2025年，对中国家居行业而言，是在"内热外冷"的复杂环境中深度变革与价值重塑的关键一年。一边是国内"以旧换新"、城市更新等政策红利持续释放， 激活万亿级存量市场；另一边则是国际贸易壁垒高筑、成本压力骤增，倒逼行业向内求索、向外突破。资本进退、模式创新、标准引领、渠道激变，共同 构成了这一年的发展主旋律。以下是搜狐焦点家居根据官方政策文件、行业协会动态及权威企业公开信息整理的十大新闻事件，它们不仅勾勒出行业发展 的清晰脉络，也预示着未来竞争的核心方向。 一、政策双轮驱动，存量家居市场迎来爆发期 全年最亮眼的行业动向，莫过于政策对内需的强力拉动。全国性家居"以旧换新"政策交出超预期成绩单，直接带动家装厨卫焕新订单突破5000万单；与此 同时，住建部明确将2000年前建成的小区全部纳入城市更新范围，老旧小区改造全面提速。 这两项政策形成"内外联动"：一个聚焦室内家居焕新，一个发力建筑本体改造，共同点燃了存量房市场的需求。橱柜、卫浴、门窗等品类直接受益，更重 要的是，这标志着行业增长的"主引擎"，正式从新房增量市场切换到存量焕新市场——服务好不好、交付快不快、供应链稳不稳，成了企业竞争的新关 键。 二、130亿资本 ...

12月18日，2025泉州跨境电商供应链焕新大会正式启动。泉州发展集团供图 当天，政企学界代表携手发布《跨境电商出海倡议书》，倡议各方秉持共生共荣理念，加强产业链上下 游协同联动，构建安全韧性、高效协同的现代化产业生态，打造开放包容的跨境电商产业共同体。 来源：中国新闻网 12月18日，海外客商在2025泉州跨境电商供应链焕新大会上洽谈对接。泉州发展集团供图 中新网泉州12月18日电 (记者 孙虹)2025泉州跨境电商供应链焕新大会18日启动，来自中国、美国、巴 西、西班牙等多个国家和地区的海内外采购商、平台代表、行业专家在此共商供应链升级之道，共话跨 境出海新机遇。 在跨境电商领域，"七分靠选品，三分靠运营"是广为流传的成功法则。为切实破解选品难题，本次大会 深度整合泉州九大千亿产业集群与全市的优势资源，汇聚了鞋服、箱包、建材、卫浴、陶瓷、家居、电 子、户外、纺织、个护、母婴等全品类的"泉州优品"制造商。大会不仅集中展现了"泉州制造"的硬核实 力与创新成果，更通过联动晋江、石狮、丰泽等地打造的"泉州跨境产业会客厅"，为全球采购商提供了 高效、便捷的一站式选品平台。 作为侨乡泉州首个聚焦跨境电商供应链的专题大 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Quanzhou Cross-Border E-Commerce Supply Chain Renewal Conference has commenced, gathering international buyers, platform representatives, and industry experts to discuss supply chain upgrades and new opportunities for cross-border expansion [1][3] Group 1: Event Overview - The conference features a diverse range of products including footwear, bags, building materials, sanitary ware, ceramics, home goods, electronics, outdoor gear, textiles, personal care, and maternal and infant products, showcasing "Quanzhou Quality" manufacturers [3] - The event aims to create a one-stop selection platform for global buyers, enhancing efficiency and convenience in sourcing [3] Group 2: Industry Significance - Quanzhou has established itself as a global supply chain center for footwear, textiles, and food industries, with products like men's and sportswear being particularly favored in the cross-border market [3] - The local government expresses intentions to leverage the conference to expand sales channels for "Quanzhou Quality" products and facilitate global market access for local manufacturers [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to pressure on terminal demand and a decrease in real estate demand, compounded by the withdrawal of national subsidies [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 132.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.79%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 18.32 billion yuan, down 9.77% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 49.73 billion yuan, a decline of 6.10%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.14 billion yuan, down 21.79% [1]. Product Category Performance - In Q3 2025, revenue by product category showed mixed results: cabinets down 2.94% to 14.28 billion yuan, wardrobes and supporting furniture down 7.99% to 25.48 billion yuan, sanitary ware down 3.21% to 2.87 billion yuan, while wooden doors increased by 1.05% to 3.31 billion yuan [2]. Channel Performance - Revenue by channel in Q3 2025: direct stores up 1.54% to 1.96 billion yuan, dealer stores down 4.88% to 38.03 billion yuan, bulk business down 13.29% to 7.36 billion yuan, and other channels up 6.65% to 1.28 billion yuan [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is committed to advancing its whole-home strategy and deepening channel transformation, with nearly 1,300 retail whole-home stores by the end of Q3 [2]. Profitability Improvement - The company achieved a gross margin of 37.2% for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for the same period was 13.9%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points [3]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 38.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 16.4%, down 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Cost Management - The company implemented a "land distribution" mechanism reform, resulting in a decrease in sales and management expense ratios, while the financial expense ratio saw a slight increase [3]. Investment Outlook - The company is a leader in the custom home furnishing industry, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 24.30 billion, 26.34 billion, and 29.23 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 13, and 11 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 64.86 CNY per share [2][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 132.14 billion CNY and a net profit of 18.32 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.79% and 9.77% respectively. In Q3 alone, revenue was 49.73 billion CNY, with a net profit of 8.14 billion CNY, showing a decline of 6.10% and 21.79% year-on-year [2][9]. - The company is facing short-term pressure on performance due to a challenging real estate market and the tapering of national subsidy policies. However, it continues to deepen its "whole home" strategy and channel transformation, with nearly 1,300 retail stores by the end of Q3 [2][9]. - The company's gross margin improved to 37.2% for the first three quarters, up by 1.7 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin for Q3 was 16.4%, down by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][9]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, the total revenue is projected at 18,925 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of -16.9%. The net profit is expected to be 2,599 million CNY, reflecting a decline of 14.4% year-on-year [5][10]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2,430 million CNY in 2025E and 2,634 million CNY in 2026E, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14 and 13 respectively [5][10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 35,225 million CNY in 2024A to 38,469 million CNY in 2027E, while the debt-to-equity ratio is expected to decrease from 49.6% in 2024A to 39.1% in 2027E [10].

Core Insights - Dongpeng Holdings has achieved significant success in the e-commerce sector, ranking first in the Tmall home decoration "tile brand sales list" and the JD home decoration "wall and floor material brand list," marking five consecutive years of leading the tile industry in new retail [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, Dongpeng Holdings reported a revenue of 4.501 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.03% in the tile retail channel [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 349 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.09%, with a notable 32.91% growth in the third quarter [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 651 million yuan, up 33.19% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The architectural ceramics industry is currently in a phase of demand contraction and price wars, yet Dongpeng Holdings has managed to grow its market share rapidly [1][2] - The company has opened 196 new stores and upgraded 224 existing ones in the first three quarters, enhancing its brand display and service capabilities [2] - Dongpeng Holdings has focused on "experiential scene-based" transformations and a "online-to-offline" operational model to stimulate consumer demand [2] Group 3: Product Innovation - Dongpeng Holdings has launched several innovative products, including the "Feather Anti-Slip Shield" technology for anti-slip tiles and a smart toilet that meets the highest 5A grade in sanitary ware [5] - The company has established 38 innovation platforms and holds 2,505 patents, making it the ceramic tile enterprise with the most patents in the industry [4] - The introduction of new product lines, such as the premium stone series and eco-friendly products, has contributed to the company's competitive edge [2] Group 4: Industry Standards and Future Outlook - Dongpeng Holdings is a key player in the formulation of the new national standard for ceramic tiles, which will be implemented on December 1, aiming to enhance product quality across the industry [6][7] - The new standard is expected to drive technological advancements and quality upgrades, benefiting companies like Dongpeng that can meet these stringent requirements [6][7] - The architectural ceramics market is projected to stabilize at around 250 billion yuan over the next five years, with a potential increase in market concentration favoring leading companies [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing a slight decline in performance due to weak end-demand, with a revenue drop of 4.79% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [6] - The company is focusing on transforming its marketing system to support a comprehensive home furnishing strategy, aiming to enhance its competitive edge in the long term [6] - The company is committed to a home furnishing development strategy, implementing various reforms to support this core strategy [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 181.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is estimated at 25.27 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [5] - The company's gross margin for Q3 2025 was 38.77%, down 1.59 percentage points year-on-year [9] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from wardrobes and related products was 67.86 billion yuan, down 5.58% year-on-year [6] - Revenue from cabinets was 38.35 billion yuan, down 4.80% year-on-year [6] - Revenue from bathroom products was 7.87 billion yuan, down 1.57% year-on-year [6] Market Position and Strategy - The company has over 1,200 effective retail home furnishing stores, with more than 60% of distributors engaged in the home furnishing business [9] - The company is enhancing its supply chain management and focusing on smart manufacturing to build a competitive advantage [6] - The company aims to redefine consumer needs in the home furnishing market, transitioning from merely meeting demands to defining them [6]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.214 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.79%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.832 billion yuan, down 9.77% [1] - In Q3 2025, the company experienced a single-quarter revenue of 4.973 billion yuan, a decline of 6.10%, and a net profit of 814 million yuan, down 21.79% [1] Retail Channel Performance - The retail channel showed resilience, with direct sales channel revenue in Q3 2025 reaching 196 million yuan, an increase of 1.54%, while the distribution channel revenue was 3.803 billion yuan, down 4.88% [1] - The total number of stores as of Q3 2025 was 7,480, a reduction of 333 stores since the beginning of the year, indicating a strategy to close underperforming stores [1] Product Segment Performance - In Q3 2025, the revenue for kitchen cabinets was 1.428 billion yuan, down 2.94%, while wardrobe and related products generated 2.548 billion yuan, down 7.99% [2] - The revenue for wooden doors increased by 1.05% to 331 million yuan, contrasting with declines in other segments [2] Operational Strategy - The company is focused on enhancing centralized e-commerce operational efficiency and optimizing localized e-commerce strategies, including the launch of cloud stores on platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou [3] - The home furnishing e-commerce business is entering a phase of high-quality development, with a 38% year-on-year increase in customer traffic in H1 2025 [3] Financial Metrics - In Q3 2025, the gross profit margin decreased by 1.59 percentage points, while the expense ratio increased by 2.82 percentage points, with notable increases in sales, management, and financial expense ratios [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is committed to advancing its retail home furnishing transformation, with expected revenues of 18.030 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.73%, and a net profit of 2.434 billion yuan, down 6.35% [5] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025-2027 are 12.94X, 12.54X, and 11.74X, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" with a target price of 63.61 CNY [4][6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025. However, the overall profitability remains stable [1][3]. - The company is actively optimizing its existing store resources and has seen growth in its direct sales channels, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing operational efficiency [2][3]. - The company's gross margin has shown resilience, and effective cost control measures have been implemented, contributing to stable profitability despite revenue declines [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.214 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.79%, and a net profit of 1.832 billion CNY, down 9.77% [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 4.973 billion CNY, a decline of 6.10% year-on-year, with net profit at 814 million CNY, down 21.79% [1]. Product and Channel Analysis - Revenue from various product categories for the first three quarters of 2025 includes: wardrobes and matching furniture (6.786 billion CNY, -5.58%), cabinets (3.835 billion CNY, -4.80%), and others [2]. - Direct sales channels have shown growth, with revenue from direct stores increasing by 4.11%, while other channels experienced declines [2]. Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 37.19%, an increase of 1.65 percentage points year-on-year, while Q3 gross margin was 38.77%, a decrease of 1.59 percentage points [3]. - The company has effectively managed its expenses, with a period expense ratio of 19.14% for the first three quarters, down 0.57 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 18.077 billion CNY, 19.239 billion CNY, and 20.290 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with projected growth rates of -4.48%, 6.43%, and 5.46% [4]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 2.422 billion CNY, 2.633 billion CNY, and 2.816 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of -6.82%, 8.71%, and 6.95% [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue, net profit attributable to the parent, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 13.214 billion, 1.832 billion, and 1.712 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year changes of -5%, -10%, and -3%. In Q3 2025, the figures were 4.973 billion, 814 million, and 769 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -6%, -22%, and -22% [2][6] - The slight decline in Q3 revenue and the decrease in profit margins are attributed to weak demand and a high base from the previous year. The net profit margin for Q3 remained at 16.4% and 15.5% for net profit excluding non-recurring items [12] - The company is actively optimizing its channel structure and transitioning to a home furnishing model to enhance operational resilience and competitiveness. In the first three quarters of 2025, the number of stores decreased by 333, with a significant focus on empowering distributors to transition to the home furnishing model [12] - The company aims to reduce costs and improve efficiency to empower its channels, with a focus on enhancing the quality of net profit. The strategy includes a "land distribution" mechanism and deepening operational capabilities in home furnishing [12] - The industry demand is still under pressure, but the company possesses medium to long-term competitiveness, with strong cash flow and a commitment to dividends. The projected net profit attributable to the parent for 2025-2027 is 2.41 billion, 2.57 billion, and 2.84 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14, 13, and 11 times [12] Financial Summary - For Q3 2025, the revenue by product categories showed a decline: cabinets and wardrobes down by 3%, sanitary ware down by 8%, wooden doors down by 3%, while other categories increased by 1% and overall revenue decreased by 6% year-on-year [12] - The gross profit margin for Q3 decreased by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year but increased by 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The sales, management, and R&D expense ratios collectively increased by 0.9 percentage points due to a decline in revenue [12] - The company has announced a minimum annual dividend of 1.5 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with a current dividend yield of approximately 4.6% [12]