Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The expected weakening of steel exports puts pressure on iron ore prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 753.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (-0.13%). The position was 532,861 hands, a decrease of 9,866 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: Imported ore prices (such as 65% Carajás fines, 61.5% PB fines, 61% Jimbara fines, 56.5% Super Special fines) and domestic ore prices (such as 66% Hanxing ore, 65% Laiwu ore) showed different degrees of decline or remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of different varieties and contracts showed various changes, such as the basis of I2605 against Super Special fines decreased by 2.3 yuan/ton, and the spread between I2605 and I2609 decreased by 0.5 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, effective from February 26, 2026 [1] - Some steel enterprises in North China received a notice of temporary independent emission reduction during the Two Sessions in 2026, with a requirement to reduce blast furnace load by at least 30% from March 4 to March 11 [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [2]

Report Title - Iron ore: Steel mills' inventory replenishment is nearing the end, and ore prices are oscillating downward [1] Report's Core View - Steel mills' inventory replenishment of iron ore is approaching the end, leading to an oscillating decline in ore prices [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 768.5 yuan/ton, down 13.0 yuan/ton or 1.66%. The yesterday's position was 525,113 hands, with an increase of 9,456 hands [2] - **Spot Price**: Imported ores such as Carajás fines (65%), PB (61.5%), Jimbobara (61%), and Super Special (56.5%) all saw price drops, while domestic ores like Hanxing (66%) and Laiwu (65%) remained unchanged [2] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of I2605 against Super Special remained unchanged at 92.4 yuan/ton, while the basis against Jimbobara increased by 1.1 yuan/ton to 72.1 yuan/ton. Spreads such as I2605 - I2609 and I2609 - I2701 changed slightly [2] Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [2] - Many real - estate enterprises are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate enterprises need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in their headquarters cities regularly [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [3]

黑色板块研发报告 铁矿石专题报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 2025 年四季度全球四大矿山产销梳理 第一部分 前言概要 银河期货 第 1 页 共 10 页 铁矿石专题报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 黑色板块研发报告 第二部分 四季度全球铁矿石产销梳理 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 2020/06 2020/10 2021/02 2021/06 2021/10 2022/02 2022/06 2022/10 2023/02 2023/06 2023/10 2024/02 2024/06 2024/10 2025/02 2025/06 2025/10 VALE产量 万吨 VALE销量 万吨 产量同比 % 销量同比 % 图 1：VALE 产销统计 图 2：VALE 分品种销量 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 2020/06 2020/10 2021/02 2021/06 2021/10 2022/02 2022/06 ...