2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 外部烽烟再起，稳健为主 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《波动明显上升，适度回归稳健 —策 略周报》2026-02-01 2、《理性降温，景气度仍是避风港 —策 略周报》2026-01-18 3、《跨年波动或有上升，不改高景气主 线 —策略周报》2026-01-04 4、《继续耐心布局高景气 —策略周报》 2025-12-21 5、《由守转攻，布局高景气方向等风起 —策略周报》2025-12-07 投资要点 分析师：刘芳 【债市方面】止盈意愿有望减弱，区间震荡为主。春节后在两会前，债市存 在一定止盈压力，观望情绪上升。但外部冲突风险上升，风险偏好回落或利于 债市，债市调整风险有限。后续关注政策目标设定，若经济增长、赤字率目标 等设定并未明显强于预期，则债市风 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that A-shares are likely to experience a favorable upward trend in the next 1-2 months, driven by a combination of favorable timing, conditions, and human factors, particularly during the strong seasonal effect of spring and around the Chinese New Year [1] - The CSI 500 index rose by 0.2%, while the CSI 1000 index fell by 0.1%, the CSI 2000 index decreased by 0.4%, the STAR 100 index dropped by 0.8%, and the ChiNext Mid-cap 200 index declined by 0.3% [1] Group 2 - The CSI 500 ETF, which tracks the CSI 500 index, has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 37.6 times since its inception [3] - The CSI 1000 index, composed of 1,000 smaller and more liquid stocks, has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 50.4 times [4] - The CSI 2000 index, focusing on even smaller and more liquid stocks, has a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 168.4 times since its launch [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company "Bank Screw" has completely suspended subscriptions to its stock-related fund advisory portfolio, indicating that the current stock market is relatively high and investors may face a volatility risk of 20-30% if they enter now [2][19]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Investment Strategies - The current stock market is perceived as being at a high level, prompting the suspension of fund subscriptions [3][19]. - For ordinary investors, dividend index funds are recommended due to their relatively lower volatility, making them more suitable as an entry point [3][10]. - The recent performance of the STAR Market and ChiNext has shown significant volatility, making them more appropriate for experienced investors with higher risk tolerance [3][9]. - In 2026, two key signals to watch are the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and the recovery of fundamentals, which could impact market conditions significantly [4][22]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Fund Performance - A notable phenomenon exists where funds may be profitable while individual investors are not, with 37% of investors still losing money despite a bull market [7][8]. - The primary reasons for investor losses include chasing trends and frequent trading, which lead to higher transaction costs and lower average returns [8][10]. - The growth of dividend products has been accelerated by declining interest rates, making their cash flow more attractive compared to traditional savings [11][12]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Timing - The historical price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for major indices like the CSI 300 is between 8-15, with the current P/E ratio slightly above this range, indicating a potential overvaluation [14][15]. - Investors are advised to be cautious during bull markets, as significant price increases may not be sustainable, leading to potential mean reversion [16][17]. - The optimal investment strategy varies by market phase, with dividend stocks being more suitable in the latter stages of a bull market and early stages of a bear market [12][13]. Group 4: Key Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the overall recovery of corporate earnings are critical indicators for market performance in 2026 [22][27]. - Observing the year-on-year growth of corporate earnings in the first half of the year will be essential to gauge market momentum [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market and investment strategies, emphasizing the risks associated with high market valuations and the importance of cautious investment approaches for ordinary investors [2][24]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Investment Strategies - "Banking Screw" has completely suspended the subscription of stock-related fund advisory portfolios, indicating a belief that the current stock market is relatively high, with potential volatility risks of 20-30% for new investors [2][24]. - Ordinary investors are advised to consider low-volatility dividend index funds as a more suitable entry point due to their relative stability compared to high-volatility sectors like the Sci-Tech Board and Growth Enterprise Market [4][12]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding market cycles, suggesting that in a bull market's later stages, investors should be cautious and consider dividend strategies, while growth stocks may be more suitable during bear market recovery phases [18][19]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Fund Performance - A significant portion of fund investors have experienced losses despite overall fund profitability, with 37% of investors losing money even in a bull market as of September 2025 [9][10]. - The primary reasons for investor losses include chasing market trends and frequent trading, which lead to higher transaction costs and lower average returns [10][11]. - The article notes that the growth of dividend funds has been accelerated by declining interest rates, making their cash flow more attractive compared to traditional savings [13][14]. Group 3: Key Signals for 2026 - Two critical signals for 2026 include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and the recovery of corporate earnings, which could significantly impact market conditions [5][30]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor the recovery of earnings growth to historical averages, as this could provide a positive push for the overall market [37][38]. - The potential tightening of global liquidity due to the end of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is highlighted as a risk factor that could affect previously high-performing assets [33][34].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the shift in global asset pricing logic from focusing on growth and policy to being influenced by conflicts and uncertainties, particularly in the context of rising geopolitical risks and their impact on investment strategies [3][4]. Group 1: Global Market Dynamics - Over the past decade, global asset pricing has primarily revolved around central bank policies, inflation trajectories, and economic growth, but this framework is changing due to prolonged geopolitical conflicts [4]. - The World Economic Forum's 2026 Global Risk Report identifies "geoeconomic confrontation" and "interstate conflict" as major long-term risks, indicating a heightened focus on tail risks among global investors [4][5]. Group 2: Impact of Geopolitical Risks - The changing landscape leads to three main impacts: asset prices becoming more sensitive to sudden events, increased risk premiums for safe and physical assets, and a decline in the effectiveness of relying solely on economic recovery and profit growth for asset allocation [6]. - The surge in gold prices above $5,000 per ounce and silver prices above $100 per ounce reflects the dominance of "conflict premium and safe-haven demand" in pricing, indicating a need for strategies that address both trends and uncertainties [6]. Group 3: China's Asset Advantages - China's assets are gaining recognition for their policy independence, which is particularly valuable in a high-uncertainty environment, as the country maintains a focus on stable growth and liquidity [9]. - This policy orientation suggests that Chinese assets are less exposed to external geopolitical conflicts, making them more attractive for long-term investors seeking stability and potential growth [9]. Group 4: Investment Reallocation - With the expiration of high-interest deposits and a low-interest environment, long-term funds are seeking new allocation directions, with potential flows into wealth management, insurance, public funds, and A-shares [10]. - The annualized return of the CSI 300 index at approximately 7.62% highlights the relative attractiveness of equity assets compared to other investment options, such as real estate and government bonds [10]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Strategy - A-shares are positioned as a core holding in investment portfolios due to their lower direct exposure to external conflicts and the potential for policy support [12]. - Satellite positions in portfolios should focus on commodities and macro strategies to enhance flexibility and mitigate risks associated with geopolitical uncertainties [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the A-share market showed a significant differentiation pattern of "small and medium-cap stocks leading, large-cap stocks under pressure", with the CSI 500 index performing the best. The trading volume of the two markets first declined, then stabilized, and then increased again, maintaining a high level of trading activity. Policy support for emerging industries and advanced manufacturing, along with high market risk appetite and capital preference for small and medium-cap stocks, drove the continuous strengthening of small and medium-cap stock indices. Meanwhile, cooling operations such as multiple surges in broad-based ETFs affected large-cap stocks more significantly, exacerbating the divergence between large and small-cap indices [2]. - Next week, focus on the Fed's January interest rate meeting, with the market expecting the interest rate to remain unchanged, and the core point being the statement on the interest rate cut path. The ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 500 has reached a five-year low. Historically, policy orientation, structural changes in fundamentals, and shifts in capital preferences are the core drivers of style switching. In the short term, the leading pattern of the CSI 500 is expected to continue, and a neutral to bullish approach is maintained, but beware of the technical correction risk caused by the local overheating of small and medium-cap stock indices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Analysis - This week, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.62%, the SSE 50 index by 1.54%, the CSI 500 index by 4.34%, and the CSI 1000 index by 2.89%. The CSI 500 index performed the best [7]. - The trading volume of the two markets first declined, then stabilized, and then increased again, maintaining a high level of trading activity [2]. - The recent trade conflict between the US and Europe over Greenland has affected European stock markets, but the impact on A-shares is limited. A-shares maintain a relatively independent operation rhythm due to China's industrial chain integrity, policy support, and a rich policy toolbox [30]. 2. Key Focus and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Fed's January Interest Rate Meeting - The market expects the Fed to keep the interest rate unchanged in January, and the core focus is on the statement of the interest rate cut path. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate at 275 - 300 basis points in January 2026 is 97.2% [2][31]. 2.2 The Ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 500 Reaches a Five - Year Low: Can the Structural Market Continue? - The ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 500 has reached a five - year low. In September 2021, August 2021, and other periods, there were also significant market trends related to the CSI 500 and CSI 300. Policy orientation, structural changes in fundamentals, and shifts in capital preferences are the core drivers of style switching [2][32][34]. 2.3 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In the short term, the leading pattern of the CSI 500 is expected to continue. It is recommended to maintain a neutral to bullish approach, but beware of the technical correction risk caused by the local overheating of small and medium - cap stock indices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market in 2026 is the result of the combined effects of four factors: the resonance of the technology cycle, the release of policy dividends, the recovery of the economy, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new stage driven by earnings. It is expected that the supply - side reform will continue in 2026, pushing up the prices of commodities and driving up resource - based stocks. Under the strategic guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with the continuous release of policy effects, the further enhancement of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds allocating Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different terms increased, with the daily increase ranging from 0.35% to 0.49%. The trading volume of the IF next - month contract was 74,116.00, and the open interest decreased by 6,123.00 [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The prices of IH contracts showed mixed trends, with the daily change ranging from - 0.07% to 0.08%. The trading volume of the IH next - month contract was 34,230.00, and the open interest increased by 1,743.00 [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The prices of IC contracts increased significantly, with the daily increase ranging from 1.79% to 2.03%. The trading volume of the IC next - month contract was 101,832.00, and the open interest decreased by 4,994.00 [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The prices of IM contracts also increased, with the daily increase ranging from 1.55% to 1.81%. The trading volume of the IM next - month contract was 133,027.00, and the open interest decreased by 6,631.00 [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with the current values of - 1.40, 3.80, - 2.20, and - 29.00 respectively [1]. 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.09%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.11%, the CSI 500 index increased by 1.12%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.79% [1]. - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the raw materials industry increased by 1.51%, the information technology industry increased by 2.91%, while the energy industry decreased by 0.66%, the optional consumption industry decreased by 0.88%, the main consumption industry decreased by 1.61%, the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry decreased by 0.67%, the real estate and finance industry decreased by 1.27%, and the public utilities industry decreased by 1.25% [1]. 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between futures and spot for different contracts changed. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract to the CSI 300 index increased from - 8.28 to 1.13 [1]. 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.70%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.54% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.37%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.41%, the S&P 500 increased by 1.16%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.51% [1]. 3.5 Macro Information - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, efforts will be made to promote the construction of "good houses" and build a new real - estate development model, and promote the spot - sale system for commercial housing [2]. - The US and NATO reached an agreement framework on the Greenland issue, and the US will not implement the originally planned tariff measures, which led to a sharp rise in US stocks and a decline in spot silver [2]. - The EU will hold an emergency summit, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the EU to avoid protectionism and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises [2]. - Five departments including the Ministry of Finance announced the establishment of new duty - free shops at 41 ports, and residents entering from Macau can purchase duty - free goods worth up to 15,000 RMB at the Hengqin Port [2]. - Three departments including the Ministry of Finance extended the tax policies for innovative enterprise CDRs until December 31, 2027, with preferential tax policies for individual investors and public funds [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - China's first offshore liquid rocket launch and recovery test platform will be put into use, and a mainstream commercial liquid rocket will conduct a launch and recovery test around the Spring Festival [2]. - In 2025, China's commercial space industry developed rapidly, with 50 launches accounting for 54% of the total number of space launches in the country, including 25 launches of commercial launch vehicles. A total of 311 commercial satellites were put into orbit, accounting for 84% of the total number of satellites put into orbit in the country [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology expects that the core scale of China's artificial intelligence industry will exceed 1.2 trillion yuan in 2025, with over 330 humanoid robot products released, and has launched the second - stage technology test of 6G. It will strengthen the support of the national artificial intelligence industry investment fund for humanoid robots [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revised and issued two review requirements to strengthen the access management of road motor vehicle production enterprises and products [2]. 3.7 Stock Index Views - US stock indexes rose. In the previous trading day, stock indexes were divided, with the non - ferrous metals sector leading the rise and the banking sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.62 trillion yuan. On January 20, the margin trading balance decreased by 13.912 billion yuan to 2.69202 trillion yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The continuous improvement of the stock market in 2026 is the result of the combined effects of the technology cycle resonance, policy dividend release, economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market has gradually shifted from being dominated by valuation expansion to a new phase driven by earnings. It is expected that in 2026, supply - side reforms will continue, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas funds' allocation of Chinese assets under the strategic guidance of the "15th Five - Year Plan", the stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - For IF contracts: The closing prices of IF contracts on the previous two days were 4737.00 (current month), 4725.80 (next month), 4723.20 (next quarter), and 4680.00 (alternate quarter). The previous day's closing prices were 4732.80, 4728.60, 4688.80, and 4633.80 respectively. The price changes were - 3.99, 5.00, - 30.40, and - 44.80. The trading volumes were 23746.00, 73045.00, 18164.00, and 5287.00 respectively, and the open interest changes were 38577.00, 139389.00, - 119648.00, and - 62607.00 [1] - Similar data were provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes [1] - The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were also presented, showing the differences between the next - month and current - month contracts [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - For the CSI 300 Index: The previous value of the index was 4734.46, with a trading volume of 267.61 billion lots and a total trading value of 6551.49 billion yuan. The value two days ago was 4731.87, with a trading volume of 325.28 billion lots and a total trading value of 7856.24 billion yuan. The increase rate was 0.05% [1] - Similar data were provided for the SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, including index points, trading volumes, total trading values, and increase rates [1] - The performance of different industries in the CSI 300 industry index was also shown, with some industries rising and others falling. For example, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption industries had positive growth rates, while the main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had negative growth rates [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis between futures and spot prices was calculated for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts against their corresponding spot indices (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000), showing the differences between futures and spot prices on the previous day and two days ago [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had different increase or decrease rates. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.29%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.09%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.30%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.70% [1] - Overseas indexes such as the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index also had different performance, with the Hang Seng Index decreasing by 1.05%, the Nikkei 225 decreasing by 0.65%, the S&P Index decreasing by 0.06%, and the DAX Index decreasing by 1.34% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - China's economic "report card" for 2025 was released. The GDP increased by 5% year - on - year, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with a 4.5% growth in the fourth quarter. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the service industry's added value increased by 5.4%, accounting for 57.7% of GDP. The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 52%. Fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with real - estate development investment decreasing by 17.2% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance will hold important press conferences today [2] - The tickets for the first day of the Spring Festival travel season went on sale on January 19, 2026. The Spring Festival travel season by railway will last from February 2 to March 13, with an expected 5.39 billion passenger trips, a 5% increase year - on - year. The civil aviation passenger volume during the Spring Festival travel season is expected to reach a record high of 95 million [2] - The US president announced tariff hikes on 8 countries, and the Chinese foreign ministry responded [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly deployed the construction of zero - carbon factories, with the goal of cultivating a number of zero - carbon factories in industries such as automotive, lithium - battery, photovoltaic, and electronic appliances by 2027 and gradually expanding to traditional high - energy - consuming industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals by 2030 [2] - The housing price data of 70 large and medium - sized cities in December last year showed that the housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month, with the year - on - year decline widening. In the second - hand housing market, all 70 cities' housing prices decreased month - on - month, with the decline in first - tier cities narrowing. In the new - housing market, the decline in first - tier cities also narrowed, and Shanghai was the only first - tier city where new - housing prices increased both month - on - month (0.2%) and year - on - year (4.8%) [2] - China successfully launched the 19th group of low - orbit satellites for the satellite internet. China Star Network has launched over 150 satellites, with a short - term goal of having 400 satellites in orbit by 2027 [2] - Domestic refined oil prices will be adjusted at 24:00 on January 20, with an expected increase of about 90 yuan per ton on January 21, which may be the first increase this year [2]

Capital Market Performance - The CSI All Share Index closed at 5,919.12 points in December, marking a 3.25% increase [2] - Major A-share market indices generally rose, with the CSI 500 Index increasing by 6.17% [4] - The CSI All Share primary industry indices showed mixed results, with the materials index rising by 10.72% [6] Thematic Indices - The satellite industry index surged by 42.46%, the satellite navigation index increased by 28.42%, and the general aviation index rose by 25.36% in December [8] Style and Dividend Indices - Major style indices saw widespread increases, with the 800 Growth Index and the 500 Growth Index rising by 7.05% and 6.01%, respectively [11] - Dividend indices had mixed results, with the dividend growth index up by 2.77% and the private enterprise dividend index up by 1.58% [11] Cross-Border and Offshore Indices - Major cross-border and offshore indices experienced slight declines, with the mainland enterprise index and the Hong Kong Stock Connect 50 index down by 0.53% and 0.56%, respectively [11] Fixed Income Indices - The CSI All Bond Index rose by 0.13% in December [13] - The performance of various bond indices varied, with the CSI Government Bond Index down by 0.45% and the CSI Corporate Bond Index up by 0.13% [14] Fund Index Performance - The CSI Equity Fund Index increased by 2.81% in December [15] Trading Activity - Total trading volume for Shanghai stocks reached 178,366.96 million yuan, up by 10.34% from the previous month [17] - Shenzhen stocks had a total trading volume of 250,516.12 million yuan, marking a 14.94% increase [17] - The average daily trading amount for Shanghai stocks was 7,755.09 million yuan, down by 4.06% [17] Index Publication Overview - As of December 2025, the China Securities Index Company published a total of 2,827 indices, including 1,800 stock indices, which account for 64% of the total [25]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The continuous improvement of the stock market in 2026 is the result of the combined effects of the technology cycle resonance, policy dividend release, economic recovery, and overseas capital inflow. The market has gradually shifted from valuation expansion to profit - driven. It is expected that supply - side reform will continue in 2026, pushing up commodity prices and driving up resource - based stocks. With the continuous release of policy effects, the further strengthening of economic recovery momentum, and the continuous progress of overseas capital allocation of Chinese assets, the stock market is expected to continue its volatile upward trend [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts increased, with the increase in the current month contract being 15.00 points and a rise of 0.32%. The trading volume of each contract was 29122.00, 18351.00, 81140.00, and 17229.00 respectively, and the open interest decreased by 10720.00 in the current month contract and increased by 4194.00 in the next month contract [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with the current month contract falling by 7.40 points and a decline of 0.24%. The trading volume of each contract was 10975.00, 6924.00, 34976.00, and 6009.00 respectively, and the open interest decreased in the current month and next - season contracts [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts increased, with the current month contract rising by 11.40 points and a rise of 0.14%. The trading volume of each contract was 32673.00, 26360.00, 110213.00, and 26152.00 respectively, and the open interest changed differently in each contract [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts increased, with the current month contract rising by 24.80 points and a rise of 0.30%. The trading volume of each contract was 38012.00, 29827.00, 148081.00, and 31844.00 respectively, and the open interest changed in each contract [1]. - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with the current values being - 0.40, - 0.20, 2.60, and - 14.00 respectively, different from the previous values [1]. 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.20%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.21%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 0.05%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 0.20%. The trading volume and turnover of each index also changed [1]. - **Industry Index Performance**: Different industries in the CSI 300 industry index showed different trends, with the energy, raw materials, and telecommunications industries rising, and the main consumption, pharmaceutical, and real - estate finance industries falling [1]. 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The futures - spot basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed compared with the previous two days, with different values for each contract and different trends [1]. 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.41%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.71%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.56% [1]. - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.28%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.42%, the S&P index increased by 0.26%, and the DAX index increased by 0.26% [1]. 5. Macroeconomic Information - The central bank took a series of measures to support high - quality economic development, including lowering re - loan and re - discount rates, increasing various loan quotas, expanding the scope of support for carbon - emission reduction tools, and lowering the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing loans. The central bank also stated that there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts this year [2]. - The US will impose a 25% ad - valorem import tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives starting from January 15 [2]. - Chinese Premier Li Qiang held talks with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and the two sides witnessed the signing of multiple cooperation documents [2]. - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that in 2026, the Ministry of Commerce will focus on "three focuses" to release consumption potential [2]. - Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir - Abdollahian, expressing opposition to the use or threat of force in international relations [2]. 6. Industry Information - Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao said that in 2026, China will actively expand independent opening - up, including expanding the opening of service sectors and promoting zero - tariff measures for African countries [2]. - During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, State Grid's fixed - asset investment will reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the 14th Five - Year Plan period [2]. - In 2025, the number of idle land parcels to be acquired using special bonds exceeded 5500, with a total land value exceeding 750 billion yuan, and more than 300 billion yuan of special bonds have been issued [2]. - The 2nd Commercial Space Industry Development Conference and the 2026 Commercial Space Exhibition will be held in Shenzhen from March 17 - 18, focusing on hot topics in the commercial space industry [2]. 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index mainly fluctuated and corrected, with the electronics sector leading the rise and the comprehensive sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.94 trillion yuan. The margin ratio for margin trading was adjusted on January 14, 2026 [2].