黄金税收新政利好菜百投资金业务 菜百股份(605599) 菜百股份公司更新报告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.12.04 2025-12-04 批零贸易业[Table_Industry] /可选消费品 公 司 跟 踪 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 投资建议：维持优于大市评级。预测公司 2025-2027 年营业收入分 别为 260.73/289.45/318.04 亿元，增速分别为 29%/11%/10%；预测公 司 2025-2027 年归母净利润分别为 8.33/9.43/10.23 亿元（原 2025-26 预测为 7.25/8.15 亿元），增速分别为 16%/13%/9%。税收新政下公 司在投资金市场份额有望提升。给予公司 2025 年略高于行业平均的 18xPE（原为 2024 年 16x），目标价 19.26 元（+41%）。 | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 16 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China International Jewelry Exhibition showcases a variety of products from Cai Bai Co., a state-controlled listed company, highlighting its commitment to cultural heritage and innovation in jewelry design [1][11]. Group 1: Product Offerings - Cai Bai Co. presents a diverse range of products at the exhibition, including the "Cai Bai Chuan Shi" sub-brand featuring traditional craftsmanship and modern designs tailored for different occasions [4][5]. - New collections such as the "Colorful Wheat Ear" set and the "Oriental Garden - Golden Era" series are introduced, focusing on both fashion and practicality [4]. - The company launches various auspicious products for the upcoming Year of the Horse, including the "Hugging Horse" and "Little Horse Duo Duo" series, emphasizing cultural significance and investment value [10]. Group 2: Cultural Integration - Cai Bai Co. collaborates with iconic cultural landmarks to create unique jewelry collections that reflect traditional Chinese culture, such as the "One Life Yi Shi" and "Cheng Qi Yuan Ji" series [11]. - The "Meng Dong Jing Cai" and "Wan Chun Na Fu" series draw inspiration from Beijing's natural and architectural heritage, promoting animal protection and cultural appreciation through jewelry [13]. Group 3: Future Direction - The company aims to continue its focus on heritage and innovation, appealing to younger consumers while enhancing cultural confidence in Chinese brands within the jewelry industry [15].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing Caishikou Department Store Co., Ltd. reported significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by a focus on core business development and market opportunities in the gold and jewelry sector [9][10]. Company Overview and Financial Indicators - The company achieved operating revenue of approximately 15.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.75% [18]. - Total profit reached approximately 625.90 million yuan, up 16.43% from the previous year [18]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was approximately 458.69 million yuan, reflecting a 14.75% increase [18]. - The company’s net assets stood at approximately 3.93 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.33% compared to the end of the previous year [18]. Industry and Business Situation - The company operates in the retail industry, specifically in the jewelry sector, which has seen a retail sales total of 194.8 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth [10]. - Consumer preferences are shifting towards lightweight products and high-quality craftsmanship, with increased demand for gold as a means of asset preservation [10][11]. - The company has established a multi-brand strategy, including its main brand "Caibai Jewelry" and sub-brands focusing on traditional gold and fashion jewelry [10]. Operational Model - The company employs a "smile curve" operational model, focusing on high-value-added activities such as raw material procurement and product design, while outsourcing standardized production processes [10][11]. - The company has a robust sales network comprising 103 physical stores and a strong online presence through various e-commerce platforms [11][12]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the Beijing market for gold and jewelry, with a strong brand reputation and consumer trust [12][13]. - The company has received multiple awards for service quality and consumer satisfaction, enhancing its market influence [12]. Performance Drivers - The integration of channel expansion and digital operations has significantly contributed to revenue growth, with online sales increasing by 85.77% year-on-year [12][13]. - The company has focused on product differentiation and quality control, ensuring a comprehensive product range that meets diverse consumer needs [12][13]. Future Strategies - The company aims to deepen its direct sales advantages and enhance operational efficiency through technology and digital transformation [14][15]. - Plans include optimizing product differentiation strategies and expanding the marketing network to capture new market opportunities [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced significant revenue growth driven by rising gold prices and strong sales in precious metal investments and cultural products, although profit margins faced downward pressure due to changes in product mix [1][2][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.233 billion yuan (up 22.24% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 719 million yuan (up 1.73%) [1] - For Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.887 billion yuan (up 16.84%) with a net profit of 165 million yuan (up 43.00%) [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 8.222 billion yuan (up 30.18%) and net profit was 320 million yuan (up 17.32%) [1] Product and Channel Analysis - In 2024, revenue from gold jewelry was 5.473 billion yuan (down 11.14%), while precious metal investment products generated 12.906 billion yuan (up 45.28%) and cultural products brought in 1.563 billion yuan (up 40.87%) [2] - The share of precious metal investment products increased to 64% (up 10 percentage points), while gold jewelry's share decreased to 27% (down 10 percentage points) [2] - Offline revenue was 15.095 billion yuan (up 13.40%), online revenue was 4.818 billion yuan (up 60.26%), and bank revenue was 301 million yuan (up 43.48%) [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 8.94% (down 1.74 percentage points), and the net profit margin was 3.59% (down 0.71 percentage points) [2] - For Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 8.34% (down 1.66 percentage points), and the net profit margin was 3.95% (down 0.38 percentage points) [3] Store Expansion - By the end of 2024, the company had 100 directly operated stores, with a net increase of 13 stores during the year [3] - In Q1 2025, the company added 4 new stores and closed 2, with plans to open 3 more in Q2 [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 803 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 930 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 12%, 8%, and 7% respectively [4] - The company maintains a "strong buy" rating with a 2025 PE ratio of 13.1X and a 2026 PE ratio of 12.1X [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance exceeded expectations, driven by rising gold prices which stimulated demand for investment products [8] - The company reported a total revenue of 20.23 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 22.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 719 million yuan, up 1.73% year-on-year [8] - The company is expanding its direct store network and enhancing its multi-channel layout, with a focus on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is estimated at 24.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.8% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 804 million yuan, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year increase [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 7.20 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 560 million yuan, which represents 77.89% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [8]