电解铝行业分析及展望 20251211 摘要 预计 2026 年国内电解铝行业保持景气度和利润水平，受益于供给侧改 革和双碳政策，国内市场仍有发展空间，海外项目投产缓慢影响有限， 全年价格重心和高点预计高于 2025 年。 11 月下旬至 12 月上旬，沪铝价格最高接近 22,500 元/吨，沪铝补涨明 显，总持仓量创历史新高。海外供应扰动对铝价影响有限，国内供应弹 性不足，下游企业仍有盈利空间，多头资金持续增仓。 对未来几年海外新建项目持保守态度，部分项目因钢结构进口配额、电 力建设等问题面临不确定性，新增产能释放速度低于预期，对全球市场 供需平衡影响有限。 11 月份电解铝行业利润突破 5,000 元，创年内新高，前 11 个月平均利 润接近 3,850 元，为近年来最高水平，主要受益于铝价上涨和能源、电 力成本下降。 氧化铝价格持续下跌，已跌破 2,400 元，主要因为矿石供应充足，进口 矿比例增加。短期内供应没有太大问题，是近期氧化铝价格下跌的重要 原因。 Q&A 2025 年国内电解铝行业的利润表现如何？ 2025 年国内电解铝行业的利润创下历史新高。尽管价格在 11 月触及年度高点， 接近 22, ...

Group 1 - The company, Suotong Development, announced that as of the disclosure date, the total external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries amount to approximately RMB 15.926 billion, which represents 308.01% of the company's audited net assets for the year 2024 [1] - The actual guarantee balance is approximately RMB 7.439 billion, accounting for 143.87% of the company's audited net assets for 2024 [1] - The total guarantees provided to the controlling subsidiaries amount to approximately RMB 15.674 billion, which is 303.12% of the company's audited net assets for 2024 [1] Group 2 - The actual guarantee balance for the controlling subsidiaries is approximately RMB 7.186 billion, representing 138.98% of the company's audited net assets for 2024 [1] - The company does not provide guarantees for its controlling shareholders, actual controllers, or their related parties [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Suotong Development is as follows: the anode segment accounts for 95.62%, the cathode segment for 4.02%, and the capacitor segment for 0.99%, with inter-segment eliminations accounting for -0.63% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Su Tong Development indicates a significant reduction in the pledged shares by its controlling shareholder, which may reflect a positive outlook on the company's financial health and stock performance [1] Group 1: Shareholding and Pledged Shares - As of the announcement date, the controlling shareholder, Mr. Lang Guanghui, directly holds 72,473,022 shares, accounting for 14.55% of the total share capital [1] - Mr. Lang has released 10,120,000 pledged shares, which represents 13.96% of his holdings and 2.03% of the total share capital [1] - After the release, the total number of pledged shares by Mr. Lang is 17,830,000, which is 24.60% of his holdings and 3.58% of the total share capital [1] Group 2: Revenue Composition - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Su Tong Development is as follows: the anode segment accounts for 95.62%, the cathode segment for 4.02%, and the capacitor segment for 0.99%, with inter-segment eliminations at -0.63% [1] Group 3: Market Capitalization - As of the announcement, Su Tong Development has a market capitalization of 12.9 billion yuan [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Su Tong Development (SH 603612) held its 23rd meeting of the 5th Board of Directors on October 30, 2025, to discuss external investment and the signing of a joint venture agreement [1] - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Su Tong Development was as follows: the anode segment accounted for 95.62%, the cathode segment accounted for 4.02%, and the capacitor segment accounted for 0.99%, with inter-segment eliminations at -0.63% [1] - As of the report date, the market capitalization of Su Tong Development was 12.9 billion yuan [1]

Summary of Shenhuo Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenhuo Co., Ltd. - **Fiscal Year**: 2024 - **Key Financials**: - Pre-tax profit: 3.3 billion CNY - Total profit: 6.4 billion CNY - Asset scale: 4.3 billion CNY - Dividend per share: 10.8 CNY, accounting for 42% of net profit [3][5][6] Financial Performance - **Overall Performance**: Financial results met market expectations with a total profit of 6.4 billion CNY and an asset scale of 4.3 billion CNY [3][5] - **Tax Rate**: Current tax rate at 35%, expected to decrease to 25% in the future [3][4] - **Dividends**: Maintained at 10.8 CNY per share, with a commitment to not drop below 30% of net profit [6] Business Segment Performance - **Coal Segment**: - Core subsidiaries (Xinneng and Xinlong) reported total profits of 940 million CNY, impacted by production and price fluctuations [3][9][20] - Anticipated full production of 7.2 million tons in 2025, with costs expected to decrease but prices may limit profitability [3][20] - **Aluminum Segment**: - Guangxi Longzhou Xinxing Aluminum benefited from rising alumina prices, achieving profits of 618 million CNY [3][9] - Investment income from Xinde Group and Xinzheng Coal Power contributed approximately 300 million CNY and 90 million CNY, respectively [3][9] - **Investment Income**: - Q4 2024 investment income exceeded 300 million CNY, with Longzhou Aluminum contributing 200 million CNY [3][7] Challenges and Risks - **Aluminum Processing**: Facing weak profits due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and intense competition [19] - **Coal Price Volatility**: The coal sector is cyclical, with profits fluctuating significantly year-on-year [20] - **Cost Pressures**: Rising costs in coal production and potential price declines could impact overall profitability [20] Future Outlook - **Capital Expenditure**: - Ongoing projects in Xinjiang (400,000 tons) and Yunnan (110,000 tons) expected to conclude in H1 2025, with total investment around 2 billion CNY [15][16] - **Debt Management**: - Debt ratio has decreased to below 50%, with plans for further reduction [14] - **Market Conditions**: - Anticipated economic recovery may stabilize coal prices, with a projected profit margin of around 100 CNY per ton necessary for normal operations [20] Additional Insights - **R&D Adjustments**: Adjustments in R&D expenses were made due to discrepancies in expense allocation across subsidiaries, with no overall profit impact [13] - **Asset Disposal**: Losses from small coal mine resource integration amounted to 100 million CNY, with impairment provisions affecting profits by over 90 million CNY [3][12][9] Conclusion Shenhuo Co., Ltd. demonstrated a solid financial performance in 2024, with strategic plans for future growth despite facing challenges in the coal and aluminum sectors. The company is focused on managing costs, optimizing production, and maintaining a stable dividend policy while navigating market fluctuations.