Core Viewpoint - CICC has raised the profit forecast for CITIC Financial Assets (02799) for 2025 and 2026 by 16% and 20% to 11.5 billion and 11.4 billion respectively, due to growth in equity business income and declining funding costs [1] Group 1: Profit Forecast and Performance - The company expects a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 12.5% to 16.3% for 1H25, estimating net profit to be around 6 billion to 6.2 billion [2] - Excluding the impact of the financial leasing company, the year-on-year growth is projected to be about 23.9% to 28.2% [2] - The company aims to achieve its strategic goal of "significant improvement in quality and efficiency" by the end of 2025 and to become an industry benchmark by 2026-2027 [2] Group 2: Revenue Growth and Investment - The expected profit growth is attributed to increased income from equity business and a decrease in financing costs [2] - The company has increased its holdings in Bank of China and China Everbright Bank, with a significant rise in main business income [2] - The company has confirmed a one-time investment income of 17.9 billion to 20.6 billion for 1H25, compared to a loss of 0.1 billion in 1H24 [2] Group 3: Financing Costs and Risk Management - The company has strengthened its financing capabilities, with financing costs decreasing year-on-year [3] - The estimated financing cost for 2H24 is 3.63%, down 20 basis points year-on-year and 17 basis points compared to 1H24 [3] - The company has reported an increase in impairment provisions, with a total of approximately 21.8 billion for 1H25, enhancing its risk resistance capacity [3] Group 4: MSCI Inclusion and Fund Inflows - The company will be included in the MSCI China Index, with adjustments effective after August 26, potentially attracting passive fund inflows of approximately 110 million USD [3] Group 5: Financing Authorization - The company's shareholders have authorized the board to issue new shares, with a limit of 20% of the total number of issued domestic and H shares, valid until the next shareholders' meeting in 2024 or the end of the 2025 meeting [4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月09日 中国中冶（601618.SH） 优于大市 毛利率筑底企稳，充分减值待转机 收入与业绩承压，充分计提减值释放潜在风险。2024 年公司实现营收 5520 亿元，同比-12.9%，实现归母净利润 67.5 亿元，同比-22.2%。其中 2024 年 第四季度公司实现营业收入 1394 亿元，同比-16.3%，实现归母净利润-0.85 亿元，单季度小幅亏损。在钢铁行业需求持续下降、建筑行业增长乏力等因 素的影响下，公司主动进行业务结构调整，充分计提减值释放潜在风险，营 业收入和利润均有所下滑。 海外新签合同额显著增长，固本强基优化业务结构。2024 年公司新签合同额 12483 亿元，同比 12.4%，其中新签海外合同额 932 亿元，同比+47.8%。从 业务结构来看，冶金建设作为公司"核心"业务板块展现较强的韧性，2024 年公司冶金建设收入 1091 亿元，同比-1.9%，受下游需求减少、业主回款恶 化影响，公司房建和市政基础设施工程业务收缩较多，实现收入 3923 亿元， 同比-17.3%。 毛利率底部企稳，研发费用支出减少。2024 年公司整体毛利率为 9.69% ...

随着贷款总额增加，工行、建行、农行、中行、交行和邮储银行六家 大型商业银行 （以下统称 "六大行"）近五年不良贷款 余额也持续上升 。 2024 年末工商银行不良贷款余额达到了 3794.58 亿元 ，建设银行和农业银行不良贷款余额也超过 3000 亿元 ，中国银行达到 2687.81 亿元 ，交通银行超过 1000 亿元 ，邮储银行也达到了 803.19 亿元 。 由于分母扩大， 六大行整体不良贷款率维持稳定 。除邮储银行外，其他 五家大型商业银行近五年 不良贷款率持续下降 ，与 2020 年末相比，五家大型商业银行 2024 年末不良贷款率均大幅下降（ 下降 幅度超过 20 个 BP ）。邮储银行 2024 年末不良贷款率比 2020 年末增加了 2 个 BP ，但近五年均控制 在 0.9% 以下， 整体不良贷款率在六大行中始终保持最优 。 | 银行名称 | 2020年末 | 2021 年末 | 2022年末 | 2023年末 | 2024 年末 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工商银行 | 1.58% | 1.42% | 1. 38% | 1.36% ...

Summary of Shenhuo Co., Ltd. Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenhuo Co., Ltd. - **Fiscal Year**: 2024 - **Key Financials**: - Pre-tax profit: 3.3 billion CNY - Total profit: 6.4 billion CNY - Asset scale: 4.3 billion CNY - Dividend per share: 10.8 CNY, accounting for 42% of net profit [3][5][6] Financial Performance - **Overall Performance**: Financial results met market expectations with a total profit of 6.4 billion CNY and an asset scale of 4.3 billion CNY [3][5] - **Tax Rate**: Current tax rate at 35%, expected to decrease to 25% in the future [3][4] - **Dividends**: Maintained at 10.8 CNY per share, with a commitment to not drop below 30% of net profit [6] Business Segment Performance - **Coal Segment**: - Core subsidiaries (Xinneng and Xinlong) reported total profits of 940 million CNY, impacted by production and price fluctuations [3][9][20] - Anticipated full production of 7.2 million tons in 2025, with costs expected to decrease but prices may limit profitability [3][20] - **Aluminum Segment**: - Guangxi Longzhou Xinxing Aluminum benefited from rising alumina prices, achieving profits of 618 million CNY [3][9] - Investment income from Xinde Group and Xinzheng Coal Power contributed approximately 300 million CNY and 90 million CNY, respectively [3][9] - **Investment Income**: - Q4 2024 investment income exceeded 300 million CNY, with Longzhou Aluminum contributing 200 million CNY [3][7] Challenges and Risks - **Aluminum Processing**: Facing weak profits due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and intense competition [19] - **Coal Price Volatility**: The coal sector is cyclical, with profits fluctuating significantly year-on-year [20] - **Cost Pressures**: Rising costs in coal production and potential price declines could impact overall profitability [20] Future Outlook - **Capital Expenditure**: - Ongoing projects in Xinjiang (400,000 tons) and Yunnan (110,000 tons) expected to conclude in H1 2025, with total investment around 2 billion CNY [15][16] - **Debt Management**: - Debt ratio has decreased to below 50%, with plans for further reduction [14] - **Market Conditions**: - Anticipated economic recovery may stabilize coal prices, with a projected profit margin of around 100 CNY per ton necessary for normal operations [20] Additional Insights - **R&D Adjustments**: Adjustments in R&D expenses were made due to discrepancies in expense allocation across subsidiaries, with no overall profit impact [13] - **Asset Disposal**: Losses from small coal mine resource integration amounted to 100 million CNY, with impairment provisions affecting profits by over 90 million CNY [3][12][9] Conclusion Shenhuo Co., Ltd. demonstrated a solid financial performance in 2024, with strategic plans for future growth despite facing challenges in the coal and aluminum sectors. The company is focused on managing costs, optimizing production, and maintaining a stable dividend policy while navigating market fluctuations.