研究报告 Research Report 27 Feb 2026 中国必需消费 China (Overseas) Staples 中国必选消费品 2 月成本报告：环比平稳，同比仍处低位 February CGCI: Month-on-month flat, year-on-year still low [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 市盈率 P/E | | 股票名称 | 评级 目标价 | PE(2025E) | PE(2026E) | | 百威亚太 | Neutral 7.90 | 27 | 24 | | 海底捞 | Outperform 18.22 | 18 | 17 | | 华润啤酒 | Outperform 36.00 | n.a. | n.a. | | 康师傅 | Outperform 17.74 | 18 | 16 | | 中国飞鹤 | Outperform 7.00 | 8 | 7 | | 优然牧业 | Outperform 5.50 | n. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the consumer staples sector in China is "Outperform" for multiple companies including Moutai, Wuliangye, and others [1]. Core Insights - Premium baijiu wholesale prices have rebounded month-on-month, while discounts on liquid milk and condiments have narrowed [1][11]. - The report highlights the resilience of consumer stocks amidst a volatile market, emphasizing their value [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Baijiu Pricing - Moutai's wholesale prices for Feitian (case and single bottle) are 1700 and 1650 yuan respectively, with month-on-month increases of +100 and +70 yuan. Year-to-date changes are +100 and +60 yuan, but year-on-year changes are -530 and -560 yuan [10][40]. - Wuliangye's eighth-generation price remains stable at 830 yuan, with a year-to-date increase of +10 yuan and a year-on-year decrease of -105 yuan [4][40]. - Luzhou Laojiao's Guojiao 1573 price is 870 yuan, up by +20 yuan month-on-month and +20 yuan year-to-date, with a year-on-year increase of +10 yuan [4][40]. - Other notable prices include Shanxi Fenjiu and various products from Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu, showing mixed trends in pricing [10][40]. Discounts on Consumer Products - Discounts on liquid milk products have decreased from an average of 62.8% to 61.4% and from 63.4% to 61.7% for median values [19][37]. - Discounts on condiments have also narrowed from 87.1% to 85.0% (average) and from 88.2% to 84.9% (median) [19][37]. - Conversely, discounts on convenience foods have slightly increased, with average discounts moving from 94.8% to 94.6% [20][37]. - Beer, soft drinks, and infant formula discounts have remained stable, with slight variations in average and median rates [21][38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "in line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [115]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight increase of 0.55% in January 2026, with a total trading volume of 32.16 billion shares, reflecting a decrease in trading activity compared to December 2025 [7][8]. - Key sub-sectors related to the Spring Festival, such as prepared foods, snacks, and alcoholic beverages, saw price increases, while previously strong sectors like soft drinks and dairy products experienced declines [9][13]. - The investment growth in the food and beverage manufacturing sector remained high in the first half of 2025 but showed signs of decline in the second half, with a notable contraction in the production of liquor and dairy products [7][36]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in prepared foods, soft drinks, health products, baking, and snacks, with a suggested stock portfolio including companies like Baoli Food, Li Gao Food, and Xianle Health [7][110]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In January 2026, the food and beverage sector's performance ranked sixth from the bottom among 31 primary industries, indicating a weak overall market trend [13][22]. - The proportion of stocks that increased in value reached 64.84%, with significant improvements in sectors like prepared foods and snacks [25][26]. 2. Valuation - As of January 31, 2026, the food and beverage sector's valuation stood at 19.33 times earnings, which is relatively low compared to historical averages [18][22]. - The liquor sector's valuation was 17.76 times, also at a historical low, while other segments like snacks and prepared foods had significantly higher valuations [18][22]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - Stocks in the snack and prepared food sectors showed strong performance, with notable increases in companies like Qianwei Yangchun and Haoxiangni [26][31]. - The liquor sector displayed mixed results, with some brands like Huangtai Liquor and Water Well Liquor performing well, while others like Yanghe and Moutai faced declines [31][32]. 4. Investment Trends - The food and beverage manufacturing sector's investment growth was robust in early 2025 but began to decline in the latter half of the year, reflecting cautious investment behavior amid rising costs [33][36]. - The production of fresh and frozen meat maintained high growth, while liquor and dairy products continued to see production declines [38][39]. 5. Import and Price Trends - In 2025, imports of corn and wheat saw significant declines, while imports of high-end dairy products and nuts experienced growth [54][56]. - Domestic prices for raw milk are stabilizing, while prices for oils and vegetables are showing upward trends [81][82].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "in line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% and +10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [115]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight increase of 0.55% in January 2026, with a total trading volume of 32.16 billion shares, reflecting a decrease in trading activity compared to December 2025 [7][8]. - Key sub-sectors related to the Spring Festival, such as prepared foods, snacks, and alcoholic beverages, saw price increases, while previously strong sectors like soft drinks, dairy, condiments, and meat products experienced declines [9][13]. - The investment in the food and beverage manufacturing industry continued to show high growth levels in early 2025, but the growth rate has been declining since the second half of 2025 [33][36]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in prepared foods, soft drinks, health products, baking, yeast, and snacks, with a suggested stock portfolio including companies like Baoli Food, Lihigh Food, and Xianle Health [110][112]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - In January 2026, the food and beverage sector's performance ranked sixth from the bottom among 31 primary industries, indicating a weak overall market trend [13][22]. - The sector's trading volume decreased significantly, with a drop of 74.24 billion shares compared to the previous month [8]. 2. Valuation - As of January 31, 2026, the food and beverage sector's valuation stood at 19.33 times earnings, which is relatively low compared to historical levels [18][22]. - The valuation of the liquor sector was 17.76 times, also at a historical low, while other segments like snacks and condiments had significantly higher valuations [18]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - In January 2026, 64.84% of individual stocks in the sector saw price increases, with notable performances in prepared foods and snacks [25][26]. - Specific stocks such as Qianwei Yangchun and Haoxiangni showed substantial gains, while traditional liquor brands experienced mixed results [31][32]. 4. Investment Trends - The food and beverage manufacturing sector's fixed asset investment grew by 22.9% year-on-year in 2024, but showed signs of slowing down in the latter half of 2025 [33][36]. - The production of key products like fresh meat and edible oil maintained growth, while categories like wine and dairy continued to see declines [38][39]. 5. Import and Price Trends - In 2025, imports of corn and wheat saw significant declines, while imports of high-end dairy products and nuts increased [54][56]. - Prices for raw milk are stabilizing, while prices for oils and vegetables are showing upward trends [81][82].

Group 1 - Anta has officially announced its partnership with the Greek Olympic Committee, providing professional sportswear for the Greek sports delegation at major international events [1] - The collaboration with the Greek Olympic Committee comes after Li Ning secured the partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee for the 2025-2028 period [2] - Anta will continue to support 13 Chinese national teams, providing equipment for 10 teams competing in various winter sports [3] Group 2 - Anta's strategy includes a three-step plan aimed at enhancing its global presence, starting with establishing a strong international brand in China, followed by expanding globally, and ultimately promoting the Anta brand worldwide [4][5] - The investment in Olympic marketing reflects the confidence of major players in the sports market despite fluctuations [6]

Investment Rating - The report provides various investment ratings for companies in the consumer staples sector, with several companies rated as "Outperform" and one as "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report indicates that price hikes in the consumer staples sector are weaker than expected, while costs remain low [1]. - The monitored spot cost indices for six consumer goods categories have declined, while futures cost indices have primarily increased [34]. Summary by Category Beer - The spot cost index decreased by 1.87% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.15%. Year-to-date, the spot index has changed by -0.6% and the futures index by +1.81% [35]. - Glass prices have shown a month-on-month decrease of 1.2% for spot prices and an increase of 3.4% for futures prices [35]. Condiments - The spot cost index decreased by 1.37% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.03%. Year-to-date changes are -0.42% for spot and +2.23% for futures [36]. - Soybean prices have decreased by 2.4% month-on-month for spot prices, while futures prices increased by 6.7% [36]. Dairy Products - The spot cost index decreased by 1.93% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 1.58%. Year-to-date changes are -0.43% for spot and +1.68% for futures [37]. - Fresh milk prices rose to 3.04 yuan/kg, with corn prices increasing by 0.4% month-on-month [37]. Instant Noodles - The spot cost index decreased by 0.51% month-on-month, while the futures index increased by 3.31%. Year-to-date changes are +0.79% for spot and +3.46% for futures [38]. - Palm oil prices increased by 9.6% month-on-month for spot prices [38]. Frozen Food - The spot cost index decreased by 1.74% month-on-month, while the futures index decreased by 0.61%. Year-to-date changes are -1.44% for spot and -0.14% for futures [39]. - Vegetable prices fell by 1.8% month-on-month [39]. Soft Drinks - The spot cost index decreased by 3.71% month-on-month, while the futures index remained unchanged. Year-to-date changes are -1.12% for spot and -0.19% for futures [40]. - PET chip prices increased by 5.4% month-on-month [40].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed outlook for the Japanese consumer sector, with essential goods remaining resilient while discretionary spending shows signs of weakness [1]. Core Insights - The Japanese consumer sector in December exhibited three main characteristics: essential goods maintained resilience, discretionary spending weakened, and industry consolidation accelerated [3][15]. - Consumer confidence index in December recorded 36.2, slightly down from 36.4 in November, indicating a marginal decline in household consumption willingness [2][9]. - The core CPI in December rose by 2.4% year-on-year, showing a significant drop from November, while the CCCPI increased by 2.9%, indicating persistent high inflation levels [2][11]. Summary by Sections Macro - Inflation is slowing down, and the yen has appreciated significantly. The consumer confidence index in December was 36.2, slightly lower than November's 36.4 and below market expectations [2][9]. - The willingness to purchase durable goods decreased significantly, reflecting a marginal weakening in household consumption tendencies [9]. - Actual wages in November contracted by 2.8% year-on-year, marking an ongoing negative growth trend for 11 consecutive months [9][11]. Industry - The consumer sector is experiencing a general slowdown in growth rates across sub-industries, with duty-free consumption continuing to weaken. Essential goods like food and daily necessities show stable demand, while discretionary items like clothing and home goods are under pressure [3][15]. - External disturbances have notably impacted retail growth, with a warm winter suppressing demand for winter goods and a reduction in holiday shopping days negatively affecting retail sales growth by approximately 2 percentage points [3][15]. - The industry is witnessing an accelerated pace of consolidation, with significant mergers and acquisitions, such as the full acquisition of Welcia by Katsuya and subsequent TOB completion by Aeon [3][15]. Essential Companies - In December, same-store sales for Aeon decreased by 0.3%, while PPIH and 711 Japan reported increases of 3.0% and 1.9%, respectively [4][18]. - The drugstore sector saw Matsukiyo Cocokara's same-store sales decline by 4.6%, while Katsuya's increased by 0.3% [21][19]. - The beverage sector reported a 6% increase in sales for Suntory, while Asahi's sales dropped by 22% [4][22]. Discretionary Companies - In December, same-store sales for major restaurant chains like Saizeriya and Skylark increased by 18.7% and 11.0%, respectively, while clothing retailers like Uniqlo and ABC-MART saw declines of 6.6% and 0.4% [5][35]. - The overall sales for department stores in Japan fell by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth in five years, primarily due to a warm winter and a significant drop in duty-free sales [40][41]. - The hotel sector reported a 5.1% increase in revenue, with a 86% occupancy rate, reflecting a recovery in tourism [43][44].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the consumer services sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a dual focus on "service consumption" and "dividend assets" as key investment themes, highlighting the resilience of service consumption compared to goods [4]. - It notes a significant shift in market pricing logic from "total elasticity" to "structural dividends," driven by a clear L-shaped bottoming phase in overall consumption [4]. - The report identifies a "K-shaped differentiation" in the market, with macro-sensitive assets showing strong performance against cyclical sectors like real estate [4]. Summary by Sections Trend Analysis - The report discusses the increasing "K-shaped differentiation" in the market, where service consumption is outperforming goods, with restaurant services growing by 2.2% compared to a mere 0.7% for physical goods [4][14]. - It highlights the impact of the calendar effect on short-term growth rates, particularly due to the timing of the 2026 Spring Festival, which has caused a temporary dip in consumption figures [4][14]. Valuation Analysis - As of January 18, 2026, the core consumer sector's PE-TTM has fallen to historical low levels, with food and beverage sectors at 7.5% and liquor at 4.1%, indicating a significant safety margin and potential for valuation recovery [4][28]. - The report suggests that current valuation levels have adequately priced in macroeconomic disturbances, enhancing the long-term investment appeal of core assets [4][28]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends a "barbell strategy" for investment, balancing defensive positions in essential consumer goods with aggressive positions in sectors benefiting from policy catalysts and improving fundamentals, such as cosmetics and sports [4]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on dividend-paying stocks with strong cash flows as a defensive strategy while also targeting high-growth sectors for potential upside [4]. Sector Rotation - The report outlines a sector rotation strategy, advising investments in essential consumption and real estate on the left side, while embracing growth opportunities in overseas markets on the right side [21]. - It notes that the food and beverage sector is poised for growth due to the upcoming Spring Festival, which is expected to catalyze demand [22].

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector has been overlooked in the current bull market, with the CSI 300 index rising by 16% in 2025 while the consumer index fell by nearly 8% [4]. Group 1: Market Performance and Trends - In the first ten trading days of 2026, only 17 out of nearly 800 consumer stocks saw gains exceeding 30%, indicating a lack of confidence in the fundamentals of consumer stocks [5][6]. - Despite the overall market rally, consumer stocks have not performed well, with the current bull market not favoring them as a main theme [8][9]. - Policies aimed at boosting consumption have been introduced, including the central economic work conference prioritizing consumption as a key task for 2026 [8]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment and Fund Flows - Large funds are currently favoring broad-based ETFs over consumer stocks, with institutional investors shifting focus from traditional consumer sectors to growth sectors like technology and healthcare [11][12]. - Retail investors have contributed significantly to market liquidity, but many are gravitating towards high-volatility tech stocks rather than consumer stocks [12][13]. - The overall sentiment towards consumer stocks remains weak, with expectations of a slow recovery in demand and structural optimization in consumption patterns [13][20]. Group 3: Sector Analysis and Future Outlook - The consumer sector is entering a phase of structural optimization, with traditional consumption models facing challenges [34][36]. - The growth potential in the consumer sector is uneven, with segments like snacks and soft drinks showing promise, while sectors like liquor are struggling [28][29]. - The gaming market is projected to grow significantly, with a historical high in sales revenue and user base [31]. Group 4: Investment Strategies and Key Characteristics - Future investment strategies should focus on companies with strong individual capabilities and the ability to adapt to changing consumer demands [38][39]. - Companies that can innovate, explore new business models, and have international market capabilities are likely to perform better [41]. - The service sector, particularly in tourism, dining, and entertainment, is expected to be a key area for growth in domestic consumption [43].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "in line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [90]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant decline of 4.05% in December 2025, with traditional categories like liquor, beer, and meat products suffering losses, while emerging categories such as snacks, soft drinks, and health products showed growth [5][6]. - For the entire year of 2025, the food and beverage sector recorded a cumulative decline of 3.73%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 17.75% [10][12]. - The valuation of the food and beverage sector is at a relative low point historically, with a current valuation of 19.28 times earnings, which is lower than the ten-year average [18][23]. - Investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as soft drinks, health products, baking, and snacks, with specific stock picks including Baoli Food, Lihigh Food, and Dongpeng Beverage [84][87]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The food and beverage sector's performance in December 2025 was marked by a 4.05% drop, with traditional categories declining while emerging categories maintained upward trends [5][6]. - The cumulative performance for 2025 showed a decline of 3.73%, with the sector ranking last among 31 primary industries [12][10]. - Emerging categories like snacks and health products outperformed traditional categories, which faced significant declines [10][12]. 2. Valuation - The food and beverage sector's valuation is at a ten-year low, currently at 19.28 times earnings, with the liquor sector valued at 17.6 times [18][23]. - The sector's valuation is lower than 21 other industries, ranking second to last among consumer sectors [23]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - In December 2025, 23% of individual stocks in the sector rose, while 77% fell, indicating a challenging market environment [26]. - Notable performers included pre-made food and health product stocks, while liquor stocks saw a comprehensive decline [29][32]. 4. Investment Trends - Investment in the food and beverage manufacturing sector continued to grow in 2025, although there was a decline in growth rates in the latter part of the year [37]. - The production of traditional products like liquor and dairy continued to shrink, while fresh meat and edible oil production showed growth [41][43]. 5. Price Trends - Prices for raw materials such as milk and canned goods are experiencing downward trends, while vegetable prices have surged significantly [64][66]. - The price of pork has stabilized, with a notable increase in the price of live pigs [66][67]. 6. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors like soft drinks, health products, and snacks for investment opportunities, highlighting the resilience of these categories in a challenging market [84][87].