天风证券研报指出，贵州茅台25H1业绩符合预期，全年目标实现可期。分产品看，2025Q2茅台酒/系列 酒收入320.32/67.40亿元（同比+10.99%/-6.53%），茅台酒收入占比同比+2.61pct至82.62%。该行认为茅 台酒收入占比提升或主要系25H1公司加大了1L装产品投放，此外，新发布的5款"走进系列"、"世博会 纪念酒"等预计亦贡献增量。2025Q2国外市场营收同比+27.64%至17.74亿元，占比提升0.72pct至 4.58%，海外市场增长突出或与2025年以来公司全面加大国际市场开拓力度有关。维持"买入"评级。 ...

茅台酒占比提升，直销渠道贡献增长。 2025Q2 公司毛利率/ 归母净利率分别为90.42%/47.84% （ 同比-0.26/-0.92pct ）， 销售/ 管理费用率分别 为4.45%/4.60% （ 同比+0.46/-0.38pct），销售费用率小幅提升或主要系公司加大国际市场开拓&强化消 费者培育。经营性现金流量净额同比-84.29%至43.10 亿元（集团财务公司吸收存款减少&法定准备金增 加）。合同负债同比/环比-44.86/-32.81 亿元至55.07 亿元；25Q2 销售收现389.43 亿（同比-4.64%）。 考虑当前行业仍处于调整期，我们略下调盈利预测，预计25-27 年公司营业收入同比+9%/+7%/+7%至 1903/2037/2175 亿元（前值为1903/2059/2224亿元），归母净利润同比+9%/+7%/+6%至943/1006/1070 亿 元（前值为943/1022/1108 亿元），对应PE 分别为19X/18X/17X，维持"买入"评级。 分产品看， 2025Q2 茅台酒/ 系列酒收入320.32/67.40 亿元（ 同比+10.99%/-6.53%），茅台酒收入 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the terminal price of Feitian Moutai have attracted significant attention, with online prices showing a decline while offline prices remain stable above 2100 yuan per bottle, indicating a strong demand in various consumption scenarios [2][3][4]. Price Trends - The current market price for Feitian Moutai is reported to be around 2100 to 2200 yuan per bottle, with some online platforms offering promotional subsidies that affect the displayed prices but not the actual market value [3][4]. - Offline channels continue to dominate the distribution of Feitian Moutai, with prices remaining stable despite fluctuations in online sales [3][4]. Consumption Patterns - There is an increasing trend in the consumption of Feitian Moutai at banquets and social gatherings, with reports indicating that a significant portion of sales is being opened for immediate consumption [6][7]. - The primary consumers of Feitian Moutai include private business owners and investors, who often purchase the product for both business and personal enjoyment [6][7]. Market Strategy - Moutai's strategy focuses on meeting consumer needs through a human-centered approach, which is essential for navigating the current market challenges [2][8]. - The company is adapting to the changing market by enhancing its product offerings and focusing on consumer experiences, aiming to provide a comprehensive product solution that aligns with consumer demands [9][10]. Industry Context - The Chinese liquor industry is currently experiencing a period of adjustment, with overall growth slowing down; however, Moutai remains confident in its brand value and product quality [8]. - Historical patterns show that Moutai has successfully navigated previous industry downturns by implementing proactive strategies, which it continues to do in the current cycle [8].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 08 年 月 日 食品饮料 周观点：啤酒饮料正当旺季，关注大众品上新催化 投资建议：1、白酒：淡季筑底、中长期价值凸显，建议关注" 优势龙头、红 利延续、强势复苏"三条主线：1）优势龙头，头部酒企份额持续提升：贵州 茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒、古井贡酒；2）红利延续，高确定性区域酒：今世 缘（江苏格局红利）、迎驾贡酒（洞藏大单品红利）等；3）受益复苏与风险偏 好提升，弹性标的：泸州老窖、水井坊、舍得酒业、老白干酒、港股珍酒李渡、 酒鬼酒等。2、大众品：燕京 U8 改革深化，农夫山泉推新" 茶 "，山姆供应 链上新加速，建议寻找高成长与强复苏两条主线：1）高景气或高成长逻辑： 盐津铺子、东鹏饮料、燕京啤酒、珠江啤酒、三只松鼠、百润股份、有友食品、 好想你等，港股农夫山泉、华润饮料、卫龙美味等。2）政策受益或复苏改善： 青岛啤酒、海天味业、新乳业、伊利股份、重庆啤酒、安琪酵母、仙乐健康、 安井食品、立高食品等，港股 H&H 国际控股等。 白酒：茅台发布 走进系列"，淡季进一步筑底。近期在时隔 6 年后，贵州茅 台上新走进系列新品，并于 6 月 5 ...