证 券 研 究 报 告 吉利汽车（00175.HK）2 月销量点评 强推（维持） 1+2 月出口表现强劲 事项： 吉利汽车发布 2 月销量，公司实现销量 20.6 万辆，同比+0.6%，环比-23.7%。 其中银河品牌销量 7.3 万辆，同比-3.9%，环比-11.9%；领克品牌 2.7 万辆，同 比+59%，环比-5.3%；极氪 2.4 万辆，同比+70%，环比+0.1%。其中，内销 14.5 万辆，同比-19%，环比-31%；出口 6.1 万辆，同比+1.4 倍、环比+0.6%。 评论： [主要财务指标 Indicator_FinchinaSimpleHK] | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 241,099 | 348,925 | 428,959 | 479,364 | | 同比增速(%) | 33.5% | 44.7% | 22.9% | 11.8% | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 16,632 | 17,402 | 25,046 | 27,813 | | 同比增速(%) ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile Holdings Limited reported its unaudited sales data for February 2026, showing a total vehicle sales of 206,160 units, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 1% [2]. Brand Performance - Geely brand sales in February were 154,934 units, a decrease of 11% compared to the same month last year [3]. - The Galaxy series under the Geely brand sold 73,125 units, down 4% year-on-year [3]. - Lynk & Co brand sales reached 27,359 units, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 59% [2][3]. - Zeekr brand sales were 23,867 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 70% [2][3]. New Energy Vehicles - Sales of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) in February totaled 67,832 units, a decline of 6% compared to the previous year [2][3]. - Sales of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) reached 49,656 units, showing a substantial year-on-year increase of 89% [2][3]. Export Performance - The group's export volume in February was 60,879 units, representing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 138% [2][3]. - Cumulative exports for the year reached 121,385 units, up 129% compared to the same period last year [2][3]. Proton Sales - Proton achieved sales of 14,286 units in February 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 14% [2]. - Cumulative sales for the first two months of 2026 reached 30,392 units, an increase of about 25% compared to the same period last year [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile (0175.HK) [5] Core Views - The company is experiencing growth driven by both plug-in hybrid and export sales, with Zeekr leading the growth [9] - The report highlights a differentiated development in the new energy sector, with plug-in hybrid vehicles showing a 37% year-on-year increase, while pure electric vehicle sales declined by 15% [9] - The export market has seen a significant increase of 121% year-on-year, indicating a successful transition from simple product exports to localized operations [9] - The establishment of a joint venture for core technology research and testing services is expected to enhance long-term competitiveness [9] Financial Forecasts and Indicators - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 240,194 million, 404,783 million, 489,688 million, and 572,828 million RMB respectively, with growth rates of 34.0%, 68.5%, 21.0%, and 17.0% [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 16,632 million, 16,208 million, 22,085 million, and 25,971 million RMB, with growth rates of 213.3%, -2.6%, 36.3%, and 17.6% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.53, 1.49, 2.03, and 2.38 RMB for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to be 10, 10, 7, and 6 for the respective years [4] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected at 1.8, 1.6, 1.3, and 1.1 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Geely's overall sales performance in January showed mixed results, with some brands experiencing declines while others saw significant growth [1][2] Group 2 - In January, Geely brand sales totaled 217,438 units, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 3% [1] - The Galaxy series sold 82,990 units, down 11% year-on-year, while Lynk & Co. sales were 28,877 units, down 4% [1] - Zeekr brand performed exceptionally well with sales of 23,852 units in January, achieving a 100% year-on-year increase [1] - In terms of power types, sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were 68,012 units, down 15% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) saw a significant increase of 37%, totaling 56,240 units [1] - Geely's total export sales in January reached 60,506 units, marking a 121% year-on-year increase [1] - Proton brand achieved sales of 16,106 units in January 2026, a growth of approximately 36% compared to the previous year [1] - On February 1, Geely announced that total sales for January 2026 reached 270,167 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 1% [2]

Core Insights - Geely Automobile achieved a total vehicle sales of 3,024,567 units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 39% and exceeding the annual sales target of 3,000,000 units [1][4][10] - The company recorded a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales, reaching 1,687,800 units, which is a remarkable 90% year-on-year growth, setting a new record [1][4][7] - The Geely brand led the sales with 2,449,939 units, while the "China Star" series achieved sales of 1,214,100 units, surpassing the "one million China Star" target [1][11] Sales Performance - Total vehicle sales for Geely in 2025 were 3,024,567 units, a 39% increase from the previous year [1][4] - New energy vehicle sales reached 1,687,800 units, marking a 90% increase year-on-year [1][4][7] - The Geely brand's sales were 2,449,939 units, while the Lynk & Co brand sold 350,495 units, a 23% increase [4][17] - Zeekr brand sales totaled 224,133 units, with December 2025 deliveries reaching 30,267 units, a record high [21] Brand Performance - The "China Star" series achieved sales of 1,214,100 units, exceeding the target of one million [1][11] - The Galaxy brand saw a 150% increase in sales, reaching 235,807 units, and achieved the "one million Galaxy" sales target in just 29 months [13][14] - Lynk & Co's new energy family accounted for 65% of its total sales, with a 36% year-on-year growth [18][20] - Zeekr's new models, including the Zeekr 9 series, have strengthened its position in the luxury new energy market [21] International Expansion - Geely's overseas sales reached 420,097 units in 2025, successfully meeting its export sales target [23] - The company expanded into 13 new markets, including the UK, Italy, Brazil, and South Africa [23][26] - Lynk & Co has accelerated its global presence, establishing over 860 stores in more than 50 countries [24][26] - Zeekr has also entered over 50 countries, showcasing strong competitiveness in various international markets [25][26]

Core Insights - Zeekr Technology (ZK.N) reported significant growth in key metrics for Q3 2025, including sales, revenue, and gross profit, alongside progress in its merger and privatization with Geely Automobile [1][3] Sales Performance - Total deliveries reached 140,200 units in Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.1% [1] - Zeekr brand delivered 52,900 units, while Lynk & Co brand delivered 87,300 units, with new energy vehicles accounting for 72.4% of total sales [1] Financial Results - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 31.562 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.1% [2] - Vehicle sales revenue was 26.527 billion RMB, up 7.3% year-on-year and 15.8% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the launch of new and updated models [2] Profitability - Gross profit for Q3 2025 was 6.046 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 37.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.9% [3] - Overall gross margin stood at 19.2%, up 4 percentage points year-on-year, while vehicle gross margin was 15.6%, up 3 percentage points from the previous year [3] Research and Development - R&D expenditure for Q3 2025 was 2.743 billion RMB, with an R&D expense ratio of 8.7%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The merger with Lynk & Co has significantly improved R&D efficiency since the completion of the equity transfer in February [3] Merger and Privatization Progress - Geely Automobile plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr Technology, with the privatization process expected to complete by the end of the year [3] - Legal obstacles to the merger have been resolved, and the process is currently underway [3]

Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 89.2 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 27% [1] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 3.96 billion, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 25% and a year-on-year growth of 19% [1] - For the first nine months of 2025, the cumulative revenue reached 239.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 26% [2] - The core net profit attributable to shareholders for the first nine months of 2025 was 10.62 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 59% [2] Market Share and Sales - The market share for the first nine months of 2025 was 10.2%, which is a year-on-year increase of 28.1% [2] - In Q3 2025, total sales reached 761,000 units, marking an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 43% increase year-on-year [3] - The sales of new energy vehicles in Q3 2025 were 443,000 units, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15% [3] - For the first nine months of 2025, cumulative sales reached 2.7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 46% [5] - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles for the first nine months of 2025 were 1.168 million units, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 114% [5] Brand Performance - In Q3 2025, the Zeekr brand sold 53,000 units, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% [3] - The Lynk & Co brand achieved sales of 87,000 units in Q3 2025, also reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7% [3]

Core Insights - Geely Automobile Holdings Limited reported record sales figures for October, with passenger car sales reaching 307,133 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 35% and a month-on-month increase of 12% [1] - The company has maintained a continuous growth trend for eight consecutive months, both year-on-year and month-on-month [1] - Cumulatively, from January to October, Geely's total sales reached 2.477 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44%, with an annual sales target achievement rate of 83% [1] - In the new energy vehicle segment, Geely's sales (including Geely, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr brands) reached 177,882 units in October, representing a year-on-year increase of 64% and a month-on-month increase of 8% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Geely Automobile announced a share repurchase plan of HKD 2.3 billion, aiming to enhance shareholder value and demonstrate confidence in its business outlook [1][3]. Group 1: Share Repurchase Plan - The board of Geely believes that the share repurchase plan aligns with the best interests of the company and its shareholders, especially in the current uncertain market environment [3]. - The plan will be executed through an automated mechanism in the open market and is subject to certain conditions, including compliance with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange regulations [3]. - The company plans to repurchase up to 1.008 billion shares, representing 10% of the total shares issued as of the date of the 2025 annual general meeting [3]. Group 2: Sales Performance - In September, Geely's monthly sales reached 273,125 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 35% and a month-on-month increase of 9%, with overseas exports accounting for 40,665 units [3]. - The sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 165,201 units in September, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 81% and a month-on-month increase of 12%, achieving a historical high [3]. - The total sales for 2025, including all brands, are projected to reach 2,170,189 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 46% [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts from Guohai Securities view the company's fuel vehicle base as resilient, with expectations for growth driven by electrification, globalization, and premiumization [4]. - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the performance of new vehicles in the second half of 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, with the company's platform-based manufacturing cost advantages translating into the ability to continuously create popular models [4].

Group 1 - The company announced a share buyback plan of HKD 2.3 billion, which will be executed through an automated mechanism in the open market [2] - The board believes that the buyback plan aligns with the overall best interests of the company and its shareholders, showcasing confidence in the business outlook amid market uncertainties [5] - The plan is subject to certain conditions, including obtaining a waiver from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange regarding compliance with specific listing rules [5] Group 2 - In September, the company achieved a monthly sales volume of 273,125 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 35% and a month-on-month increase of 9%, with overseas exports accounting for 40,665 units [6] - The sales of new energy vehicles reached 165,201 units in September, marking an 81% year-on-year increase and a 12% month-on-month increase, setting a historical record [6] - The company’s total sales for 2025, including all brands, reached 2,170,189 units, reflecting a 46% year-on-year growth [6]