银河期货 / 研究所 ◇ 航运研发报告 航运及碳排放日报 2026年3月2日 航运及碳排放日报 研究员: 贾瑞林 朗货从亚证号: F3084078 投资咨询证号: Z0018656 -部分 集装箱航运 -- 集运指数 (欧线) 第一 | 银 河 期 货 集 运 指 数 （ 欧 线 ） 日 报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 涨 跌 幅 | 成交量(手) | 増 減 幅 | 持 仓 量 (手 | 増 減 幅 | | EC2604 | 1,429.2 | 204.8 | 16.73% | 81,309.0 | 153.59% | 46,243.0 | 24.16% | | EC2605 | 1,637.4 | 232.3 | 16.53% | 2,063.0 | 1189.38% | 1,294.0 | 212.56% | | EC2606 | 1,885.1 | 255.5 | 15.68% | 16,174.0 | 256. ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2026 年 3 月 碳排放月报 专业研究·创造价值 全国 CEA 交易进入淡季 核心观点 根据上海环境能源交易所数据，截至到 2026 年 2 月 25 日，全国 碳市场碳排放配额(CEA)收盘价为 81.00 元/吨，较上月同期持平， 较去年同期下跌 9.75%。近 30 个交易日内，全国碳排放配额的平均 成交量为 46.3 万吨，上期平均成交量为 192.8 万吨，可见近期碳排 放现货市场活跃度下降，成交量均值月环比减少 146.5 万吨。 从能源价格来看，截至 2026 年 2 月 25 日，秦皇岛港 5500K 报价 727 元/吨，较上月底上涨 36 元/吨，较 2025 年底下跌 36 元/吨。近 期，虽然电力和非电行业用煤需求均表现疲弱，但受春节煤矿集中 休假和国内重要会议带来的安监影响，主产区煤矿产量阶段性收缩， 叠加印尼 RKAB 扰动引发进口担忧，短期内动力煤价格保持偏强走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 能源消费来看，2025 年 1~12 月，全国天然气表观消费量累计 4265.50 亿立方米，同比去年偏多 5.00 亿立方米 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Carbon Neutrality and Chemical Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the chemical industry in the context of China's dual carbon goals, specifically the 14th Five-Year Plan (14th FYP) and the transition towards carbon neutrality by 2060 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Carbon Peak and Neutrality Goals**: - China aims to reach carbon peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, with a specific target of reducing total carbon emissions by 7% to 10% after reaching the peak [2][4]. - The transition from intensity-based targets to total emission reduction is a significant shift in policy [4][6]. 2. **Policy Implementation**: - The 14th FYP emphasizes a comprehensive green transformation across all industries, moving from energy consumption control to carbon emission control [5][6]. - A carbon emission budget mechanism will be established at provincial and municipal levels, with specific targets allocated to each region [6][7]. 3. **Inclusion of Industries in Carbon Market**: - Currently, eight major industries, including power, cement, aluminum, and steel, are included in the carbon market, which accounts for 65% of national carbon emissions [7][8]. - By 2027, additional sectors such as petrochemicals, chemicals, paper, and construction materials will be integrated into the carbon market [7][8]. 4. **Carbon Management and Monitoring**: - Companies will be required to incorporate carbon management into their operational frameworks, with carbon emissions data becoming a prerequisite for project approvals [8][9]. - A product carbon footprint database will be established to track and certify carbon emissions associated with products [9][10]. 5. **Development of Zero-Carbon Facilities**: - The government plans to establish 100 national-level zero-carbon parks by 2030, with ongoing efforts to create zero-carbon factories in high-emission industries [9][10]. 6. **Market Mechanisms and Cost Implications**: - The introduction of paid carbon allowances is anticipated, with a gradual shift from free allocation to auction-based distribution [11][12]. - The carbon market will also facilitate voluntary emission reduction projects, allowing non-regulated companies to participate [12][13]. 7. **Impact on Chemical Industry**: - The chemical industry faces significant pressure due to its reliance on coal, which constitutes over 40% of its emissions [16][17]. - The projected carbon emissions from the chemical sector are expected to increase slightly, posing challenges for compliance with future carbon reduction targets [16][17]. 8. **Technological Innovations**: - The industry is encouraged to adopt renewable resources and improve production processes to reduce carbon emissions, including the use of Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) technologies [17][18]. Additional Important Content - The transition to a carbon-neutral economy will require a comprehensive understanding of the carbon footprint across various production processes, particularly in the chemical sector [17][18]. - The government is expected to monitor and adjust carbon emission allowances based on real-time data, although the current monitoring system is still under development [45][46]. - The dual carbon goals will necessitate a balance between maintaining industrial competitiveness and achieving environmental sustainability, particularly in coal-dependent sectors [38][39]. This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the conference call regarding the implications of China's carbon neutrality goals on the chemical industry and related sectors.

Group 1: Company Overview and Operations - The company has established biomass energy projects primarily operating under a combined heat and power model, with stable demand from downstream heating customers in food processing, paper, and pharmaceuticals [2] - The company is monitoring carbon emission trading policies, with an estimated potential of 150,000 tons of voluntary carbon reduction per year for a 35MW biomass project, based on pure power generation [2] Group 2: Future Plans and Investments - The company plans to increase investments in heating infrastructure for projects with high heating demand, aiming to boost heating revenue once projects stabilize [2] - There is a focus on attracting new users through targeted investment rules and collaboration with local governments, as well as exploring the industrialization of biomass material utilization [2] Group 3: Carbon Market Expectations - The company anticipates growth in the carbon reduction market as more high-energy and high-pollution industries are included, which will likely increase demand for carbon reduction [3] - The trading prices in the carbon reduction market are expected to fluctuate based on supply and demand dynamics, indicating significant development potential [3] Group 4: Risk Disclaimer - The information provided does not constitute a commitment or guarantee from the company or its management regarding industry forecasts or company development strategies, urging investors to make rational decisions and be aware of investment risks [3]

Core Insights - Germany's carbon trading revenue is expected to exceed €21.4 billion in 2025, marking a historical high [1] - All funds generated will be allocated to the Climate and Transformation Fund to support energy transition efforts [1] - Since the initiation of carbon trading in 2008, Germany's total revenue from this scheme has surpassed €100 billion [1] Emission Reduction Trends - The pace of greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Germany is slowing down [1] - In 2025, Germany's emissions are projected to be 640 million tons of CO2 equivalent, which represents a 49% decrease compared to 1990 levels [1] - However, the year-on-year reduction rate is only 1.5% [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the **coking coal industry** in China, particularly regarding supply and demand dynamics for 2025 and projections for 2026 [1][7]. Key Points and Arguments Coking Coal Supply and Demand - In 2025, China's coking coal imports decreased by **5.6% year-on-year**, with Mongolia and Russia accounting for nearly **80%** of the imports. The import structure shifted, with the proportion of anthracite, weathered coal, and thermal coal increasing, while coking coal's share dropped to **62%-65%** [1][4]. - The steel industry maintained high pig iron production levels, benefiting from increased exports of steel and steel billets, although profit margins for steel mills were low, below **36%** [1][5]. - The coking coal market is characterized by high volatility due to a significant proportion of independent coking plants, which are mostly private enterprises sensitive to price changes. The pricing mechanism is transitioning from quarterly to monthly [1][6]. Market Predictions for 2026 - Limited growth in coking coal production is expected in 2026, with a decline in steel industry demand leading to reduced coking coal consumption. The closure of non-mining washing plants may support commodity coal supply, with coking coal prices expected to rise slightly but with moderated volatility [1][10]. - The peak of steel consumption has passed, and a gradual decline is anticipated. Carbon emission trading will phase out outdated capacity and increase production costs, potentially raising the proportion of high-quality products and overall profits [1][12]. - Mongolia plans to increase coking coal exports to China, which could impact domestic supply-demand balance and increase volatility in the futures market. Monitoring changes in Mongolia's export levels is crucial [1][13]. Coking Coal Market Dynamics - The overall performance of the coking coal market in 2025 experienced a V-shaped recovery, with significant price drops in the first half due to oversupply, particularly from Shanxi province. However, a market reversal began in July, influenced by policy changes [2][3]. - The coking coal market's volatility is attributed to the high proportion of independent coking plants and their sensitivity to price adjustments. The transition to monthly pricing aims to better reflect market changes [1][6]. Cost and Production Insights - Production costs for coking coal vary by region, with costs in Henan, Hebei, and Anhui around **1,000-1,200 RMB/ton**, while some private enterprises in Shanxi have costs as low as **600-700 RMB/ton** [21]. - Despite nearing breakeven points, coking coal enterprises have not yet reported losses, and thus, there are no current reasons for production halts [20]. Inventory and Supply Chain Management - Steel mills and coking plants typically maintain a coal inventory of around **10 days**, with extreme cases dropping to as low as **3 days**, which poses operational risks [19]. - Coal production is generally stable throughout the year, with minor seasonal fluctuations influenced by market conditions rather than self-adjustments [15]. Environmental and Regulatory Impact - Environmental regulations have led to significant changes in inventory management practices, with large state-owned enterprises eliminating bulk storage and implementing measures to comply with environmental standards [25]. Additional Important Insights - The steel industry's seasonal demand patterns have become less pronounced, with traditional peak seasons showing reduced significance due to declining construction activity [15]. - The impact of Mongolian coking coal on the domestic market is notable, as it is priced lower than domestic coal, influencing futures market volatility and local pricing dynamics [22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, focusing on the coking coal industry and its interrelations with the steel sector and market dynamics.

Core Insights - The report indicates that the overall quality compliance rate of major agricultural products in China reached 98% for the first time in 2024, reflecting a positive trend in food safety [1][2][3] - The total food import value for 2024 is approximately $126.73 billion, showing a decrease of 9.5% compared to the previous year [1][10] Agricultural Production - In 2024, the national grain production reached 70.65 million tons, an increase of 1.6% from the previous year, marking a new milestone above 70 million tons [2] - The per capita grain availability increased by 25 kg compared to the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan, reaching 500 kg, which is above the internationally recognized safety line of 400 kg [2] - The annual vegetable production in 2024 reached 86.11 million tons, an increase of 11.2 million tons since 2019 [2] Food Safety Monitoring - The overall compliance rate for food safety supervision and sampling in 2024 was 97.04%, a slight decrease from the previous year [6][7] - The compliance rates for specific categories such as vegetables, fruits, and tea were 97.9%, 98.2%, and 99.2% respectively, with the overall compliance rate for five major categories reaching 98% [3] Food Industry Performance - The food industry maintained double-digit growth in investment, with large-scale food enterprises achieving revenues of 906.53 billion yuan, reflecting a 4.1% increase in industrial added value [6] - The food manufacturing sector, including beverages and refined tea, saw industrial added value growth of 5.8% and 4.8% respectively [6] Food Imports and Compliance - The main categories of imported food include vegetables and fruits ($24.94 billion), meat and its products ($23.05 billion), and seafood ($18.16 billion), accounting for 52.19% of total food imports [10] - In 2024, 4,200 batches of foreign food were rejected for not meeting national food safety standards, an increase of 78.12% from the previous year [11] Regulatory Actions - A total of 23 announcements regarding the prohibition and restriction of pesticides were issued, with 80 pesticides listed, including 56 highly toxic ones [5] - The report highlights the enforcement actions taken against food safety violations, including over 69,772 cases related to harmful substances exceeding standard limits [13]

Core Viewpoint - Tianfu Energy announced the approval of a proposal to sell approximately 640,000 tons of carbon emission quotas through the national carbon emission trading system, with the transaction price to be determined based on market trends [2]. Summary by Categories Company Actions - The company plans to sell carbon emission quotas via agreement transfer, single-item bidding, and other compliant methods [2]. - The management has been authorized to carry out the relevant work for the disposal of carbon emission quotas and to sign related contracts and documents [2]. Market Context - The sale will be timed according to the price trends of carbon emission quotas in the national carbon market [2].

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved a proposal to sell approximately 640,000 tons of carbon emission quotas through the national carbon emission trading system, with the transaction price to be determined based on market trends [1] Group 1 - The eighth board of directors' 18th meeting has passed the resolution regarding the sale of carbon emission quotas [1] - The company plans to utilize methods such as agreement transfer and single-item bidding for the sale [1] - The management has been authorized to carry out the necessary actions related to the disposal of carbon emission quotas and to sign relevant contracts and documents [1]

Core Insights - The national carbon emissions trading market in China has seen a cumulative trading volume of nearly 700 million tons and a transaction value of approximately 48 billion yuan as of the end of August 2024, marking a record high since the market's launch in 2021 [1] - The market's trading activity is increasing, with a daily average trading volume of carbon emission allowances rising by 43.55% compared to the previous compliance cycle, resulting in a total trading volume of 18.9 million tons and a transaction value of 18.114 billion yuan for the year 2024 [1] - The carbon intensity of electricity generation in China has decreased by 10.8% compared to 2018 levels [1] Market Developments - In March 2024, the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries were included in the national carbon emissions trading market, leading to the addition of over 1,300 new key emission units, which now account for over 60% of the total carbon dioxide emissions in the country [1] - The voluntary greenhouse gas reduction trading market has been introduced as a significant policy tool to achieve China's "dual carbon" goals, with the first batch of newly registered certified voluntary emission reductions starting trading in March 2024 [1] - As of the end of August 2024, the voluntary trading market has recorded a cumulative trading volume of 2.7061 million tons and a transaction value of 22.9 million yuan, with transaction prices exceeding 100 yuan per ton multiple times [1]