Q&A 近期金属铬价格在 12 月份有所回落，能否解释一下原因？ 近期金属铬价格的回落主要有几个原因。首先，国家收储的节奏略微比预期慢 一些，为了清理此前囤积的低价库存，一些企业进行了主动降价操作。其次， 四川银河公司在此次国储中仅获得 2000 吨份额，而其实际生产能力可达 1 万 吨，因此为了维持生产和销售，其产品价格有所下降。此外，由于部分企业未 能达到国储收购标准，这些产品流入市场，也导致了价格回落。 金属铬价格评析与后市研判 20260106 摘要 国储收储计划实际签订 1.8 万吨，低于计划量，振华股份获 9,000 吨份 额，部分企业因标准问题导致产品流入市场，对价格产生下行压力。 短期内，四川银河和振华股份的设备检修计划预计将支撑金属铬价格， 国储采购价 64,000 元/吨构成价格底部，预计未来几个月价格在 75,000-80,000 元/吨区间波动。 冶金级氧化铬绿和六价铬需求强劲，前者受益于高温合金领域，后者受 益于液流电池等新兴应用，市场前景看好，预计价格稳中有升。 2026 年全年，预计金属铬价格维持在 75,000-80,000 元/吨，新增产 能与需求同步增长。冶金级氧化铬绿和六 ...

Summary of the Chromium Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the chromium industry, particularly the price trends and supply dynamics of chromium products in 2025 [1][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Price Trends**: Since early 2025, chromium product prices have been rising, especially a significant increase in metal chromium prices at the end of October due to unexpected state reserve purchases leading to supply tightness [1][5]. - **Supply Dynamics**: The second state reserve purchase exceeded expectations, with quantities close to four times the first purchase, causing a supply crunch and subsequent price hikes [5][7]. - **Demand Growth**: There is a notable increase in demand for high-temperature alloys and high-end manufacturing materials, with high-temperature alloy demand growing by 20%-30% [8][17]. - **Regulatory Changes**: The European Union plans to implement a critical raw materials law in 2026, requiring strategic reserves to reach 45% of annual consumption, indicating a global increase in demand for these materials [9][8]. - **Export Tariffs**: South Africa plans to impose a 25% export tax on unprocessed chromium ore, which may increase costs for Chinese chromium salt companies but is expected to have a limited overall impact due to China's market influence [10][11]. - **Chromium Salt Demand**: Chromium salts are primarily used in stainless steel production, which is expected to see stable demand growth [12]. - **Waste Treatment Improvements**: Significant advancements in waste treatment technologies have reduced waste output and eliminated hexavalent chromium, turning waste into valuable raw materials for steel production [13]. - **Environmental Challenges**: Stricter environmental standards pose challenges for smaller companies, potentially leading to production halts or market exits due to high compliance costs [15][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Volatility**: The chromium market has experienced significant price fluctuations throughout 2025, with notable increases in February, March, and October [3][4]. - **Future Supply Outlook**: The global supply of chromium is expected to remain tight, with low inventory levels across the supply chain, affecting the ability of major producers to meet market demand [28][29]. - **Strategic Stockpiling**: The state reserve's large-scale purchases are part of a strategic move to ensure supply security, influenced by international market conditions [7][6]. - **Technological Advancements**: Companies like Zhenhua and Yinhe have adopted new processes that significantly reduce waste and improve environmental compliance, enhancing their competitive edge [13][24]. - **Profitability Trends**: The chromium industry has seen fluctuating profit margins, with potential for improvement as demand increases and supply constraints persist [25][24]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the chromium industry, highlighting the interplay between supply, demand, regulatory changes, and technological advancements.

正信期货生猪周报 2025-6-23 正信期货研究院-农产品研究小组 政策引导下猪价偏强震荡 观点小结 | 生猪 | 短期观点 本周样本养殖企业商品猪出栏均重连续两周持续下降、标肥价差基本持平、大猪出栏占比小幅增加。 | 周度评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 据悉，在5月底相关部门召集头部猪企开会后，6月10日农业农村部也召开了生猪生产调度会，全国 | | | | 畜牧总站和各省农业厅参加。这次会议对各省提出了具体的生猪生产调控目标，主要政策包括：全 | | | 供应 | 国能繁母猪调减100万头至3950万头；优化生猪生产，加大弱仔淘汰力度，引导降低出栏体重，国储 | 偏多 | | | 收储体重要求降至115公斤；加强监测，地方也要将二育等情况纳入监测，每月向农业部上报各地能 | | | | 繁、存栏、均重、二育等情况。 | | | | 本次调控并不仅限于头部集团企业，而是面对整个生猪养殖行业的调控。目前头部企业已经做出表 | | | | 率，稳步降低能繁母猪存栏量，并明确了降重计划，未来2-3个月的时间里将均重将至120公斤。 | | | | 本周屠宰开工小幅下降，屠宰利润小幅下降 ...