Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The coniferous pulp futures have stabilized, boosting the market and leading to a slight improvement in spot transactions. The foreign market price of broadleaf pulp has been continuously increasing, providing cost support for the firmness of the spot price. However, the pattern of high inventory and weak demand remains unchanged, and the market lacks directional guidance. It is expected that the upward space for pulp is limited, and the market will maintain a volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Demand - During the week, the production of household paper, coated paper, and white cardboard decreased, while the production of offset paper increased [6]. Supply - The sample production of Chinese broadleaf pulp was 250,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons compared to last week. The sample broadleaf pulp market remained stable this period, and the production enterprises' equipment returned to normal production. It is expected that the sample production will maintain a stable trend in the short term [7]. Inventory - As of November 6, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.008 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons compared to the previous period, with a month - on - month decline of 2.6%. The inventory showed a narrow - range destocking trend this period [7]. - The inventory changes of different ports: Qingdao Port decreased by 3.9% (from 1.41 million tons to 1.355 million tons), Changshu Port increased by 0.6% (from 503,000 tons to 506,000 tons), Gaolan Port increased by 64.7% (from 34,000 tons to 56,000 tons), Tianjin Port decreased by 29.2% (from 72,000 tons to 51,000 tons), and Rizhao Port decreased by 4.8% (from 42,000 tons to 40,000 tons) [9]. Profit - The price of domestic waste paper continued to rise, and due to strong cost pressure, the gross profit of corrugated paper, boxboard paper, and white board paper shrank. The demand for bobbin paper was good, and the increase in the price of base paper exceeded the cost, resulting in a 11.00% month - on - month increase in gross profit. Due to more positive news on the demand side of social white cardboard, the increase in base paper price was greater than that of pulp price, and the gross profit increased by 78.18% month - on - month. The price of cultural printing paper base paper remained flat, while the price of domestic chemimechanical pulp increased month - on - month, so the gross profit of double - copper paper decreased by 4.37% month - on - month [7]. - Specific profit data: The gross profit of boxboard paper decreased by 3.24% (from 683 yuan/ton to 661 yuan/ton), corrugated paper decreased by 7.79% (from 408 yuan/ton to 376 yuan/ton), bobbin paper increased by 11.00% (from 100 yuan/ton to 111 yuan/ton), white board paper decreased by 9.73% (from 339 yuan/ton to 306 yuan/ton), social white cardboard increased by 78.18% (from 110 yuan/ton to 196 yuan/ton), offset paper decreased by 2.37% (from - 253 yuan/ton to - 259 yuan/ton), double - copper paper decreased by 4.37% (from 183 yuan/ton to 175 yuan/ton), and household paper remained unchanged at 149 yuan/ton [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, pulp prices fluctuated within a range with reduced volatility. The near - term contradictions are not prominent. The relatively weak fundamentals have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. Although the output of finished paper has increased, the upward driving force is still insufficient, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The Fed's interest rate cut has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. - In the near - term, the weak reality corresponds to weak prices. Port inventories are at a high level and de - stocking is not smooth. The prices of needle pulp and broadleaf pulp are restricted, but the impact of the Bu - needle warehouse receipt will weaken after the delivery of the 09 contract. In the long - term, the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial to commodities, and the valuation of the 01 contract will increase, but there is no significant upward driving force for now [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Fundamentals**: The fundamentals are relatively weak, with Bu - needle warehouse receipt pressure, high inventory and poor de - stocking, and the so - called "peak season is not prosperous". However, these factors have been priced in, and there are no new negative factors. The output of finished paper has increased this week, showing some improvement [1]. - **Macroeconomics**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 4.00% - 4.25% range in September, which is the first rate cut since December 2024. This is due to slow employment growth and rising unemployment. It has certain positive factors for long - term prices [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Futures**: It is recommended to wait and see, as the current market is in a state of range - bound fluctuations with limited bottom space and insufficient upward driving force, and the trading opportunities are not significant [5]. - **Options**: Consider selling near - month out - of - the - money call options and selling far - month out - of - the - money put options [5]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high needle pulp inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 5200 - 5300 [8]. - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy pulp futures to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 4900 - 5000 [8]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US exempted pulp from the 50% tariff on Brazilian goods in July 2025 and further cancelled tariffs on most Brazilian pulp exports in September, reducing the export cost of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to the US and increasing the proportion of exports to the US [8]. - **Negative Information**: Since September, the pulp market has been sluggish, lacking the consumption support of the so - called "Golden September and Silver October" peak season [9]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides the latest prices, price changes, and other information of various pulp futures contracts and domestic spot pulp and finished paper [10][13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Single - side Trend and Capital Movement**: Last week, the sp2511 contract fluctuated with a small range, and the weekly position decreased by 21,328 lots [15]. - **Basis and Spread Structure**: The spread structure remains in a C - structure and has strengthened, indicating some improvement in long - term expectations [18]. Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory - **Inventory**: As of September 18, the inventory was 2.122 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons, ending two weeks of de - stocking and turning to inventory accumulation. High - level inventory is difficult to reduce, and high shipments and high inventory restrict the upward elasticity of pulp prices [20]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply pressure is still large, while the demand has slightly improved, and there is a certain degree of differentiation in finished paper. The output of most finished paper has increased, but the production profit of downstream enterprises has not improved [20].