新华财经北京6月10日电欧洲交易时段，美元指数延续近期窄幅震荡格局。非美货币中，英镑受疲软就业 数据拖累表现垫底，其余G10货币波动有限，市场交投清淡。 市场预期美国5月整体CPI同比升至2.5%，核心CPI达2.9%，若数据超预期，或将削弱市场对9月前降息的押 注。CME利率期货显示，美联储9月议息会议前按兵不动的概率高达80%。 短期来看，美元指数仍受制于两大因素： 事件驱动：CPI数据可能形成"靴子落地"效应，若通胀超预期或谈判破裂，美元或获阶段性支撑。 政策预期：美联储6月会议大概率维持利率不变，但若CPI数据温和，市场可能提前交易9月降息预期，压 制美元反弹动能。 主要货币在不同时间段都呈现负值变化，表明整体处于贬值趋势。1天时间段的波动性最大，多个货币出 现较大跌幅。短期（15分钟至4小时）的波动相对平缓。4小时和1小时的数据显示高度一致性 英镑 在1天时间段的跌幅最大（-0.34%)，其次是美元兑加元在1天时间段的跌幅（-0.06%) 6月10日，英国债务管理局（DMO）宣布通过辛迪加方式成功出售55亿英镑（约合74亿美元）的新型 1.75%通胀挂钩国债，到期日为2038年9月。此次国债发行吸引 ...

Domestic Economy - The U.S. economy is currently influenced by policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, which have raised inflation expectations and created concerns about economic growth [1][18] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in March 2025, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 228,000, indicating a balanced labor market despite ongoing uncertainties [14][19] - Consumer confidence has declined following tariff implementations, with retail sales (excluding vehicles) stabilizing and vehicle sales increasing due to lower interest rates [24][26] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Inflation has moderated, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rising by 2.8% year-over-year as of March 2025, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreasing to 2.4% [2][26] - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady in January and March 2025, with market expectations for at least three rate cuts by the end of the year [12][14] Financial Markets - The stock market faced pressure, with the S&P 500 index declining by 4.3% in Q1 2025, particularly affecting the technology and biotech sectors due to monetary policy uncertainties [2][17] - In contrast, the bond market performed well, with investment-grade (IG) and high-yield (HY) bonds delivering strong returns, driven by declining interest rates and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2][14] International Economic and Policy Linkages - The U.S. dollar exhibited volatility, initially declining due to tariff uncertainties and concerns about economic growth, with investors reassessing risks associated with U.S. policy [3][38] - Global monetary policy remains divergent, with expectations of rate cuts in the U.S. while other regions may follow suit, impacting cross-border capital flows [3][6] Key Sector Outlook - The outlook for economic growth remains uncertain, heavily influenced by the actual impact of tariff policies and the pace of Federal Reserve actions [3][29] - The housing market showed volatility, with a decrease in existing home supply leading to fewer transactions in early 2025, although median home prices continued to rise [29][31] - Business sentiment improved in Q1 2025, with strong manufacturing data in January and February, although a dip was noted in March [32][34]