Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has issued a total of USD 3.08 billion in investment quotas to qualified domestic institutional investors (QDII) [4] - As of the end of June, the total scale of the bank wealth management market reached CNY 31.22 trillion, an increase of 5.22% compared to the beginning of the year [5] - The current net value-based wealth management scale has maintained above CNY 31 trillion, with little change from May, alleviating concerns about potential scale shrinkage [5] Innovation in the Industry - China Merchants Bank Wealth Management has launched a floating management fee model for its wealth management products, significantly reducing the fixed management fee to 0.25% per year [6] - ICBC Wealth Management participated in the cornerstone investment for the IPO of IFBH in Hong Kong, securing approximately USD 4 million in investment [6] - China Everbright Bank Wealth Management successfully donated all excess returns from its first charitable wealth management product to a public welfare foundation [7] Yield Performance - For the week of June 30 to July 6, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.48%, up 5 basis points, while money market funds saw a decline to 1.27%, down 5 basis points [8] - The annualized yields of pure fixed income and fixed income plus products have rebounded to varying degrees, influenced by a loosening of the funding environment and the ongoing stock-bond dynamics [10] - The credit spread has continued to narrow, remaining at historical low levels since September 2024, indicating limited value for credit products [10][15] Market Trends - The break-even rate for bank wealth management products rose to 0.70%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points, while the credit spread continued to narrow [10][15] - The ongoing tightening of liquidity and the low interest rate environment have led wealth management companies to lower their performance benchmarks, indicating potential pressure on product yields in the medium to long term [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows mixed signals with some indicators stable and others facing challenges. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly in May, while PPI continued to decline, and industrial enterprise profits were under pressure. Fiscal policy is expected to play a more active role in the second half of the year, and the bond market is generally optimistic in July. The stock market presents structural opportunities, especially in certain sectors like innovation drugs and AI - related areas [2][14][22][33] - Global trade is affected by the US "equivalent tariff" policy, which has drawn strong opposition from China. International geopolitical events also impact commodity markets, such as the situation in the Middle East affecting the oil market, and Canada's digital service tax on US tech companies causing trade frictions [3][15] - The gold market has long - term upward potential but is subject to significant short - term volatility due to Trump's unpredictable policies. The copper market has seen shortages outside the US due to import investigations, and the lithium market continues its downward trend [5][6] Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q1 2025 grew at a 5.4% year - on - year rate, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April, while the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from April. Social financing scale, M0, M1, M2, and other monetary indicators showed different trends, and industrial enterprise profits in January - May decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [1] - The trade balance in May showed exports growing by 4.8% year - on - year and imports declining by 3.4% year - on - year. The CPI was - 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 3.3% year - on - year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China will release June PMI data on June 30. The fiscal policy is expected to accelerate the implementation of existing policies in the second half of the year, and incremental policies may be introduced. The US "equivalent tariff" policy has been strongly opposed by China, and domestic refined oil prices may rise on July 1 [2][3] - The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the core PCE price index, rose 2.7% year - on - year in May, slightly exceeding market expectations. Personal consumption and income declined, and the Fed may cut interest rates twice this year, with the first cut possibly in September [4] Metals - In May, the upstream physical gold demand weakened seasonally, and the gold出库 volume of the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased by 35% month - on - month. Gold prices have been oscillating at a high level recently, and there is long - term upward potential. The copper market outside the US is facing shortages, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate has fallen below 60,000 yuan/ton [5][6] Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Canada imposed a 50% tariff on steel imports from non - free - trade - agreement countries. The iron ore market may face negative feedback in the future due to factors such as the end of export rush and unstable domestic demand [8] Energy and Chemicals - China's first national - level continental shale oil demonstration area in Xinjiang reached a record high daily output. The Haifa refinery in Israel has partially resumed production. The ICE Brent crude oil speculators reduced their net long positions, and OPEC+ may discuss increasing production in July [10] Agricultural Products - China decided to conditionally resume the import of aquatic products from some regions of Japan. Argentine exporters have declared 6.1 million metric tons of soybeans and their derivatives for external sales in June [11] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On June 27, the central bank conducted 525.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 364.7 billion yuan. This week, 2.0275 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase will mature [13] Key News - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested strengthening policy regulation. The fiscal policy will focus on implementing existing policies and may introduce incremental policies. The Sino - US trade teams are in close communication, and China will approve eligible export applications, while the US will cancel some restrictive measures [14] - From January to May, the total profit of national industrial enterprises above the designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. The total revenue of state - owned enterprises was 32.81 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%, and the total profit was 1.65 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8% [16] - The bond market is generally positive, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declining. The exchange - traded bond market had some bonds rising and falling, and the convertible bond market also showed different trends. Overseas, European and US bond yields generally increased [22][24][25] Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1690 on June 30, down 6.0 basis points from the previous trading day. The US dollar index fell 0.04% in New York trading [26] Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB exchange rate may maintain a low - volatility state in the short term. The current active equity products are over - allocated in stocks and under - allocated in bonds, and future products may increase the allocation of equity assets with similar bond attributes [27] - Huatai Macro points out that the impact of tariffs on industrial enterprise profits is emerging, and there is still great uncertainty in tariff policies after July 9. Guosheng Fixed Income suggests maintaining a long - term position in bonds and seizing the bull market after the end of the quarter [28][29] Today's Reminders - On June 30, 241 bonds will be listed, 38 bonds will be issued, 67 bonds will make payments, and 617 bonds will pay principal and interest [30] 4. Stock Market Key News - Starting from June 30, the share transaction fee in the Hong Kong market will be adjusted from 0.002% to 0.0042% of the transaction amount, which is beneficial for reducing small - scale transaction costs and optimizing institutional investors' trading strategies [31] - In the first half of this year, hot topics such as innovative drugs, humanoid robots, and the Beijing Stock Exchange drove the market. The performance of funds investing in innovative drugs was outstanding, while AI - themed funds had poor performance. The Hong Kong stock market's financing was booming, and the A - share market showed an upward trend last week [32][33] - Some institutions believe that the stock market will present structural opportunities during the interim report season. AI and military industries are expected to be the focus of structural opportunities in the third quarter, and new consumption and innovative drugs may rebound after June 30 [33][34]