上 市 公 司 基础化工 证券分析师 2025 年 08 月 26 日 振华股份 (603067) ——沈宏重整确认为唯一投资人，行业格局持续优化 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 19.26 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 24.46/9.98 | | 市净率 | 4.1 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.99 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 13,689 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,883.56/12,441.07 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 4.73 | | 资产负债率% | 35.16 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 711/711 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-26 09-26 10-26 11-26 12-26 01-26 02-26 03-26 04 ...

Summary of Zhuhua Co. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhuhua Co. - **Industry**: Chemical Industry, specifically focusing on sodium dichromate and chromium products Key Points and Arguments Production and Sales Performance - In Q2 2025, sodium dichromate production reached 147,000 tons, with an annualized sales volume of 320,000 tons, significantly higher than 260,000 tons in the same period last year, driven by strong market demand and no factory maintenance [2][3] - The company achieved a balance between production and sales in Q2, with raw material price differences remaining stable, leading to optimized unit costs and performance growth primarily from increased sales volume [2][4] Future Performance Drivers - Over the next two to three years, key performance drivers will include increased production leading to scale effects and cost optimization. Even with potential price decreases and widening raw material price gaps, overall cost reductions may still lead to stable or rising gross margins [5][7] - The company plans to add 100,000 tons of production capacity by the end of 2027 to ensure gradual annual production increases, with profitability from increased output being crucial [2][12] Pricing and Cost Dynamics - In Q2 2025, the sales price of sodium dichromate and chromium oxide products increased by approximately 5% quarter-over-quarter, offsetting the rise in raw material costs [6] - The price of metallic chromium remained stable, with minimal contribution to overall performance due to low production volumes [6][9] Market Outlook - The company anticipates potential challenges such as price reductions and widening raw material price gaps in the next two to three years, but expects to maintain stable or slightly rising gross margins through increased production and cost optimization [7] - The market for metallic chromium showed high activity in May and June 2025, but stabilized in July due to seasonal factors and cautious sentiment among domestic customers [8][9] Raw Material and Product Price Differences - The price difference between raw materials and products increased by approximately 5 percentage points in Q2 compared to Q1, reflecting the company's specific situation rather than industry-wide data [10] - Despite stable individual mineral prices in recent months, high procurement costs continue to impact future production costs and profit levels [11] Capacity Expansion Plans - The company aims for continuous technical upgrades to enhance production capacity, targeting 320,000 tons in 2025 and a total production capacity of 250,000 tons annually by the end of 2027 [19][20] Cash Flow and Profitability - There was a significant gap between operating cash flow and profit in Q2, influenced by factors such as delayed cash receipts from export customers [21] - The company has historically experienced fluctuations in quarterly operating cash flow, which may not be indicative of annual performance [21] Competitive Landscape - The chemical industry is currently experiencing favorable conditions, with Zhuhua Co. achieving a historical gross margin of 31% in Q2 2025. The company is leveraging its low-cost advantage to optimize industry structure and maintain profitability [22][23] Other Business Segments - Other business segments, including vanadium-titanium batteries and vitamin K3, have not shown significant changes in performance during the first half of 2025, with traditional chemical products still supporting the company's fundamentals [25][26] Innovations and Cost Reductions - New processes at the Chongqing base have significantly reduced production costs for sodium dichromate, contributing to lower unit costs through increased automation and reduced depreciation expenses [28][29] Export Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported net export earnings of over 200 million, with a notable increase in exports of chromium-related products due to strong domestic demand and insufficient foreign supply [30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Zhenhua Convertible Bonds have shown a price increase and a notable premium rate, indicating investor interest and market activity [1] - Zhenhua Convertible Bonds have a credit rating of "AA" and a maturity period of 6 years, with a structured coupon rate increasing over the years [1] - The conversion price for the bonds is set at 8.2 yuan, with the conversion period starting on January 20, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co., Ltd. is recognized as the largest listed chromium salt company globally, with significant production capacity in Vitamin K3 [2] - The company operates high-tech production bases in Hubei and Chongqing, and it has established well-known brands in the industry [2] - For the first quarter of 2025, Zhenhua achieved a revenue of 1.0198 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.59%, and a net profit of 117.4 million yuan, reflecting a 37.27% increase [2] - The concentration of shareholding is relatively high, with the top ten shareholders holding 47.57% of the shares [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **chromium metal industry**, highlighting the surge in demand driven by **AI data centers**, **commercial aircraft**, and **European military needs**. The industry is expected to face a significant supply-demand gap, projected to reach **280,000 tons by 2028** due to limited capacity expansion caused by safety concerns [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Gas Turbine Demand**: The demand for gas turbines is rapidly increasing, primarily benefiting from the construction of AI data centers. The delivery volume is expected to grow by approximately **70% year-on-year in the second half of 2026** [2][4]. - **Commercial Aircraft Engine Orders**: There has been a substantial increase in commercial aircraft engine orders, but the delivery cycle is lengthy. The global commercial aircraft fleet is projected to grow from **1,266 aircraft in 2024 to 2,800 by 2028**, with a maintenance ratio of **40%-50%** [4][24]. - **European Military Orders**: European military orders are increasing, with Rheinmetall's military orders rising from **€23 billion to €60-105 billion**. However, this demand has limited impact on domestic chromium metal consumption [5][27]. Production and Profitability Expectations - **Zhenhua Co. Production Forecast**: Zhenhua Co. anticipates a steady increase in production from **940,000 tons in 2024 to 1,060,000 tons by 2028**. The net profit is expected to rise from **¥770 million in 2025 to ¥1.3 billion in 2027**, with a valuation level of **7.8 times** [2][7]. - **Chromium Price Trends**: The price of chromium metal is closely linked to the price of chromium ore. Recent price declines are attributed to raw material price drops and seasonal factors, but the price of chromium oxide remains stable, indicating a tighter market for certain products [8][37]. Supply Chain Dynamics - **Global Supply Chain Expansion**: Overseas companies like Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Power are expanding gas turbine production capacity, while Chinese suppliers are entering the global supply chain. Exports from the chromium industry have increased by **64% year-on-year** in the first half of the year [2][6]. - **Complexity in Production**: The production process from chromium ore to chromium metal is complex, particularly in handling sodium chromate and sodium dichromate due to the hazardous nature of hexavalent chromium waste [10]. Market Position and Future Outlook - **Global Chromium Production**: Global chromium production capacity is approximately **1.07 million tons**, with China accounting for **520,000 tons**. Major producing countries include Kazakhstan, Turkey, and South Africa [11][35]. - **Zhenhua Co. Future Prospects**: Zhenhua Co. plans to expand its capacity significantly, potentially increasing production by **40%** through acquisitions and operational improvements. The company is expected to generate substantial free cash flow and improve return rates [36]. Additional Insights - **High-Temperature Alloy Applications**: Chromium metal is widely used in high-temperature alloys for gas turbines and aircraft engines, with a growing demand expected in the coming years [13][14]. - **Export Growth**: China's chromium powder exports have surged, with a notable increase from **1,300 tons in 2022 to 19,000 tons in the first quarter of 2025** [34]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the chromium metal industry, its dynamics, and future expectations.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Insights - The chromium salt industry is expected to undergo a significant restructuring due to surging demand from the overseas gas turbine and military sectors, which will drive up the demand for metallic chromium [9][10][11] - The global demand for chromium salts is projected to grow from 930,000 tons in 2024 to 1,310,000 tons by 2028, representing a substantial increase [10][12] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcoming chromium salt market cycle due to its competitive advantages in production capacity and technology [10][11][14] Market Data - As of July 30, 2025, the company's current stock price is 14.41 yuan, with a total market capitalization of approximately 10,242.06 million yuan [6] - The company holds about 24% of the global chromium salt production capacity, indicating a strong market position [31][32] Demand Analysis - The demand for metallic chromium is expected to double from 23,000 tons in 2024 to 49,700 tons by 2028, driven by increased orders for gas turbines and commercial aircraft engines [11][13] - The military and aerospace sectors are also anticipated to see significant growth, with NATO countries committing to increase defense spending [11][12] Supply Analysis - The supply of chromium salts is constrained due to strict environmental regulations and the difficulty of expanding production capacity globally [10][30] - The report highlights that the chromium salt industry is facing a projected supply-demand gap of approximately 250,000 tons by 2028 [10][12] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 45.70 billion yuan, 53.88 billion yuan, and 61.81 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.66 billion yuan, 10.05 billion yuan, and 13.34 billion yuan [14][16]

Company Overview - Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co., Ltd. (stock code SH.603067) is currently the largest listed chromium salt company globally and ranks among the top producers of Vitamin K3 [2] - The company is recognized as a high-tech enterprise with production bases in Huangshi, Hubei, and Tongnan, Chongqing, and owns two well-known brands, "Minzhong" and "Chugao" [2] - Major products include sodium dichromate, potassium dichromate, chromium trioxide, chromium oxide green, basic chromium sulfate, refined sodium dichromate, chrome yellow, metallic chromium, ultra-fine aluminum hydroxide, and Vitamin K3 [2] Financial Performance - For the period from January to March 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 1.0198 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.59% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 117.4 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.27% [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 114.9 million yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 29.93% [2] Shareholder Structure - As of March 2025, the concentration of shares is relatively high, with the top ten shareholders holding a combined 47.57% of the shares [2] - The total number of shareholders is approximately 18,590, with an average of 27,390 circulating shares per shareholder and an average holding amount of 340,700 yuan [2] Market Activity - On July 14, XD Zhenhua's convertible bonds rose by 2.0% to 201.008 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 95.5918 million yuan and a conversion premium rate of 11.75% [1] - The convertible bonds have a credit rating of "AA" and a term of 6 years, with a coupon rate that increases over the years, starting from 0.20% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [1] - The conversion price for the bonds is set at 8.2 yuan, with the conversion period starting on January 20, 2025 [1]

Company Overview - Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co., Ltd. is currently the largest listed chromium salt company globally, with significant production capacity for Vitamin K3 [2] - The company operates high-tech enterprises with production bases in Huangshi, Hubei, and Tongnan, Chongqing, and owns well-known brands "Minzhong" and "Chugao" [2] - Zhenhua's main products include sodium dichromate, potassium dichromate, chromium trioxide, chromium oxide green, basic chromium sulfate, refined yellow powder, chromium yellow, metallic chromium, ultra-fine aluminum hydroxide, and Vitamin K3 [2] Financial Performance - For the period of January to March 2025, Zhenhua achieved a revenue of 1.0198 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.59% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 117.4 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37.27% [2] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 114.9 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 29.93% [2] Shareholder Structure - As of March 2025, the concentration of shares is relatively high, with the top ten shareholders holding a combined 47.57% of the shares [2] - The total number of shareholders is 18,590, with an average of 27,390 circulating shares per person and an average holding amount of 340,700 yuan [2] Convertible Bond Information - Zhenhua's convertible bond experienced a decline of 3.55%, trading at 198.886 yuan per bond, with a transaction volume of 104 million yuan and a conversion premium rate of 8.95% [1] - The convertible bond has a credit rating of "AA" and a maturity of 6 years, with a coupon rate that increases over the years, starting from 0.20% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [1] - The conversion price for the bond is set at 8.2 yuan, with the conversion period starting on January 20, 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The company, Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co., Ltd., has issued convertible bonds totaling RMB 406.21 million, with a maturity of 6 years and a face value of RMB 100 per bond [3][4][19] - The bonds were approved by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, with the first issuance date on August 2, 2024 [3][4] - The company reported a revenue of RMB 406,671.94 million for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.95%, and a net profit of RMB 47,287.64 million, up 27.53% from the previous year [19][20] Group 2 - The bonds have a tiered interest rate structure, starting at 0.20% in the first year and increasing to 2.00% in the sixth year [4][5] - The initial conversion price for the bonds is set at RMB 11.64 per share, with provisions for adjustments based on corporate actions such as stock dividends and capital increases [6][8] - The company has established a dedicated fund management system for the raised capital, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements and protecting investor interests [20][21] Group 3 - The company’s total assets increased by 18.98% year-on-year, reaching RMB 505,580.73 million by the end of 2024 [20] - The company’s net assets attributable to shareholders rose by 12.59% to RMB 315,899.40 million [20] - The company is engaged in the production and sale of chromium chemicals and related products, including sodium dichromate and potassium dichromate [19]

Summary of the Conference Call for Zhenhua Co., Ltd. Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to the metal chromium industry and specifically discusses Zhenhua Co., Ltd. [2][3][4] Key Points and Arguments 1. **Stable Metal Chromium Prices**: The company reports that the order price for metal chromium is stable at 75,000 RMB/ton, which is lower than the market price of 76,000 RMB/ton. This discrepancy may lead to market misunderstandings as actual execution prices vary by region, grade, and customer demand [2][3][4] 2. **Impact of Major Customer Purchases**: The operational landscape for the second half of the year will be influenced by large customer purchases, with expectations for deliveries in two batches. The company anticipates that production will normalize by the end of the month, allowing for sales at prices above 70,000 RMB/ton while still maintaining profitability [2][6] 3. **Market Sentiment and Price Volatility**: Price fluctuations in metal chromium are seen as expressions of market sentiment. The company emphasizes that the performance elasticity from metal itself is limited, with core profit growth driven by supply tightness in the compound sector [2][9] 4. **Upstream Compound Price Increases**: There are significant price increases in upstream compounds, with the execution price for metallurgical-grade chromium oxide exceeding 31,000 RMB. New orders signed last month were 20% higher than at the beginning of the year [10] 5. **Performance Elasticity Driven by Volume Growth**: For 2025, the company's performance elasticity is expected to be primarily driven by volume growth rather than price increases. The second quarter will reflect significant performance elasticity due to increased volume despite slow price increases [11] 6. **Concerns Over Industry Price Structure**: The company expresses concerns that expansion could disrupt the overall price structure in the industry. However, they believe that the difficulty in expanding upstream chromium salt production will prevent a quick resolution to supply-side gaps [12] 7. **Market Reactions and Future Expectations**: The company notes that recent market reactions have been exaggerated, and while they cannot predict future price increases, they have a clear understanding of potential declines [13] 8. **International Market Demand**: The international demand for metal chromium remains strong, particularly for high-temperature alloys and chromium-containing special alloys, despite some regional supply constraints [17] 9. **Current Order and Inventory Situation**: The company reports that there has been no significant change in order queues since June, with orders lined up until early August. The market for chromium oxide green remains stable, with some reductions in orders for metallurgical-grade products [20] 10. **Profit Margin Stability**: The company's gross margin for its three main businesses has remained stable between 28% and 29%. Recent data indicates a breakthrough in this range due to increased volume and cost control [25] 11. **Iron Ore Price Influence**: The recent decline in iron ore prices is expected to have a limited impact on the company's pricing strategy, as the overall market for iron ore remains stable [26] 12. **Future Performance Outlook**: The company encourages stakeholders to observe the performance in the second quarter and the supply-demand structure for metal zirconium in the second half of the year [35] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The company is actively pursuing expansion projects, including the relocation of its Chongqing base and the acquisition of Xinjiang Shenhong Chemical, with progress being made on administrative approvals [28][29] - The company is also developing a flow battery project, which is currently in the engineering capability stage [30][31] - The complexity of the supply chain from chromium salts to metal chromium is highlighted, indicating challenges in maintaining quality and supply stability [33] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of Zhenhua Co., Ltd.'s current position and future outlook in the metal chromium industry.

Group 1 - The report highlights the price increase of chromium oxide green and the frequent safety issues in the chemical industry, emphasizing the need to focus on capacity reduction in the sector [3][4][6] - The chromium salt industry is expected to experience significant opportunities as demand shifts from traditional low-growth applications to high-growth sectors such as AI data centers and aerospace [4][5] - The supply-demand tension in the phosphate rock market is anticipated to continue, with existing production capacity facing delays and increasing demand from lithium iron phosphate batteries [4][5] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of new materials in the chemical industry, which is expected to see rapid growth driven by policy support and technological breakthroughs [33][38] - Key sectors to focus on include electronic information materials, aerospace materials, and renewable energy materials, with specific companies highlighted for their strong positions in these areas [34][36][38] - The hydrogen energy sector is projected to lead global consumption in 2024, with significant advancements in renewable energy hydrogen production [39] Group 3 - The report on Li Auto indicates a slight increase in gross margin and a year-on-year profit growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 25.93 billion yuan [46][47] - The company has launched new models equipped with advanced driving assistance systems, enhancing its competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [49][50] - Li Auto's delivery volume is expected to grow in Q2 2025, with projected revenue between 32.5 billion and 33.8 billion yuan [50] Group 4 - The aluminum industry is experiencing a favorable macro environment, with potential easing of tariff pressures and improved inventory management during the off-season [54][56] - The report notes stable operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with a slight increase in production costs due to rising alumina prices [56][57] - Demand for aluminum in various sectors, including construction and automotive, is expected to remain stable, although some segments may face seasonal slowdowns [56][57]