机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：贾梦迪 锅圈成立于2015 年，是中国领先且快速增长的一站式在家吃饭餐食产品品牌，门店数量达到万店规模 仅用了6 年。我们看好公司下沉市场社区央厨的定位和加盟模式，打造高性价比产品提高同店收入的潜 力，以及产供销一体化带来的经营效率的提升。给予目标价4.5 港币，首次覆盖给予买入评级。 产供销一体化，提升自产比例和效率。锅圈自2019 年起深耕供应链建设，截至1H25拥有7 家工厂，围 绕重点的火锅品类例如牛肉、肉丸、底料、虾滑、水产等做自产的布局，并采用单品单厂模式，提升上 游采购端的议价能力，优化生产成本与效率。加盟商的绝大部分产品需要从锅圈采购。公司与第三方仓 储物流商合作提高效率，大多数订单实现中央仓到零售门店的次日达配送。 盈利预测和估值。预计未来三年的收入增长主要靠新开门店驱动，锅圈的门店数量在经历调整后于 2H24 重回正增长，预计2025 年门店净新增1,000 家，门店总数达到11,150家，预计2026 年和2027 年开 店加速，分别净新增2,000 家和2,000 家。门店数量预计在2029 年底实现翻倍，达到2 万家，主要受益于 乡镇店的下沉和标准店的加密 ...

Group 1: Company Insights - The report initiates coverage on Mai Fushi (2556.HK) with a "Buy" rating, projecting a target market value of 18.65 billion RMB, indicating a 50% upside potential from current levels [2] - Mai Fushi's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of 2.31 billion, 2.97 billion, and 3.82 billion RMB for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 48%, 29%, and 29% respectively [13] - The company has a strong execution capability, with an average revenue per employee of 997,000 RMB in 2024, indicating effective operational management [13] Group 2: Industry Trends - The report discusses the ongoing trend of "residential deposit migration," which is expected to accelerate as the equity market's fundamentals improve, with A-shares currently positioned favorably [12] - The report highlights that the equity market is likely to become the next destination for residential asset allocation, as the previous "stock-property seesaw" effect is no longer a constraint [15] - The report notes that by Q4 2025, the real risk-free interest rate for residents is expected to decline significantly, which will further drive the migration of deposits into the equity market [15] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for Mai Fushi is characterized by a focus on mid-to-large enterprises, which enhances customer retention and bargaining power [13] - The report emphasizes the differentiation of Mai Fushi's products compared to competitors like Weimeng and Youzan, particularly in terms of comprehensive service offerings and a full-link marketing approach [13] - The report indicates that the AI commercialization acceleration is a key catalyst for growth, with a notable increase in KA customer numbers and order sizes [13] Group 4: Market Performance - The report notes that the A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with a significant increase in the Shanghai Composite Index by 5.46% over the past month [1] - The report identifies sectors such as black home appliances and animal health as having strong recent performance, with respective increases of 12.36% and 47.87% over the past month [4] - Conversely, sectors like medical services and aviation equipment have underperformed, with declines of 10.77% and 21.91% over the same period [4]