Core Insights - The public fund industry in China has shown significant performance in the first half of 2025, with a total of 3,533 dividend distributions amounting to 127.51 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 37.53% [2][3] - Bond funds accounted for over 85% of the total dividend amount, while QDII funds saw a staggering year-on-year increase of 1,163.94% in dividend payouts [2][3] - Despite the impressive dividend growth, the industry has experienced a high turnover of fund managers, with 662 departures in the first half of the year, the highest in nearly a decade [6][7] Dividend Distribution Summary - Bond funds: 2,856 distributions, 94.98 billion yuan, up 19.79% year-on-year [3] - Equity funds: 362 distributions, 22.53 billion yuan, up 229.62% year-on-year [3] - REITs: 69 distributions, 4.55 billion yuan, up 19.17% year-on-year [3] - Mixed funds: 208 distributions, 4.60 billion yuan, up 76.94% year-on-year [3] - QDII funds: 27 distributions, 0.79 billion yuan, up 1,163.94% year-on-year [3] Market Trends - The increase in dividends is believed to enhance market confidence and meet investors' demand for stable cash flow, leading to optimistic expectations for the second half of the year [5] - The high turnover of fund managers raises questions about the underlying changes in the public fund market, particularly as many well-known managers have left their positions [6][8] - The shift from a "star manager" driven market to a more team-oriented approach reflects a broader change in the industry, emphasizing the importance of collective research capabilities over individual performance [17][18] Fund Performance - Approximately 87% of public funds achieved positive returns in the first half of 2025, with the best-performing fund, Huatai-PB Hong Kong Advantage Selection A, seeing a net value increase of 86.48% [20] - The top 50 funds by growth were predominantly focused on innovative pharmaceuticals and themes related to the Beijing Stock Exchange [20][22] Fund Issuance Trends - A total of 680 new funds were launched in the first half of 2025, marking a 7.94% increase year-on-year and a 32.55% increase from the previous half [23] - Equity funds led the issuance with 390 new products, accounting for 57.35% of the total, with passive index funds dominating this category [23][24] - FOF funds also saw significant growth, with an 82.35% year-on-year increase in issuance, highlighting a growing interest in diversified investment strategies [24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of predicting the adjustment lists of A-share indices in advance, which can provide substantial benefits for various investors, including arbitrage and cross-border investors [1][2]. Group 1: Index Adjustment Predictions - A-share indices undergo regular adjustments in June and December each year, allowing for predictions based on trading and financial data from the previous year [1][5]. - The report predicts the adjustment lists for several indices, including CSI 300, CSI 500, and others, for June 2025 based on component stock selection rules [1][5]. Group 2: Impact of Passive Fund Growth - The rapid increase in passive fund sizes since 2023 has enhanced the significance of index adjustment effects, particularly for indices like CSI 300 and STAR 50 [2][8]. - The average excess returns for newly included stocks in various indices have improved post-announcement, with CSI 300 and SSE 50 showing increases to 4.64% and 6.77% respectively in the 10 days following the announcement [2][12]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Adjustment Effects - The decline in the significance of index adjustment effects in overseas indices post-2010 is attributed to factors such as sample size, index migration, and liquidity [3][51]. - In A-shares, index migration and pre-announcement trading behaviors negatively impact the inclusion effects, while high impact coefficients positively influence them [3][51]. Group 4: Future Excess Return Potential - The current trends indicate that the future A-share market may still have excess return potential from index adjustment events, as key indicators like circulation market value and impact coefficients show no downward trend [4][51]. - High impact coefficient strategies have demonstrated strong performance, achieving annualized returns of around 10% from 2019 to 2024 [4][56]. Group 5: Strategy Development - The strategy of predicting index inclusion samples in advance has shown significant enhancement in returns, with annualized returns increasing from 2.5% to 5.7% when holding positions before announcements [52][56]. - A strategy focusing on high impact coefficient stocks has yielded an annualized return of 8.1% since 2010, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.2% during the same period [56].