Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company Overview - The company discussed is Zhonggu Logistics, focusing on its performance in the logistics industry for the first half of 2025. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's non-GAAP net profit reached 1.072 billion yuan, with 1 billion yuan attributed to sustainable income, 750 million yuan from foreign trade, and 250 million yuan from domestic trade [1][5][2]. - The second quarter saw a decline in non-GAAP net profit compared to the first quarter, primarily due to lower domestic freight rates and a lack of asset disposal gains, which were 70 million yuan in the first quarter [1][3][4]. - The company's operating costs increased due to a reduction in loaded tonnage to 1.2 million tons, resulting in a year-on-year increase of over 10% [1][6][8]. Market Dynamics - The domestic logistics market experienced a 40% reduction in capacity compared to the previous year, leading to a contraction in domestic trade volume despite a slight recovery in freight rates [2][5]. - Conversely, foreign trade capacity increased by approximately 40% year-on-year, with leasing prices remaining high, contributing to better performance in foreign trade [2]. - The competitive landscape in the domestic market has stabilized, with expectations for freight rates to rise in the fourth quarter, driven by historical trends [9][10][11]. Cost Structure and Challenges - The mismatch between capacity and cargo volume has been a significant factor in rising costs, with a 15% increase noted in the first half of the year [7][8]. - Fixed asset depreciation has also contributed to increased costs per container, despite the company maintaining industry-leading efficiency [6][8]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates an increase in freight rates in the fourth quarter, contingent on demand stability [10][12]. - The foreign trade segment faces uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs, but the overall trend remains positive [10][12]. - The company has successfully signed long-term contracts for foreign trade vessel leases, with all contracts post-April 2025 being for two years or more [13]. Investment and Dividend Strategy - The company achieved a high dividend payout ratio of 84% in the mid-year report, with plans to maintain a minimum of 60% for the full year [16]. - Management is focused on exploring new business directions to achieve growth beyond existing domestic and foreign container operations [17]. Additional Insights - Demand for small vessels in the foreign trade market remains strong, with ongoing negotiations for potential deployment despite cost challenges [14]. - The company aims to enhance investor returns through improved dividend strategies and innovative business developments [16][17].

Report Overview - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - The peak of the peak season for spot freight rates has likely passed. This week, the SCFIS has further dropped below 2300 points, marking four consecutive weeks of decline. Airlines are lowering their August quotes, indicating that the spot freight rate has reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. Given the limited improvement in demand and relatively high supply during the off - season, this year's freight rates may be even weaker during the off - season. Investors should pay attention to short - selling opportunities in October (a traditional off - season) and long - short spread trading opportunities between December and October contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The peak of the peak season for spot freight rates has appeared. This week, the SCFIS has dropped below 2300 points for four consecutive weeks. Airlines are lowering their August quotes, and the freight rates are showing a weekly decline. The freight rate spot has likely reached its peak and is expected to decline in August. For example, many airlines have reduced their quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. The overall quotes for large containers are concentrated between $3100 - 3500, a decrease of $200 - 300 compared to the end of July. Historically, the peak of the peak season usually occurs in the third week of July, and the freight rates in late August generally return to the level of early July. Due to the limited improvement in demand and relatively high supply during the off - season, this year's freight rates may be even weaker during the off - season. Investors should pay attention to short - selling opportunities in October and long - short spread trading opportunities between December and October contracts [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Market Conditions from July 28 to August 1**: The China export container shipping market was generally stable, but the transport demand was weak. The comprehensive index declined slightly. The IMF raised China's 2025 economic growth forecast by 0.8 percentage points, mainly due to export growth. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 1 was 1550.74 points, a 2.6% decrease from the previous period [9]. - **European Routes**: The EU and the US reached a 15% tariff agreement, and the EU will increase its purchase of US energy products and investment. Although this avoids the escalation of the trade war, it may bring long - term economic costs to the EU. The transport demand was stable, and the market freight rate declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2051/TEU, a 1.9% decrease from the previous period [9][10]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand relationship was weak, and the spot booking price declined slightly. On August 1, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2333/TEU, a 3.5% decrease from the previous period [10]. - **North American Routes**: In June, the US durable goods orders decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, the worst performance since the 2020 pandemic. China and the US held economic and trade talks in Sweden, and both sides agreed to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days. The transport demand lacked growth momentum, and the spot booking price continued to decline. On August 1, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $2021/FEU and $3126/FEU respectively, decreasing by 2.2% and 7.5% from the previous period [10]. - **Other News**: Israel launched air strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah Port on July 21, further disrupting the port's operations. The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India. The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, with the EU increasing its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchasing US military equipment and $750 billion worth of US energy products [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices** - **SCFIS**: From July 28 to August 4, the SCFIS for European routes decreased from 2316.56 to 2297.86, a 0.8% decrease; the SCFIS for US West routes decreased from 1284.01 to 1130.12, a 12.0% decrease [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Quotes** - **Contract Data**: On August 7, different contracts of container shipping European routes futures showed different trends in prices, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract had a closing price of 1420.4, a decrease of 14.0 from the previous settlement price, and a trading volume of 26142 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The top of the freight rate for the 8 - month contract has likely appeared, and it is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the freight rate follow - up of other shipping companies, especially whether the PA Alliance will adjust prices [4]. - The 10 - month contract is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The uncertainty lies in the possible resumption of the Suez Canal [5]. - In December, the freight rate of the Far East - Europe route is usually higher than that in October. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation, which may challenge the seasonal pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - Online quotes of different alliances for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary by shipping company and shipping period. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's price for week 29 is 1785/2990; in the MSC + Premier Alliance, MSC's 7 - month upper - half - month shipping period quote is 2180/3640 [1]. II. Geopolitical Situation - The Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched a joint military operation on the 7th, using missiles and drones to attack important targets in Israel in response to the Israeli army's attacks on Yemeni ports and power stations [2]. III. Shipping Capacity - The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining 4 weeks of July is 294,100 TEU, and the monthly average weekly shipping capacity in August is 305,000 TEU. There are 5 blank sailings in July and 2 in August [3]. IV. Contract Analysis - **8 - month contract**: The freight rate is likely to peak and decline. The top of the freight rate has probably emerged, and the current market average price in the first half of July is around $3300/FEU. The settlement price of the 8 - month contract is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - **10 - month contract**: It is an off - season contract mainly for short - allocation. The focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. The uncertainty is whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation before October [5]. - **12 - month contract**: In normal years, the price in December is generally more than 10% higher than that in October. The risk is the possible resumption of the Suez Canal [7]. V. Shipping Futures and Spot Prices - As of July 8, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 80,726.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 30,740.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1323.90 and EC2508 at 1888.50 [7]. - On July 4, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was $2101.00/TEU, and on July 7, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 2258.04 points [7]. VI. Container Ship Delivery - 2025 is a big year for container ship deliveries. As of July 6, 2025, 141 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 11.12 million TEU [8]. VII. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The main contract fluctuates. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the 12 - month contract and short on the 10 - month contract, and short on the 10 - month contract [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9] Core Views - The demand for oil transportation is gradually being validated due to increased production in the Middle East, with expectations for improved performance in Q2 2025 [9] - The company reported a revenue of 5.595 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.53%, and a net profit of approximately 865 million yuan, down 37.07% year-on-year [5][6] - The report anticipates a recovery in oil tanker performance in Q2 2025, driven by rising average freight rates [6][9] Financial Data Summary - For Q1 2025, the oil tanker segment contributed a net profit of 487 million yuan, down 44.02% year-on-year, while the dry bulk segment saw a net profit of 159 million yuan, down 55.46% year-on-year [6] - The company expects a total revenue of 28.61 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.9% [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 6.501 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.3% [8][11]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a container shipping daily report dated March 31, 2025, released by the shipping research team [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The market has a bullish sentiment towards future freight rates, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Risk - takers can attempt a short - term rebound strategy with a light position [2] - The core logic for this year's shipping market lies in international tariff policies. In April, the US will re - evaluate tariff policies with Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding significant uncertainties to the shipping market [3] - It is necessary to focus on the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3] Group 4: Freight Index Analysis SCFIS and NCFI - On March 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1506.17 points, down 3.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1260.05 points, down 16.4% from the previous period [2] - On March 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 983.01 points, up 12.89% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 866.25 points, down 0.65% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1524.4 points, up 49.83% from the previous period [2] SCFI and CCFI - On March 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1356.88 points, up 64.13 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1318 USD/TEU, up 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2177 USD/FEU, up 16.3% from the previous period [2] - On March 28, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1111.71 points, down 3.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1526.99 points, down 3.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 806.01 points, down 6.3% from the previous period [2] Group 5: PMI and Investor Confidence Index Eurozone - The Eurozone's March manufacturing PMI flash was 48.7 (expected 48.2); the March services PMI flash was 50.4 (expected 51). The March composite PMI flash rose to 50.4, the highest since August [2] - The Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous - 12.7) [2] China - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment. China's February Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in three months, and the employment contraction rate slowed significantly [2] US - The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the March services PMI flash was 54.3, the highest in three months; the March composite PMI flash was 53.5, the highest in three months [3] Group 6: Trading Strategies Short - term Strategy - Risk - takers can try to enter the market at the 1900 - 2000 range of the 2508 contract for a short - term rebound in the peak - season contract and set stop - losses [3] Arbitrage Strategy - Due to the recurrence of geopolitical conflicts and the basic determination of tariff policies, the arbitrage structure is currently chaotic, with short windows and large fluctuations. All positions have been advised to take profits [3] Long - term Strategy - All long - term positions in far - month contracts have been advised to take profits. It is recommended to wait until the price war situation in March becomes clear and the far - month contracts adjust to appropriate prices before making new arrangements [3] Group 7: Contract Information - The daily limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 16% [3] - The company's margin requirement for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 26% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [3] - On March 28, the main contract 2506 closed at 2288.0, up 6.14%, with a trading volume of 64,100 lots and an open interest of 34,800 lots, an increase of 811 lots from the previous day [3] Group 8: Geopolitical and Policy Factors - The US trade protectionist policies introduced by Trump have increased global economic uncertainties, and the US - EU trade war may harm both sides [4] - The Palestine - Israel conflict continues, and the delay in the cease - fire agreement negotiation adds uncertainties to the shipping market [3]