产业基本面上，2026年英伟达Rubin出货预期上调，头部龙头企业或将开始上调明年1.6T的总需求至 1500万，且仍有上修动能。此次需求上修不仅直接增厚了头部厂商的盈利预期，更强化了AI算力驱动 下光模块高景气周期的持续性与确定性。上游CW光源、EML光芯片及关键设备（MOCVD/电子束）排 产紧张，供给约束增强，价格与毛利率韧性提升，龙头受益度更高。 此外，谷歌gemini3系列有望于10月22日发布，或将为板块行情带来催化。Gemini 3.0 预计将在多个维 度超越现有的顶尖模型 Gemini 2.5 Pro。新模型有望优化延迟和成本控制方面，这意味着更快、更经济 的 AI 服务。 国内外云厂商持续加大资本开支，直接利好光模块、IDC板块。根据国信证券，北美CSP云厂(包括亚马 逊、谷歌、Meta、微软、甲骨文等)计划2025财年资本开支超过3700亿美金,同比增长40%。其中,甲骨文 最新一季财报显示,其FY26Q1末剩余履约义务(RPO)达4550亿美元，较上季度末增加3170亿美元。公司 将继续加大AI投入,预计2026财年资本开支达350亿美元。10月6日OpenAI宣布与AMD共同部署6GW ...

Market Performance - On October 20, the market experienced high-level fluctuations in the early session, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.16 trillion yuan, a decrease of 16.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index surged by 2.49%. Notably, overseas computing power was strong, with the ChiNext AI ETF rising by 4.14% and the communication ETF increasing by 3.97% [1]. Factors Driving the Upsurge - Nvidia's Rubin shipment expectations for 2026 have been raised, and the competitive landscape in the optical module market remains stable. If the market expands, it is theoretically expected that the performance of related manufacturers will also improve [2]. - The upcoming release of Google's Gemini 3 series has generated buzz, with leaked demo tests indicating its strong capabilities. Gemini 3 addresses AI display issues with precision down to the second hand, outperforming GPT-5 in certain aspects. The number of tokens processed by Google has seen a significant increase, surpassing 1.3 trillion monthly, up from 980 trillion in July and 480 trillion in May, indicating a steep growth trajectory [2]. Market Outlook - The AI wave is expected to continue, with a focus on computing power as the main line. The acceleration of industrialization is evident, with overseas infrastructure investments resonating with performance and mature business models leading to a noticeable speed-up in AI. Domestically, the production of domestic GPUs is accelerating, and domestic computing power remains strong. Recent tariff expectations have led to a pullback in computing power, presenting potential low-position investment opportunities [4]. - There is a caution regarding short-term pullback risks. Geopolitical tensions and tariff risks are expected to have a relatively larger impact on consumer electronics and communications sectors, while the semiconductor sector is less affected. Multiple disruptive events may increase market volatility, and significant developments may remain uncertain ahead of APEC [5]. Investment Considerations - Following previous pullbacks, better investment opportunities may arise. Investors are encouraged to consider both domestic and overseas computing power investments, with a focus on communication ETFs (515880) and semiconductor equipment ETFs (159516) [5].