期货研究报告 今日各股指均大幅上涨。沪深京三市成交额 28322 亿元，较上日放量 2650 亿元。假期后股市连续放量上涨，主要源自假期后市场流动性回流以 及政策利好预期持续升温。近期政策面指出要建设现代化产业体系，优化提 升传统产业，加快战略新兴产业集群发展，推动未来产业建设，相关产业链 的股票在政策利好预期推动下显著上涨。资金面方面，融资余额和融资买入 金额同步回升，融资余额超 2.5 万亿元，融资买入金额接近 3000 亿元，说 明杠杆资金入市意愿较强，市场情绪较为乐观。中长期来看，政策面利好预 期以及资金净流入趋势构成驱动股指上行的主要逻辑。随着 2026 年政策面 不断落实落细政策利好，以及资金面持续净流入，股市风险偏好将持续上 升。总的来说，预计短期内股指震荡偏强运行。 期权方面，目前持仓量 PCR 与隐含波动率均位于正常区间，以牛市价 差或者比例价差温和看涨的思路对待。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 金融期权 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 金融期权 专业研究·创造价值 风险偏好持续回升，股指大幅上涨 核心观点 宝城期 ...

2026 年 1 月 4 日 重点转至政府债发行——资产配置周报 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：黄海澜 S1050523050002 huanghl@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《资金面超预期松弛——资产配 置周报》2025-12-21 2、《事件性冲击结束——资产配置 周报》2025-12-14 3、《流动性高点确认，关注事件性 冲击——资产配置周报》2025-12- 07 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 11 月实体部门负债 增速录得 8.6%，前值 8.7%，符合预期。预计 2025 年 12 月实 体部门负债增速下降至 8.3%附近，低于 2024 年底的 8.8%， 与稳定宏观杠杆率的目标一致。金融部门方面，上周资金面 边际上有所收敛，在 2025 年 12 月下旬资金面宽松超预期之 后，即便 2026 年 1 月资金面风险不大，再进一步明显改善的 概率也在下降。我们认为，观察重点转至 2026 年 1 月政府债 发行情况，就现有信息来看，2026 年 1 月政府债发行中规中 矩， ...

- The report focuses on the analysis of single-market indices, including comprehensive indices (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index) and component indices (e.g., SSE 50, ChiNext Index), highlighting their construction principles, industry distribution, and performance characteristics [1][3][50] - Comprehensive indices aim to cover the entire market or a specific segment without subjective selection, reflecting the overall market performance through total market capitalization weighting [3][4][10] - Component indices, such as SSE 50 and ChiNext Index, are constructed by selecting representative stocks based on criteria like market capitalization, liquidity, and industry position, aiming to efficiently reflect the performance of specific stock groups [50][51][52] - Comprehensive indices exhibit "broad coverage, low concentration" characteristics, with diluted individual stock weights due to the large number of constituents, while component indices show "high concentration" in both industry and stock weights, reflecting their focus on large-cap stocks [10][57][62] - The industry distribution of comprehensive indices is relatively balanced, with traditional large-cap sectors like banking having weight advantages, whereas component indices are more concentrated in specific industries, such as technology for ChiNext and banking for SSE 50 [5][53][57] - Market valuation analysis reveals that technology-focused indices (e.g., ChiNext, STAR 50) have higher PE and PB ratios compared to market-wide indices, indicating different pricing logic for growth-oriented sectors [21][65][69] - Performance analysis shows that technology-oriented indices outperformed in 2025 due to structural market trends, but their risk-adjusted returns (e.g., Sharpe ratio) are comparable to market-wide indices due to higher volatility [23][71][83] - Dividend analysis indicates that market-wide indices (e.g., Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Composite) have higher dividend yields compared to technology-focused indices, reflecting their composition of more mature, dividend-paying companies [41][80][87] - Profitability metrics, such as ROE and net profit growth, show that technology-focused indices generally have higher growth potential but exhibit greater volatility, while market-wide indices demonstrate more stable returns [43][89][93]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that annual rebalancing of indices is a systematic process governed by transparent rules rather than subjective market judgments, highlighting the importance of understanding these rules for effective investment strategies [5][8][11]. Group 1: Annual Rebalancing - The second Friday of December marks the annual rebalancing day for most indices, leading to changes in sample stocks and their valuations [5][6]. - Criticism often arises regarding the inclusion of high-performing stocks and the exclusion of underperforming ones, but these changes are a result of established rules rather than market speculation [6][10]. - Understanding that rebalancing reflects adherence to rules rather than market sentiment is crucial for investors [8][35]. Group 2: Market Capitalization Indices - Market capitalization indices, such as the CSI 300 and SSE 50, aim to represent key companies in the market based on size and liquidity, rather than seeking to capitalize on market fluctuations [16][17]. - These indices naturally exhibit a tendency to include companies that have increased in size and performance while excluding those that have declined, which can be misinterpreted as "buying high and selling low" [18][19]. - The design of market cap indices prioritizes transparency and alignment with economic structures over short-term gains [20][21]. Group 3: Strategy Indices - Strategy indices, like dividend indices, focus on specific factors such as dividend yield rather than market capitalization [24][25]. - These indices adjust their components based on the stability of dividend payments, leading to a different risk-return profile compared to market cap indices [28]. - The mechanism of strategy indices allows for continuous alignment with predetermined financial metrics, rather than predicting future market movements [27][28]. Group 4: Understanding Index Characteristics - Market capitalization indices and strategy indices serve different purposes and are not mutually exclusive; they address distinct investment needs [31][32]. - Market cap indices provide a baseline for market returns, while strategy indices can be used for risk management and income generation [32][33]. - Misinterpretation of indices often stems from short-term emotional reactions rather than a proper understanding of their long-term rules [34][35].

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有 据。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：六亿居士 来源：雪球 每年12月的第二个星期五的下一交易日 ， 是大部分指数的年度调仓日 。 如果平常注意指数编制规则 ， 我相信对此会有较深印象 。 今天正是这样的一个调仓日 ， 收盘之后不少指数的样本将发生变化 ， 指数的估值情况 、 行业分布 ， 也会随之产生一些调整 。 01 这几天 ， 我们可能会看到一些批判的声音 。 比如 ： 上证50又追涨杀跌啦 ， 沪深300纳入了某些涨幅巨大的科技股 ， 市值规模指数怎么剔除 了某个跌了很久的大白马 ？ 而与之相对的 ， 一些策略指数因为编制特性 ， 会出现高抛低吸的状态 。 比如红利类指数基于编制策略 ， 会剔除股息率下降较大的成份股 ， 纳入股息率较高的成份股 ， 从而完成指数的新老更替 。 这些现象 ， 本身并不假 ， 但如果 ...

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen adjusted on Monday morning, aligning with weekend analysis expectations. The market sentiment remains low, with the number of rising and falling stocks approximately equal [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are highlighted for further analysis after the afternoon close, with a focus on the Shanghai 50 Index first [1] Shanghai 50 Index - The Shanghai 50 Index opened lower due to a long lower shadow in last Friday's candlestick, indicating a need for a rebound. The early low opening serves as a method to fill this shadow [3] - After a low opening, the index reached a recent high but faced significant resistance, making a pullback normal. The trading volume was shrinking, suggesting that a strong upward movement is unlikely in the short term [3] - The hourly chart indicates that the index has completed five effective cycles of a recent upward movement, reaching a turning point. The long upper shadow in the second hour's candlestick released a clear adjustment signal, indicating that further adjustments are likely in the afternoon [3] ChiNext Index - The ChiNext Index has shown continuous adjustment signals over the past four trading days, with a long lower shadow in last Friday's candlestick making a lower opening today normal [6] - Although there was an early attempt to rise, it ultimately failed, suggesting that further adjustments are likely for the ChiNext Index [6] - The hourly chart shows that the index has completed its rebound target after last Friday's rise, indicating that it remains in an adjustment cycle and has not yet reached a turning point [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall macro - policy aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The liability growth rate of the real - sector is expected to decline in December 2025, and the government debt growth rate is also expected to continue to fall. - The economic situation on the asset side is weak, with the physical quantity data in October weaker than that in September. It is necessary to focus on when the economy will stabilize and pick up. - The stock - bond ratio is in an interval - shock state, currently with risk - preference at the upper limit of the interval and trending downward later. The stock - bond ratio is in favor of bonds, and the equity style is in favor of value [17][19][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.7%, the same as the previous value, and it is expected to drop to around 8.5% in December. The government debt growth rate was 13.1% at the end of November, and is expected to fall to around 12.5% in December. The capital market was basically stable last week, mainly due to the renewal of 750 billion special treasury bonds on the 12th, with a high probability of subsequent marginal convergence [17][18]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The net increase of government bonds last week was 298.1 billion yuan, higher than the planned net decrease of 510.2 billion yuan. It is planned that the government bonds will have a net decrease of 119.2 billion yuan next week [2][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the capital trading volume and price increased on a weekly average basis, and the term spread was stable. The one - year treasury bond yield fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.39% on the weekend. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year treasury bonds was stable at 45 basis points. The yield fluctuation ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [2][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in October was weaker than that in September. The annual real economic growth target in 2025 is about 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is about 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - **Economic Cycle**: Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in the fourth quarter of 2024. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016, and currently the liability - side convergence has not ended but the space is limited [6][20]. - **Overseas Situation**: China and the US are in a state of equal - power competition. If the valuation of the US technology field is re - evaluated, global funds may flow to China. It is necessary to focus on whether the RMB exchange rate will enter an appreciation channel [6][21]. - **Market Performance**: Last week, the capital market was stable, with stocks and bonds rising slightly, and the equity style shifting to growth - dominance. The bond yields at both long - and short - ends declined slightly, and the stock - bond ratio was in favor of bonds [7][21]. - **Investment Recommendation**: It is recommended to allocate long - term bonds and value - type equity assets. This week, it is recommended to allocate the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the 30 - year treasury bond ETF (20% position) [8][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, A - shares fell on heavy volume. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, national defense and military industry, electronics, machinery, and power equipment had the largest increases, while coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing had the largest declines [30]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 12, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, communication, machinery, and computers, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, and coal. The trading volume of the whole A - shares rebounded this week, with the trading volume of some industries increasing and that of some industries decreasing [31][34]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, machinery, and comprehensive increased the most, while that of coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing decreased the most. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, securities, insurance, etc. [37][38]. - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, the demand is declining marginally, with the global manufacturing PMI falling and the export growth rates of some countries fluctuating. Domestically, the second - hand housing price fell last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends [42]. - **Public Offering Market Review**: In the second week of December, most active public - offering equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of December 12, the net asset value of active public - offering equity funds increased slightly compared with that in Q4 2024 [60]. - **Industry Recommendation**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio is only slightly in favor of equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. A recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and slightly declined. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets throughout the day was 1.92 trillion yuan, a decrease of 134 billion yuan compared to the previous day. The Political Bureau meeting pointed out that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. The expectation of policy benefits continues to ferment, driving up the market's risk appetite. However, near the end of the year, the power of capital to drive the market to break through is insufficient, and there is still a need for short - term shock consolidation. Currently, the stock indices remain within the previous shock range. Subsequently, as more policy details are introduced at the Central Economic Work Conference, the expectation of policy benefits will gradually become the main line of the market, and the capital inflow is expected to continue, driving the stock indices to have a spring market. In general, the expectation of policy benefits is gradually fermenting, and the stock indices will be mainly fluctuating strongly in the short term. [3] - Regarding options, considering the long - term upward trend of the stock indices, a bull spread or ratio spread with a moderately bullish approach can be adopted. [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On December 9, 2025, the 50ETF fell 0.70% to close at 3.142; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.51% to close at 4.708; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.54% to close at 4.783; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.51% to close at 4598.22; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.57% to close at 7380.58; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.74% to close at 7.224; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.80% to close at 2.844; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.54% to close at 3.188; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.29% to close at 3.467; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.71% to close at 2997.96; the Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 0.42% to close at 1.41; the E Fund Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF fell 0.36% to close at 1.37. [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on December 9, 2025, and their changes compared with the previous trading day are provided in detail, such as the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options being 79.26 (previous day: 78.66), and the position PCR being 101.14 (previous day: 107.67). [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in December 2025 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options are presented, for example, the implied volatility of at - the - money options of SSE 50ETF options in December 2025 is 11.44%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 11.04%. [7][8] 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report provides a series of charts for different types of options, including the trends, volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different terms for options such as SSE 50ETF options, SSE 300ETF options, etc. [9][20][33]

Market Index Analysis - The major A-share indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen are undergoing adjustments, with most stocks declining and overall market sentiment being low [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are highlighted for further analysis, with a focus on the Shanghai 50 Index and the ChiNext Index in the afternoon [1] Shanghai 50 Index - The Shanghai 50 Index showed a strong bullish candlestick yesterday, but the upward momentum was insufficient, and the trading volume did not increase significantly [3] - Currently, the index is in an adjustment cycle after three effective upward cycles, indicating that further adjustments are expected [3] - The hourly chart indicates that after four effective upward cycles, the first hour of the morning session marked a turning point, leading to adjustments [3] ChiNext Index - The ChiNext Index has experienced four effective upward cycles over the past four trading days, with today marking the fifth cycle and a turning point [6] - The candlestick from yesterday had a large body but a long lower shadow, signaling a clear adjustment [6] - The hourly chart shows that after two hours of adjustment in the morning, there are still 2-3 cycles left before reaching a new turning point, suggesting continued adjustments in the afternoon [6]

Core Insights - The key to success in the trading competition for Chengdu Kaipule Asset Management Co., Ltd. was not precise predictions but the inherent advantages of an institutional trend-following system [1][2] - The best-performing strategy this year was index arbitrage, focusing on long positions in the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices while shorting the SSE 50 index [2] Strategy and Performance - The trading strategy was designed to capture the upward trend in the A-share market while providing effective risk hedging [2] - The approach involved a systematic analysis of macroeconomic cycles, identifying benefiting or adversely affected asset classes, and continuously tracking key data [2][4] - The transition from subjective prediction to systematic trend-following has led to significant improvements in trading performance [4] Risk Management - Emphasis on stop-loss mechanisms as a critical aspect of trading, including hard stop-loss orders and proactive exit strategies when market movements deviate from expectations [6] - The importance of capital management, including profit withdrawal to reset risk levels and a "anti-fragile" system design to safeguard profits during extreme market conditions [6] - Position management strategies include calculating position sizes based on maximum risk exposure and adjusting positions based on market changes [6] Personal Development and Philosophy - The trading journey has been characterized by exploration, setbacks, and transformation, leading to a refined trading philosophy [3][5] - The trader's unique emotional management approach focuses on allowing emotions to be managed through a behavioral system rather than confronting them directly [5] - The recognition of trading as a form of self-discovery, where understanding personal emotions like greed and fear contributes to long-term growth [6]