蓝思科技 20260306 摘要 消费电子业务为压舱石，2025 年 iPhone 17 Air 导入高价值 3D 玻璃 及 Pro 系列铝合金中框，单机价值量与毛利率双升，预计 2025-2027 年归母净利持续上行。 苹果 AI 落地有望驱动 11-12 亿部存量机型换机，催化窗口看点为 2026 年 5-6 月 Siri 升级及 2027 年 iPhone 18 完整 AI 能力释放。 折叠屏业务预计 2026 年秋季随苹果入局重回高增长，公司供应 UTG 玻 璃、PET 膜等高价值部件，整机 ASP 价值量较直板机提升数倍。 汽车业务 2025 年下半年量产超薄夹胶玻璃，具备减重、隔热、高强度 优势，预计 2026 年贡献小几十亿收入增量并抬升板块盈利水平。 机器人业务已导入海外 T 客户供应链，2026 年核心部件与整机出货量 有望翻倍；AI 服务器业务依托收购原始科技切入英伟达链，拓展液冷与 机柜业务。 商业航天聚焦航天级 UTG 及 TGV 玻璃基板，已与国内外头部卫星客户 深度合作；公司 2026 年 PE 约 26 倍，低于行业均值，首次覆盖给予买 入评级。 Q&A 如何概括蓝思科技的发展阶 ...

——蓝思科技深度 消费电子 | | | AI 硬件+商业航天，平台型龙头开启新征程 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 Email：yangxu01@zts.com.cn 分析师：洪嘉琳 执业证书编号：S0740524090003 Email：hongjl@zts.com.cn | 总股本(百万股) | 5,279 | | --- | --- | | 流通股本(百万股) | 4,969 | | 市价(元) | 32.51 | | 市值(百万元) | 171,612 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 161,548 | 蓝思科技（300433.SZ） 证券研究报告/公司深度报告 2026 年 03 月 03 日 | 评级： | 买入（首次） | 公司盈利预测及估值 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 指标 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of precision manufacturing solutions across the entire smart terminal supply chain, leveraging its strong technological foundation in various materials to achieve vertical integration from raw material production to final assembly [6][11]. - The financial performance shows steady growth in revenue and profit, with significant contributions from both traditional and emerging business segments, indicating a robust operational synergy [6][29]. - The company is strategically positioned to benefit from the AI hardware upgrade and the wave of automotive intelligence, with a focus on continuous R&D investment and global capacity expansion [6][7]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established a solid foundation with high-quality customer resources and significant vertical integration capabilities, partnering with major global brands across various sectors [12][21]. - The business structure is diversified, covering multiple high-end consumer electronics and emerging markets, including smart automotive and AI technologies [21][25]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 544.91 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,395.99 billion yuan by 2027, with net profit increasing from 30.21 billion yuan to 83.81 billion yuan in the same period [4][6]. - The company has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.34% in revenue and 21.67% in net profit from 2022 to 2024 [29]. Consumer Electronics - The company maintains a strong position in the consumer electronics sector, capitalizing on AI upgrades and innovations in foldable screens, which are expected to drive structural growth [48][49]. - The revenue from smartphones and computers is projected to increase significantly, with a notable rise in average selling prices due to product upgrades and market demand [30][34]. Smart Automotive - The company is expanding into the automotive electronics sector, enhancing its product value and business boundaries, with innovative products like ultra-thin laminated glass and smart cockpit components [6][33]. - Revenue from the automotive segment is expected to grow rapidly as the penetration of electric vehicles increases and new product developments continue [7][33]. Emerging Fields - The company is proactively entering emerging markets such as humanoid robotics and AI data centers, establishing a comprehensive vertical integration platform for these technologies [7][28]. - Collaborations with leading companies in various sectors are expected to foster innovation and accelerate growth in these new areas [6][7].