我们正处于全球货币与财政双宽松周期，聪明资金已经悄悄布局把握新周期的机遇。 前 9 个月内地人在港买房总额近 1000 亿港元，其中香港豪宅新买家超 8 成为内地人。阿里巴巴前 CEO 张勇更是豪掷 5354 万港元买入一套四房豪 宅。 楼市依然是大部分人关心的核心资产，乃至投资消费和经济信心的先行指标。香港豪宅市场的反弹和复苏，正是聪明的 "大钱"提前布局的强烈信号。 一轮新的周期正在人群迷惘之际悄悄酝酿。 全球宽松周期信号显现 数年后回过头看， 2025 年是新一轮宽松周期的开始，但很多人都还没意识到这一点。 根据美国银行的统计显示，过去两年全球央行的降息次数已超过了 2007-09 年全球金融危机期间。尽管当前中性利率仍然在较高的位置，但 2026 年仍 有较强降息空间和预期。机构预计美联储在未来 12-18 个月降息空间还有 100BP ，中性利率有望回归到 3%-3.25% 昨夜的美联储会议纪要显示， 12 月 1 日起美联储将结束量化紧缩，停止对市场抛售资产，甚至在 2026 年可能重启量化宽松，来对冲美国如今的就业下 滑压力。 QE 对全球资产来说都是一件好消息，这意味着流动性宽松的利好将助推资 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - The Hong Kong property market remains cautious in the first half of 2025, with no significant measures introduced in the latest government budget [1] - Recent reductions in actual mortgage interest rates and increased cash rebates from banks have slightly improved the residential market sentiment, although the non-residential property market continues to be affected by investor sell-offs [1][2] Group 2: New Property Sales and Inventory - The high inventory issue of new properties persists, with expected lower transaction volumes in 2025 compared to 2024 due to the high base effect from government measures [2] - Approximately 20,900 and 20,100 residential units are projected to be completed in 2025 and 2026, respectively, while the total first-hand transaction volume for 2024 is estimated at around 16,900 units [2] Group 3: Secondary Market Dynamics - The secondary market is stabilizing as some buyers enter due to a 30% drop in prices from previous peaks, lower interest rates, and government stamp duty relaxations, but prices remain influenced by the primary market [2] - The residential rental market is benefiting from increased demand from international students and skilled professionals, leading to a positive trend in overall rental prices [2] Group 4: Luxury and Commercial Property Market - The luxury market shows signs of demand absorption with nearly 1,000 transactions for large units in the first five months of 2025, supported by mainland buyers due to the government's investment immigration policy [3] - The overall commercial property market remains weak, with low-priced transactions and rising yields affecting property appreciation potential, although a slight improvement in the office market is expected in the second half of 2025 [4] Group 5: Student Accommodation Opportunities - The severe supply-demand imbalance in student accommodation presents an opportunity to convert underutilized commercial properties into student housing, supported by a pilot program from the Hong Kong Development Bureau and Education Bureau [4]