Battery Production - In April, global major companies' planned battery production totaled 170.79 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.64% and a month-on-month increase of 1.73% [1] - Domestic battery production in April reached 155.19 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 45.32% and a month-on-month increase of 3.74% [1] - Overseas battery production in April was 15.60 GWh, showing a year-on-year decrease of 14.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 14.75% [1] Domestic Battery Manufacturers - The leading domestic manufacturer C planned to produce 85 GWh in April, up 50.98% year-on-year and 3.66% month-on-month [1] - The second-ranked manufacturer B planned to produce 26.5 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 4.95% and a month-on-month increase of 1.92% [1] - The third-ranked manufacturer Z planned to produce 13.5 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.63% and a month-on-month increase of 5.47% [1] - The fourth-ranked manufacturer E planned to produce 12.94 GWh, showing an 82.51% year-on-year increase and a 4.02% month-on-month increase [1] - The fifth-ranked manufacturer G planned to produce 12.05 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 109.57% and a month-on-month increase of 7.11% [1] Lithium Iron Phosphate Production - In April, the total planned production of lithium iron phosphate by major companies was 14.4 million tons, up 57.38% year-on-year and unchanged month-on-month [1] - The leading manufacturer Y planned to produce 11.5 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 69.12% [1] - The second-ranked manufacturer D planned to produce 2.9 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23.40% [1] Anode Production - In April, the total planned production of anodes by major companies was 21.7 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.63% and a month-on-month increase of 3.83% [2] - The leading manufacturer planned to produce 5.7 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 50.00% [2] - The second-ranked manufacturer B also planned to produce 5.7 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.55% [2] - The third-ranked manufacturer S planned to produce 4.2 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 68.00% [2] - The fourth-ranked manufacturer Z planned to produce 4.1 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 46.43% [2] Separator Production - In April, the total planned production of separators by major companies was 2.105 billion square meters, up 47.20% year-on-year and down 0.24% month-on-month [2] - The leading manufacturer E planned to produce 1.235 billion square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 65.77% [2] - The second-ranked manufacturer Z planned to produce 470 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 88.00% [2] - The third-ranked manufacturer X planned to produce 400 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 8.05% [2] Electrolyte Production - In April, the total planned production of electrolytes by major companies was 115,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.12% and a month-on-month increase of 7.48% [2] - The leading manufacturer T planned to produce 81,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 60.40% [3] - The second-ranked manufacturer X planned to produce 34,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 70.00% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [11]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing internal rotation, with mid-term demand expected to continue rising. However, short-term price increases and negative feedback on demand may create volatility. If upstream supply issues ease, such as the resumption of lithium mica production by CATL, market confidence in demand may strengthen. Additionally, if industry production exceeds expectations or enters a peak season, price elasticity may increase, particularly for lithium carbonate, 6F, and iron lithium [3][30]. - In the mid-term, segments with stronger certainty and greater potential, such as separators, copper foil, and anodes, are expected to lead the market [3][30]. Separator Segment - The separator industry is entering a period of oversupply, with prices declining significantly, leading to reduced profitability for companies. The capacity utilization rate for wet-process separators is expected to recover positively due to sustained lithium battery demand [6][32]. - The penetration rate of wet-process separators is projected to increase, with expectations of a significant demand boost from the transition to 5μm products. This may lead to a tightening supply-demand balance and potential price surges in the future [6][42][50]. Copper Foil Segment - The copper foil industry is facing challenges due to supply-demand mismatches and technological iterations. However, the industry is at a cost support stage, with production expansion stagnating and profitability expected to recover as demand strengthens [8][58]. - The market for high-value low-profile (HVLP) copper foil is anticipated to grow rapidly, driven by high-frequency and high-speed requirements in AI servers, leading to a potential upgrade cycle [8][58]. Anode Segment - The anode segment is currently experiencing low profitability, with weak expansion intentions across the industry. Capacity utilization rates are expected to improve gradually, with potential catalysts needed for price increases, such as rising upstream petroleum coke prices or stricter energy consumption policies [9][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy industry [1] Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a price recovery, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 10% to 175,000 CNY/ton and lithium hydroxide prices increasing by 5% to 164,500 CNY/ton [1] - In January, domestic wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 790,000 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 4% and a year-on-year decline of 45% [1] - The report highlights a significant recovery in lithium battery production in March, with a month-on-month increase of 11% to 22% and a year-on-year increase of 37% to 56% [5] Summary by Sections Industry Insights - The global new energy vehicle market showed mixed results in January 2026, with Europe experiencing a strong growth of 25%, while China and the US saw declines of 4% and 25% respectively [4][31] - The demand for energy storage systems remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 65% in domestic installations in January, despite a month-on-month decline of 78% due to high base effects from December [5][39] Price and Production Trends - The lithium battery production chain is expected to see a price inflation cycle, with upstream resource costs impacting prices across the industry [3][14] - In February, the lithium battery supply chain experienced price fluctuations, with upstream prices rising while downstream prices faced pressure [6][47] New Technologies - The report emphasizes the critical phase for solid-state battery technology, with significant advancements expected in 2026, including the establishment of pilot production lines [6][15] - Sodium batteries are anticipated to see substantial market penetration in 2026, with expected production volumes reaching 20-30 GWh [15][18] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in lithium carbonate, separators, and solid-state technology, including Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Keda Li [7][26]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery supply chain has experienced significant price increases from 2020 to 2022, driven by strong demand and a smooth transmission of price hikes across the industry [2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - Electrolyte prices started at 70,000 CNY/ton in September 2020, rising to 100,000 CNY/ton by the end of the year, and reaching a peak of 580,000 CNY/ton in February 2022, with long-term contract prices stabilizing between 200,000 to 300,000 CNY/ton [2][3]. - Iron lithium cathode prices, including phosphoric acid iron and processing fees, doubled in 2021, peaking at over 40,000 CNY/ton by the end of that year [2][3]. - Anode prices began to rise in Q3 2021 due to graphite production constraints, increasing from 12,000 CNY/ton to a high of 25,000 to 28,000 CNY/ton by Q2 2022 [2][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded from a low of 40,000 CNY/ton at the end of 2020 to 50,000 CNY/ton in early 2021, and surged to 300,000 CNY/ton by the end of 2021, eventually reaching 520,000 CNY/ton by February 2022 [2][3]. - The battery sector has effectively transmitted raw material price increases, with battery prices rising by 1 cent/wh in Q1 2021 and accelerating to 2-3 cents/wh in Q1 and Q2 of 2022, reaching over 1 CNY/wh [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Current market conditions resemble Q4 2020, with expectations for continued price increases due to strong demand and low profitability levels compared to previous years [3]. - The industry's expansion willingness is significantly lower than in 2021, with limited new supply expected by 2026, suggesting a more stable price environment [3]. - The anticipated price increases are not expected to be as dramatic as in 2021, with supply-demand tightness projected to be lower, particularly for hexafluorophosphate and lithium carbonate [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The current valuation of leading companies is considered reasonable, with expected industry growth of 20% in 2027, suggesting potential for investment in the battery sector, including companies like CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others [4]. - Material leaders such as Keda Lithium and others are also highlighted as strong investment opportunities, alongside companies in the lithium carbonate sector [4]. - The solid-state battery sector is recommended for investment, particularly with catalysts expected to materialize in Q4 2025 [4].

Core Insights - BYD has filed an international patent application for a "graphite composite material and its preparation method, negative electrode, battery, and electric device" with the application number PCT/CN2025/079375, published internationally on February 5, 2026 [1] Patent Activity - In 2023, BYD has announced a total of 262 international patent applications, representing a significant increase of 495.45% compared to the same period last year [1] R&D Investment - For the first half of 2025, BYD invested 29.596 billion yuan in research and development, which is a year-on-year increase of 50.84% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium prices have increased by 46% this year, leading to an estimated rise of 32 RMB per kilowatt-hour in battery manufacturing costs [2] Group 1: Lithium Market Dynamics - Battery manufacturers are expected to pass most of the metal-related cost increases downstream and share some of the non-metal cost inflation [2] - Lithium demand is projected to remain resilient in the first quarter, with some traditional peak season demand potentially being released earlier [2] - Lithium prices may decline in the second quarter due to weakening electric vehicle demand, but could maintain high levels in the second half if energy storage system demand is stronger than expected [2] Group 2: Financial Outlook for Companies - The outlook for rising raw material prices in the short term is more optimistic, which is expected to improve the financial performance of lithium and cathode material companies [2] - The company maintains a 30-day downward catalyst observation for battery manufacturers and a 90-day positive outlook for lithium companies [2] Group 3: Industry Preferences - The industry preference ranking is as follows: lithium, lithium iron phosphate cathodes, batteries, electrolyte (lithium hexafluorophosphate), separators, battery components, nickel-cobalt-manganese cathodes, and anodes [2] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) has recently underperformed due to concerns over rising costs, weak electric vehicle sales, and selling pressure from capital flows, but this weakness is seen as a good buying opportunity in the short term [2]

Overall Viewpoint - This week, there were multiple supply-side events in the new energy sector: (1) Four ministries held a symposium on power and energy storage battery industries to regulate industry competition; (2) The "anti-involution" trend in the photovoltaic sector was influenced by market information, leading to a continuous decline in polysilicon futures; (3) Export tax rebates for photovoltaic products will be canceled starting April 1, 2026, while battery product export tax rates will gradually decrease to a cancellation by 2027. The new energy industry's "anti-involution" is inherently complex and challenging, with the state aiming to maintain international competitiveness. Balancing market and policy adjustments will evolve accordingly. Therefore, the direction of the photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" will not change, focusing more on execution coordination and method restructuring; the battery industry is more about preventive reminders against energy storage battery oversupply; the adjustment of export tax rebate policies is expected to optimize the supply side, potentially leading to a short-term export rush [4]. Investment Perspective - (1) Market enthusiasm is currently focused on commercial aerospace and space computing, with wind power stocks such as Goldwind Technology, Taisheng Wind Energy, and Mingyang Smart Energy, as well as photovoltaic stocks like Junda Co., Oriental Sunrise, and Maiwei Co., having accumulated significant price increases, detaching from their core business fundamentals, making it inadvisable to chase high prices at this time [4]. - (2) AI power: There is optimism regarding domestic computing power demand rebounding after the NVIDIA H200 release; the HVDC solution is expected to ramp up, and SST technology and collaboration progress are likely to materialize; this can also align with AI applications to form sector rotation; the capital expenditure situation for North American data centers in 2027 needs to be assessed during the US stock annual report period for risk evaluation [4]. - (3) During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, based on the dual benefits of China's future industries and the EU carbon tariff in 2026, there is optimism for the coordinated, large-scale, and advanced construction of hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol [5]. - (4) For energy storage/lithium battery upstream: The overall game on the lithium battery demand side is focused on domestic energy storage bidding in 2026; data on energy storage and vehicle terminals still need to be tracked, making it difficult to confirm or refute; the investment ranking for lithium battery materials is: lithium carbonate > lithium hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode; lithium carbonate prices still have upward momentum in the short term [5].

Group 1: Global and Domestic Battery Production - In January, global major companies' planned battery production totaled 161.04 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 3.8% [1] - Domestic battery production in January reached 142.44 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 39.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 4.2% [1] - Overseas battery production in January was 18.6 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% [1] Group 2: Domestic Battery Manufacturers - The leading domestic manufacturer C planned to produce 75.5 GWh in January, a year-on-year increase of 47.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.6% [1] - The second-ranked manufacturer B planned to produce 24.8 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.8% [1] - The third-ranked manufacturer Z planned to produce 12.4 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 96.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.1% [1] - The fourth-ranked manufacturer E planned to produce 12.19 GWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 61.7% and no month-on-month change [1] - The fifth-ranked manufacturer G planned to produce 12.05 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 84.0% and no month-on-month change [1] Group 3: Key Material Production - For lithium iron phosphate cathodes, planned production totaled 116,000 tons in January, a year-on-year increase of 30.3% but a month-on-month decrease of 16.5% [1] - For anodes, planned production reached 189,500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 42.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.3% [1] Group 4: Separator Production - Planned production of separators in January totaled 201,500 million square meters, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.2% and a month-on-month increase of 1.8% [2] - The leading manufacturer E planned to produce 114,500 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 77.5% and a month-on-month increase of 6.0% [2] - The second-ranked manufacturer Z planned to produce 46,000 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 119.0% but a month-on-month decrease of 2.1% [2] Group 5: Electrolyte Production - Planned production of electrolytes in January totaled 105,500 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 57.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.8% [3] - The leading manufacturer T planned to produce 73,500 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.6% [3] - The second-ranked manufacturer X planned to produce 32,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 68.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 3.0% [3]

Overall Viewpoint - The AIDC power/storage sector is experiencing a positive outlook, with North American AI chain focusing on light modules, liquid cooling, AIDC power, and AI storage. Recent developments in liquid cooling have opened up new opportunities for AIDC power overseas orders, and the 26H2 HVDC technology solution is expected to see increased volume. Collaboration related to SST is also anticipated to yield results. The overseas energy storage market remains robust, with the logic of electricity shortages in the U.S. unchanged, and a temporary easing of U.S.-China relations. The market is currently less sensitive to BBB and 301-related legislation, warranting continued attention to AIDC power and overseas storage sectors [4]. Group 1: AIDC Power/Storage - The North American AI chain is prioritizing light modules, liquid cooling, AIDC power, and AI storage, with liquid cooling trends enhancing the potential for AIDC power overseas orders [4]. - The 26H2 HVDC technology solution is expected to facilitate increased production, while SST-related collaborations are projected to gradually materialize [4]. - The overseas energy storage market remains favorable, with the U.S. electricity shortage logic still intact, and a temporary thaw in U.S.-China relations [4]. Group 2: Lithium Battery - Recent environmental assessments for the Jiangxia lithium mine and Tianqi Lithium's decision to not use SMM pricing have influenced the market, with several lithium iron phosphate companies announcing production cuts to strengthen pricing negotiations [4]. - Changes in the supply side of lithium carbonate and the "anti-involution" logic are enhancing price support expectations, leading to a recovery in the lithium battery sector during the spring market [4]. - The investment hierarchy for lithium battery materials is as follows: lithium carbonate > lithium hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode [4]. Group 3: Hydrogen Ammonia and Wind Power - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, hydrogen ammonia is viewed as a significant direction for new energy consumption and non-electric applications, supported by future industry prospects and the EU carbon tariff in 2026 [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the potential for coordinated, large-scale, and advanced construction of hydrogen ammonia projects [5]. - Although Goldwind Technology's stock has surged due to commercial aerospace trends, market expectations for hydrogen ammonia remain relatively low, indicating a need for continued focus [5].

Group 1: Macro Insights - Concerns about potential gold sell-off due to January 2024 Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing are limited, as historical instances did not significantly impact the market [2] - The US GDP growth rate rebounded in Q3 2025, driven by reduced "import rush" effects and increased net exports, with personal consumption contributing 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth [3] - By Q4 2025, US GDP growth may face pressure due to government shutdown impacts, but a significant rebound is expected in Q1 2026, reducing the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3] Group 2: Industry Research - The Hong Kong TMT sector is expected to experience a "Davis Double Play" in 2026, driven by valuation recovery, profit growth, and a return to core themes, with technology stocks as the main driver [5] - High-end manufacturing exports improved in November 2025 due to the fading high base effect and strong seasonal restocking demand, with recommendations to focus on companies like QuanFeng Holdings and Anhui Heli [6] - The lithium battery materials sector is anticipated to rebound, with high prices for hexafluorophosphate (6F) and a favorable supply-demand relationship, suggesting investment in companies like CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy [8] Group 3: Company Research - The report on Bomei Ke (603727.SH) indicates a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026, with expected net profits of 0.49 billion (down 81%) and 1.59 billion (down 59%) respectively, while maintaining an "Accumulate" rating due to ongoing high demand in the overseas oil service market [9]