证券研究报告 多元资产配置系列之二： 低利率时代的FOF多元配置趋势与应用实践 证券分析师 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 研究助理 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 2026年2月26日 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 投资要点 风险提示：历史业绩不代表未来表现；策略复杂性与成本风险；海外市场汇率风险；流动性风险。 1 发展背景与配置格局：（1）宏观背景：利率持续下行推动资产配置型产品需求抬升。存量产品来看，偏债型FOF通过债券打底、多资产增厚的策略，精准契合了当前市 场资金对于低波动、稳健收益的风险偏好，2025年偏债混合型FOF规模增长176%；增量产品来看，新发产品通过显性化的"多元"标签强化多元资产配置属性。（2）多 元配置格局：越来越多的FOF开始将黄金、商品、港股指数、全球股指纳入基准，香港市场为主的主动及被动基金、QDII权益/混合/债券基金、商品型基金、互认基金、 REITs、中性策略等 ...

业内人士表示，这与去年以来A股市场的强劲表现和各方对市场的信心愈发充足有着密切关系。 值得注意的是，今年以来，行业头部效应显著。在发行产品的基金管理人中，中欧基金以5只产 品、76.70亿元规模居首，万家基金、中银基金则以48.93亿元、35.49亿元的成绩紧随其后。头部公司凭 借品牌与投研优势，单只产品平均规模达15.34亿元，显著高于行业均值的8.57亿元。中小机构则聚焦细 分领域，如东财基金（5.57亿元）、中航基金（2.40亿元）通过主题基金实现差异化突围。 展望节后市场，博时基金认为，春节期间海外股市表现稳中有进，春节前市场担忧的风险因素在假 期期间基本没有发生。同时，春节期间出行、餐饮消费表现旺盛。 宏利基金权益投资部执行总经理李坤元认为，海外方面，今年美联储降息预期较强，全球将进 入"降息+流动性宽松"局面，整体对权益类资产有利；同时，国内各项经济指标好转，企业盈利明显改 善，将对A股市场形成有利支撑。在她看来，随着2026年企业盈利企稳、PPI改善、外资回流，高质量 风格（高ROE标的、行业龙头）风格有望回归。李坤元表示，宏利基金新发产品将聚焦于"科技成 长"与"中国优势"两大核心主线。一是A ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views The report reviews the fund market in 2025, including the overall situation of the public - offering fund industry, the development of various sub - categories of public - offering funds, and the situation of private - offering securities investment funds. It also provides a market outlook for 2026 and selects several types of funds for attention. In 2025, the public - offering fund market achieved significant positive returns, and the private - offering securities investment fund market expanded in scale. In 2026, with the resonance of China's and the US policies, the A - share market is expected to shift from liquidity - driven to profit - driven, and attention should be paid to specific investment directions and the rhythm of the fixed - income market [2][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Public Fund Overall Overview - **Asset Management Market Overview**: By the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of China's asset management business reached 80.03 trillion yuan. Public - offering funds and private - offering funds drove the growth of the asset management scale, with public - offering funds contributing 3.92 trillion yuan to the scale growth. The public - offering fund market maintained strong vitality, with a total scale of 36.67 trillion yuan and a total share of 31.30 trillion shares by the end of 2025, showing year - on - year growth [16][20]. - **Public Fund New - issuance Market**: In 2025, stock - type and bond - type funds were the main new - issuance products. The new - issuance volume of stock - type funds was large, and the new - issuance scale was comparable to that of bond - type funds, mainly relying on passive products [40]. - **Non - monetary Head Managers of Public Funds**: Since 2021, the top - three managers in terms of non - monetary fund scale have been relatively stable. In 2025, E Fund, China Asset Management, and GF Fund had different product line focuses in terms of stock and incremental scale. Huatai - Peregrine Fund and Invesco Great Wall Fund showed good performance [47][48]. - **Performance of Public Fund Products**: In 2025, the public - offering fund market achieved significant positive returns. Commodity - type funds represented by gold performed excellently, and stock - type funds also received good returns with reduced volatility and drawdown [3][56]. 3.2 Hot Topics in the Fund Industry - **Reform of Public - offering Fund Policies**: In 2025, a series of reform measures were introduced to promote the transformation of the public - offering fund industry from "scale - oriented" to "return - oriented" [59]. - **New - style Floating - rate Funds**: In 2025, new - style floating - rate funds were successively launched, which had important impacts on the public - offering fund market, such as guiding long - term holding and strengthening the binding mechanism between fund companies and investors [67][69]. - **Commercial Real Estate REITs**: In 2025, the pilot of commercial real estate REITs was officially launched, and 12 products had been officially declared by February 13, 2026 [73][75]. - **Development of the Fund Investment Advisory Industry**: Policy support, product expansion, and institutional empowerment promoted the development of the fund investment advisory industry. The investment scope of fund investment advisors was gradually broadened, and leading public - offering funds entered the market [77][79]. 3.3 Overview of Sub - categories of Public Funds - **Active Equity Funds**: In 2025, the scale of active equity funds rebounded, with an average return of 33.29%. Funds focusing on the AI industry chain led the gains [101]. - **Industry Theme Funds**: By the end of 2025, there were 2,009 industry theme funds, with a significant increase in scale. Funds in technology communication, large - scale technology, and large - scale manufacturing sectors led the gains [4][150]. - **Active Fixed - income Funds**: In the low - interest - rate environment and the rising equity market in 2025, the management pressure of pure - bond portfolios increased, while the scale of bond - containing funds increased significantly [170][174]. - **Passive Funds**: By the end of 2025, the total scale of passive funds exceeded 7.5 trillion yuan. ETFs continued to expand, and industry themes and bonds frequently created hot topics [205]. - **FOF Funds**: By the end of 2025, the total scale of FOF funds increased significantly, with performance showing significant differentiation. The new - issuance market recovered [296][309]. - **Quantitative Funds**: The scale of quantitative funds expanded rapidly, with index - enhanced funds dominating the scale. The new - issuance market of A500 and ChiNext/Science and Technology Innovation Board index - enhanced funds was hot, and small - cap products had outstanding returns [334][346]. 3.4 Overall Situation of Private - offering Securities Investment Funds - **Existing Situation**: By the end of December 2025, the existing scale of private - offering securities investment funds reached a record high of 7.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35.82%. The number of funds decreased, and fund managers continued to be cleared out [377]. - **New - issuance Market**: In 2025, the number and scale of newly - registered private - offering securities investment funds both increased. The access for new fund managers remained strict [382]. - **Industry Pattern**: The number of private - offering funds with a scale of over 10 billion yuan increased, while the number of those with a scale of less than 500 million yuan decreased significantly [391]. - **Market Trends**: In 2025, the scale of quantitative private - offering funds expanded again, and 14 new quantitative private - offering funds exceeded 10 billion yuan in scale. The regulatory rules for program trading were implemented [394][399]. - **Market Trends**: The number of insurance - funded private - offering securities investment funds increased to 7, and insurance funds increased their layout in the equity market through private - offering funds [400]. 3.5 Market Outlook in 2026 - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: In 2026, China's fiscal policy aims to balance "stable growth" and "structural transformation." If the fiscal space is fully released, a series of positive macroeconomic changes are expected. The total demand growth rate is expected to return to expansion [402][404]. - **Investment Direction**: In the equity market, attention should be paid to computing power, AI applications, AI power, cutting - edge technologies proposed in the 14th Five - Year Plan, pro - cyclical sectors, and domestic demand expansion and consumption recovery. In the fixed - income market, the interest rate center may rise, and the trading rhythm should be grasped [9]. - **Fund Selection**: The report selects several types of funds, including all - market investment equity funds, equity funds under different investment themes, fixed - income funds, and index - enhanced funds [10][11][12].

Core Insights - Huaxia Fund achieved a total revenue of 9.626 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.86%, and a net profit of 2.396 billion yuan, up 11.03% year-on-year [3][24] - The company demonstrated accelerated growth in the second half of 2025, with revenue reaching 5.368 billion yuan and net profit at 1.273 billion yuan, indicating enhanced profitability compared to the first half [3][24] - By the end of 2025, total assets amounted to 22.246 billion yuan, a 9.94% increase from the end of 2024, while shareholders' equity grew by 8.35% to 15.095 billion yuan [3][24] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, revenue was 4.258 billion yuan and net profit was 1.123 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.05% and 5.74% respectively [3][24] - The quarterly asset scale showed a consistent expansion, starting from 19.2 trillion yuan in Q1, surpassing 20 trillion yuan in Q2, reaching 22.5 trillion yuan in Q3, and ending at 22.8 trillion yuan in Q4 [3][24] Product Issuance - New asset net value for 2024 reached 23.661 billion yuan with 55 new products, while in 2025, it increased to 43.64 billion yuan with 60 new products [5][26] - As of early 2025, three new funds were issued with a net asset value of 3.032 billion yuan [5][26] Product Structure - ETFs became the core driver of scale growth, with the ETF size reaching 957 billion yuan by the end of 2025, an increase of nearly 300 billion yuan within a year, and 25 new products launched [7][28] - However, there was a net outflow of funds from broad-based ETFs at the beginning of 2026, with the ETF size dropping to approximately 748.894 billion yuan by February 11, 2026 [7][28] Fund Manager Changes - The number of fund managers increased from 131 in the first half of 2025 to 138 by year-end, with 23 new hires and 11 departures, including several long-serving senior managers [14][37] - Notably, the average tenure of fund managers at Huaxia Fund is 4.93 years, with the longest-serving manager having 19.52 years of experience [37][38] Management and Ownership Changes - 2025 marked the 27th anniversary of Huaxia Fund and a significant year for ownership and management changes, including a transfer of 10% equity to Qatar Holding [12][33] - Following the ownership change, there was a management reshuffle, with a new chairman and vice-chairman appointed in September 2025 [13][34]

Core Insights - The trend of "deposit migration" is becoming a core focus in the wealth management market as deposit rates decline and residents restructure their asset allocation [1] - By 2026, over 50 trillion yuan of residents' fixed-term deposits will mature, leading to a significant shift of funds from traditional savings to standardized asset management products with better yield flexibility [1] - Publicly offered Funds of Funds (FOF) are emerging as a key vehicle for accommodating this migration, with total FOF scale expected to exceed 240 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [1][5] Market Dynamics - In early 2026, 20 new FOF products were launched, raising over 38.1 billion yuan and attracting more than 140,000 investors [3] - Major fund companies like Bosera, ICBC, and Fortune have seen individual product fundraising exceed 4 billion yuan, indicating a "blockbuster" trend in the market [3] - The issuance of FOF products is on the rise, with 2025 expected to see a record number of new products and a total issuance scale of 84.4 billion yuan [1][3] FOF Performance - The FOF market is entering a "2.0 phase," characterized by a shift from traditional "fixed income plus" strategies to a broader investment scope that includes diverse asset classes such as Hong Kong stocks and gold [5] - The top FOF products by fundraising in early 2026 include Bosera's FOF with 5.844 billion yuan, ICBC's FOF with 4.581 billion yuan, and Fortune's FOF with 4.190 billion yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The wealth management industry is transitioning from "product-centric" to "client-profit-centric," focusing on personalized and customized asset management services, as evidenced by the continuous growth of public fund scales, which reached 37.71 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking nine consecutive months of growth [4][5]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The public fund industry is facing challenges such as declining management fees and intensified competition, necessitating a return to client-centric approaches and demand insights [2][5]. - The shift towards client profitability is supported by regulatory changes, including the approval of fund advisory services, which enhance investor experience and promote a buyer's advisory model [6][7]. - The public fund sector is undergoing a "three-step" reform that impacts revenue and profit, requiring a focus on long-term investor profitability as a core metric [7]. Group 2: Company Strategy - The company aims to achieve high-quality development by focusing on four key positions: creating client value, discovering investment value, leading high-quality development, and contributing to the construction of a financial power [8][9]. - The company plans to enhance its integrated investment and research capabilities, leverage technology, and deepen its service to the real economy, transitioning from asset management to comprehensive wealth management [9][10]. - The product strategy includes optimizing the product structure to create a diversified ETF and index product system, transitioning from "fixed income" to "fixed income plus" strategies, and exploring new sources of returns [11]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The company anticipates structural opportunities in the stock market, particularly in sectors like technology, energy transition, and consumer recovery, with a focus on companies with genuine competitiveness [12]. - The bond market is expected to maintain strong allocation value, with investment opportunities arising from detailed exploration of yield spreads and the flexible application of "fixed income plus" strategies [12]. - Asset allocation strategies will emphasize balance and flexibility, moving from "single Beta" to "multiple Alpha" approaches, allowing investors to construct low-correlation portfolios across various asset classes [12].

近年来，在市场波动与低利率环境并存的背景下，FOF基金持续受到市场关注。据统计，2025年期间共计发行FOF基金89只，募集规模达845.29亿元，相较 2024年分别增长134.21%和628.82%。 为什么FOF基金热度逐渐攀升，市场开始重新审视这类产品？广发基金认为，FOF基金契合当前市场环境与投资者需求，本质是资产配置价值的回归与产品 力升级的共同结果。在复杂多变的市场中，FOF正成为普通投资者参与多元资产配置的优质工具。 FOF基金的优势——资产配置 "资产配置是投资中唯一的免费午餐"，FOF的核心运作逻辑就在于资产配置。有效的资产配置，一方面可以利用不同资产间的相关性降低组合风险，另一方 面可以通过分散化投资捕捉更多机遇，提高收益潜力。 在投资市场中，不同大类资产之间往往存在一定的相关性。例如，当股市调整时，债券可能因为避险需求而走强，呈现出负相关走势。而部分资产之间的相 关性则较弱，例如商品就和股债低相关，其走势受自身供需因素影响更为明显。 图1：大类资产之间的相关性 | | 相关性 | | | 股票 | | 债券 | | 9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Market Performance Overview - In the week from February 2 to February 6, 2025, gold prices increased while domestic equity market indices experienced fluctuations downward [4] - The food and beverage, beauty care, and power equipment sectors showed the highest gains, while non-ferrous metals, communication, and electronics sectors faced the largest declines [4] Fund Product Issuance - A total of 40 new funds were established in the domestic market this week, with a combined issuance of 30.859 billion units [5] - The breakdown of new funds includes 9 FOF funds, 16 equity funds, 7 bond funds, and 8 mixed funds [5] - Across the entire market, 33 new funds were issued, comprising 14 equity funds, 7 mixed funds, 6 FOF funds, and 6 bond funds [5] Fund Product Performance Tracking - Long-term thematic fund indices showed that consumer and new energy thematic funds increased in net value, while other thematic funds performed poorly, with TMT thematic funds experiencing significant declines [6] - As of February 6, 2026, the net value changes for various thematic funds were as follows: consumer (+0.94%), new energy (+0.38%), financial real estate (-0.03%), pharmaceuticals (-0.61%), national defense and military (-1.37%), industry rotation (-2.23%), industry balance (-2.56%), cyclical (-4.60%), and TMT (-5.74%) [6] ETF Market Tracking - This week, the pace of profit-taking in equity ETFs slowed, with a total outflow of 24.3 billion yuan from small and large-cap thematic ETFs, while Hong Kong stock ETFs saw a net inflow exceeding 10 billion yuan [7] - The median return for equity ETFs was -1.75%, with a net outflow of 7.801 billion yuan [7] - Hong Kong stock ETFs had a median return of -2.12% and a net inflow of 18.493 billion yuan, while cross-border ETFs had a median return of -2.51% with a net inflow of 3.210 billion yuan [7] - Commodity ETFs recorded a median return of -6.07% and a net outflow of 2.887 billion yuan [7] Broad-based ETF Insights - The week saw significant net inflows into the Sci-Tech Innovation Board thematic ETFs, totaling 5.507 billion yuan [8] - TMT thematic ETFs also experienced notable net inflows, amounting to 9.964 billion yuan [8] ESG Financial Product Tracking - This week, 21 new green bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 20.191 billion yuan [9] - The domestic green bond market has steadily developed, with a cumulative issuance scale of 5.26 trillion yuan and a total of 4,548 bonds issued as of February 6, 2026 [9] - The existing ESG funds in the domestic market total 211, with a combined scale of 156.021 billion yuan [9] - In terms of fund performance, the median net value changes for active equity, passive stock index, and bond ESG funds were -1.15%, -0.84%, and +0.05%, respectively, with low-carbon economy, clean energy, and carbon neutrality thematic funds performing well [9]

Core Insights - The real estate industry is transitioning to a stable development phase, leading to a shift in public investment needs from mere preservation to diversified value growth [1][15] - There is a significant adjustment in national asset allocation, with funds moving from traditional savings and real estate to standardized equity and fixed-income fund products [1][15] - The fund industry in China is expected to see substantial growth, with a projected total of 151,286 funds by October 2025, including 13,381 public funds and 137,905 private funds, with a total scale of 590,112.3 billion yuan [1][15] Overview of the Fund Industry - Funds, or securities investment funds, pool capital from multiple investors to create an independent asset managed by professional fund managers, allowing for diversified investment and risk sharing [2][16] - The benefits of funds include lower investment thresholds for ordinary investors, risk diversification, and professional management, although they still carry inherent market risks [2][16] Fund Classification - Funds can be categorized based on various criteria, including: - **By fundraising method**: Public funds (open to the public) and private funds (targeted at specific investors) [3][17] - **By investment object**: Money market funds, bond funds, stock funds, mixed funds, index funds, ETF funds, LOF funds, FOF funds, and QDII funds [3][17] - **By investment philosophy**: Active funds (managed to outperform the market) and passive funds (aiming to replicate market indices) [3][17] - **By operation mode**: Open-end funds (allowing continuous buying and selling) and closed-end funds (fixed size, traded on exchanges) [3][17] - **By trading venue**: On-exchange funds (traded like stocks) and off-exchange funds (purchased through fund companies or banks) [3][17] Development History - The development of China's fund industry has evolved through five key phases: pilot exploration, regulatory initiation, rapid expansion, transformation and adjustment, and high-quality development [6][20] - Recent trends indicate a shift towards professionalization, diversification, and internationalization, with innovative products like public REITs and ESG-themed funds emerging [6][20] Market Policies - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of the fund industry for the stability of the capital market and the support of the real economy, implementing various policies to encourage and regulate its development [8][22] - Key policies include initiatives for green finance, support for technology enterprises, and measures to enhance financial services for housing rental markets [8][22] Current Market Status - The fund industry is experiencing a migration of capital from traditional savings and real estate to standardized equity and fixed-income products, indicating a broadening of investment strategies among the public [1][15] - The multi-layered fund product system in China is now capable of meeting diverse wealth management needs, with significant growth potential in the coming years [1][15]

Market Review - The A-share market saw a decline across major indices, with the Small and Medium-sized Board Index, Shanghai Composite Index, and CSI 300 Index recording returns of -1.16%, -1.27%, and -1.33% respectively. In contrast, the STAR 50, ChiNext Index, and CSI 500 Index had poorer performance with returns of -5.76%, -3.28%, and -2.68% respectively [5][13] - The trading volume for major indices decreased last week, with all indices positioned within the 75%-95% historical percentile over the past 52 weeks [15][16] - In terms of industry performance, Food & Beverage, Textile & Apparel, and Banking sectors performed well with returns of 4.44%, 2.23%, and 2.08% respectively, while Non-ferrous Metals, Communication, and Electronics sectors lagged with returns of -8.46%, -6.73%, and -5.09% respectively [18][20] Fund Performance - A total of 40 new funds were established last week, with a combined issuance scale of 30.859 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week. Additionally, 33 funds entered the issuance phase, with 6 funds set to begin issuance this week [3][4] - The median returns for active equity, flexible allocation, and balanced mixed funds were -2.00%, -1.34%, and -1.63% respectively last week. Year-to-date, alternative funds have shown the best performance with a median return of 6.96% [32][34] - The median excess return for index-enhanced funds was 0.09%, while quantitative hedging funds had a median return of 0.11%. Year-to-date, the excess median for index-enhanced funds was 0.39% [35][36] ETF Market - As of the end of 2025, the domestic ETF market in China surpassed Japan, becoming the largest in Asia, with a total scale of 6.02 trillion yuan and 1,381 listed ETF products, marking a growth of 61.4% from the previous year [7][10] - The Hang Seng Index Company announced the launch of the Hang Seng Dual Technology Index in January 2026, which combines the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, reflecting the growth in both sectors [10] Central Bank Actions - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 756 billion yuan through reverse repos last week, with a total of 1.0055 trillion yuan injected into the market [21][22] - The central bank has increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with the official gold reserve reaching 74.06 million ounces as of January 2026, an increase of 40,000 ounces from December 2025 [11]