Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile, forecasting EPS for 2025-2027 to be 1.49, 1.75, and 2.12 RMB respectively, with a target price of 22.35 RMB (24.51 HKD) based on a PE average of 15 times for comparable companies [1] Sales Performance - In October, Geely's total sales reached 307,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.5% and a month-on-month increase of 12.5%, setting a new monthly sales record [2] - New energy vehicle sales for October were 177,900 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 63.6% and a month-on-month growth of 7.7% [2] - From January to October, total sales amounted to 2,477,300 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 44.3% [2] - The company is expected to outperform the industry average, with a strong likelihood of achieving its annual sales target of 3 million units [2] Brand Development - Geely's brand sales in October reached 245,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 43.9% and a month-on-month increase of 10.6% [3] - The Galaxy brand achieved sales of 127,500 units in October, marking a year-on-year increase of 100.8% and surpassing its annual sales target of 1 million units ahead of schedule [3] - The launch of new models, such as the 2026 Geely Xingyuan and Galaxy Xingyao 6, is expected to enhance the product matrix and contribute to future sales growth [3] - Geely signed an agreement with Renault to acquire 26.4% of Renault's Brazilian operations, which will facilitate the introduction of new energy vehicles in Brazil [3] Lynk & Co Brand Performance - Lynk & Co's sales in October reached 40,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 29.4% and a month-on-month increase of 22.2% [4] - The brand's weighted average price exceeded 200,000 RMB, with new energy vehicle sales accounting for 72.1% of total sales [4] - Key models such as Lynk & Co 900 and Lynk & Co 10EM-P have shown strong initial sales performance, indicating potential for future growth [4]

Core Insights - In October, Geely's passenger car sales reached 307,100 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 35% and a month-on-month increase of 12%, maintaining a dual growth trend for eight consecutive months [1] - Geely's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to October reached 1.345 million units, achieving 89% of its annual target of 1.5 million units [1] - Geely's Galaxy brand, launched this year, saw sales of 127,476 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 101%, contributing to a 58% share of new energy vehicles in Geely's total sales [1] Sales Performance - Geely's total sales in October were 307,100 units, with a year-on-year growth of 35% and a month-on-month growth of 12% [1] - The Galaxy brand achieved cumulative sales of 1,002,000 units in the first ten months, a year-on-year increase of 187%, surpassing its annual target ahead of schedule [1] New Energy Vehicle Strategy - The overall completion rate of sales targets for new energy vehicle companies is generally low, with most brands achieving less than 80% [1] - Geely's new energy vehicle sales accounted for 58% of its total sales, indicating a strong focus on this segment [1] International Expansion - Geely exported 41,000 vehicles in October, a year-on-year increase of 27.73%, marking the highest growth rate in a year [3] - The company aims to replicate its domestic success in overseas markets, having launched the Geely International EX5 in London, which is positioned as a competitive electric vehicle [3][4] - Geely plans to introduce 15 new models in the European market over the next five years and establish over 1,000 sales outlets [5] Efficiency and Cost Management - Geely is integrating resources across its brands, including Zeekr, Lynk & Co, and Galaxy, to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [6] - The company is leveraging external production capacity to minimize capital expenditures and avoid industry overcapacity risks [7] - Geely announced a share repurchase plan of HKD 2.3 billion to improve capital management efficiency [7]

Summary of Automotive Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The automotive industry is experiencing significant changes due to the cessation of subsidy policies in late October 2025, impacting sales dynamics for brands like BYD and Geely, which continue to launch new products to stimulate demand [1][2] - The transition to a new subsidy framework is expected to create a policy vacuum until after the Chinese New Year in 2026, with potential negative growth in the automotive market projected between 4% to 15% in Q1 2026 [1][7] Key Points and Arguments Subsidy Policies - The 2024 vehicle replacement policy is expected to generate approximately 3 million scrapped vehicles, with total subsidies nearing 100 billion yuan [1] - By 2025, applications for new subsidies have reached 10 million vehicles, with total subsidies estimated at 150 billion yuan, but a 30% reduction in subsidies is anticipated for 2026 [1][6] - The maximum subsidy per vehicle is expected to decrease to below 12,000 yuan in 2026 [6] Market Dynamics - The automotive market is currently in a "high open low walk" phase, with a surge in demand during the National Day holiday, followed by a decline in orders due to the end of national subsidies [2] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are expected to face pressure in the sub-150,000 yuan segment, necessitating improvements in product lines and dealership efficiency [3][11] Sales Projections - Q1 2026 is projected to require a year-on-year growth rate of over 15% to compensate for January's sales gap, with a monthly growth rate of 10% needed [9][10] - The overall market is expected to face significant pressure in the first half of 2026, requiring a strategic focus on product supply and policy support to avoid year-on-year declines [10] Competitive Landscape - The competition in the automotive market is expected to remain intense, influenced by factors such as channel efficiency and the timing of new product launches [13] - Domestic brands like Geely and BYD are expected to maintain a strong position, particularly in the high-end market, leveraging their technological and supply chain advantages [13][19] New Energy Vehicle Trends - The penetration rate of NEVs is projected to slow down, with an expected increase of around 5 percentage points in 2026, while electric vehicles will begin to incur purchase taxes [22] - The overall price range of vehicles is likely to increase, with a significant impact on the economy segment due to reduced subsidies and increased purchase taxes [22][23] Brand-Specific Insights - Geely's new models, including the Galaxy series, are set to launch in 2026, with plans to expand sales channels from 1,300 to 2,500 stores, aiming for a 20% or higher year-on-year growth [20] - Great Wall Motors is focusing on expanding its dealer network and launching new models, including the Ora brand, to enhance competitiveness and achieve steady growth [22][24] Additional Important Insights - The high-end market for NEVs is facing pressure from economic uncertainties, with a potential decline in market share for high-end brands [14] - The automotive industry is expected to see a shift in focus from price competition to enhancing product quality and operational capabilities [15][16] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the automotive industry, highlighting the impact of subsidy policies, market dynamics, competitive landscape, and brand-specific strategies.

Core Viewpoint - Geely Galaxy is experiencing significant sales growth, with expectations for continued strong performance in the coming year, driven by new product launches and strategic market positioning [2][6][9]. Production Capacity and Strategy - Geely Galaxy's sales reached 127,000 units in October, a 101% year-on-year increase, contributing to the group's revised annual sales target of 3 million vehicles [6][10]. - The company is repurposing the former SAIC-GM North Factory in Shenyang to supplement production capacity, as existing capacity is currently insufficient to meet demand [3][4]. - Geely has decided against building new factories, focusing instead on internal upgrades and collaborations to optimize existing production lines [13][15]. Product Development and Market Positioning - The Galaxy series, initially launched as a product line focused on new energy vehicles, has expanded significantly with the introduction of models like the Galaxy L7, E5, and others, which have gained popularity due to competitive pricing and features [6][8][9]. - The Galaxy Star Wish model has become a best-seller, achieving sales of 205,000 units in the first half of the year, positioning it as a market leader in its segment [8][9]. International Expansion - Geely's exports of new energy vehicles surged by 214% in the first nine months of the year, with significant growth in European and Latin American markets [15][16]. - The company is implementing a multi-brand strategy in international markets, with plans to establish a presence in the UK and other regions, leveraging local partnerships for distribution [16][17]. Future Outlook - Geely's management expresses optimism about the Galaxy's sales prospects for the next year, supported by a robust pipeline of new models and strategic market initiatives [9][10].

Summary of Automotive Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The automotive market in September showed a 20% month-over-month increase in customer traffic, demand, leads, orders, and delivery volumes compared to August, driven by new product launches and market demand [1][2] - Some brands like BYD experienced flat or slightly declining year-over-year sales, while brands like Geely saw growth [1][2] Key Insights - **Sales Performance**: During the double holiday period, mid-to-high-end sedans and new products performed well, with BYD's Dynasty series up 30% month-over-month and flat year-over-year, while the Ocean series grew 35% month-over-month and 10% year-over-year. Geely's Galaxy series saw a 50% month-over-month increase [1][4] - **Subsidy Impact**: The cessation of local replacement subsidies led to noticeable fluctuations in orders. The fourth batch of automotive consumption subsidies is expected to be implemented in mid-October to cover the shopping seasons of Double Eleven and Double Twelve, with expectations of year-over-year sales growth in October and November, while December may remain flat [1][5] - **Inventory Levels**: Inventory pressure has eased across brands, with BYD reducing inventory for five consecutive months. Major dealers have inventory levels of about 2.1 to 2.2 months, while smaller dealers are below 2 months. Geely and Leap Motor's inventory is also below 1.5 months. In contrast, fuel vehicle brands like Mercedes, BMW, and Audi have higher inventory levels exceeding 2 months [1][7] Market Dynamics - **Production Strategy**: Manufacturers do not have strong replenishment demands. BYD aims to assist dealers in overcoming high inventory and low profit situations. Geely maintains low inventory due to higher-than-expected sales. Overall, production strategies are moderately increasing, with strong terminal demand continuing a slow decline trend [1][8] - **Future Tax Policies**: The expected 5% refund on vehicle purchase tax for next year will significantly impact the average transaction price of new energy vehicles, estimated at around 160,000 yuan, while the impact on fuel vehicles priced below 120,000 yuan will be relatively minor. This, combined with trade-in policies, may lead to a 10% to 15% year-over-year sales decline in Q1 2026 [3][9] Competitive Landscape - **Market Competition**: Brands are focusing on capturing existing users, with companies like Huawei and Geely actively launching new models to maintain market growth. The demand for large five-seat and six-seat SUVs, especially plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles, is expected to be strong in Q4 2025 [14][15][17] - **New Product Launches**: Upcoming new energy products from major players like BYD and Geely are anticipated to enhance market competitiveness, particularly in the 200,000 to 250,000 yuan price range, competing with traditional fuel vehicles [19][23] Consumer Behavior - **User Preferences**: Consumers are increasingly making quick purchasing decisions due to rumors of subsidy policy changes, leading to reduced discounting and lower inventory levels across popular models [6][20] - **Market Trends**: The demand for large five-seat and six-seat models is driven by budget-conscious consumers, indicating significant potential in this market segment [26] Conclusion - The automotive industry is experiencing a dynamic shift with strong demand for new energy vehicles, particularly in the SUV segment. The upcoming policy changes and competitive strategies will play a crucial role in shaping market dynamics in the near future.

Core Viewpoint - The electric vehicle market is experiencing significant changes, with traditional and new players facing varying degrees of success and challenges, leading to a reshaping of market dynamics and competition. Group 1: Sales Performance - In December last year, Li Auto achieved a remarkable sales figure of 58,000 units, but by August 2025, its sales plummeted to 28,529 units, placing it at the bottom of the "Wei Xiaoli" rankings [1] - In August, 14 major automakers reported sales, with a median sales figure of 40,486 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4,717 units, although there was a month-on-month decline [2] - BYD maintained its dominance with sales of 371,500 units in August, significantly outpacing competitors [2][23] Group 2: Market Segmentation - The market is divided into three tiers: BYD leads as a standalone leader, followed by traditional automakers like Geely, SAIC, Changan, and Chery in the second tier, while new forces and weaker performers fall into the third tier [2][4] - The number of brands achieving monthly sales over 10,000 has increased, with notable performances from Geely's Galaxy, Leap Motor, and NIO [6] Group 3: Brand Dynamics - Geely's Galaxy brand has become a strong contender, achieving over 100,000 units in monthly sales for three consecutive months [6] - NIO's sales surged to 16,434 units in August, marking a significant recovery [21] - Li Auto's new model, the i8, faced challenges due to safety concerns, leading to a price adjustment shortly after its launch [13][22] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape is shifting, with previously strong players like Li Auto and Aion facing declines, while brands like NIO, Xpeng, and Leap Motor are gaining traction [11][32] - BYD's sales growth is slowing, and it faces increasing pressure from competitors in the second tier [4][25] Group 5: International Expansion - Companies are increasingly focusing on international markets, with BYD exporting vehicles to Europe and establishing assembly plants in Malaysia [16][17] - Chery has emerged as a leader in overseas sales, delivering 129,400 units in August [17] Group 6: Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue evolving, with companies like Li Auto aiming to regain momentum through new model launches and strategic adjustments [22][32] - The overall market dynamics indicate that no company can claim stability, as competition remains fierce and unpredictable [32]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company leverages platform-based manufacturing and maintains competitive advantages in a fiercely competitive market. It focuses on high-value products, extreme cost performance, and product strength, successfully creating several popular models. The high-end brands Zeekr and Lynk & Co have gained considerable audience recognition due to unique product designs, strong electric systems, and exceptional safety features, with high-priced models expected to become significant profit sources for the company [2][3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenue of CNY 378.38 billion, CNY 449.38 billion, and CNY 521.76 billion from 2025 to 2027, representing year-on-year growth of 57.5%, 18.8%, and 16.1% respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be CNY 16.66 billion, CNY 18.78 billion, and CNY 22.98 billion during the same period, with year-on-year growth of 0.19%, 12.67%, and 22.38% respectively. The EPS is expected to be CNY 1.7, CNY 1.9, and CNY 2.3, corresponding to PE ratios of 11.0, 9.8, and 8.0 times [3]. Sales and Financial Data - In 2024, the company is projected to achieve a total sales volume of 2.177 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%. The breakdown includes 1.29 million fuel vehicles and 890,000 new energy vehicles, with significant growth in the latter. The sales target for 2025 is set at 3 million vehicles, with the Galaxy brand expected to contribute significantly [11][22][28]. - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of CNY 150.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 9.29 billion, a decrease of 13.9% compared to the previous year, but the core net profit showed a significant increase of 101.7% [16][18]. Brand Integration and Strategy - The company has initiated a brand integration strategy, consolidating several brands to enhance operational efficiency and reduce internal competition. The Geometry brand has been integrated into the Galaxy brand, and Lynk & Co has merged with Zeekr, which is expected to streamline operations and improve market competitiveness [31][34][35]. Product Matrix and Market Position - The company has developed a multi-brand strategy with distinct product matrices for Galaxy, Lynk & Co, and Zeekr, targeting various market segments. The Galaxy brand focuses on mid-to-high-end new energy vehicles, while Lynk & Co aims at the high-end market, and Zeekr is positioned as a luxury brand. This strategic positioning is expected to enhance market share and profitability [45][49][52]. Export Growth - The company's export volume reached 414,500 vehicles in 2024, representing a nearly 5.7-fold increase since 2020, with the export ratio rising from 5.5% in 2020 to 19.0% in 2024. This growth in exports is becoming a crucial driver for overall sales improvement [28][30].

Core Insights - Geely Automobile Holdings Limited reported a record high revenue of 150.3 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27% [2] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.29 billion yuan, with core net profit rising by 102% to 6.66 billion yuan after excluding foreign exchange losses and other non-core items [2] - Total cash levels increased to 58.8 billion yuan, indicating a strong financial position [2] Sales Performance - Geely's total sales reached 1.409 million units in the first half of 2025, a 47% year-on-year growth, surpassing the market average [2] - The market share exceeded 10% for the first time, with new energy vehicle (NEV) sales reaching 725,000 units, a 126% increase [3] - The annual sales target was raised from 2.71 million to 3 million units based on better-than-expected market performance [2][5] New Energy Growth - The NEV segment saw explosive growth, with a penetration rate of 51.5%, positioning Geely among the top brands in the NEV market [3] - The Galaxy series, now an independent brand, experienced a 232% increase in sales, totaling 548,000 units in the first half [3] - High-end luxury brands Zeekr and Lynk & Co also performed well, with Zeekr selling 90,740 units and Lynk & Co achieving 154,137 units in the same period [3] Technological Advancements - Geely has established a leading smart and electrification technology system, focusing on AI integration [4] - The company launched the "Smart Geely 2025" strategy, aiming to release the industry's first "smart car full-domain AI" technology system by 2025 [4] - The Starry AI Cloud Power 2.0 and advanced battery technologies enhance product competitiveness, with the new battery system passing 36 extreme safety tests [5] Future Outlook - Geely plans to launch five new NEV products in the second half of 2025, further enhancing its market presence [5] - The "One Geely" strategy aims to deepen synergies within the company, boosting its global competitiveness in the smart NEV sector [5]

Group 1: Automotive Market Overview - In July, the total automobile sales in China reached 2.593 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.7% [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) exceeded 50% for the first time since December last year, with NEV sales accounting for 51.4% of total new car sales in July [3] - From January to July, NEV sales reached 8.232 million units, a year-on-year growth of 39.2% [3] Group 2: NEV Production and Battery Data - In July, NEV production was 1.243 million units, and sales were 1.262 million units, with year-on-year increases of 26.3% and 27.4% respectively [3] - The total battery production in July was 133.8 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 44.3% [3] - The installed capacity of power batteries in July was 55.9 GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [5] Group 3: Company Developments - Geely Automobile reported a revenue of 150.3 billion yuan for the first half of the year, a 27% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 9.29 billion yuan [9] - Xpeng Motors signed an expanded strategic cooperation agreement with Volkswagen Group to integrate their electronic and electrical architecture into both electric and hybrid models in the Chinese market [13] - Great Wall Motors announced the pre-sale of its new Tank 500 model, priced between 360,000 and 388,800 yuan, featuring advanced driver assistance systems [6][8]

Core Insights - Geely Automobile has reported impressive performance in the first half of the year despite increasing industry competition [1][2] Financial Performance - Geely achieved a record revenue of 150.285 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 27%, with vehicle revenue reaching 134.6 billion yuan, up 28% [3] - The company sold 1.4092 million vehicles, marking a 47% increase year-on-year, with fuel vehicle sales at 684,000 units (up 8 percentage points) and new energy vehicle sales at 725,000 units (up 126%) [4] - The gross profit margin remained stable at 16.4%, slightly down from 16.7% year-on-year, attributed to uneven growth rates of different products [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 9.29 billion yuan, with core net profit at 6.66 billion yuan, a significant increase of 102% year-on-year [9] Strategic Developments - The "One Geely" strategy has been pivotal in enhancing internal resource integration and overall competitiveness [10] - Geely is accelerating the integration of its brands, with Zeekr and Lynk & Co forming a dual-driven growth model in the high-end luxury market [4][11] - The company plans to acquire the remaining shares of Zeekr, with the transaction expected to cost less than 30% of 2.4 billion USD, supported by cash reserves [11] Market Expansion - Geely aims to increase its annual sales target from 2.71 million to 3 million units, reflecting an 11% upward adjustment [6] - The company is focusing on international market expansion, with a goal to increase export sales by 30% in the second half of the year [13][16] - Geely's export sales in the first half were 184,000 units, showing a decline, primarily due to a significant drop in the Eastern European market [13][16]