国投证券发布研报称，25年下半年以来，国家着重强调消费在经济增长中的重要地位，26年消费基本面 有望筑底企稳，食品饮料行业正迎来重要的布局时点。具体来看，酒企报表大幅度出清，供需矛盾缓 解，股价有望领先基本面修复；乳制品行业迎来原奶周期反转关键窗口；软饮料领域功能饮料与包装水 格局变化带来新机遇；零食板块则延续渠道与品类双轮驱动。行业在政策支持与基本面筑底背景下， 2026年有望实现业绩与估值的双重修复。 国投证券主要观点如下： 白酒：周期底部渐明，关注左侧布局机会 乳制品：布局26年原奶周期反转，关注乳制品产业链报表利润弹性 当前板块处于低预期、低持仓、低估值状态，近两个季度白酒报表快速出清，行业供需矛盾缓解，政商 务消费已经大幅下降，居民消费有望逐步复苏，行业基本面持续低于预期的尾部风险不大。复盘历史， 该行认为经济周期和饮酒政策带来的波动是暂时的，白酒商业模式仍然优异，一旦经济预期有所好转， 板块估值有望快速修复。展望2026年，"反内卷"等政策下通胀有望温和回升，有利于白酒行业逐步企稳 复苏，建议加大对白酒板块关注，标的上以茅五泸汾为主。 啤酒：中高端大单品势能延续，成本维持低位 啤酒板块26年仍将以 ...

2025 年 11 月 26 日 食品饮料 食饮年度投资策略：稳基调黎明将至， 抱主线向阳而生 白酒：周期底部渐明，关注左侧布局机会 当前板块处于低预期、低持仓、低估值状态，近两个季度白酒报表快 速出清，行业供需矛盾缓解，政商务消费已经大幅下降，居民消费有 望逐步复苏，行业基本面持续低于预期的尾部风险不大。复盘历史， 我们有理由相信经济周期和饮酒政策带来的波动是暂时的，白酒商业 模式仍然优异，一旦经济预期有所好转，板块估值有望快速修复。展 望 2026 年，"反内卷"等政策下通胀有望温和回升，有利于白酒行业 逐步企稳复苏，建议加大对白酒板块关注，标的上以茅五泸汾为主。 啤酒：中高端大单品势能延续，成本维持低位 啤酒板块 26 年仍将以结构性行情为主，其中具备大单品成长逻辑的 啤酒公司、受益竞争对手调整的公司相对更加具备投资机会。整体啤 酒板块公司的盈利水平仍处于向上提升趋势中，主要驱动力来源于 8-10 元价格带产品的扩容以及各家精益管理后费效比的提升。 乳制品：布局 26 年原奶周期反转，关注乳制品产业链报表利润 弹性 从需求端看，25 年乳制品品类表现分化，常温液奶拖累乳制品整体 需求，低温鲜奶、奶酪等品 ...

研究报告 Research Report 25 Nov 2025 中国必需消费 China (Overseas) Staples 中国必选消费品 11 月成本报告：蔬菜和瓦楞纸显著涨价 November CGCI: Vegetables and Corrugated Paper Saw a Significant Price Surge | | | | [Table_Info] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 百威亚太 | Neutral | 7.90 | 21 | 20 | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform 36.00 | | 15 | 14 | | 海底捞 | Outperform 18.22 | | 15 | 14 | | 康师傅 | Outperform 17.74 | | 16 | 14 | | 中国飞鹤 | Outperform 7.00 | | 9 | 8 | | 优然牧业 | Outperform 5.50 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "Market Perform" investment rating, indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [60]. Core Insights - Since 2021, the revenue growth rate of the food and beverage industry has shown a stepwise decline, with a further slowdown in growth recorded in the first three quarters of 2025. The industry recorded a revenue growth of 0.18% in the first three quarters of 2025, a decline of 2.29 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [9][10]. - The industry has experienced a continuous increase in gross profit margins in recent years, peaking in 2024. However, since 2025, the gross profit margin has started to decline due to the fading cost advantages. The operating cost growth has outpaced revenue growth, leading to increased cost pressures [8][26]. - The report highlights a significant change in the expense structure of listed companies, with a reduction in sales expenses and a focus on internal control management. The research indicates that while sales expenses have decreased, R&D investments have remained stable [42][50]. - Profitability indicators for the food and beverage sector have been on the rise since 2021 but have started to decline in 2025 due to slowing revenue growth and the diminishing cost advantages. The net profit margin and return on equity have both decreased in the first three quarters of 2025 compared to the previous year [51][54]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - The food and beverage industry has seen a stepwise decline in revenue growth since 2021, with a recorded growth of 0.18% in the first three quarters of 2025, down 2.29 percentage points from the first half of the year [9][10]. - Sub-sectors such as snacks and soft drinks have shown strong growth, while others like prepared foods and white spirits have experienced revenue declines [10][19]. Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin of the food and beverage sector peaked in 2024 but has started to decline in 2025 due to rising costs outpacing revenue growth. The gross profit margin was recorded at 49.53% in the first three quarters of 2025, down 1.39 percentage points year-on-year [26][54]. - The report indicates that the cost growth has exceeded revenue growth by 2.83 percentage points in the first three quarters of 2025, leading to increased cost pressures [27][31]. Expense Management - There has been a notable shift in the expense management of listed companies, with a reduction in sales expenses and a focus on internal control, resulting in a significant decrease in management expense ratios [42][46]. - The sales expense ratio has decreased from 12.35% in 2021 to 11.07% in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a more cautious approach to market investments [42][44]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in sub-sectors such as soft drinks, health products, baking, yeast, compound seasonings, and snacks, which are expected to perform well despite the overall industry slowdown [57].

Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in various sectors, particularly in the semiconductor, healthcare, and renewable energy industries, indicating a favorable investment environment for long-term strategies [4][21][24]. Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13,216.03, down 1.93% [3]. - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext Index are 16.52 and 50.18, respectively, suggesting a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [7][9]. Industry Analysis - The semiconductor industry showed a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 6.07% in Q3 2025, with a notable profit growth of 48.93% [27]. - The healthcare and renewable energy sectors are experiencing strong performance, with specific focus on battery, medical, and photovoltaic equipment industries [8][11][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy focusing on cyclical and technology growth sectors, particularly in batteries, healthcare, and renewable energy [10][12][22]. - The mechanical industry is also highlighted for its steady growth, with a revenue increase of 5.98% year-on-year in Q3 2025, indicating a positive outlook for related investments [21]. Key Data Updates - The report notes that the North American cloud service providers have increased capital expenditures significantly, with a total of $96.4 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a 67% year-on-year growth [30][31]. - The domestic semiconductor market is expected to see further price increases, particularly in DRAM and NAND Flash products, driven by rising demand from data centers and AI applications [29][28]. Sector-Specific Insights - The sports nutrition market in China is projected to grow at an annual rate of 11.56%, driven by an increasing number of fitness enthusiasts [18][19]. - The mechanical sector is witnessing a recovery, with traditional cyclical industries showing significant profit growth, while emerging sectors are beginning to show signs of improvement [21][22]. Conclusion - Overall, the report indicates a positive trend across multiple sectors, with specific recommendations for investors to focus on cyclical recovery and technology-driven growth opportunities, particularly in the semiconductor and renewable energy industries [4][21][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 over the next six months [58]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector recorded a decline in October 2025, with a component index drop of -0.58%. The performance of the liquor segment significantly dragged down the overall results, while sectors like prepared foods, health products, and baking showed positive growth [6][7]. - From January to October 2025, the food and beverage sector's cumulative performance was -0.97%, underperforming the market benchmark index, with significant contributions from the weak performance of major segments like liquor and beer [11][14]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a relative low point historically, with a current valuation of 20.06 times earnings, down 6.27% from the previous month. This is the lowest in ten years, with liquor valuations also below the sector average [17]. - In October 2025, 60.16% of individual stocks in the sector saw price increases, indicating that individual stock performance was better than the overall sector [23][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance of the Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline in October 2025, with a component index drop of -0.58%. The total trading volume for the sector was 20.352 billion shares, a significant decrease from September [6][7]. - The cumulative performance from January to October 2025 was -0.97%, with the sector ranking last among 31 primary industries [11][14]. 2. Valuation of the Food and Beverage Sector - As of October 31, 2025, the sector's valuation stood at 20.06 times earnings, marking a 6.27% decrease from the previous month. This valuation is lower than 20 other industries, placing it in the lower tier of industry valuations [17]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - In October 2025, 60.16% of individual stocks in the food and beverage sector increased in value, with notable performances from composite seasoning, dairy, health products, and prepared foods [23][29]. - Specific stocks that performed well included Hai Xin Foods (+12.65%), Tang Chen Bei Jian (+8.85%), and others across various sub-sectors [24][25]. 4. Industry Output and Price Factors - The food and beverage manufacturing sector saw a fixed asset investment increase of 22.9% year-on-year in 2024, with a continued high growth level into 2025 [31]. - Production trends showed a decline in liquor and wine output, while fresh meat and edible oil production maintained growth [35][37]. 5. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in soft drinks, health products, baking, yeast, composite seasoning, and snacks for November 2025 [54][55]. - The suggested stock portfolio includes companies like Bao Li Foods, Li Gao Foods, and Xian Le Health, all rated for potential growth [56].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on growth-oriented sectors such as beverages, snacks, and food ingredients, while indicating a need to monitor the white liquor sector for potential recovery points [4]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in Q3 2025, with revenues down 6% year-on-year and net profits down 13%. The white liquor segment showed significant deceleration, while consumer staples exhibited structural growth [2][6]. - The report highlights that the white liquor sector is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with a notable decline in both revenue and profit margins. However, there are signs of potential recovery as companies innovate and adapt to market conditions [12][15]. Summary by Sections Food and Beverage Sector Overview - In Q3 2025, the food and beverage sector reported revenues of 243 billion, a 6% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 44.6 billion, down 13%. The gross margin fell by 2.4 percentage points to 46.5% [6][9]. - The white liquor segment saw a revenue decline of 18% and a net profit drop of 22% in Q3 2025, indicating a significant downturn in performance [6][12]. White Liquor Segment - The white liquor sector is in a deep adjustment phase, with companies actively reducing inventory levels. The report notes that the adjustment may continue for several quarters, but the capital market might have already priced in the downturn [15][48]. - Major brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are experiencing substantial revenue declines, with some companies reporting losses for the first time in years [13][16]. Consumer Staples and Other Segments - The report indicates that consumer staples are showing structural growth, with segments like soft drinks and snacks performing well. For instance, soft drinks reported a 15% revenue increase year-on-year in Q3 2025 [7][12]. - The beer segment showed resilience with a 1% revenue increase and an 11% profit increase, despite a weakening demand environment [7][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on growth stocks in beverages, snacks, and food ingredients while keeping an eye on the white liquor sector for signs of recovery. Specific companies to watch include Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and Kweichow Moutai [4][6].

Core Insights - The United States is set to double tariffs on imported steel and aluminium to 50% in June 2025, impacting the global packaging industry significantly [1] Rising Metal Costs - The increase in tariffs is expected to drive up consumer prices, as seen in previous tariff implementations where prices for canned goods rose noticeably [2] - A midsized US can producer reported a nearly 33% increase in aluminium sheet costs since the new duties took effect, leading to anticipated price hikes for customers in early 2026 [3] Supply Chain Adjustments - Packaging firms are exploring alternatives to imported metals, such as flexible pouches made from recycled materials, particularly for sauces and pet food [4] - Some companies are shifting towards nearshore production, with North American suppliers investing in local steel rolling mills to reduce reliance on overseas inputs [5] Mergers and Acquisitions - The uncertain tariff landscape has accelerated mergers and acquisitions in the packaging sector, with larger companies acquiring smaller firms to enhance supply chains and sustainable product offerings [6] - Private equity investors are focusing on companies with strong automation and sustainability practices, driven by new regulations like Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) in the UK [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector has seen a decline in fund allocation, with the configuration ratio dropping to a new low of 6.4% in Q3 2025 from 8.0% in Q2 2025, indicating a significant reduction in investment interest [5][14] - The white wine sector is expected to reach a performance and valuation bottom, with recommendations to strategically invest in this area due to its relatively low valuation and stable chip structure [8][40] - The beverage and snack sectors are performing well, driven by their essential consumption characteristics and resilience against external market fluctuations [41][43] Summary by Sections Fund Allocation Trends - In Q3 2025, the allocation ratio for food and beverage in all market funds decreased to 6.4%, down 1.6 percentage points from Q2 2025, marking the lowest level since 2020 [5][14] - The allocation ratio for active equity funds in food and beverage fell to 4.1% in Q3 2025, down from 5.6% in Q2 2025, reflecting a continued significant reduction in investment [5][14] White Wine Sector Insights - The proportion of active equity funds heavily invested in white wine decreased from 4.0% in Q2 2025 to 3.2% in Q3 2025, indicating a trend of reduced allocation across both active and passive funds [6][25] - Companies with cleared financial reports, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shede Liquor, are gaining market favor, while others like Wuliangye and Moutai are seeing reduced holdings [6][25] Performance and Market Dynamics - The food and beverage sector's market value increased by 3.7% in Q3 2025, but it underperformed the CSI 300 index by approximately 18.6 percentage points, ranking fifth from the bottom in the overall market [15][21] - The overall market transaction amount for the food and beverage sector fell to 1.65%, down 1.05 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a decline in trading activity [15][21] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to strategically invest in the white wine sector, focusing on stable companies like Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as those undergoing market reforms like Shede Liquor [8][40] - For the broader consumer goods sector, attention should be given to companies that benefit from new channels and product categories, such as Wei Long and Ximai Foods [43]

Capital Dynamics - Keurig Dr Pepper has secured $7 billion in financing from a private equity firm to facilitate its $18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's, aiming to reduce net leverage post-acquisition. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2026, significantly enhancing KDP's acquisition leverage and reshaping the global coffee and beverage competitive landscape [3]. Sale Dynamics - Private equity firms HSG Sequoia China and CPE Yuanfeng are reportedly bidding for a major stake in Burger King's China operations, with the final buyer expected to be announced alongside the company's financial report later this month. If successful, the acquisition could leverage PE capital and supply chain expertise to revitalize Burger King's performance in lower-tier markets [5]. Listing Dynamics - Kidswant announced plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by October 27, 2025. The company is in discussions with intermediaries regarding the issuance and listing, which requires approval from various regulatory bodies. This move aims to advance the company's international strategy and enhance its brand influence in the family service sector [7]. Business Expansion - Meituan's international delivery brand Keeta has launched operations in Abu Dhabi, UAE, providing reliable delivery services and a diverse product selection. This expansion solidifies Meituan's international business presence in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region [10]. Financial Performance - Procter & Gamble reported a 20% increase in net profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, with net sales reaching $22.39 billion, a 3% year-over-year growth. The beauty segment saw a 6% increase in net sales, while the grooming segment grew by 5%. The company anticipates total sales growth of 1% to 5% for the fiscal year [14][16]. - Beiersdorf's sales for the first three quarters of 2025 reached €7.5 billion, with an organic growth of 2.0%. The consumer business segment also grew by 2.0%, driven primarily by the Derma and skin science divisions [18]. Organizational Changes - Amazon announced plans to cut nearly 14,000 jobs as part of an internal restructuring aimed at focusing investments on critical business areas. The company expects to continue hiring in key strategic areas in 2026 [19][21]. - Puma appointed Maria Valdes as Chief Brand Officer, responsible for brand marketing and innovation, as part of a restructuring to enhance overall brand impact [22][24]. - Reebok has established a new European headquarters and appointed Marc Le Roux as the new CEO for Europe, aiming to accelerate retail expansion and strengthen brand culture in the region [26].