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欧派家居(603833):2024A、2025Q1点评:国补带动经营向好,盈利延续改善,坚定大家居战略
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-08 09:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 18.925 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.599 billion, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.316 billion in 2024, representing declines of 17%, 14%, and 16% year-on-year respectively. For Q4 2024, the figures were 5.046 billion, 568 million, and 553 million, showing year-on-year declines of 19%, 22%, and a slight increase of 1% respectively. The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 3.447 billion, net profit of 308 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 266 million, with year-on-year changes of -5%, +41%, and +86% respectively [2][6][11]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The overall revenue for 2024 decreased by 14% compared to the previous year, but the decline narrowed from -21% in Q3 2024. The company is expected to see continued improvement in Q2 2025, with contract liabilities increasing by 169% year-on-year by the end of Q1 2025 [7][11]. Channel and Product Performance - In Q4 2024, retail, bulk, and export sales saw year-on-year declines of 22%, 23%, and an increase of 49% respectively. The integrated home segment showed resilience, with annual growth rates of 26% and a decline of 19% for the retail segment. In Q1 2025, retail and bulk sales were down by 1% and 29%, while exports increased by 46% [7][11]. Margin Improvement - The gross margin has shown improvement for eight consecutive quarters, with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 gross margins increasing by 2.3 and 4.3 percentage points year-on-year respectively. This improvement is attributed to internal efficiency measures and a shift towards higher-margin direct sales [11][13]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is optimizing its channel structure and advancing its integrated home strategy, which has strengthened its operational resilience and competitiveness. In 2024, the number of distribution stores decreased by 966, while the number of effective retail integrated home stores increased by over 450, reaching more than 1,100 [11][13]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance profit quality as a core goal for 2025, focusing on internal transformation and cost reduction. This includes a granular approach to profit centers and optimizing product development and delivery processes [11][13]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to distribute 1.5 billion in dividends in 2024, with a payout ratio of 58% and a dividend yield of 3.7%. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 2.89 billion, 3.17 billion, and 3.57 billion respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14, 13, and 11 times [11][12].
欧派家居(603833):盈利能力稳中有升 大家居战略稳步推进
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-08 04:34
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with a significant increase in net profit compared to the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 18.92 billion, down 17% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.6 billion, down 14% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 2.32 billion, down 16% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.05 billion, down 19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 570 million, down 22% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit was 550 million, up 1% year-on-year [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.45 billion, down 5% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 41% to 310 million, with adjusted net profit rising by 86% to 270 million [1]. Product and Channel Performance - In 2024, revenue from various product lines included: cabinets (5.45 billion, -22%), wardrobes (9.79 billion, -18%), sanitary ware (1.09 billion, -4%), wooden doors (1.13 billion, -18%), and other products (890 million, +8%) [1]. - Revenue by channel in 2024 was: distribution (14.04 billion, -20%), direct sales (830 million, +0.6%), and bulk sales (3.05 billion, -15%) [1]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to its home furnishing development strategy, with over half of its distributors operating or piloting retail home furnishing businesses by the end of 2024, increasing effective retail home furnishing stores to over 1,100 [2]. - The company aims to deepen its risk control in bulk business while exploring new business models, achieving nearly 50% growth in non-real estate development project business volume in 2024 [2]. - The company is transitioning from single customization to integrated solutions and is moving towards a large-scale building materials integration platform, with multi-category bulk projects accounting for over 50% in 2024 [2]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company effectively controlled costs, achieving an overall gross margin of 35.9% in 2024, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were 10.0%, 6.9%, 5.4%, and -1.3% respectively, with absolute amounts for sales, management, and R&D expenses decreasing [2]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 13.7%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Profit Forecast - The company maintains a strong industry leadership position, with expectations for net profits of 2.82 billion, 3.04 billion, and 3.22 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, and maintains a "recommended" rating [3].
欧派家居(603833):25Q1业绩超预期,国补订单逐步转化
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-05-06 12:53
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained outlook, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [9]. Core Views - The company's revenue is under pressure, but significant improvements in profitability have been observed. The gross profit margin has increased, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency [3][7]. - The company is expected to gradually improve its revenue due to government subsidies and a deepening strategy in the home furnishing sector, with a projected net profit for 2025-2027 of 2.74 billion, 2.91 billion, and 3.15 billion respectively [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 22,782 million, with a projected decline to 18,925 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 20,098 million in 2025 [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to decrease from 3,036 million in 2023 to 2,599 million in 2024, with a slight recovery to 2,740 million in 2025 [3]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 is expected to be 35.91%, improving to 36.29% in 2025, reflecting better cost control [7]. Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue from the cabinet segment in 2024 is projected at 54.50 billion, down 22.48% year-on-year, with a gross margin increase of 1.29 percentage points [5]. - The bathroom segment is expected to show resilience, with a revenue of 10.87 billion in 2024, down only 3.60% year-on-year, and a gross margin improvement [6]. - The retail channel is showing signs of recovery, with a revenue of 25.86 billion in Q1 2025, down just 1.28% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend [7]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s net profit margin for 2024 is projected at 13.76%, with an increase to 14.0% by 2027, indicating a steady improvement in profitability [7][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline slightly from 17% in 2023 to 12% by 2027, reflecting the impact of lower net profits [3][8]. Cash Flow and Valuation - The operating cash flow for 2024 is projected at 5,499 million, with a significant drop to 2,055 million in 2025, indicating potential cash flow challenges [8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 15 for 2025, decreasing to 13 by 2027, suggesting a more attractive valuation as earnings recover [8].