证券研究报告 可选消费 海外看中国：高端消费复苏启示录 可选消费 增持 (维持) 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 惠普 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090006 SFC No. BSE005 孙丹阳 研究员 SAC No. S0570519010001 sundanyang@htsc.com SFC No. BQQ696 +(86) 21 2897 2038 张霜凝* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070015 zhangshuangning@htsc.com 华泰研究 复盘 2025 年海外集团在华经营表现，我们认为我国高端消费初显回暖信号。 以 LVMH 为例，FY3Q25 中国区销售额回正，录得中-高个位数同比增长 （vs1H25 亚太区：-9%），改善趋势逐步显现。品类上看，消费者重视价 值与体验，从面子走向里子，高端服务消费领先复苏，高端商品表现分化。 拉长看 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance, General Administration of Customs, and State Taxation Administration have announced a "zero tariff" policy for inbound goods consumed by residents of Hainan Free Trade Port, effective immediately [2] - During the upcoming Spring Festival travel period, cross-regional passenger flow is expected to reach 9.5 billion trips, setting a new historical record [2] - The duty-free sector is anticipated to see a return to stable profit margins, while the restaurant and hotel sectors are expected to benefit from overall industry value enhancement [1][3] Duty-Free Sector - Hainan has approved 15 duty-free operators, including 6 domestic and 3 foreign companies, with 202 product categories primarily focused on daily necessities [3] - Since the implementation of the new duty-free policy, shopping amounts have exceeded 10 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 25.32% [3] - The first month of duty-free sales in Hainan reached 4.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [3] Hotel Sector - The hotel sector is expected to stabilize and improve by 2026, with a focus on enhancing the overall value chain and operational capabilities [1][7] - The hotel market is experiencing a gradual recovery, with RevPAR showing slight improvements, particularly in tourist-heavy areas like Sanya [7][8] - The overall hotel supply is stabilizing, with a focus on optimizing supply chain and operational efficiency [9] Restaurant Sector - The restaurant industry is entering a phase of supply-side optimization, with a focus on enhancing operational efficiency and brand strength [10][12] - The competitive landscape remains intense, with leading brands benefiting from supply chain advantages and operational efficiencies [11][13] - The overall chain rate in the restaurant sector is steadily increasing, particularly in the ready-to-drink beverage segment [13] Tourism and Leisure Sector - The tourism sector is a key driver for domestic demand, with policies expected to continue supporting growth through 2026 [15][16] - The upcoming Spring Festival is projected to see significant increases in travel bookings, with a year-on-year growth of over 30% in service reservations [14] - The government aims to accelerate the development of an international tourism consumption center in Hainan [4][5] Cross-Border E-Commerce Sector - The cross-border e-commerce sector is expected to benefit from the overall quality and brand effect of Chinese manufacturing, with significant market share growth in overseas markets [19] - The U.S. is entering a rate-cutting cycle, which may positively impact the cross-border e-commerce landscape [19] - Companies are adapting to new competitive environments, leveraging strong supply chains and product quality to drive growth [19][20]

Core Viewpoint - The expansion of duty-free shops at entry ports in China is a strategic move by the government to enhance consumer experience, stimulate domestic consumption, and promote regional development through the establishment of 41 new duty-free stores across various locations [4][5][6][8]. Group 1: Expansion of Duty-Free Shops - The Chinese government has announced the establishment of 41 new duty-free shops at entry ports, including airports, waterway, and land ports, to enhance consumer access and fill regional gaps [5][6][14]. - The new duty-free shops will be located in various provinces, including Hubei, Hunan, Fujian, and Guangxi, ensuring coverage across eastern, central, and western regions of China [6][12]. - The initiative aims to provide consumers with more shopping options and competitive prices, thereby increasing the attractiveness of domestic shopping compared to overseas purchases [12][14]. Group 2: Consumer Benefits - The expansion allows consumers to shop for duty-free goods conveniently upon entry into China, addressing previous limitations where shopping was primarily restricted to departure points [5][9]. - The new stores will offer a diverse range of products, including international brands and local Chinese cultural products, catering to various consumer preferences [12]. - The initiative is expected to stimulate consumer spending and enhance the overall shopping experience for both domestic and international travelers [10][12]. Group 3: Economic and Regional Development - The establishment of these duty-free shops is seen as a tool for stabilizing foreign trade and expanding domestic demand, contributing to economic growth [7][12]. - The initiative is designed to attract both returning Chinese travelers and international tourists, thereby increasing inbound consumption and supporting local economies [10][11]. - The duty-free shops are positioned to enhance the logistics, tourism, and cultural industries, creating a more integrated economic ecosystem around port cities [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Accumulate" investment rating to the company [11]. Core Insights - China Duty Free Group has evolved from a policy-driven company to a global retail giant, capitalizing on domestic market opportunities and reshaping the global duty-free landscape [11][36]. - The company ranks second globally in duty-free sales, benefiting from high profit margins due to its unique licensing and channel resources [11][26]. - The report highlights significant business volatility influenced by reliance on specific regions and consumer segments, currency fluctuations, and the rise of cross-border e-commerce [11][53][58]. Summary by Sections Market Data - As of February 5, 2026, the closing price is 92.47 yuan, with a market capitalization of 191.31 billion yuan and a price-to-book ratio of 3.44 [2]. Financial Performance - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 53.48 billion yuan, 62.52 billion yuan, and 64.58 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.92 billion yuan, 4.96 billion yuan, and 5.54 billion yuan [9]. Business Model - The company's profitability is driven by its monopoly on scarce licenses and channel resources, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge in a market characterized by high operating costs for international peers [26][29]. - The customer base is primarily concentrated among high-end Chinese consumers, enabling precise demand forecasting and strong bargaining power with brands [27]. Competitive Landscape - The report compares China Duty Free Group with international competitors, noting its unique position in the domestic market while still being in the early stages of global expansion [11][17]. - The company faces challenges from increasing competition and the need to adapt to market-driven dynamics as policy advantages diminish [61][66]. Historical Context - The company has undergone significant transformations since its establishment in 1984, evolving from a state-owned entity to a major player in the global duty-free market [30][32]. - The rise of the middle-income group in China has significantly boosted demand for luxury goods, further enhancing the company's market position [37][38]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to transition from a policy-driven model to one focused on market competitiveness and global expansion, necessitating improvements in operational efficiency and customer experience [61][67].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Accumulate" investment rating to the company [11]. Core Insights - The company has evolved from a policy-driven entity to a commercial giant leveraging domestic market advantages, becoming the second-largest player in the global duty-free market [11][20]. - The company's profitability is attributed to its unique access to scarce licenses and channel resources, distinguishing it from typical travel retailers [26]. - The report highlights the significant volatility in the company's financial performance, influenced by reliance on specific regions and consumer segments, currency fluctuations, and the rise of cross-border e-commerce [11][53]. Summary by Sections Market Data - As of February 5, 2026, the closing price is 92.47 yuan, with a market capitalization of 191.31 billion yuan and a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.50 [2][9]. Financial Performance - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 53.48 billion, 62.52 billion, and 64.58 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.92 billion, 4.96 billion, and 5.54 billion yuan [9]. - The company’s gross margin stands at 32.54%, with a return on equity of 5.48% and a debt-to-asset ratio of 18.34% [3]. Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned against international giants like Dufry and Lagardère, with a focus on domestic market expansion while beginning to explore international opportunities [11][17]. - In 2023, the company achieved a sales volume of 9.649 billion USD, ranking second globally in the duty-free sector [20]. Strategic Insights - The company is undergoing a transformation from a policy-driven model to one that emphasizes market-driven and global strategies, aiming to enhance its competitive edge [61]. - The report emphasizes the need for the company to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and market dynamics, particularly in the high-end luxury segment [62][63].

Core Insights - The 2025 China Personal Luxury Goods Report by Bain & Company indicates a contraction of 3% to 5% in the mainland personal luxury goods market, showing a significant easing compared to the sharp decline in 2024 [1] - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards high-cost performance products that balance quality, uniqueness, and practicality, with a preference for experiential consumption such as travel and health [1] - The report notes that the high-value customer (VIC) group remains the core driver of the luxury goods market, while younger potential consumers are entering the luxury market with a more cautious and delayed approach [1] Market Performance - Different luxury categories show varied performance: beauty and personal care products are recovering with a growth of 4% to 7%, while apparel is declining by 5% to 8%, leather goods by 8% to 11%, watches by 14% to 17%, and jewelry is expected to decline by 0% to 5% compared to 2024 [1] Consumption Trends - The share of overseas luxury goods consumption has significantly decreased in 2025, with 65% of luxury consumption occurring in mainland China and 35% abroad, indicating an increase in consumption return [2] - Mainland consumers' enthusiasm for outbound travel has not diminished their willingness to purchase luxury goods domestically, aided by reduced price gaps between mainland and major overseas markets [2] - The rise of local Chinese luxury brands, particularly in beauty and personal luxury categories, is emphasized, with these brands leveraging culturally relevant product designs and competitive pricing strategies [2] Competitive Advantages - Local brands are building differentiated advantages through a deeper understanding of local consumer preferences, implementing a "China-first" customer outreach strategy, and enhancing access to local quality resources and materials to establish price advantages [3] - Despite ongoing market volatility and uncertainty, Bain forecasts moderate growth for the Chinese personal luxury goods market in 2026, supported by the expanding middle-income group and improving consumer confidence [3]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth in consumer spending in Hainan's free trade port, particularly during the New Year holiday, with a reported 128.9% year-on-year increase in duty-free shopping amounting to 7.12 billion yuan [1] - The success of Hainan's duty-free shopping is attributed to improved customs procedures and expanded product offerings, which enhance price competitiveness and consumer satisfaction [1][2] - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a favorable consumption environment through policy optimization and innovative experiences to attract both local and international consumers [2][3] Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumer Behavior - Hainan's duty-free shopping has seen a remarkable increase, with 7.12 billion yuan in sales during the New Year holiday, reflecting a 128.9% growth compared to the previous year [1] - The implementation of a "one line open, one line controlled" system has improved customs efficiency, allowing for quicker access to international brands and a broader range of zero-tariff products [1][2] - The shift from a tourist-exclusive shopping model to one that includes local residents has significantly boosted domestic consumption potential [2] Group 2: Policy and Governance - Continuous adjustments to the duty-free policy have allowed local residents to purchase duty-free items throughout the year, enhancing the shopping experience [2] - The article discusses the need for effective governance to manage the increased flow of people and goods post-closure, highlighting the use of smart regulatory measures to ensure consumer safety and satisfaction [3] - Hainan's commitment to creating a robust legal framework and business environment is seen as essential for sustaining consumer confidence and economic growth [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The article suggests that the full closure operation is just the beginning, with ongoing efforts needed to refine service systems and create a more consumer-friendly environment [4] - Hainan's identity as a destination is reinforced by its natural beauty and the appeal of its duty-free shopping, which is expected to continue attracting visitors [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the vibrant development of Hainan Free Trade Port, highlighting its significant growth in consumer spending and tourism, particularly during the New Year holiday, with a reported shopping amount of 7.12 billion yuan, a 128.9% increase year-on-year [21][22][24] - The implementation of a "one line open, one line control" policy has improved customs efficiency, allowing for a significant expansion of the zero-tariff product list, which now includes a wider range of goods beyond luxury items, enhancing price competitiveness [23][24][25] - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a favorable consumption environment through innovative policies and improved governance, which has led to increased consumer confidence and spending [17][24][26] Group 2 - The article notes that Hainan's appeal as a shopping destination has shifted from international travel to local consumption, driven by policy innovations and enhanced shopping experiences [22][24] - It highlights the integration of cultural and entertainment events with shopping experiences, such as music festivals and sports events, which have become key attractions for tourists [24][25] - The article concludes that continuous exploration and adaptation of policies are necessary to maintain the momentum of Hainan's economic growth and consumer engagement [25][26]

Core Insights - The article highlights the robust growth of consumer spending in Hainan Free Trade Port, driven by improved business environment and legal protections, leading to increased confidence among consumers and businesses [1][3] Group 1: Consumer Spending and Market Dynamics - During the New Year holiday, Hainan's duty-free shopping saw a significant increase, with a total spending of 712 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 128.9% [1] - The implementation of a "one line open, two lines controlled" policy has enhanced customs efficiency, allowing for quicker clearance of imported goods and a broader range of zero-tariff products, thus improving price competitiveness [1][2] Group 2: Policy Optimization and Consumer Experience - Continuous adjustments to the duty-free policy now allow local residents to purchase duty-free items throughout the year, enhancing local consumption potential [2] - The expansion of international access through visa-free entry for citizens from 86 countries and the opening of the "seventh freedom" has broadened Hainan's international appeal, stimulating consumer enthusiasm [2] Group 3: Governance and Regulatory Framework - The article emphasizes the need for effective governance to manage the increased flow of people and goods post-closure, advocating for smart regulatory measures to ensure both openness and control [3] - Initiatives such as credit-based supervision for duty-free enterprises and the establishment of a rapid response consumer protection mechanism are highlighted as key innovations to enhance consumer confidence [3]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "免保衔接" (Duty-Free and Bonded Goods Integration) business model in Zhuhai Gaolan Port Comprehensive Bonded Zone is seen as a significant innovation to promote consumption return and enhance trade facilitation levels [1][3]. Group 1 - The "免保衔接" model allows companies to stock goods in a bonded state within the zone and flexibly convert them to duty-free products for sale based on domestic duty-free store sales or cross-border e-commerce orders [3][5]. - This model significantly improves product turnover efficiency and reduces costs related to inventory and capital for enterprises due to its closed-loop design [3]. - Zhuhai Duty-Free Group, a leading player in the domestic duty-free industry, is one of the first practitioners of this model, having invested over 20 million yuan to build a "免保一体" (Integrated Duty-Free and Bonded) center warehouse [3][5]. Group 2 - Since its operational closure in June 2023, the Gaolan Port Comprehensive Bonded Zone has implemented several regulatory innovations, with the "免保衔接" model being a key example of converting policy advantages into practical benefits for enterprises [3][5]. - The model directly supports the national strategy of attracting foreign consumption back to China, providing a more flexible and cost-effective pathway for international brands to enter the Chinese market [3][5]. - The next steps for the Gaolan Port Comprehensive Bonded Zone include attracting related industry chain enterprises and continuously enhancing trade facilitation levels [5].