社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 14 日 上机免税店招标结果点评 中免与外资免税商共同中标，租金形式进一步优化 上海机场公布进出境免税店中标候选名单，中免集团与杜福睿最终中标。引 入外资一定程度上加剧竞争，有望激发运营商的经营活力；租金协议优化为 保底+低提成模式，有望激励免税商做大口岸渠道的销售规模，摊薄成本费 用，和机场方实现双赢。同时看好国家大力提振消费，重视内需的背景下免 税行业的发展。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 海南封关在即，各渠道政策持续加码，核心口岸租金协议优化，免税行 业迎来多重利好。建议关注全渠道免税龙头中国中免；首都机场开标在 即，王府井作为北京国资，也有望参与竞标，并拓展口岸渠道业务。 评级面临的主要风险 消费复苏不及预期，政策推进或落地不及预期，市场竞争加剧。 相关研究报告 《社服视角学习中央经济工作会议精神的体 会》20251212 《社会服务行业 2026 年投资策略》20251209 《社会服务行业双周报》20251202 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 证券分析师：宋环翔 社会服务 huanxiang.song@bocich ...

Summary of Hainan Duty-Free Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The duty-free industry in Hainan is experiencing significant benefits from the duty-free policy, particularly for island residents who can purchase 15 categories of goods without limits within a year, stimulating demand from both residents and buyers [2][4][15] - In November, the overall sales growth in Hainan's duty-free market reached approximately 25% year-on-year, with island residents contributing about 15% to the sales [2][15] Key Insights and Arguments - **Sales Performance**: In November, Hainan's duty-free sales are expected to reach 2.6 billion yuan, showing over 30% growth compared to the previous year [4] - **Product Categories**: - Gold jewelry saw the highest growth rate of over 20% in November, while 3C electronic products grew by about 15% [5] - The sales distribution for January to October 2025 was as follows: cosmetics 12.377 billion yuan, luxury goods 5.6324 billion yuan, 3C electronics 903 million yuan, and liquor 1.915 billion yuan [9] - **Gross Margin**: The overall gross margin for the duty-free products is maintained at around 35%, with variations across different categories [9][8] - **Supply Chain Management**: Monthly ordering is based on a 90-day sales cycle, with safety stock for new products set at 120 days. The purchasing scale for peak seasons is expected to increase by 20%-30% year-on-year [17][19] Regulatory Environment - Customs regulations on purchasing have tightened, including the implementation of traceability systems and increased monitoring at ports, which could impact the market as approximately 70% of sales come from buyers [13][14] - The future of the gold category's operational model, which involves exporting and then importing, presents growth opportunities but is subject to potential regulatory tightening [11] Consumer Behavior - After the relaxation of policies for island residents, their shopping amounts and frequency increased by about 5%, but their overall contribution remains smaller compared to the total market growth [15] - The proportion of large purchase groups (buyers) in the market is between 50% to 70%, influenced by customs regulations and product structure changes [16] Future Outlook - The duty-free industry is expected to see continued growth driven by returning Japanese customers, although this effect may not be sustainable long-term [23] - Emerging categories like gold and domestic electronic products are anticipated to become significant growth points [23] - Potential policy changes, such as increasing the current spending limit from 100,000 yuan to 120,000 yuan, could further stimulate the market [24] Additional Insights - The cost of goods in Hainan is approximately 10% lower than in the domestic market, with specific categories like cosmetics and luxury goods having significant price advantages [3][21] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost island residents' consumption as they aim to utilize their annual quotas before they reset [29] - The new Haikou Duty-Free City project aims to enhance shopping convenience and attract more customers, despite currently operating at a loss [30][31] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Hainan duty-free industry, highlighting sales performance, regulatory impacts, consumer behavior, and future growth prospects.

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that Hainan's duty-free sales reached 506 million yuan from November 1 to 7, representing a year-on-year growth of 35%, with shopping visits increasing by 3.4% to 73,000, significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by new duty-free shopping policies [1] Industry Summary - The optimistic outlook for China's duty-free industry is primarily due to the new policies in Hainan and a low base effect, with expectations for a positive sales trend in the fourth quarter and accelerated growth from 2026 to 2027 [1] - China Duty Free Group is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of these developments, with airport duty-free sales anticipated to recover steadily due to the expansion of duty-free areas and double-digit growth in international passenger traffic [1] - Policy relaxation, along with increased retail space and product variety, will act as catalysts for the growth of China's duty-free sales [1]

此外，今年12月18日，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关运作。中信建投（601066）指出，海南封关即 将落地，海南有望迎来对外开放新篇章。离岛免税政策依旧是海南消费市场核心支柱，岛民即买即提及 国际旅客纳入将推动离岛免税恢复发展，出入境免税政策打通市内免税店堵点，免税行业迎来新的五年 发展。 中国中免（601888）(01880)涨超6%，截至发稿，涨6.01%，报75元，成交额1.2亿港元。 消息面上，从海口海关获悉，海南离岛免税新政实施首周(11月1日到7日)，海口海关共监管免税购物金 额5.06亿元(人民币，下同)，购物人数7.29万人次，同比分别增长34.86%、3.37%。方正证券认为，海南 离岛免税销售情况边际改善，近期免税政策持续优化，行业拐点有望显现。中免作为免税龙头，率先享 受基本面复苏及估值催化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group (01880) saw a stock increase of over 6%, closing at 75 HKD with a trading volume of 1.2 billion HKD, driven by positive developments in Hainan's duty-free shopping policies [1] Group 1: Duty-Free Sales Performance - In the first week of the new Hainan duty-free policy (November 1 to 7), the total duty-free shopping amount reached 5.06 billion RMB, with 72,900 shoppers, representing year-on-year increases of 34.86% and 3.37% respectively [1] - The sales situation in Hainan's duty-free sector is showing marginal improvement, with ongoing optimization of duty-free policies indicating a potential turning point for the industry [1] Group 2: Future Prospects - The official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port's full closure operation is set for December 18, which is expected to open a new chapter in Hainan's external openness [1] - The duty-free policy remains a core pillar of Hainan's consumer market, with the inclusion of international travelers expected to boost the recovery and development of duty-free shopping [1] - The integration of outbound and inbound duty-free policies is anticipated to resolve existing bottlenecks in city-based duty-free stores, paving the way for a new five-year growth phase for the duty-free industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9] Core Views - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 28.151 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6 billion yuan, down 20.81% year-on-year [2][6] - For the second quarter alone, revenue was 11.405 billion yuan, a decline of 8.45% year-on-year, with a net profit of 662 million yuan, down 32.21% year-on-year [2][6] - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 4.292 billion yuan, 4.364 billion yuan, and 4.520 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to current price-to-earnings ratios of 33.22, 32.67, and 31.54 [2][6] Revenue Analysis - Revenue from Hainan and Shanghai showed declines, with Hainan's revenue at 15.031 billion yuan (down 10.45% year-on-year) and Shanghai's at 6.870 billion yuan (down 19.18% year-on-year) [6] - The company's market share in Hainan's duty-free sector increased by nearly 1 percentage point, indicating strong operational capabilities despite overall revenue declines [6] - Duty-free revenue was 20.343 billion yuan (down 6.13% year-on-year), while taxable revenue was 7.189 billion yuan (down 21.50% year-on-year) [6] Profitability Insights - The overall gross margin slightly decreased to 32.8%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 10.3%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The increase in expenses was noted, with sales, management, and R&D expenses showing slight increases [6] Industry Outlook - The duty-free and tourism retail sectors are expected to benefit from the positive outlook of the tourism industry, which is a significant part of China's economy and a key driver of domestic demand [6] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the duty-free industry, leveraging its advantages in channels, scale, and brand management [6]