Group 1: Copper Market - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased, which is likely to support copper prices [1][2] - This week, the price changes for copper were -0.05% for LME copper, -0.47% for SHFE copper, and -0.62% for COMEX copper, indicating a period of fluctuation [2] - Domestic copper inventory has increased, with LME copper at 156,000 tons, COMEX copper at 271,000 short tons, and SHFE copper at 82,000 tons, showing a month-on-month change of +0.11%, +1.60%, and -5.4% respectively [2] - The downstream demand for copper has rebounded, with the copper rod operating rate at 71.8%, up by 1.19 percentage points [2] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend due to rising inventory levels [3] - The price of alumina has decreased by 0.15% to 3,225 CNY/ton, while the main futures contract for alumina fell by 0.41% to 3,192 CNY/ton [3] - The operating capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina reached 91.57 million tons per year, with a weekly operating rate down by 0.2 percentage points to 83.0% due to routine maintenance [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices fell by 0.34% to 20,700 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of 4,405 CNY/ton, up by 1.84% [3] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium salt prices are expected to rise due to seasonal demand, with carbonate lithium prices increasing by 1.45% to 84,000 CNY/ton [4][5] - The production of carbonate lithium this week was 19,000 tons, a decrease of 4.2% month-on-month [5] - SMM weekly inventory for carbonate lithium is at 142,000 tons, down by 0.5% [5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The import volume of cobalt raw materials has continued to decline, which may accelerate the digestion of raw material inventory, leading to potential price increases [5] - Domestic cobalt prices fell by 0.38% to 261,000 CNY/ton [5] - The extension of the cobalt export ban by the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to accelerate the reduction of cobalt raw material inventory, potentially leading to a tight supply situation in Q4 [5]

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy is intensifying and is expected to become a sustained investment theme, requiring nationwide unified market construction and optimization of performance assessment mechanisms for high-quality capacity export by Chinese enterprises [1] - Currently, the implementation of related policies is not yet comprehensive, and the market remains in a phase of trading expectations, with low-cycle manufacturing varieties likely to become the main trading focus [1] - A quantitative indicator system has been developed to score and rank cyclical manufacturing sectors based on their "involution" degree and potential for reversal, highlighting industries with high "involution" and significant reversal potential as worthy of attention [1] Group 2 - The cobalt price is expected to rise due to a significant decrease in imports, with June's wet-process cobalt intermediate product imports dropping by 61.63% month-on-month and 43.14% year-on-year, leading to a cumulative import decline of 11.10% [2] - The extension of the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo is anticipated to further reduce inventory levels, with expectations of continued declines in July and a potential drop in smelting enterprise inventories by August and September [2] - The market is expected to transition to a state of low raw material inventory, which may significantly support prices, presenting investment opportunities in the rising cobalt market [2] Group 3 - The soft drink industry is projected to maintain cost advantages through 2025, with leading companies expected to have relatively controllable profit fluctuations [3] - New trends in the industry indicate stronger growth potential in segments such as sugar-free tea, health water, sparkling water, carbonated tea, and energy drinks, leading to recommendations for strong soft drink leaders [3]