1月全球主要企业预排产合计：161.04GWh，同比+34.4%，环比-3.8% 国内电池：1月国内主要企业预排产合计：142.44GWh，同比+39.8%，环比-4.2% 海外电池：1月海外主要企业预排产合计：18.6GWh，同比+3.3%，环比-0.3% 国内第1名C：1月预排产75.5GWh，同比+47.2%，环比-2.6% 国内第2名B：1月预排产24.8GWh，同比-5.6%，环比-9.8% 国内第3名Z：1月预排产12.4GWh，同比+96.8%，环比-6.1% 国内第4名E：1月预排产12.19GWh，同比+61.7%，环比持平 国内第5名G：1月预排产12.05GWh，同比+84.0%，环比持平 # 铁锂正极： 1月主要企业预排产合计116000吨，同比+30.3%，环比-16.5% 第1名Y：1月预排产90000吨，同比+36.4%，环比-18.2% 第2名D：1月预排产26000吨，同比+13.0%，环比-10.3% # 负极： 1月主要企业预排产合计189500吨，同比+42.5%，环比-1.3% 第1名B：1月预排产54000吨，同比+25.6%，环比持平 第2名S：1月预排产5300 ...

Overall Viewpoint - The AIDC power/storage sector is experiencing a positive outlook, with North American AI chain focusing on light modules, liquid cooling, AIDC power, and AI storage. Recent developments in liquid cooling have opened up new opportunities for AIDC power overseas orders, and the 26H2 HVDC technology solution is expected to see increased volume. Collaboration related to SST is also anticipated to yield results. The overseas energy storage market remains robust, with the logic of electricity shortages in the U.S. unchanged, and a temporary easing of U.S.-China relations. The market is currently less sensitive to BBB and 301-related legislation, warranting continued attention to AIDC power and overseas storage sectors [4]. Group 1: AIDC Power/Storage - The North American AI chain is prioritizing light modules, liquid cooling, AIDC power, and AI storage, with liquid cooling trends enhancing the potential for AIDC power overseas orders [4]. - The 26H2 HVDC technology solution is expected to facilitate increased production, while SST-related collaborations are projected to gradually materialize [4]. - The overseas energy storage market remains favorable, with the U.S. electricity shortage logic still intact, and a temporary thaw in U.S.-China relations [4]. Group 2: Lithium Battery - Recent environmental assessments for the Jiangxia lithium mine and Tianqi Lithium's decision to not use SMM pricing have influenced the market, with several lithium iron phosphate companies announcing production cuts to strengthen pricing negotiations [4]. - Changes in the supply side of lithium carbonate and the "anti-involution" logic are enhancing price support expectations, leading to a recovery in the lithium battery sector during the spring market [4]. - The investment hierarchy for lithium battery materials is as follows: lithium carbonate > lithium hexafluorophosphate > aluminum foil > separator > copper foil > anode [4]. Group 3: Hydrogen Ammonia and Wind Power - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, hydrogen ammonia is viewed as a significant direction for new energy consumption and non-electric applications, supported by future industry prospects and the EU carbon tariff in 2026 [5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes the potential for coordinated, large-scale, and advanced construction of hydrogen ammonia projects [5]. - Although Goldwind Technology's stock has surged due to commercial aerospace trends, market expectations for hydrogen ammonia remain relatively low, indicating a need for continued focus [5].

分析师点评 市场数据 2025 年 12 月 25 日 晨会速递 总量研究 【宏观】黄金权重下调，需要担忧么？——《光大投资时钟》第二十八篇 近期市场担忧明年 1 月彭博商品指数再平衡或带来黄金集中抛售，引发技术性调整。 但历史上看 2024 年和 2025 年也曾经出现类似情况，但对市场并未造成冲击。一方 面，指数调整涉及到的资金体量并不大，对市场流动性影响有限；另一方面，部分参 与者可能会提前预判甚至"抢跑"。考虑到明年 1 月金价上升势头或延续，市场成交 量或较为活跃，指数再平衡带来的技术性抛压影响相对有限。 【宏观】关税扰动边际消退，美国经济增速回升——2025 年三季度美国经济数据点 评 美国 2025 年三季度 GDP 环比增速回升，主要来自"抢进口"效应减弱、对美采购增 加下的净出口贡献，消费在关税扰动消退后也开始修复。其中，个人消费与净出口分 别拉动 GDP 增速 2.4 个、1.6 个百分点。从降息角度看，受政府停摆影响，四季度美 国 GDP 增速或再次承压，但基数效应下，明年一季度美国经济数据或显著上行，美 联储在 2026 年一季度暂缓降息的概率较大。 【债券】商业银行大幅增持利率债—— ...

Battery Production - In January, battery production is projected at 75-76 GWh, remaining stable month-on-month [1] - Another battery production line is expected to produce 23 GWh in January, reflecting a 15% decrease compared to the previous month [1] - A third battery production line anticipates a slight increase, with production at 13 GWh in January [1] Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) Production - LFP production is expected to reach 110,000 tons in January, remaining flat month-on-month [1] - Another LFP production line is set to produce 40,000 tons, also stable compared to the previous month [1] - A third LFP production line will produce 23,000 tons, maintaining the same level as last month [1] Separator Production - Separator production is projected at 450 million square meters in January, remaining unchanged month-on-month [1] Anode Production - Anode production is expected to be between 32,000 to 34,000 tons in January, remaining stable compared to the previous month [1] Electrolyte Production - Electrolyte production is projected at 73,000 to 74,000 tons in January, which is consistent with the revised figures from December, but shows a 5% decrease after the revision [1]

Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the power equipment and environmental protection sectors [1]. Core Views - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the application of green electricity and promotes the development of hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and energy storage, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in green energy sectors in 2026 [3]. - Domestic energy storage saw significant growth in November, with newly installed capacity reaching 4.51GW/13.03GWh, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 57.14% in power and 74.66% in capacity [3][7]. - The report highlights the importance of hydrogen and green fuels as new growth points, with expectations for increased investment in these areas due to supportive policies and market conditions [4]. Summary by Sections Energy Storage - Domestic energy storage is experiencing a boom, with November's new installations showing a 45.95% year-on-year increase in power and a 49.6% increase in capacity [3][7]. - The report anticipates that independent energy storage tenders will maintain a good level in 2026, supported by a complete revenue model through energy markets and auxiliary services [3]. Hydrogen and Green Fuels - The report suggests that hydrogen and methanol will play a crucial role in the non-electric applications of green electricity, with significant investment expected in these areas [4]. - The development of zero-carbon parks and factories is also highlighted as a key initiative for 2026 [3]. Wind Power - The report notes that in 2024, onshore wind power installations are expected to reach 75.8GW, a year-on-year increase of 9.68%, while offshore wind installations are projected to be 4.0GW, a decrease of 40.85% [8]. - The bidding capacity for wind power equipment in 2024 is expected to be 164.1GW, a 90% increase year-on-year [13]. Lithium Battery - The report indicates that the demand for lithium batteries remains strong, with December's retail sales of new energy vehicles expected to show a bright performance despite a year-on-year decline of 17% [19]. - The supply chain for lithium batteries is expected to stabilize, with ongoing negotiations for long-term contracts and price adjustments [22][23].

上一轮锂电周期的价格和 股价是如何演绎 2025-12-08 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 分析师及联系人 分析师 邬博华 分析师 曹海花 分析师 叶之楠 联系人 王晓振 SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 景气复盘：6F先行，碳酸锂持续，材料依次 02 股价复盘：景气周期看弹性，中期格局为先 目 录 %% research.95579.com 3 01 景气复盘：6F先行，碳酸锂 持续，材料依次 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 01 复盘丨6F：20Q4-22Q1大涨，报表有长单平滑 ➢ 上一轮6F从2020年中的7万开始上涨，2020年底散单价格达到10-12万；2021年8月底在碳酸锂温和上涨至10万的背景下，6F散单大 幅上 ...

关注公众号，点击公众号主页右上角" ··· "，设置星标 "⭐" ，关注 鑫椤储能 资讯~ 文 ｜朱玥 许琳 任佳玮 储能需求爆发的大背景下，制造业环节的盈利能力仍处于历史低位的情况是不合理和不可持续的。当 前终端IRR水平较高，预计可接受10-15分/Wh的利润让渡。我们预计2026年制造业环节价格将上涨 10-15分/Wh，税后对终端电站的成本上涨12分/Wh，这对于下游需求的影响是可控的，但中游制造 业利润将大幅增厚，看好储能需求驱动下，制造业上下游量价齐升、共振受益。 国内储能对上游涨价的可接受空间较大 经济性驱动下，国内储能需求旺盛，储能项目招标数据同比大幅增长。锂电部分环节（电芯、6F等）受需 求拉动出现涨价，市场中随之出现"涨价抑制需求"的质疑， 我们本篇报告将测算国内储能电站对上游涨价 空间的接受度，并对未来各环节利润分配进行展望。 以国内储能招标较多的省份（河北、甘肃、内蒙、宁夏、山西、山东、新疆等）为例，我们结合各省招标量 对主要省份的加权平均IRR进行测算。 在当前储能系统集成价格0.5元/Wh，EPC价格0.8元/Wh的假设 下，全投资IRR加权平均为9.58%，资本金IRR加权平均1 ...

12 月 A 股策略观点 - "策略周中谈"20251203 摘要 美联储降息预期波动和美元流动性收紧对市场产生影响，A 股受中美股 市联动影响，但强度偏弱，60 日均线构成阻力，市场情绪和量能指标显 示短期调整压力。 尽管短期市场面临调整，但长期慢牛格局判断不变，回调被视为布局机 会，半年线附近存在支撑，人民币强势和美元偏弱为 A 股长期走强奠定 基础。 12 月策略为择机布局，为跨年行情做准备，关注关键政策会议前市场调 整带来的介入时机，成交量缩至 1.3~1.6 万亿时是较好机会。 看好跨年行情，原因包括牛市状态下行情易发、机构对春季行情预期一 致、美联储大概率降息并停止缩表、十五开局之年政策期待增加等。 跨年行情中，看好电力设备、生物医药等科技成长板块，以及经济复苏 预期下的社服、食品饮料等消费板块，和有色、石油石化等顺周期板块， 以及国防军工等主题。 市场关注科技成长和资源品，科技成长领域关注 AI 应用、新能源（储能、 固态电池、核电）、创新药、机械设备、化工等板块，以及港股互联网 和商业航天。 新能源领域重点看好储能投资，包括正极、负极、电解液、隔膜、铜铝 箔等材料，以及六氟磷酸锂和 VC 等添 ...

Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant increase in investment enthusiasm for energy storage, with planned investment projects in Inner Mongolia's eastern and western regions expected to more than double compared to this year [1] - The capacity compensation policy is expected to be sustainable, supporting the ongoing demand for energy storage driven by high load growth and the continuous development of renewable energy [1] - Currently, battery components are identified as a tight link in the supply chain, with various lithium battery materials showing potential for continued price increases [1] Industry Summary - Energy storage investment is projected to see substantial growth, particularly in Inner Mongolia, with planned projects more than doubling year-on-year [1] - The demand for energy storage is confirmed by high growth rates in load and the ongoing development of renewable energy sources [1] - Key materials such as cathodes, anodes, electrolytes, separators, copper and aluminum foils, as well as additives like 6F and VC are expected to experience price increases, indicating a positive outlook for the battery and integration sectors [1] - The AIDC (Automated Intelligent Data Center) with energy storage is anticipated to provide certainty for high growth in overseas markets [1]

*风险提示：股市有风险，入市需谨慎 索通发展：公司是全球最大的商用预焙阳极供应商，截至2025年7月，公司预焙阳极在产产能346万吨， 计划2025年末预焙阳极签约产能达到约500万吨，负极产能8万吨，煅后焦130万吨，薄膜电容器超20亿 只生产规模。 天山铝业：公司拥有预焙阳极年产能60万吨，可以满足现有电解铝产能全部阳极碳素的需求。 *免责声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议 据百川盈孚数据，12月3日预焙阳极市场均价5638元/吨，较上一日大涨5.82%，并实现三连涨。今年下 半年以来，预焙阳极市场价格呈现阶梯式攀升走势，7月至今累计涨幅已超过15%。 证券时报表示，近期石油焦价格高位整理，最新市场均价为3115元/吨，部分负极焦价格继续上行。原 料煤焦油预计仍坚挺走势，短期波动不大，煤沥青市场偏稳整理。综合来看，原料成本仍旧维持高位水 平，对预焙阳极价格偏好氛围。下游需求方面，电解铝价格持续走高，开工产能稳中小增，开工产能达 4414万吨，对预焙阳极需求旺盛。近期新疆地区电解铝企业将继续释放新投产产能，预计行业理论开工 产能呈增加态势，对预焙阳极需求或有增量。成本高位叠加需求持续旺盛，预焙阳极价格或 ...