieved a groundbreaking score of 1501 on the LMArena leaderboard, significantly outperforming previous models in multimodal understanding and mathematical reasoning [4][24]. - The model utilizes self-developed TPU for training, which is expected to enhance cost efficiency and model quality [2][4]. - As of Q3 2025, the Gemini App has over 650 million monthly active users, with a tripling of daily request volume compared to the previous quarter [4][28]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses continued optimism regarding the overseas AI computing supply chain, highlighting companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, Shijia Photon, Huamao Technology, Yingweike, and Wolong Nuclear Materials as key investment opportunities [2][4].