食品饮料 分析师：刘冉 登记编码：S0730516010001 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(维持) 食品饮料相对沪深 300 指数表现 -5% 0% 4% 8% 13% 17% 22% 26% 2025.01 2025.05 2025.09 2026.01 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：中原证券 liuran@ccnew.com 021-50586281 生猪价格环比跳涨，白酒供给持续收缩 ——食品饮料行业 2026 年 1 月月报 发布日期：2026 年 01 月 06 日 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共21页 投资要点： 相关报告 《食品饮料行业月报：节气将近，白酒、预制 食品反弹》 2025-12-10 《食品饮料行业年度策略：海日生残夜，江春 入旧年》 2025-11-28 《食品饮料行业分析报告：成本红利消退，收 入加速下行》 2025-11-20 联系人：李智 食品饮料板块大跌 4.05%。其中，白酒、其它酒、啤酒、肉制品和乳制品等传统品类下跌， 零食、软饮料、烘焙、保健品等新兴品类仍保持涨势。 2025 年 12 月 ...

英国赫特福德大学教授布朗称，这项禁令是"朝着正确方向迈出的一步"。她还呼吁政府让健康食品"更 实惠、容易获取且更具吸引力"。英政府官网强调，相关部门正推行健康食品标准，并赋予地方政府相 关权力，如禁止在学校周边开设快餐店或者向16岁以下儿童销售高咖啡因能量饮料，助力培养"有史以 来最健康的一代儿童"。（李国正） 英国卫生与社会保健部称，禁令出台源于日益严峻的儿童健康现状。英国国家医疗服务体系（NHS）的 数据显示，近1/10的学前班儿童患有肥胖症。在英格兰地区，22.1%的小学生存在超重或肥胖问题，小 学毕业时这一比例升至35.8%。肥胖症每年给NHS带来超110亿英镑额外支出，而证据表明，儿童接触 不健康食品广告会直接影响饮食选择，增加肥胖及患相关慢性疾病的风险。英国卫生部门官员道尔顿表 示，禁令可减少儿童对不健康食品的过度接触，"让每个孩子拥有最佳、最健康的人生开端"。她强调， 此举也是推动NHS从"治疗疾病"向"预防疾病"转变的一部分。 为应对儿童肥胖问题，1月5日起，英国垃圾食品广告禁令正式生效。英国全国范围内禁止晚间9时前在 电视上投放高脂、高盐、高糖（HFSS）食品和饮料的广告，网络广告则全天禁止 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 31 Dec 2025 日本必需消费可选消费 Japan Staples Discretionary 日本消费行业 11 月跟踪报告："黑五"刺激消费，免税增长乏力 Black Friday boosted consumption, but duty-free growth remained weak | 闻宏伟 Hongwei Wen | 芮雯 Raven Rui | Qiao Xu | 季屏子 Pingzi Ji | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | hongwei.wen@htisec.com | raven.w.rui@htisec.com | qiao.xu@htisec.com | pz.ji@htisec.com | [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 宏观：央行加息落地，通胀黏性犹存。11 月日本消费者信心指数录得 37.5，较 10 月 35.8 大幅攀升 1.7 点，创 2024 年 4 月以来新高。信心修复呈现全面 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the essential consumer goods sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yili [1]. Core Insights - Downstream demand remains subdued, with modest fluctuations in costs across various consumer goods categories [1][34]. - The cost indices for six monitored consumer goods showed mixed trends, with soft drinks and instant noodles experiencing increases, while condiments, dairy products, frozen foods, and beer saw declines [34]. Cost Index Summary Beer - The spot cost index for beer decreased by 1.05% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 0.88%. Year-to-date, the spot index has declined by 3.84% and the futures index by 7.87% [4][35]. - Glass prices fell by 1.9% month-on-month and 18.0% year-on-year, while aluminum prices showed mixed trends [12][35]. Condiments - The spot cost index for condiments dropped by 0.29% month-on-month, and the futures index fell by 0.47%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 3.95% and the futures index by 9.74% [16][36]. - Soybean prices showed a slight decrease in spot prices but an increase in futures prices [16][36]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index for dairy products decreased by 0.45% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 0.39%. Year-to-date, the spot index has declined by 2.92% and the futures index by 4.19% [19][37]. - Raw milk prices remained stable at 3.03 yuan/kg, with supply pressures emerging due to cash flow issues in dairy farming [19][37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index for instant noodles rose by 0.49% month-on-month, while the futures index fell by 0.51%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.77% and the futures index by 7.05% [23][38]. - Palm oil prices showed a decline, impacting overall costs [23][38]. Frozen Foods - The spot cost index for frozen foods dropped by 0.54% month-on-month, and the futures index fell by 1.13%. Year-to-date, the spot index has decreased by 0.65% and the futures index by 2.42% [27][39]. - Vegetable prices experienced a month-on-month decline but a year-on-year increase, influenced by weather conditions affecting supply [27][39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index for soft drinks increased by 1.06% month-on-month, and the futures index rose by 0.99%. Year-to-date, the spot index has increased by 0.42% while the futures index has decreased by 10.18% [30][40]. - PET chip prices rose month-on-month, contributing to the cost increase in soft drinks [30][40].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [9] Core Viewpoints - The liquor sector is experiencing a phase of "supply optimization and weak demand recovery," with inventory destocking expected to continue in Q4. Short-term price recovery is anticipated due to Moutai's controlled supply, with attention on Spring Festival sales and inventory turnover [2][5] - Demand for mass consumer goods is expected to show marginal recovery, with January anticipated to see a strong start due to delayed Spring Festival stocking [2][5] - The latest recommended companies include Ganhe Weiye, Guoquan, Anqi Yeast, Babi Foods, Ligao Foods, Wancheng Group, Anjii Foods, Kuaijishan, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanghe, and Guizhou Moutai [2][5] Summary by Sections Production Data - In November, the industry production data revealed that meat and soft drinks led the growth, with meat production increasing by 16.3% and soft drinks by 0.4%. Other categories, such as alcoholic beverages, continue to face downward pressure [4][16] - Non-alcoholic categories showed stable production growth, with notable increases in fresh and chilled meat production, driven by declining prices of core items like pork, stimulating demand [20] Market Review - Since the beginning of the year, the Food and Beverage (Yangtze) Index has decreased by 4.22%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300. The market has seen significant differentiation, particularly in Q2 and Q3, due to consumption scene restrictions and a trend towards cost-effective consumption preferences [6][28] - In the past week, the restaurant supply chain sector (including food and condiments) has outperformed, while the liquor sector (including beer and wine) has shown relatively weak performance [6][28] Industry Dynamics - Companies in the soft drink sector are focusing on core categories to enhance competitiveness, such as Yuanqi Forest divesting its dairy business to concentrate on tea and sparkling water. Cross-industry innovations are also being explored, with new products like rice whiskey targeting specific dining scenarios [7][34] - Digital transformation and employee incentives are driving channel changes, with integrated online and offline strategies becoming mainstream. Companies like Luckin Coffee and Three Squirrels are rapidly expanding into high-traffic areas [7][34]

全球啤酒行业正经历从周期性波动到结构性转变的深刻变革 智通财经APP获悉，海通国际发布研报称，全球啤酒行业正经历从周期性波动到结构性转变的深刻变 革，健康意识觉醒与代际消费变迁成为核心驱动因素，酿啤酒与无酒精啤酒快速崛起，持续蚕食传统啤 酒市场份额。与此同时，软饮料销量保持稳健增长，对酒精饮料形成持续分流。中国企业国际化尚处初 级阶段，未来应采取稳健策略：先通过出口试水市场反应，优先布局"一带一路"国家；采用合资模式借 力本土资源，设定准入门槛，避免激进并购。全球啤酒龙头的发展经验表明，运营效率是当前中国酒企 最可行的突破点。 海通国际主要观点如下： 国际化：模式选择与风险管控 国际化是突破本土市场天花板的关键路径，且国际化程度高的企业估值显著溢价。百威英博四次关键并 购成为全球霸主，喜力在70个国家市场份额排名前二，海外收入占比达78%。朝日通过收购欧洲与澳洲 业务，实现55%的海外收入占比；麒麟则因本土化不足与政治风险评估缺失，在巴西、缅甸等地投资遭 遇重大损失。 中国企业国际化尚处初级阶段，2024年啤酒出口仅占产量2%。未来应采取稳健策略：先通过出口试水 市场反应，优先布局"一带一路"国家；采用合资模 ...

Core Viewpoint - The retail sector is under pressure, with social retail sales growth slowing down and valuations in the food and beverage sector at a low point [2][3][10]. Group 1: Social Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index - Social retail sales growth has declined, with total retail sales in October 2025 increasing by 2.9% year-on-year, while the growth rates for dining and commodity retail sales were 1.1% and 4.0% respectively [3][6]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in October 2025, following a decline in food prices, with food CPI down 2.9% year-on-year [3][10]. Group 2: Food and Beverage Sector Performance - The food and beverage sector is experiencing significant pressure, with the overall profit of the liquor sector down 23.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, largely due to strict regulations impacting the industry [12]. - The beverage segment shows strong growth from leading companies, with soft drink revenue reaching 106.2 billion yuan, up 14.4% year-on-year, while the dairy sector faced challenges with a slight decline in revenue [13][14]. Group 3: Market Trends and Consumer Confidence - The online retail channel is growing faster than offline, with a 6.3% year-on-year increase in online sales as of October 2025, driven by food categories [16]. - Consumer confidence is gradually improving, with the consumer confidence index rising from 87.5 in January to 89.4 in October 2025, contributing significantly to GDP growth [18][21]. Group 4: Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low valuation level, with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 21.4 times, placing it in the 10.9% percentile of the last decade [10][11]. - The sector's dividend rate has slightly decreased but still has room for improvement, with the overall dividend rate fluctuating between 60% and 73% from 2019 to 2023 [23].

Core Insights - The core trend observed in the 2025 Hurun China Food Industry Top 100 list is the shift towards health-oriented consumption, with a notable decrease in the number of alcohol and meat product companies on the list, while dairy and agricultural companies have increased [1][8]. Summary by Sections Overall Ranking and Market Value - The threshold for entering the list this year is 9 billion RMB, an increase of 1 billion RMB from last year; the top 50 threshold remains at 22 billion RMB, and the top 10 threshold is 130 billion RMB, unchanged from last year [3]. - The total value of the top 100 food companies is 720 billion RMB, reflecting a 4% increase from the previous year [3]. - Guizhou Moutai ranks first with a value of 1.9 trillion RMB, a 1% increase from last year; Wuliangye follows with 570 billion RMB, up 2%; Nongfu Spring ranks third at 530 billion RMB, with a significant 71% increase [2][4]. Industry Trends - The food and beverage sector is characterized as a traditional industry with overall production capacity nearing saturation, leading to insufficient funding and growth lagging behind the overall A-share market performance [4]. - The beverage segment, particularly new drinks favored by younger consumers, is seeing growth, with companies like Andeli Juice entering the list with a value of 13.5 billion RMB, marking a nearly 70% increase [5]. Sector Performance - The agricultural and livestock sector shows the highest growth, with companies like Dekang Agriculture and Shengnong Development seeing increases of over 10% [7]. - Conversely, the beer sector has experienced declines, with all six listed beer companies reporting drops, attributed to weak recovery in on-premise consumption channels [7]. Changes in Company Composition - The number of liquor companies on the list has decreased from 26 at its peak to 22 this year, while dairy companies have increased from 7 to 11, and agricultural companies from 9 to 12, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier options [8].

风险 需求回暖慢于预期，原材料价格波动，子板块市场竞争加剧。 Text 正文 白酒：报表调整进入后段，板块或在上半年迎拐点 今年白酒行业需求延续弱景气，加上二季度新条例出台，白酒供需两端经历很大冲击，行业开始进入渠道库存去化，报表出清的调整后段，我们预计2026 年白酒报表有望出清改善，上行拐点逐步清晰。 需求端我们认为政策影响会持续减弱，消费场景在大幅压制的基础上会迎来稳步修复，同时促进消费政 策的深化有望驱动需求提升，收入在今年低基数下26年上半年同比有望转正，同时行业开始迎来梯次修复。供给端以创新拓展增量为主线，我们预计库存 隐患将基本解除，其中以用户需求为出发点的创新预计进一步增加，更多企业会拥抱即时零售等线上渠道。 研判一：从消费场景看，政策对政商务需求造成的负向冲击正边际弱化，加之宴席等大众需求偏刚性，1H25低基数背景下，2026年白酒动销或修复至同 比转正。 因外部政策冲击，政商务场景在今年二季度受损较深，且影响延续至下半年的中秋国庆旺季，我们估算全年白酒动销同比双位数以上下滑，政 策扰动延后了原先市场对行业基本面在2025年下半年筑底的判断。展望看，我们认为政策对于政商务需求的影响正边际弱化 ...

食品饮料行业 2026 年投资策略：需求多元、供给升级， 大众消费的嬗变与曙光 20251214 摘要 2025 年食品饮料板块表现不佳，同比下跌 8.1%，受内需疲弱和限酒令 影响。但大众品龙头企业展现韧性，通过适应新渠道和差异化产品，前 三季度收入增长 4.5%，利润增长 2.3%。 食品饮料行业估值偏低，绝对估值约 20 倍 PE，相对于沪深 300 指数溢 价 50%，接近 2013-2014 年水平。交易量快速下行，四季度降至 1.4%，反映行业压力增大，但也存在价值回归机会。 2026 年投资策略侧重自下而上，关注白酒板块的右侧信号和困境反转 公司。推荐东鹏、卫龙、茅台、安井、洽洽、洋河、千禾味业等，以及 餐饮供应链上下游公司的机会。 大众品板块未来发展在于适应现代消费模式，渠道变革加速，包括传统 零售调整、O2O 融合和即时零售。企业需优化渠道体系，把握新零售机 会，关注合作模式变化。 预计 2026 年消费者信心提升，消费特征从极致比价回归高质价比。企 业应进行产品及服务高质价比改造，关注无糖茶、功能饮料等高景气品 种，以及酒水餐饮困境反转机会。 2025 年食品饮料板块的整体表现如何？ 20 ...