讲究 所 行业轮动ETF策略周报 证券分析师:张一 S0670524030001 010-83270999-97050 zhangyi@cnht. com. cn 2025年11月24日 证券分析师:李杜 S0670524040001 021-50800937 l idu@cnht. com. cn 策略说明: · 金融街证券研究所基于策略报告《行业轮动下的策略组合报告:基于行业风格延续和 切换视角下的定量分析》(20241007)和《股票型ETF市场概览与配置方法研究:以基 于行业轮动策略的ETF组合为例》(20241013),构建基于行业和主题ETF的策略组合。 策略更新: | 基金代码 | ETF名称 | ETF市值 | 持有情况 | 重仓申万 行业 | | 周度择时信号 日度择时信号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | 及权重 | 参考 | 参考 | | 159227 | 航空航天ETF | 19.88 | 继续持有 | 航空装备 (59.16%) | -1 | -1 | | 159667 | 工业母机ETF | 5 ...

（责任编辑：刘静 HZ010） ETF方面，美股生物科技板块走高，汇添富基金纳指生物科技ETF、嘉实基金标普生物科技ETF分 别涨2.88%和2.66%。卫星互联网板块走强，华夏基金航空航天ETF、平安基金通用航空ETF基金分别涨 2.83%、2.71%。 A股三大指数高开低走，截至午盘，沪指跌0.34%，深成指跌0.59%，创业板指跌0.77%，北证50指 数跌0.12%，沪深京三市半日成交额10325亿元，较上日缩量2849亿元。全市场超3200只个股上涨。 板 块题材上，军工装备、商业航天板块活跃，锂、海南板块调整。 稀有金属板块继续走低，稀有金属ETF、稀有金属ETF基金分别跌3.86%、3.71%。AI硬件板块继续 回调，通信ETF跌3.14%。新能源板块走低，新能源汽车ETF跌2.9%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with a total trading volume of 1.71 trillion yuan, a decrease of 177 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.12% [1] Sector Performance - The computing power sector was active in trading, while sectors such as banking and building materials saw gains. Conversely, coal and electricity sectors faced pressure [1] Computing Power Insights - Despite the active trading in the computing power sector, many stocks opened high but closed lower. The main catalyst was NVIDIA's quarterly report, which showed revenue of $57 billion, a year-over-year increase of 62% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 22%. The data center revenue was $51.2 billion, exceeding market expectations [2] Mergers and Acquisitions in Securities Industry - The securities industry continues to see mergers, with China International Capital Corporation planning to absorb Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities through A-share issuance. If successful, the combined assets of the three firms will reach 1,009.583 billion yuan, with revenues of 27.39 billion yuan and net profits of 9.52 billion yuan [3] Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment remains optimistic for the upcoming year, driven by factors such as capital market reforms and policies aimed at stabilizing growth. Investors are encouraged to maintain confidence in the market [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.18% at 3946.74 points, while the Shenzhen Component remained flat and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.25% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.73 trillion, a decrease of 200.2 billion from the previous trading day [1] - The overall market sentiment was weak, with over 4100 stocks declining, indicating a risk-averse environment [1] Investment Strategy - The current market pullback does not signify the end of the bull market, as excess liquidity continues to increase and optimistic sentiments remain, particularly in technology and export sectors [1][2] - Two key strategies are suggested: balancing between mainline and defensive stocks, and waiting for an uplift in income expectations [1][2] Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly AI, and industries related to de-involution such as photovoltaic and lithium battery resources, remain key areas of focus [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider ETFs related to communication, chips, photovoltaic, and coal [2] Bond Market Insights - The bond market continues to show a consolidation trend, with the ten-year government bond ETF slightly down by 0.04% [3] - The central bank's cautious approach to monetary policy is leading to uncertainty in interest rates, with a focus on avoiding excessive liquidity [3] Lithium Market Dynamics - The lithium sector is experiencing a resurgence, with lithium carbonate futures rising by 5% to over 100,000 yuan per ton, driven by strong demand in downstream applications [4] - Investors are advised to monitor ETFs related to lithium mining and non-ferrous metals, as the sector is expected to benefit from ongoing demand [4] Gold Market Trends - Gold stocks ETF surged by 4.55%, with spot gold prices returning to 4100 USD per ounce, indicating a potential upward trend in the gold market [5][6] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset is increasing due to global uncertainties and the challenges facing the US dollar credit system [6] Future Outlook - The potential for gold prices to exceed 5000 USD per ounce next year is highlighted, contingent on ongoing macroeconomic conditions and central bank policies [6] - Investors are encouraged to explore gold ETFs that directly invest in physical gold and those that focus on gold mining stocks for greater volatility and potential returns [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline across major indices last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 1000, and CSI 300 showing returns of -0.18%, -0.52%, and -1.08% respectively. In contrast, the STAR 50, ChiNext Index, and SME Board Index had poorer performances with returns of -3.85%, -3.01%, and -1.71% respectively [1] - In terms of industry performance, consumer services, textiles and apparel, and pharmaceuticals led with returns of 4.81%, 4.43%, and 3.29% respectively, while communication, electronics, and computers lagged with returns of -4.90%, -4.44%, and -3.72% respectively [1] Fund Flow - The ETF market saw a net inflow of 29.317 billion yuan last week, with stock ETFs contributing 17.352 billion yuan, QDII stock ETFs 5 billion yuan, commodity ETFs 5.957 billion yuan, money market fund ETFs 1.236 billion yuan, and bond ETFs experiencing a net outflow of 0.276 billion yuan [2] - Specific indices that saw significant net inflows include SGE Gold 9999 (5.573 billion yuan), STAR 50 (3.532 billion yuan), and ChiNext AI (2.300 billion yuan) [4] - Conversely, indices such as CSI A500 and CSI 300 experienced notable net outflows of 4.055 billion yuan and 2.640 billion yuan respectively [2][4] ETF Performance - The median weekly return for stock ETFs was -1.09%, with the CSI 50 ETF showing the highest median return of 0.02% among broad-based ETFs. Consumer ETFs had a median return of 2.10%, the highest among sectors [11] - Top-performing ETFs included the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF (10.92%), Hang Seng Innovative Drug ETF (10.80%), and Tourism ETF (9.30%) [12][14] - In contrast, ETFs such as 5G Communication ETF and Communication ETF saw declines of -7.03% and -6.89% respectively [16][18] New Fund Activity - A total of 56 funds were reported last week, an increase from the previous week, including one QDII and several thematic ETFs [20] - 25 new funds were established with a total issuance scale of 14.173 billion yuan, which is a decrease compared to the previous week [20] - 41 funds entered the issuance phase last week, with 33 more expected to begin issuance this week [21] Hot News - Several cross-border ETFs have been flagged for premium risks due to significant discrepancies between market trading prices and net asset values [22] - The "Southbound ETF" program expanded on November 10, adding six ETFs to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, increasing the total number of products from 17 to 23 [23]

Strategy Overview - The report focuses on the industry rotation ETF strategy, recommending a portfolio based on industry and thematic ETFs, with an emphasis on quantitative analysis of industry style continuation and switching [2][3]. Recommended Sectors and Products - For the week of November 17, 2025, the model recommends increasing allocations to sectors such as communication equipment, consumer electronics, and real estate development. New additions include real estate ETF, consumer electronics ETF, and gaming ETF, while continuing to hold communication ETF and VRETF [2][3]. Performance Tracking - From November 10 to November 14, 2025, the strategy recorded a cumulative net return of approximately -2.23%, with an excess return of -1.11% compared to the CSI 300 ETF. Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative return of the strategy is about 22.80%, with an excess return of 0.64% relative to the CSI 300 ETF [2][3][11].

当新消费的热潮尚未完全褪去，科技板块已悄然开启反弹；刚理清创新药赛道的投资逻辑，有色金属板 块又突然异军突起——在A股轮动较快的市场环境中，机构投资者凭借专业性和市场敏锐度，常常踩中 投资风口。而普通投资者却往往因为精力所限，时常陷入投资困境：要么追逐热点沦为"高位站岗"的接 盘者，要么面对机构隐秘的资金动向难以应对，错失布局良机。 为打破这一投资难题，助力投资者把握投资机会，日前，平安证券与天弘基金联合打造的ETF投资工 具"机构快车"，已正式登陆平安证券APP。这款历经两年实盘测试的工具，以"专业机构的力量"为内核， 为广大投资者提供了应对行业轮动难题的思路，其不仅是两大金融机构投研实力的结晶，背后更是天弘 基金在量化策略、投资工具领域的积淀。 | 16:39 = 图 & | | | NO * 11 74 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ETFSX | | | | | | HK | | ETF大赛 | 买宽基 | 买全球 | ┣顾家 | | ​ក៏​ន | | | | | ETF排行 | ETF对比 | 机会宝 | 实盘牛 机构快车 | | 实时关注榜 | | | 热点 ...

Market Overview - The three major A-share indices collectively adjusted today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.38%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.52%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.74% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 12,680 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,864 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,900 stocks in the market experienced an increase [1] Sector Performance - The sectors with the highest gains included cultivated diamonds, photovoltaic equipment, battery chemicals, gas, pharmaceutical commerce, and non-ferrous metals [1] - The sectors with the largest declines included coal mining and processing, insurance, liquor, AI corpus, computing power hardware, and securities [1] ETF Performance - In the ETF market, Hong Kong automotive ETFs showed strong performance, with gains of 2.38%, 2.35%, and 2.26% for Guangfa Fund, ICBC Credit Suisse Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge Fund respectively [1] - The new energy sector also performed well, with Penghua Fund's Science and Technology New Energy ETF rising by 1.94% [1] - Gold prices continued to rise, with Tianhong Fund's Shanghai Gold ETF increasing by 1.86% [1] - The coal sector saw significant declines, with the coal ETF down 2.56% [1] - The AI hardware sector weakened, with both the communication ETF and communication equipment ETF falling by 2% [1] - Consumer electronics concept stocks weakened, with the consumer electronics ETF down 1.63% [1]

Report Overview - The report is a weekly strategy report on sector rotation ETFs from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025 [2] Core Views - The strategy is based on two research reports and constructs a strategy portfolio of sector and thematic ETFs [2] - For the week of November 10, 2025, the model recommends allocating to sectors such as communication equipment, software development, and consumer electronics [2] - The strategy will add holdings of Cloud Computing ETF, Battery ETF, Industrial Non - Ferrous Metals ETF, etc., and continue to hold Communication ETF, VR ETF, etc. Some ETFs and target index trading timing signals gave daily or weekly risk warnings as of last weekend [2] Performance Tracking - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the cumulative net return of the strategy was approximately - 0.76%, and the excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was approximately - 1.58% [2] - Since October 14, 2024, the cumulative out - of - sample return of the strategy was about 25.60%, and the cumulative excess return relative to the CSI 300 ETF was about 2.13% [2] Recommended Portfolio for the Next Week (20251110 - 20251114) | Fund Code | ETF Name | ETF Market Cap (Billion Yuan) | Holding Status | Coincident Shenwan Sector and Weight | Weekly Timing Signal | Daily Timing Signal | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 515880 | Communication ETF | 117.77 | Continue to hold | Communication Equipment (75.3%) | 1 | 0 | | 516510 | Cloud Computing ETF | 19.86 | Add | Software Development (30.54%) | 0 | 0 | | 159786 | VR ETF | 2.10 | Continue to hold | Consumer Electronics (28.46%) | 1 | - 1 | | 159755 | Battery ETF | 165.64 | Add | Battery (62.54%) | 1 | 1 | | 560860 | Industrial Non - Ferrous Metals ETF | 56.84 | Add | Industrial Metals (57.65%) | 1 | 1 | | 512220 | TMT ETF | 5.48 | Continue to hold | Semiconductor (37.25%) | 1 | 0 | | 512660 | Military Industry ETF | 142.21 | Add | Aviation Equipment (35.02%) | 0 | - 1 | | 159870 | Chemical Industry ETF | 172.55 | Add | Chemical Products (25.73%) | 1 | 1 | | 159667 | Industrial Mother Machine ETF | 6.04 | Add | Automation Equipment (47.2%) | 1 | - 1 | | 588830 | Science and Innovation New Energy ETF | 10.06 | Add | Photovoltaic Equipment (46.08%) | 1 | 1 | [2] Holdings and Performance in the Past Week (20251103 - 20251107) | Fund Code | ETF Name | ETF Market Cap (Billion Yuan) | Recent 1 - week Return (%) | Holding Status | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 515880 | Communication ETF | 117.77 | 0.40 | Continue to hold | | 159768 | Real Estate ETF | 5.88 | - 0.66 | Remove | | 159869 | Game ETF | 113.12 | - 0.49 | Remove | | 562050 | Pharmaceutical ETF | 1.06 | - 3.04 | Remove | | 512800 | Bank ETF | 205.57 | 2.71 | Remove | | 159766 | Tourism ETF | 35.92 | 2.32 | Remove | | 512220 | TMT ETF | 5.48 | - 0.47 | Continue to hold | | 159786 | VR ETF | 2.10 | - 2.04 | Continue to hold | | 516560 | Pension ETF | 1.33 | - 1.25 | Remove | | 588700 | Science and Innovation Pharmaceutical ETF (Harvest) | 3.16 | - 5.10 | Remove | | | ETF Portfolio Average Return | | - 0.76 | | | 510300 | CSI 300 ETF | 4277.20 | 0.82 | | | | ETF Portfolio Excess Return | | - 1.58 | | [11]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline in the morning session, with major indices showing varying degrees of losses, while certain sectors such as consumer goods and chemicals performed well [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.59%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.13% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 14,544 billion yuan, an increase of 1,883 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Over 2,900 stocks in the market showed gains [1] Sector Performance - Leading sectors included dairy, duty-free shops, liquor, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, silicon energy, and influenza-related stocks [1] - Underperforming sectors included AI hardware, semiconductor stocks, and computing hardware related to CPO and copper cables [1] ETF Performance - The consumer goods sector saw strong gains, with the tourism sector leading; the Fortune Fund Tourism ETF and the Huaxia Fund Tourism ETF rose by 5.19% and 4.74%, respectively [1] - Liquor stocks rebounded, with the Penghua Fund Liquor ETF and the Food and Beverage ETF increasing by 3.29% and 2.83% [1] - The chemical sector continued its upward trend, with the Penghua Fund Chemical ETF rising by 2.66% [1] - The AI hardware sector led the declines, with the Communication ETF and 5G Communication ETF both falling by 4% [1] - The consumer electronics sector also declined, with the Consumer Electronics ETF dropping by 3% [1] - The semiconductor sector faced losses, with the Sci-Tech Chip Design ETF decreasing by 3% [1]