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商品期货早班车-20251113
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 02:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodity futures, including base metals, precious metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. Market performance, fundamentals, and trading strategies vary by commodity, with some markets expected to be volatile and others to trend up or down based on supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical factors, and policy changes. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market performance showed prices oscillating strongly. Fundamentals include a pending US House vote on a government - shutdown bill and a Fed official's retirement, with a continued tight supply of copper ore. The trading strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset in the short term [3]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract rose 0.99% from the previous day. Supply is increasing as plants operate at high loads, while demand (weekly aluminum product start - up rate) is slightly decreasing. With a falling dollar index and overseas supply disruptions, prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and inventory changes should be monitored [3]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main contract rose 0.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand comes from high - load electrolytic aluminum plants. The market is in an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly, with attention on industry production cuts [3]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract rose 0.09% from the previous day. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, while overseas supply is increasing. Consumption is in the off - season, but LME inventory decline provides support. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [3][5]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract rose 1.18% from the previous day. Supply is stable, and demand from battery enterprises is slightly improving. Domestic inventory is low. The recommended strategy is range - bound operation [3][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 15 yuan/ton. Supply is shrinking as furnace - opening numbers decrease in the southwest, and demand is supported by polysilicon. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and it's advisable to buy on dips [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract rose 0.05%. Supply is expected to be tight in November, with demand from materials like lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increasing. It's recommended to buy on dips cautiously and avoid chasing highs, or consider selling put options [5]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract rose 1530 yuan/ton. Supply is decreasing, and downstream product prices are stable. November's production is expected to drop to about 120,000 tons. With the slow progress of the storage platform, it's recommended to wait and see [5][6]. - **Tin**: Prices oscillated strongly. The US House vote and a Fed official's retirement are factors, and tin ore supply is tight. The short - term strategy is to view it with an oscillating - upward mindset and watch the 300,000 - yuan resistance level [3][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Overnight prices rose significantly, with domestic silver hitting a record high and driving up gold prices. Fed personnel changes, inventory changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are the main factors. It's recommended to buy gold on dips and gradually reduce silver long positions [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract closed at 3030 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous night. Building material demand and production are both decreasing. The recommended strategy is to wait and see and consider shorting the 2601 contract [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract closed at 768 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night. Supply and demand are deteriorating marginally, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract closed at 1208.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous night. Iron - water production is decreasing, and the market is in a long - term premium structure. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and South American production is expected to increase. Demand from crushing and exports is improving. It's advisable to focus on the USDA report on Friday, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short - term [8]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices rose. Corn inventory is low, and demand from deep - processing is strong. New - crop production is expected to increase, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, with a wait - and - see strategy recommended [8]. - **Fats and Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil market fell. Supply in Malaysia is increasing, and demand is also rising. It's expected to continue inventory accumulation in the near - term and enter a seasonal production - reduction period later. The P structure is suitable for reverse spreads [8]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract closed at 5473 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The global sugar supply is expected to be excessive, and the domestic market may follow the downward trend after a short - term rebound. It's recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. Indian cotton production decreased, and inventory increased. Domestic cotton prices oscillated downwards. It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [8]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices both fell. Supply pressure is decreasing as production inventory drops, but demand is weakening after Double Eleven. Egg prices are expected to be weak, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. Pig prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and futures prices are expected to oscillate in a range [9]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply pressure is rising but at a slower pace due to new device production and import window closure. Demand is weakening as the agricultural film season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PVC**: The V01 contract closed at 4583, down 0.2%. Supply is increasing, demand is slightly improving, and inventory is high. It's recommended to short or do reverse spreads [10]. - **PTA**: PX supply is high, and PTA supply pressure is large in the long - term. Polyester factory load is high, and PTA is slightly de - stocking. It's recommended to take profit on long positions and short processing fees on far - month contracts [10][11]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract rose 0.56%. Raw material prices are supportive, and inventory is increasing. It's recommended to maintain an oscillating trading strategy and watch for raw material supply in the main production areas [11]. - **Glass**: The FG01 contract closed at 1049, down 1.2%. Supply is excessive, inventory is high, and demand is weak. It's recommended to wait and see [11]. - **PP**: The main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is increasing as new devices are put into operation, and demand is weakening as the peak season ends. It's expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and become more balanced in the long - term, and it's advisable to short at high prices or do reverse spreads [11]. - **MEG**: The East China spot price is 3981 yuan/ton, and inventory is accumulating. It's recommended to short at high prices on the 01 contract [11]. - **Crude Oil**: Prices fell sharply due to the OPEC monthly report. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is seasonally weak. If Russian oil production decline is less than 500,000 barrels per day, it's advisable to short at high prices [11][12]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract oscillated slightly. Supply is expected to improve marginally in the short - term but weaken in the long - term as new devices are put into operation. Demand is weakening. It's recommended to short at high prices or do reverse spreads in the long - term [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The sa01 contract closed at 1215, down 0.9%. Supply is stable, inventory is balanced, and demand from photovoltaic glass is normal. It's recommended to wait and see [12].
基差统计表-20250926
Mai Ke Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 08:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View - The report presents a comprehensive table of futures and spot market data, including base rate, changes compared to the previous day, current - month, next - month, and subsequent - month basis, contract prices, and spot prices for various commodities such as metals, agricultural products, energy, and financial futures [4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Metals - **Copper (CU)**: Base rate is 0.42%, with a current - month basis of 425, spot price of 82505 (SMM 1 electrolytic copper) [4]. - **Aluminum (AL)**: Base rate is - 0.05%, decreased by - 0.02% from the previous day, current - month basis is 5, spot price of 20770 (SMM A00 aluminum) [4]. - **Zinc (ZN)**: Base rate is - 0.43%, current - month basis is - 90, spot price of 21870 (SMM 0 zinc ingot) [4]. - **Lead (PB)**: Base rate is - 0.94%, decreased by - 0.20% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 120, spot price of 16950 (SMM 1 lead ingot) [4]. - **Tin (SN)**: Base rate is 0.20%, increased by 0.26% from the previous day, current - month basis is 550, spot price of 273700 (SMM 1 tin) [4]. - **Nickel (NI)**: Base rate is 1.08%, increased by 0.44% from the previous day, current - month basis is 1660, spot price of 124050 (SMM 1 electrolytic nickel) [4]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Base rate is 5.20%, decreased by - 0.41% from the previous day, current - month basis is 480, spot price of 9500 (SMM grade 223) [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate (LC)**: Base rate is 0.20%, decreased by - 0.55% from the previous day, current - month basis is 630, spot price of 73730 (domestic 99.5% purity) [4]. - **Gold (AU)**: Base rate is 0.32%, increased by 0.11% from the previous day, current - month basis is 0.25, spot price of 851.99 (AuT + D: Shanghai Gold Exchange) [4]. - **Silver (AG)**: Base rate is - 0.56%, decreased by - 0.10% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 17, spot price of 10353 (Ag(T + D): Shanghai Gold Exchange) [4]. Ferrous Metals and Related Products - **Rebar (RB)**: Base rate is 4.20%, increased by 0.22% from the previous day, current - month basis is 226, spot price of 3300 (HRB400: 20mm: Shanghai) [4]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC)**: Base rate is 1.85%, decreased by - 0.03% from the previous day, current - month basis is 0, spot price of 3420 (Q235B: 4.75mm: Shanghai) [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Base rate is 4.02%, decreased by - 0.26% from the previous day, current - month basis is 32.4, spot price of 837.9 (PB powder: 61%: Qingdao) [4]. - **Coke**: Base rate is - 6.98%, increased by 0.87% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 122.8, spot price of 1637 (quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse price: Rizhao Port) [4]. - **Power Coal**: Base rate is 11.78% (for Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal), decreased by - 0.84% from the previous day, current - month basis is 35.5, spot price of 1270 (Shanxi medium - sulfur main coking coal S1.3); base rate is - 0.25% (for Shanxi Q5500 at Qinhuangdao Port), current - month basis is - 94.4, spot price of 707 [4]. - **Silicon Iron (SF)**: Base rate is - 7.88%, decreased by - 1.75% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 406, spot price of 5330 (FeSi75 - B: Inner Mongolia) [4]. - **Manganese Silicon (SM)**: Base rate is 1.04%, decreased by - 0.38% from the previous day, current - month basis is 62, spot price of 6000 (FeMn68Si18: Hebei) [4]. - **Stainless Steel**: Base rate is 1.31%, decreased by - 0.27% from the previous day, current - month basis is 70, spot price of 13100 (B04/2B: 2.0*1219: Angang Lianzhong Wuxi) [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans**: Base rate is 1.30%, decreased by - 0.51% from the previous day, current - month basis is 66, spot price of 3980 (domestic third - grade soybeans: Harbin) [4]. - **Soybean Meal (M)**: Base rate is - 2.25%, decreased by - 0.21% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 67, spot price of 2900 (ordinary protein soybean meal: Zhangjiagang) [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal (RM)**: Base rate is 4.75%, decreased by - 0.47% from the previous day, current - month basis is 116, spot price of 2560 (ordinary rapeseed meal: Nantong) [4]. - **Edible Oils and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean Oil (Y)**: Base rate is 3.03%, decreased by - 0.18% from the previous day, current - month basis is 248, spot price of 8440 (first - grade soybean oil: Zhangjiagang) [4]. - **Rapeseed Oil (OI)**: Base rate is - 1.0%, decreased by - 1.50% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 102, spot price of 10040 (rapeseed oil: Jiangsu) [4]. - **Peanut (PK)**: Base rate is 10.57%, decreased by - 0.23% from the previous day, current - month basis is 830, spot price of 8600 (Baisha peanuts: Changtu) [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Base rate is - 0.56%, increased by 0.60% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 52, spot price of 9170 (24 - degree palm oil: Guangdong) [4]. - **Corn**: Base rate is 6.24%, decreased by - 0.05% from the previous day, current - month basis is 167, spot price of 2300 (second - grade national standard corn at Bayuquan Port) [4]. - **Corn Starch (CS)**: Base rate is 3.48%, decreased by - 0.21% from the previous day, current - month basis is not clearly shown, spot price of 2560 (factory - price corn starch: Changchun) [4]. - **Agricultural By - products**: - **Apples (AP)**: Base rate is - 7.65%, decreased by - 1.22% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 847, spot price of 7800 (Qixia and Luochuan paper - bagged apples above 80) [4]. - **Eggs (JD)**: Base rate is 17.04%, decreased by - 0.71% from the previous day, current - month basis is 228, spot price of 3600 (eggs: Cangzhou, Hebei) [4]. - **Hogs**: Base rate is - 1.05%, decreased by - 0.44% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 760, spot price of 12550 (three - way crossbred hogs in Henan) [4]. - **Soft Commodities**: - **Cotton (CF)**: Base rate is 11.48%, increased by 0.36% from the previous day, current - month basis is 1553, spot price of 15083 (cotton price index 328: Xinjiang) [4]. - **Sugar (SR)**: Base rate is 7.38%, increased by 0.23% from the previous day, current - month basis is 405, spot price of 5890 (white sugar: Liuzhou) [4]. Chemicals - **Methanol (MA)**: Base rate is - 3.54%, decreased by - 0.31% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 84, spot price of 2273 (methanol: East China) [4]. - **Ethanol (EG)**: Base rate is 1.39%, decreased by - 0.29% from the previous day, current - month basis is not clearly shown, spot price of 4305 (ethanol: East China) [4]. - **PTA (TA)**: Base rate is - 1.45%, decreased by - 0.24% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 68, spot price of 4610 (PTA: East China) [4]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: Base rate is 2.20%, decreased by - 0.31% from the previous day, current - month basis is 152, spot price of 7050 (Hangzhou Shaoxing Sanyuan T30S market price) [4]. - **Styrene (EB)**: Base rate is - 0.26%, decreased by - 0.22% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 50, spot price of 6940 (styrene: East China) [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Base rate is 1.38%, decreased by - 1.22% from the previous day, current - month basis is not clearly shown, spot price of 6460 (Fangxiang semi - bright natural white 1.56*38mm polyester) [4]. - **Plastic**: Base rate is 1.55%, increased by 0.04% from the previous day, current - month basis is 111, spot price of 7280 (Yangzi Petrochemical DFDA - 7042: Hangzhou) [4]. - **PVC (V)**: Base rate is 9.52%, decreased by - 0.36% from the previous day, current - month basis is 470, spot price of 5405 (calcium carbide method: East China region) [4]. - **Rubber (RU)**: Base rate is - 4.62%, increased by 0.63% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 720, spot price of 14850 (Thai - produced: Qingdao Free Trade Zone) [4]. - **20 - Number Rubber (NR)**: Base rate is 7.19%, current - month basis is 849, spot price of 13324 (Thai 20 standard rubber: Qingdao Free Trade Zone) [4]. - **Soda Ash (SA)**: Base rate is - 6.84%, increased by 0.04% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 90, spot price of 1225 (Shahe Chongqing market price) [4]. - **Urea (UR)**: Base rate is - 3.82%, decreased by - 0.06% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 64, spot price of 1610 (small - particle urea: Henan) [4]. - **Paper Pulp (SP)**: Base rate is 13.14%, decreased by - 0.36% from the previous day, current - month basis is 411, spot price of 5725 (bleached softwood pulp: Silver Star, Chile) [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil (SC)**: Base rate is - 4.02%, increased by 0.13% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 20.6, spot price of 470.9 (China Shengli: Pacific Rim) [4]. - **Fuel Oil (EU)**: Base rate is 8.59%, increased by 2.29% from the previous day, current - month basis is 248, spot price of 3135 (bonded bunker fuel oil 380CST: Zhoushan) [4]. - **Asphalt (BU)**: Base rate is 1.74%, decreased by - 1.44% from the previous day, current - month basis is 115, spot price of 3500 (heavy - traffic asphalt: market price in Shandong) [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU)**: Base rate is - 0.7%, decreased by - 0.72% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 7, spot price of 3424 (0.5% low - sulfur bunker fuel oil: Singapore) [4]. - **LPG (PG)**: Base rate is 5.41%, decreased by - 0.5% from the previous day, current - month basis is not clearly shown, spot price of 4498 (market price in Guangzhou) [4]. Financial Futures - **CSI 300 Index Futures (IF)**: Base rate is 0.69%, decreased by - 0.11% from the previous day, current - month basis is 8.5, spot price of 4593.5 [4]. - **SSE 50 Index Futures (IH)**: Base rate is - 0.03%, decreased by - 0.02% from the previous day, current - month basis is - 1.1, spot price of 2952.7 [4]. - **CSI 500 Index Futures (IC)**: Base rate is 2.44%, increased by 0.11% from the previous day, current - month basis is 48.1, spot price of 7341.3 [4].