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“反内卷”政策强度不断升级,有望成为持续投资主线| 券商晨会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-25 01:17
Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy is intensifying and is expected to become a sustained investment theme, requiring nationwide unified market construction and optimization of performance assessment mechanisms for high-quality capacity export by Chinese enterprises [1] - Currently, the implementation of related policies is not yet comprehensive, and the market remains in a phase of trading expectations, with low-cycle manufacturing varieties likely to become the main trading focus [1] - A quantitative indicator system has been developed to score and rank cyclical manufacturing sectors based on their "involution" degree and potential for reversal, highlighting industries with high "involution" and significant reversal potential as worthy of attention [1] Group 2 - The cobalt price is expected to rise due to a significant decrease in imports, with June's wet-process cobalt intermediate product imports dropping by 61.63% month-on-month and 43.14% year-on-year, leading to a cumulative import decline of 11.10% [2] - The extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo is anticipated to further reduce inventory levels, with expectations of continued declines in July and a potential drop in smelting enterprise inventories by August and September [2] - The market is expected to transition to a state of low raw material inventory, which may significantly support prices, presenting investment opportunities in the rising cobalt market [2] Group 3 - The soft drink industry is projected to maintain cost advantages through 2025, with leading companies expected to have relatively controllable profit fluctuations [3] - New trends in the industry indicate stronger growth potential in segments such as sugar-free tea, health water, sparkling water, carbonated tea, and energy drinks, leading to recommendations for strong soft drink leaders [3]