Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The freight index futures fluctuated greatly due to the rapid change in the Middle - East situation. The market recovered today, possibly affected by the potential continuous impact of mine - laying in the Strait of Hormuz on navigation. Although the suspension of the Middle - East route may lead to an overflow of shipping capacity to other routes, the impact is limited, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply of shipping capacity on the European route remains unchanged. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may cause the index to strengthen periodically but is also prone to significant corrections. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March when approaching delivery, and there are opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The freight index futures fluctuated greatly due to the Middle - East situation. The market recovered today, possibly affected by the potential continuous impact of mine - laying in the Strait of Hormuz on navigation. After the Spring Festival, it is still the off - season for transportation. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The shipping capacity supply in March and April is still at a high level in the same period of history. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the European route, the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, which can continue to digest the shipping capacity pressure [7] - **Spot Price**: Leading shipping companies announced price increases in early February, but the prices in early March still mainly follow the late - February prices. The price increase in the off - season may be more for price stabilization and difficult to be actually implemented. Attention should be paid to the actual cargo - booking situation later [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may cause the index to strengthen periodically but is also prone to significant corrections. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices in the second half of March when approaching delivery, and there are opportunities to short - allocate off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7] 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: The China Export Container Transport Market was affected by the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation. The transport market faced challenges, the freight rates of relevant routes fluctuated sharply, and the comprehensive index rose. On March 6, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1489.19 points, a 11.7% increase from the previous period [8] - **European Route**: The eurozone's unemployment rate in January fell slightly to 6.1%, indicating a stable economic growth. However, the uncertainty has increased significantly recently. The war in the Middle - East has pushed up energy prices, and the US tariff policy is undecided. The European economy still faces many uncertainties. The transport market on the Asia - Europe route was basically stable this week, with flat demand and a slight increase in freight rates. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1452/TEU, a 2.3% increase from the previous period [8][9] - **Mediterranean Route**: The market situation was basically the same as that of the European route, and the spot - market booking prices continued to rise. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2360/TEU, a 2.4% increase from the previous period [9] - **North American Route**: The US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, better than market expectations. The employment market showed signs of stabilization. The US military operations in the Middle - East pushed up energy prices, which may lead to increased inflation pressure. The transport demand was weak this week, and the freight rates continued to rise. On March 6, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1940/FEU and $2717/FEU respectively, with increases of 4.5% and 1.0% from the previous period [9] - **Other News**: Trump said the war with Iran might end soon. The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz was increasing, and he considered taking over the strait. Affected by this news, US oil prices plunged. The G7 finance ministers held a phone meeting to discuss how to deal with the soaring oil prices. They basically reached a consensus not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the Strait of Hormuz was closed. Goldman Sachs estimated that European natural gas prices might rise by 130% and oil prices by $18 per barrel. The US Supreme Court ruled that some US tariffs were illegal, and China urged the US to cancel them [9] 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On March 9, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1545.46 points, an 82.06 - point increase (5.6%) from March 2; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1121.22 points, a 76.14 - point increase (7.3%) from March 2 [11] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Quotes**: The report provides trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2604, EC2605, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report includes charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][19]

Group 1: Report Core View - The price of EC2602 mainly depends on the spot market. It's difficult to predict the peak height and time of freight rates in January and the subsequent price - drop rhythm. At the current level, it's not recommended to enter the market [1] - The valuation of EC2604 is moderately high. In the short - term, it may follow the spot market or recover the basis. The strategy is to short on rallies. The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It's safer to short off - season contracts than peak - season contracts. Pay attention to shorting opportunities in the EC2610 contract [2] Group 2: Futures Market Data Futures Contract Prices and Changes - EC2512 closed at 1608.0 with a change of 0.13% and a decrease of 18.8, trading volume of 112 and open interest of 1714 (a decrease of 76) [1] - EC2602 closed at 1799.7 with a change of 0.22% and a decrease of 210.5, trading volume of 28762 and open interest of 34250 (a decrease of 66) [1] - EC2604 closed at 1164.5 with a change of - 0.04% and an increase of 424.7, trading volume of 6267 and open interest of 21254 (an increase of 264) [1] - EC2606 closed at 1320.0 with a change of 0.08% and an increase of 269.2, trading volume of 258 and open interest of 2126 (a decrease of 19) [1] - EC2608 closed at 1496.7 with a change of 1.06% and an increase of 92.5, trading volume of 112 and open interest of 1181 (a decrease of 12) [1] - EC2610 closed at 1059.0 with a change of 0.75% and an increase of 277, trading volume of 811 [1] Futures Spread Data - The spread between EC2512 and EC2504 was 443.5, with a daily - on - daily change of - 123.9, weekly - on - weekly change of - 191.7 and monthly - on - monthly change of - 1.8 [1] - The spread between EC2512 and EC2602 was - 189.9, with a daily - on - daily change of 4.4, weekly - on - weekly change of 59.5 [1] - The spread between EC2502 and EC2604 was 630.8, with a daily - on - daily change of - 17.8, weekly - on - weekly change of - 13.4 [1] Group 3: Spot Market Data European Line Spot Market - In Week 52, Maersk (MSK) opened at 2300 (a decrease of 100 compared to the previous week), and other companies mainly followed Week 51 rates. The central price was 2500 US dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market [3] - All shipping companies are raising the price of January cabins. Maersk's January upper - half price is 2500, and it will rise to 2600 in Week 2 to Hamburg, while prices for other ports remain flat. The central price of shipping companies' January quotes is about 2500 - 2600 US dollars [3] Shipping Index Data - The SCFIS (European Line) index on December 22, 2025, was 1589.20, up 5.21% from the previous period and 0.10% from two periods ago, updated weekly [1] - On December 19, 2025, the SCFI (European Line) was 1533, up 0.23% from the previous period and 9.86% from two periods ago, updated weekly [6] - On December 19, 2025, the CCFI was 1473.9, up 0.30% from the previous period and 9.98% from two periods ago, updated weekly [6] - On December 19, 2025, the NCFI was 967.55, down from 1067.29 in the previous period, updated weekly [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - At the current price level, it's not recommended to enter the market as it's difficult to predict the peak height, time, and subsequent price - drop rhythm of the freight rate in January [3]. - The valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, but it may follow the spot price or recover the basis in the short - term. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the near future [3]. - The far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It's safer to short the off - season contracts than the peak - season contracts. Generally, use a positive - spread trading strategy and pay attention to short - selling opportunities in the 10 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On December 25, 2025, the closing price of EC2512 was 1605.9, down 0.01%. For other contracts like EC2602, EC2604, etc., there were different price changes. For example, EC2602 was at 1795.8, down 0.60%, and EC2604 was at 1165.0, up 0.60% [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: There were also changes in month - to - month spreads. For instance, EC2512 - 2504 was 440.9, with a daily decrease of 7.1 compared to the previous day [2]. Spot Market - **European Line Spot Situation**: In Week 52, MSK opened at 2300 (down 100 from the previous week), and other companies mainly followed Week 51 prices. The central price was around 2500 US dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market. All shipping companies are raising prices for January cabins. MSK's January upper - half quote is 2500, and it will rise to 2600 in Week 2 to Hamburg, while other ports remain flat. The central quote of shipping companies in January is about 2500 - 2600 US dollars [4]. - **Spot Indexes**: As of December 22, 2025, the SCFIS (European Line) was 1589.20 points, up 5.21% from the previous period. As of December 19, 2025, the SCFI (European Line) was 1533 US dollars/TEU, the CCFI was 1473.9 points (up 0.23% from the previous period), and the NCFI was 1067.29 points (up 0.30% from the previous period) [2]. News and Geopolitical Factors - **Suez Canal**: On December 23, the Suez Canal Authority reported that two ships of CMA CGM passed through the canal [4]. - **Israel - Hamas Conflict**: On December 24, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office stated that Hamas violated the cease - fire agreement, and Hamas claimed that Israel's continuous attacks on Gaza hindered the peace plan [4].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The significant rebound of the container shipping index contracts on the day is mainly due to the better - than - expected Sino - US talks over the weekend. The short - term trade prospects have improved, and the supply concerns brought by the US line to the European line have been alleviated, which significantly boosts market expectations. However, the progress in the later stage is still uncertain, and the supply - demand fundamentals of the European line are weak. In the long term, container shipping prices may still be more likely to fall than rise. It is recommended to participate mainly from the perspective of short - term oversold rebound [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - The spot market changed little. The online quotes in the second half of May were basically the same as those in the first half. The significant rebound of the container shipping index contracts was caused by the Sino - US talks. According to the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement, both China and the US suspended the tariff measures upgraded after April 2, and the short - term trade prospects improved. But the long - term container shipping prices may be weak, and short - term oversold rebound is recommended [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - From May 6th to 9th, the China Export Container Transport Market was generally stable after the holiday, with different routes showing different trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year. - On May 9th, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index rose 0.3% from the previous period. In the European route, due to weak consumption and slow progress in US - EU trade negotiations, the transport demand was stable, and the spot market booking price fell slightly. The Mediterranean route's supply - demand fundamentals were better, and the market price was flat. In the North American route, China's exports to the US decreased in April, but the market price rose slightly [9][10]. - From May 10th to 11th, Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva. On May 12th, the "Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement" was released. The US will cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify the 34% "reciprocal tariff", suspending 24% of it for 90 days and retaining 10%. China will also take corresponding measures [10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On May 12th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased by 5.5% compared to May 4th, while that for the US West route increased by 10.2% [13]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: The report provides the trading data of container shipping European line futures contracts on May 12th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. All contracts rebounded significantly, with a maximum increase of 16% [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report presents multiple charts, including global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [20][23]