1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Alumina - The alumina main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material side shows a seasonal recovery in bauxite mining in Guinea, but due to geopolitical conflicts, shipping capacity decreases and shipping costs rise, leading to only a small decline in bauxite prices. On the supply side, smelters have gradually resumed work, with the industry operating at a relatively high level, and the domestic alumina supply remains high, with a long - term oversupply. On the demand side, the geopolitical disputes in the Middle East limit electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the region, affecting global supply and reducing alumina demand in the Middle East, which may impact domestic export demand. Domestically, the replacement of electrolytic aluminum production capacity gradually ramps up, and the demand for alumina is stable. Overall, the alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of oversupply and stable demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The view is to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract fluctuates, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. On the raw material side, alumina prices rise due to geopolitical factors, while aluminum prices remain strong, and aluminum smelters still have good profit margins. On the supply side, the capacity replacement projects of electrolytic aluminum plants are gradually put into production, and with good smelting profits, the upstream operation is expected to remain at a high level, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is stable. On the demand side, the downstream operation has improved during the week, but high aluminum prices still suppress consumption continuity. Downstream aluminum processing enterprises mostly adopt a strategy of buying on dips, the market demand has slightly recovered, the downstream inventory has decreased, and the accumulation rate of electrolytic aluminum social inventory has slowed down. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and slightly recovering demand. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.65, a month - on - month increase of 0.0254, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are slightly converging. The view is to conduct short - term long trading with a light position on dips, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum main contract fluctuates downward, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. On the supply side, the price of scrap aluminum fluctuates upward with aluminum prices. Scrap aluminum holders mostly adopt a strategy of selling at high prices. Since recycled aluminum enterprises were actively purchasing in the early stage, they currently adopt a strategy of purchasing on demand, resulting in a mediocre performance in the scrap aluminum spot market. In terms of production, cast aluminum production dropped significantly in February and is expected to rebound significantly after resuming work in March, so the domestic cast aluminum alloy supply will increase. On the demand side, downstream die - casting plants, having replenished their inventories in the early stage, currently also adopt a strategy of purchasing on a just - in - time basis and mostly take a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in a dull trading performance in the cast aluminum alloy spot market. Overall, the fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of increasing supply and mediocre demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the green bars are slightly converging. The view is to conduct short - term long trading with a light position on dips, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,800 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,048 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The LME three - month electrolytic aluminum quotation is 3,364.50 US dollars/ton, down 27.50 US dollars, and the LME aluminum inventory is 440,325 tons, down 2,500 tons. The Shanghai aluminum main - second contract spread is - 135 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the alumina main - second contract spread is - 38 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 307,325 lots, down 3,577 lots; the open interest of the alumina main contract is 273,929 lots, down 6,625 lots [2]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 24,510 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,680 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the country is 25,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of AOO aluminum in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 24,960 yuan/ton, down 510 yuan. The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,405 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 290 yuan, down 200 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national alumina operating rate is 82.10%, down 0.39 percentage points; the alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina production capacity utilization rate is 83.00%, down 1.00 percentage point. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons. The average price of crushed primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 19,250 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 18,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. China's import volume of aluminum scrap and waste is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export volume is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons. The export volume of alumina is 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the import volume is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,540.20 million tons, unchanged. The electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 98.93%, up 0.04 percentage points; the aluminum product production is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 43.00 million tons, down 11.00 million tons. The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, unchanged. The National Housing Climate Index is 91.45, down 0.44. The aluminum alloy production is 182.50 million tons, unchanged. The automobile production is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 22.28%, up 0.28 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 31.29%, down 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money option is 22.72%, down 0.0190 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.68, up 0.0247 [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on seven aspects: supporting the construction of a strong domestic market; accelerating the cultivation and growth of new drivers; promoting high - level scientific and technological self - reliance; increasing efforts to improve people's livelihood; promoting new urbanization and regional coordinated development; accelerating the comprehensive green transformation; and strengthening financial scientific management. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes focusing on "two major" and "two new" areas, planning and implementing a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance. It will also deeply implement the "AI+" special action of central enterprises, accelerate digital and intelligent transformation, and create a number of emerging pillar industries according to the situation of each enterprise. It will also optimize the layout and adjust the structure of the state - owned economy around the "three concentrations" of state - owned capital. - The National Energy Administration data shows that from January to February, the cumulative social electricity consumption was 1654.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, with the growth rate 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Among them, the electricity consumption growth rates of the charging and swapping service industry and the Internet data service industry reached 55.1% and 46.2% respectively. - The "Fed whisperer" said that the Fed tends to remain silent this week, and recent shocks have become two - way factors. - US President Trump said he hopes to postpone his visit to China by about one month due to the war with Iran and has requested to postpone the China - US summit. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that China and the US are maintaining communication on President Trump's visit to China [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views - For alumina, the fundamentals may be in a stage of both supply and demand increase. It's suggested to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of both supply and demand increase, with seasonal accumulation of aluminum ingot inventory. It's recommended to trade with a light position by buying short on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamentals may be in a stage of both supply and demand increase, with downstream purchasing意愿 driving industrial inventory reduction. It's advised to trade with a light position by buying short on dips and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 25,240 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures is 2,865 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - The spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum is - 130 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between the main and the second - consecutive contracts of alumina is - 35 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 3,457 US dollars/ton, up 57 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 450,125 tons, down 2,250 tons [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy is 23,990 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 55,360 tons, down 540 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 25,260 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 25,100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan [2] - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is 26.51 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,110 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 20 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 19,000 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the average price of crushed raw aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 18,400 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan [2] - The export volume of alumina is 21 million tons, up 4 million tons; the import volume of alumina is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons [2] - The production of aluminum products is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 42.96 million tons, down 11.04 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of automobiles is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2] - The production of aluminum alloy is 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 23.39%, down 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 32.60%, unchanged [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai aluminum is 28.7%, up 0.0070; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.70, down 0.1340 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In February, automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales also decreased year - on - year [2] - The China Development Forum 2026 will be held in Beijing from March 22nd to 23rd [2] - The latest US inflation data in February met market expectations, but the impact of the oil price surge caused by the Iranian situation was not reflected [2] - G7 leaders discussed the Middle East situation and its economic impact [2] - The energy price surge caused by the Iranian war is reshaping the European Central Bank's policy expectations [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market shows a slightly bullish trend in the main contract, with decreasing positions, spot discounts, and weakening basis. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market has a slightly bullish main contract, decreasing positions, spot premiums, and strengthening basis. It is advisable to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The cast - aluminum market has a main contract that rises and then retraces, increasing positions, spot premiums, and weakening basis. It is suggested to go long on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum - related Contracts**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,765 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,942 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the cast - aluminum alloy main contract is 20,385 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai aluminum previous 20 - net position is - 9,281 hands, down 3024 hands; the LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, up 3300 tons; the spread between the main and the second - continuous contract of Shanghai aluminum is - 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,770 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,905 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast - aluminum alloy is 515 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 5 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 37 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Demand**: Alumina production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons [2]. - **Trade**: China's import of aluminum scrap and waste is 172,610.37 tons, up 12115.77 tons; the export is 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons; the export of alumina is 18.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons; the import is 9.44 million tons, down 3.16 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of electrolytic aluminum is 217,260.71 tons, down 30322.61 tons; the production of aluminum products is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 59.80 million tons, up 0.40 million tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period is 127,734 tons, down 765 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy is 163.50 million tons, up 9.90 million tons; the production of automobiles is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 6.46%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 6.04%, down 0.14%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money IV is 10.83%, up 0.0014% [2]. - **Ratio**: The call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.08, down 0.0424 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Central Bank Statements**: FOMC voter Goolsbee warns against a series of interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns; Daly believes that economic growth and labor are slowing, and inflation is lower than expected, suggesting further rate cuts [2]. - **Mining Incident**: Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia suffered a mudslide on September 8, leading to casualties and damage to mining facilities, and the mine is suspended, with potential production delays in Q4 2025 and 2026 [2]. - **Trade Policy**: Chinese Premier Li Qiang states that China will not seek new special and differential treatment in WTO negotiations, and hopes that the EU will keep trade and investment markets open and avoid politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues [2]. 3.8 Key Points of Different Aluminum Products - **Alumina**: The main contract is oscillating strongly, with decreasing positions and weakening basis. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is slightly increasing, but the demand boost is less than the supply growth. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main contract is oscillating bullishly, with decreasing positions and strengthening basis. The supply is stable, and the demand is boosted. The option market is bullish. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - **Cast - Aluminum Alloy**: The main contract rises and then retraces, with increasing positions and weakening basis. The supply is limited by raw materials, and the demand is slightly recovering but still weak. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position [2].