Q&A 2025 年铬市场的价格走势如何？有哪些关键节点和原因？ 铬专家会议：铬产业链涨价解读与展望 20251124 摘要 2025 年初以来，铬产业链产品价格持续上涨，尤其 10 月底金属铬大幅 拉涨，主要受第二次国储收储量远超预期影响，导致供应紧张。 三季度铬产品价格曾因高温季企业减产和国储收储延迟交付而回调，但 10 月因第二次收储超预期迅速反弹，预计短期内大规模收储难再现，但 长期或有小规模补充采购。 全球范围内，高温合金和高端制造对金属材料需求显著增加，高温合金 需求增长 20%-30%。欧洲计划 2026 年实施关键原材料法案，战略储 备需达年消费量 45%。 南非计划对未经加工铬矿征收 25%出口关税，虽会增加中国铬盐企业成 本压力，但可通过产业链传导和中国市场话语权缓解，整体影响有限。 铬盐主要用于不锈钢生产，需求稳定增长。铬产业废渣处理技术显著改 善，无钙焙烧工艺减少废渣产量且不含六价铬，废渣成为钢厂重要原料。 环保标准提升对铬产业小企业带来挑战，高昂的环保成本可能导致停产 或退出市场。龙头企业已能将六价铬排放浓度控制在远低于国家标准的 水平。 金属铬需求增长，预计 2025 年全球产量将 ...

Core Insights - The chromium salt market has experienced a significant price increase, with a monthly rise of approximately 24% since the fourth quarter of the year [2][4] - Major players like Zhenhua Co. have raised prices multiple times, with a cumulative increase of 14,000 yuan/ton, while Sichuan Yinhe Chemical Co. announced a price hike of 5,000 yuan/ton starting November 10 [2][4] - The price surge is attributed to a mismatch in supply and demand, tightening upstream resources, strict environmental regulations, and rapidly growing downstream demand [2][5] Industry Overview - Chromium is primarily found in the form of chromite, with global resources concentrated in South Africa, Kazakhstan, and Zimbabwe. China accounts for about 45% of the world's chromium salt production [3] - As of November 11, the price of metallic chromium reached 83,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of approximately 38% [4] - The supply-demand imbalance is expected to worsen, with projections indicating a shortfall of over 70,000 tons for chromium and 300,000 tons for chromium salts by 2028, representing a gap of over 30% [5] Company Developments - Zhenhua Co. is actively participating in the bankruptcy restructuring of Xinjiang Shenhong Group and other companies, investing 200 million yuan to acquire 100% equity post-restructuring [6] - The restructuring aims to enhance Zhenhua's business channels and promote the integration and upgrade of the chromium salt industry towards higher quality and efficiency [6] - Zhenhua Co. is currently the largest producer of chromium chemicals and vitamin K3 globally, positioning itself to capitalize on industry opportunities [6]

Group 1 - The company has been asked about the recent significant price increase of chromium products across various chemical platforms and whether it has any impact on their sales and production capacity [1] - The company confirmed that it sells chromium-related products such as chromium tanning agents, sodium dichromate, and chromium anhydride, and the price increase of these products is expected to enhance the profitability of its chromium salt segment [1] - The company advised stakeholders to refer to its periodic reports for specific production volume details [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhenhua Convertible Bonds have shown a price increase and a notable premium rate, indicating investor interest and market activity [1] - Zhenhua Convertible Bonds have a credit rating of "AA" and a maturity period of 6 years, with a structured interest rate that increases over time [1] - The conversion price for the bonds is set at 8.2 yuan, with the conversion period starting on January 20, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co., Ltd. is recognized as the largest listed chromium salt company globally, with significant production capacity in Vitamin K3 [2] - The company operates high-tech production bases in Hubei and Chongqing, and it has established well-known brands in the industry [2] - For the first half of 2025, Zhenhua achieved a revenue of 2.1896 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.17%, and a net profit of 297.9 million yuan, up 23.62% year-on-year [2] - The concentration of shareholding is relatively high, with the top ten shareholders holding a combined 48.79% of shares [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue reaching 2.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.17%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 298 million yuan, up 23.62% year-on-year [6] - The company experienced a significant increase in sales volume and prices for its products, particularly in Q2 2025, with a notable rise in gross margin and net margin [6] - The company is participating in the bankruptcy restructuring of Xinjiang Shenhong, which may optimize the industry landscape, and has ongoing projects expected to contribute to future growth [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 4.46 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.7% [5] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 703 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 48.8% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.99 yuan for 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhenhua Convertible Bonds have shown a price increase and a notable premium rate, indicating investor interest and market activity [1] - Zhenhua Convertible Bonds have a credit rating of "AA" and a maturity period of 6 years, with a structured coupon rate increasing over the years [1] - The conversion price for the bonds is set at 8.2 yuan, with the conversion period starting on January 20, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co., Ltd. is recognized as the largest listed chromium salt company globally, with significant production capacity in Vitamin K3 [2] - The company operates high-tech production bases in Hubei and Chongqing, and it has established well-known brands in the industry [2] - For the first quarter of 2025, Zhenhua achieved a revenue of 1.0198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.59%, and a net profit of 117.4 million yuan, reflecting a 37.27% increase [2] - The concentration of shareholding is relatively high, with the top ten shareholders holding 47.57% of the shares [2]

Summary of the Metal Chromium Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the metal chromium industry, highlighting significant price increases in the first half of the year due to various factors including rising chromium ore prices, a 20%-30% increase in market demand, and government stockpiling policies [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Price Dynamics**: Metal chromium prices surged over 20,000 RMB per ton, driven by increased demand and stockpiling by intermediaries. Recent price adjustments saw a slight decrease of about 5% [1][3][5]. - **Government Stockpiling**: The Chinese government plans to stockpile 5,000 tons of metal chromium starting in 2025, with potential future plans influenced by geopolitical factors [1][6]. - **Production Capacity**: Major companies in the industry are operating at 110%-120% capacity, limiting the ability to increase production further due to tight supply of raw materials like germanium trioxide [1][11]. - **High-Temperature Alloy Demand**: The military sector's demand for high-temperature alloys has significantly increased, with metal chromium accounting for 60%-70% of high-end stainless steel production [1][12][18]. - **Geopolitical Influences**: Geopolitical tensions have led to increased stockpiling of ammunition and related materials, driving up the demand for high-temperature alloys [1][20]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Shortages**: A potential market shortage is anticipated from late August to September due to stockpiling needs, which may push prices above 100,000 RMB per ton in the first half of next year [2][42]. - **Purity and Pricing**: Only a few domestic companies can produce 99.99% pure metal chromium, with prices for this high-purity product being 30%-40% higher than 99.9% products [2][25][28]. - **Export Regulations**: China has implemented export licensing for cobalt, which may extend to stricter measures for metal chromium in the future [22]. - **Production Challenges**: The production of high-purity metal chromium is complex and requires proprietary processes, limiting the number of producers capable of achieving such purity levels [25][29]. - **Environmental Regulations**: Current environmental standards are stringent, impacting new projects more than established companies that have already invested in compliance [35][36]. Conclusion The metal chromium industry is experiencing significant price fluctuations driven by demand, government policies, and geopolitical factors. The production capacity is constrained, and the market may face shortages, leading to further price increases. The focus on high-purity products and environmental compliance will shape the industry's future dynamics.

Group 1: Company Overview and Product Information - The company has four production bases, with key products including Vitamin K3, chromium tanning agents, and various pharmaceutical raw materials [1] - The main applications of para-hydroxyphenol span multiple industries, including food, daily chemicals, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, dyes, and polymer materials [1] - The company has officially started selling para-hydroxyphenol in the PEEK field and is currently in the verification stage with major domestic PEEK manufacturers [2] Group 2: Regulatory Approvals and Product Registration - The company has obtained various regulatory approvals for iodine contrast agents, including registrations in China, India, Japan, and CEP certification [2] - Currently, the company holds registration certificates for two formulation products, with one product, Bisoprolol fumarate tablets, having commenced market promotion in 2024 [2] Group 3: Financial Performance and Inventory Management - The growth in performance for the first half of 2025 is attributed to the year-on-year price increase of certain vitamin products and a decrease in production costs [2] - The company maintains a large ending inventory balance due to its diverse product lines, which include vitamins, flavors, raw materials, and chromium salts, and is focused on improving asset turnover efficiency [2] Group 4: Supply Chain and Procurement - The company sources chromium ore locally in South Africa as needed and currently has no plans to acquire chromium mines [2] Group 5: Disclosure and Compliance - The investor relations activity did not involve any undisclosed significant information [2]

Company Overview - Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co., Ltd. (stock code SH.603067) is currently the largest listed chromium salt company globally and ranks among the top producers of Vitamin K3 [2] - The company is recognized as a high-tech enterprise with production bases in Huangshi, Hubei, and Tongnan, Chongqing, and owns two well-known brands, "Minzhong" and "Chugao" [2] - Major products include sodium dichromate, potassium dichromate, chromium trioxide, chromium oxide green, basic chromium sulfate, refined sodium dichromate, chrome yellow, metallic chromium, ultra-fine aluminum hydroxide, and Vitamin K3 [2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to March 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 1.0198 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.59% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 117.4 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.27% [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 114.9 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 29.93% [2] Shareholder Structure - As of March 2025, the concentration of shares is relatively high, with the top ten shareholders holding a combined 47.57% of the shares [2] - The total number of shareholders is approximately 18,590, with an average of 27,390 circulating shares per shareholder and an average holding amount of 340,700 yuan [2] Market Activity - On July 14, XD Zhenhua's convertible bonds rose by 2.0% to 201.008 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 95.5918 million yuan and a conversion premium rate of 11.75% [1] - The convertible bonds have a credit rating of "AA" and a term of 6 years, with a coupon rate that increases over the years, starting from 0.20% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [1] - The conversion price for the bonds is set at 8.2 yuan, with the conversion period starting on January 20, 2025 [1]

Company Overview - Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co., Ltd. is currently the largest listed chromium salt company globally, with significant production capacity for Vitamin K3 [2] - The company operates high-tech enterprises with production bases in Huangshi, Hubei, and Tongnan, Chongqing, and owns well-known brands "Minzhong" and "Chugao" [2] - Zhenhua's main products include sodium dichromate, potassium dichromate, chromium trioxide, chromium oxide green, basic chromium sulfate, refined yellow powder, chromium yellow, metallic chromium, ultra-fine aluminum hydroxide, and Vitamin K3 [2] Financial Performance - For the period of January to March 2025, Zhenhua achieved a revenue of 1.0198 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.59% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 117.4 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.27% [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 114.9 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 29.93% [2] Shareholder Structure - As of March 2025, the concentration of shares is relatively high, with the top ten shareholders holding a combined 47.57% of the shares [2] - The total number of shareholders is 18,590, with an average of 27,390 circulating shares per person and an average holding amount of 340,700 yuan [2] Convertible Bond Information - Zhenhua's convertible bond experienced a decline of 3.55%, trading at 198.886 yuan per bond, with a transaction volume of 104 million yuan and a conversion premium rate of 8.95% [1] - The convertible bond has a credit rating of "AA" and a maturity of 6 years, with a coupon rate that increases over the years, starting from 0.20% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [1] - The conversion price for the bond is set at 8.2 yuan, with the conversion period starting on January 20, 2025 [1]