证券研究报告 | 2025年7月13日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 ➢ 根据马拉松资本《资本回报：穿越资本周期的投资》的观点，资本周期方法的关键是要理解一个行业内配置的资本数 量的变动将如何影响未来回报，换句话说，也就是观察供给方面的变化如何影响公司的竞争态势。传统价值/成长的二 分法存在问题。表现超过市场预期的公司有理由获得更高的估值。相比于分析供给，大部分投资者在分析需求上花更 多时间，但预测需求比预测供给更难。供给变动驱动行业盈利性，股价常常未能预见供给侧的变动。 ➢ 在企业生命周期的不同状态下，行业集中度呈现倒U型分布，先经历了供给侧的优化和高度竞争后的出清，随后集中度 走高形成垄断寡头格局，盈利也经历了类似的对称性分布。分红方面，随着企业从复苏期-增长期-竞争期-成熟期的演 化，股息率中枢不断走高。 ➢ 按照相对回报和绝对回报在历史 8 个阶段回报定位，根据一季报数据筛选得出的优势阶段行业和重点观察行业，按照 开支-盈利水平按照三季报的指引来定位，则可以发现行业集中度呈现 U 型分布。当前处于推荐阶段的二级行业有养殖 业、动物保健Ⅱ、元件、消费电子、通信服务、广告营销、电视广播Ⅱ、 ...

小红书如何讲好 预制菜"销字 经"？佛山这场 产业盛会有答案 _南方+_南方 plus 当今数字化时 代，如何用互联 网思维开展商品 营销，找到新的 生意增长机会 点，成为摆在传 统生产企业面前 一座大山。7月 18-20日，第三 届中国国际（佛 山）预制菜产业 大会（下称"产 业大会"）将在 佛山潭洲国际会 展中心举办，小 红书官方商业化 营销经理凝光将 在启动活动现 场，带来一众干 货分享，为预制 菜企业介绍小红 书平台营销实战 案例，为行业发 展提供消费决策 新路径。 小红书作为3亿 月活用户的"生 活百科全 书"和"消费决策 场"，正成为食 饮品牌营销的重 要阵地。通过真 意增长新趋 势"，分别从小 红书"特色食 品"流量趋势分 析、最新"特色 食品"赛道玩法 及政策、高效使 用小红书商业化 产品以及小红书 优秀实战营销案 例分享等方面开 展主题演讲，现 场将发布小红 书"特色食品"赛 道行业流量趋势 图，协助企业找 到蓝海赛道。同 时，现场"手把 手"教学企业如 何快速起号及找 实分享的内容社 区，小红书能够 为消费者提供深 度阅读体验，帮 助他们在众多产 品中做出选择。 此外，小红书通 过精细化分 ...

7月11日晚间，元隆雅图（002878）发布公告，因一位销售人员伪造合同，公司向公安机关报案并已收 到立案告知书。 据公告，经自查发现，元隆雅图一名在职销售人员涉嫌职务侵占，具体行为包括伪造客户公章和销售合 同，虚构销售业务，非法占有公司财产。为维护公司利益，元隆雅图主动向北京市公安局西城分局报 案，公安机关已立案侦查并对嫌疑人采取刑事强制措施。 根据初步调查，该销售人员伪造的合同涉及2023年、2024年及2025年第一季度的销售收入，具体金额尚 待公安机关调查确认。 同日，元隆雅图披露业绩预告，其中提到，公司自查初步发现该销售人员伪造合同行为对公司2025年第 一季度销售收入的影响约为2935.05万元。 元隆雅图称，上述情况可能会导致元隆雅图相关财务报表的收入和利润等会计科目的差错更正。该公司 表示，目前正在全力配合公安机关的工作，案件的具体金额将在调查后确认。公司目前生产经营情况正 常，上述事项未对公司日常生产经营造成其他影响。 元隆雅图业绩预告显示，预计2025年上半年实现净利润亏损500万元—1000万元，同比由盈转亏；扣非 净利润亏损800万元—1300万元，同比减少134.27%—155.69 ...

Group 1 - The company, Huayang Lianzhong, once held a leading position in the industry due to its first-mover advantage in comprehensive marketing services and served as the official communication agency for the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics, establishing itself as an industry benchmark [1] - The company has experienced continuous losses over the past three years, with a reported operating revenue of 2.031 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 63.07%, and a net profit loss of 547 million yuan, compared to a loss of 684 million yuan in the previous year [4] - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 175 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 72.18%, and a net profit loss of approximately 56 million yuan, compared to a loss of 47 million yuan in the same period last year [4] Group 2 - The company has been sued by Beijing Weimeng Chuangke Network Technology Co., Ltd. over an advertising contract dispute, with the amount in question totaling 43.23 million yuan, plus overdue interest of approximately 2.68 million yuan [2] - The company and its actual controller, Su Tong, received a notice of investigation from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for suspected violations of information disclosure laws, leading to public reprimands and significant fines for both individuals [5] - The company is currently gathering claims from affected investors who bought shares before January 14, 2025, and sold or held them after January 15, 2025, with the final claim conditions to be determined by the court [5]

天娱数科：预计上半年净利润1800万元-2600万元 同比扭亏为盈 智通财经7月11日电，天娱数科(002354.SZ)发布2025年上半年业绩预告，归属于上市公司股东的净利润 为1800万元-2600万元，同比扭亏为盈。公司数据流量业务较上年同期有所增长，同时加大各项降本增 效措施，对报告期业绩产生了一定的正向影响。此外，上年同期因部分参股公司权益法下确认的投资收 益对公司利润产生较大不利影响，而本期该等事项影响较小。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 出品：上市公司研究院 作者：云 据港交所6月25日披露，北京蓝色光标数据科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称：蓝色光标）向港交所主 板递交上市申请，华泰国际、国泰君安国际、华兴资本为其联席保荐人，募资主要用于缓解流动性危 机、支撑AI战略落地、拓展全球化渠道。 蓝色光标的营收规模虽然已经突破600亿元，但其媒体返点模式锁死毛利空间，核心出海业务约占营收 的80%，媒体采购成本吞噬95%收入，出海业务毛利率1.73%；整体业绩亏损；资产负债率持续攀升、 应付账款占比高企、经营活动造血能力差等因素影响下，使得蓝色光标于A股市场股价表现相对较差、 再融资难度也有所加大。 虽然蓝色光标喊出All in Ai的战略，但是公司的研发投入占比极低，2024年公司的研发费用率不足 0.1%，在此情况下，公司可否在港股市场讲通AI故事，仍存在极大未知。 挣扎在盈亏平衡线上：业绩亏损、盈利能力差、负债率持续攀升、应收账款占比超50% 蓝色光标是一家为企业智慧经营全面赋能的营销科技公司，成立于1996年，主要为不同行业的客户提供 营销解决方案，以满足客户全生命周期 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformative impact of AI technology on mobile marketing, marking a significant shift towards efficiency, precision, and creativity in the industry [1] - The company, Wanka Yilian, aims to leverage its unique position in the smartphone ecosystem to achieve a revenue target of 10 billion RMB within five years through a dual strategy of embracing AI and expanding overseas [1][8] - The company has established itself as a leading service provider in mobile game distribution, holding core agency qualifications with major smartphone manufacturers, covering over 90% of the mobile market [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, Wanka Yilian reported a revenue of 2.627 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.2%, with an adjusted net profit of 33.609 million RMB, up 3.4% [4] - The company’s partnership with Apple and Huawei has been pivotal, with Apple Store becoming a core agency since 2023, contributing to the expansion of its business into overseas markets [4] Strategic Direction - Wanka Yilian has outlined a strategic plan focusing on "AI + Overseas Expansion" to drive rapid business growth, aiming for a compound annual growth rate of approximately 30% to reach 10 billion RMB in revenue by 2029 [8][10] - The company plans to maintain its leadership in traditional advertising while expanding its overseas business, which is expected to match domestic revenue levels in the future [10] AI Integration - The integration of AI technology is seen as a key driver for the company's future growth, with plans to enhance its digital marketing services through three core modules: advertising engine, creative engine, and intelligent service [13] - The company aims to evolve from a platform-based model to an intelligent ecosystem, emphasizing the importance of continuous investment in talent and technology [7][11] Market Positioning - Wanka Yilian is positioned to capitalize on the global market trends, breaking geographical boundaries and reducing reliance on a single market, thereby creating a more robust growth trajectory [14] - The company’s deep partnerships with major smartphone manufacturers enhance its ecological collaboration capabilities, facilitating its transition from a mobile marketing expert to an AI-driven global intelligent service provider [14]

证券代码：603825 证券简称：华扬联众 公告编号：2025-084 华扬联众数字技术股份有限公司 关于前期会计差错更正及追溯调整的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ●华扬联众数字技术股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）本次前期会计差错更 正及追溯调整涉及到 2021 年至 2022 年度合并财务报表，不会导致公司已披 露的年度报告出现盈亏性质的改变，不存在损害公司及全体股东利益的情形， 不影响公司的正常生产经营。 公司于 2025 年 7 月 10 日分别召开了第六届董事会第十次（临时）会议以及 第六届监事会第八次（临时）会议，审议通过了《关于前期会计差错更正及追溯 调整的议案》。经公司自查发现以前年度会计处理存在会计差错事项，公司已对 相关会计差错进行更正，并对财务报表进行了追溯调整，涉及到 2021 年至 2022 年度合并财务报表。根据《企业会计准则第 28 号——会计政策、会计估计变更 和差错更正》和中国证券监督管理委员会《公开发行证券的公司信息披露编报规 则第 19 号——财务信息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the decline of Century Baijie, a major internet marketing company in Hubei, due to changes in Baidu's channel model, leading to the loss of its core revenue source and eventual bankruptcy [8][10][24]. Group 1: Century Baijie's Rise and Fall - Century Baijie, established as Baidu's provincial agent in 2003, thrived during the internet boom, achieving annual sales of 2 billion and net profits of 300 million at its peak [9][10]. - The company was recognized with multiple awards from Baidu, including the "Special Contribution Award" and "Annual Star of Baidu Bidding Ranking" during its prime [9][10]. - The shift in Baidu's channel model, which eliminated exclusive agency rights, marked the end of Century Baijie's profitable era, leading to its liquidation [13][24]. Group 2: Baidu's Strategic Shift - Baidu's decision to abolish the exclusive agency model across several cities indicates a significant transformation in its advertising strategy, moving towards a service provider model [13][24]. - The company's core online marketing revenue fell to 16 billion in Q1 2025, a 6% year-on-year decline, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing market share in the advertising sector [15][16]. - Baidu's advertising budget allocation has shifted dramatically, with only 5% directed towards Baidu, while 70% is now spent on competitors like Douyin and Taobao [16]. Group 3: Challenges in AI and Search Business - Despite investing over 180 billion in AI, Baidu has not established a clear competitive advantage, as evidenced by the decline of its AI product, Wenxin Yiyan, in user engagement [17][18]. - The company's search advertising business faces challenges from AI-generated content, which has reduced user engagement with traditional ads [20]. - Baidu's attempts to pivot into various sectors, including automotive and e-commerce, have not yielded significant breakthroughs, highlighting the urgency for innovation in its core search business [21][24].

7月10日上午消息，关于周杰伦入驻抖音是否涉及天价签约费的问题，外界一直存在诸多猜测。此前， 抖音官方曾否认九位数天价签约费传闻。从知情人士处获悉，双方的合作实际上并未涉及任何签约费。 另有娱乐营销行业人士透露，未来或涉及流量资源置换，此外平台有能力促成明星品牌代言、综艺冠名 等商业合作。(新浪科技) ...